截至7月31日午间收盘，沪指跌0.68%，深成指跌0.45%，创业板指涨0.43%。沪深两市半日成交额超1.1万亿元。从板块来看，AI硬件 股再度大涨，中际旭创等多股再创历史新高。AI应用股走强，易点天下20CM涨停。创新药概念股持续活跃，康缘药业等多股涨停。 下跌方面，钢铁、煤炭等周期股集体调整，安阳钢铁跌超5%。智谱AI、液冷服务器、CPO、创新药等板块涨幅居前，钢铁、煤炭、 油气、有色金属等板块跌幅居前。 上证报中国证券网讯 截至7月31日午间收盘，沪指跌0.68%，深成指跌0.45%，创业板指涨0.43%。沪深两市半日成交额超1.1万亿元。 从板块来看，AI硬件股再度大涨，中际旭创等多股再创历史新高。AI应用股走强，易点天下20CM涨停。创新药概念股持续活跃，康 缘药业等多股涨停。下跌方面，钢铁、煤炭等周期股集体调整，安阳钢铁跌超5%。智谱AI、液冷服务器、CPO、创新药等板块涨幅 居前，钢铁、煤炭、油气、有色金属等板块跌幅居前。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.68% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 0.45%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.43% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 562 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][6] Sector Performance - AI hardware stocks surged, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang hitting new historical highs. AI application stocks also strengthened, exemplified by Yidian Tianxia reaching the daily limit [2][3] - Innovative drug concept stocks remained active, with companies like Kangyuan Pharmaceutical also hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, cyclical stocks such as steel and coal experienced collective adjustments, with Anyang Steel dropping over 5% [2][3] Stock Movement - A total of over 3,400 stocks declined in the market, with 1,876 stocks rising and 114 remaining unchanged [4] - The limit-up performance showed a 71% sealing rate, indicating a strong interest in certain stocks despite the overall market decline [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.68%, while AI hardware and innovative pharmaceutical stocks saw significant gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.45%, whereas the ChiNext Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - AI hardware stocks surged again, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang reaching new historical highs [1] - AI application stocks also strengthened, exemplified by Yidian Tianxia hitting the daily limit of a 20% increase [1] - Innovative pharmaceutical stocks remained active, with companies such as Kangyuan Pharmaceutical achieving daily limit gains [1] - Conversely, cyclical stocks in sectors like steel and coal underwent collective adjustments, with Anyang Steel dropping over 5% [1] - The top-performing sectors included AI, liquid cooling servers, CPO, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while sectors like steel, coal, oil and gas, and non-ferrous metals faced declines [1]

Group 1 - UBS highlights the upcoming earnings season for small and mid-cap companies focused on AI application software, recommending increased allocation to Applovin (APP.US) and The Trade Desk (TTD.US) as leaders in the "AI + digital advertising" segment [1][2] - The report emphasizes that small-cap stocks are currently more attractive compared to large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index's expected P/E ratio around 15x, below historical averages [2][3] - UBS expects several small-cap AI application software companies to provide positive earnings guidance, with Applovin and The Trade Desk anticipated to exceed market expectations for Q3 [3][4] Group 2 - The integration of AI in digital advertising has accelerated since the rise of ChatGPT, with major players like Google and Meta incorporating generative AI technologies to enhance ad performance [4][5] - UBS notes that the shift in focus from hardware to software in tech investments is benefiting companies like Applovin and The Trade Desk, as demand for AI application software continues to grow [5][6] - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on Applovin's performance, raising its Q2 2025 revenue forecast to $867 million, reflecting positive trends from App Store advertising policies and strong growth in its self-operated app business [7][8] Group 3 - The Trade Desk is also viewed positively by UBS, with expectations for steady growth in Q2, driven by its "AI + digital advertising" platform and upcoming events that could catalyze further performance [7][8] - Both companies have successfully integrated generative AI and deep learning into their advertising technologies, leading to significant revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has accelerated its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600-point mark and average daily trading volume rising to 1.86 trillion yuan [1] - The overall market style is characterized by a performance hierarchy: cyclical > growth > financial > consumer sectors [1] - Recent policy announcements and national strategic plans have boosted economic recovery confidence, with the upcoming Politburo meeting expected to play a crucial role in market performance [1] Group 2 - The Jin Ying Fund suggests a balanced allocation to mitigate potential volatility, particularly in the financial sector due to the upcoming Stablecoin regulations [2] - In the technology growth sector, interest in AI applications and the semiconductor industry is expected to rise following the World Artificial Intelligence Conference [2] - Despite a potential decrease in "anti-involution" enthusiasm due to falling futures prices, related policies are likely to continue, with sectors like photovoltaic and building materials still worth monitoring [2]

一、证监会停止降温牛市！A股三大指数继续高歌猛进，上证指数站上3600点。但一片欢腾之下，股东减持的步伐也在加速！但是，当股东们默契地按下了 收割键，这是否会给股市降降温？ 5月，403家公司的765位股东计划减持；6月，377家公司的727位股东计划减持。而如今才过去3个月，市场已经是另一番景象，关税战没有吓到A股，反而 走出了漂亮的慢牛行情。更是突破了久违的3600点，上次见到3600点还是在2024年。 对于指数而言，下周初如果再次冲高届时大概率会背驰，构筑一个短线高点，所以下周需要注意指数可能会有一次剧烈波动，那么操作上就要注意指数再有 新高的时候别去胡乱追涨了，中线可以简单点。 只要大盘指数和手里的个股位于5日线上方，无论如何都可以不考虑见顶，该持有还是持有。如果某日跌破5日线，并出顶分型，预计也会走个复合顶部，所 以不用一次性都出，而是分批减仓，这样可以出在相对高位。 三、市场全天震荡调整，三大指数小幅下跌。 两市全天成交额1.79万亿，较上个交易日缩量574亿。涨跌家数基本相当。板块方面，芯片股集体爆发，寒武纪涨超10%。AI应用股表现活跃，因赛集团 20CM涨停。 指数方面延续慢牛节奏，只要不 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently characterized by significant liquidity-driven features, with institutional funds continuing to flow in and individual investors accelerating their market entry, leading to a financing balance exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan [1] - The market is experiencing a positive trading sentiment, with a focus on the "technology + cycle" dual mainline pattern, supported by stable inflows of incremental funds [1][3] - The structural consensus in the market is reflected in the collaborative development of two main lines, with the large infrastructure sector seeing a surge in stock prices, and technology sectors like chips and AI applications also rebounding [3] Group 2 - The cyclical sector is unlikely to replicate the upward trend seen during the 2016 supply-side reform, as the current "anti-involution" market does not support a simple replication of the "bet on upstream price increases" strategy [4] - There are still some cyclical manufacturing varieties with low valuations and low attention, particularly in sectors like construction materials, basic chemicals, steel, and transportation [4] - Recent "anti-involution" policies should not be seen as immediate signals for the expansion of the cyclical sector, as current policies focus on structural adjustments and support for key areas rather than broad supply constraints on raw materials and cyclical products [4]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to accelerate its rise, with a shift in leading sectors towards technology. The index is anticipated to continue its upward trend without significant resistance, as evidenced by the recent increases in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.67%, ChiNext Index up 2.76%, and Sci-Tech 50 Index up 4.63% [2][13]. - There is an imminent change in the leading structure of industries and themes. Last week, the leading sectors included construction materials (up 8.2%), coal (up 8.0%), steel (up 7.7%), and non-ferrous metals (up 6.7%), driven by themes such as "anti-involution" and hydropower station developments. However, the report suggests that the current phase of rapid price increases may be nearing its end, and market expectations for policy announcements may not exceed optimistic forecasts [3][14]. - The technology sector is expected to become the main focus of attention as the rapid rise of cyclical sectors comes to an end. The report emphasizes that technology will be the main line of the upcoming market trends [4][15]. Group 2 - The report maintains a positive outlook on artificial intelligence (AI) as a key theme, predicting significant marginal changes in the AI industry over the next 1-2 months. The release of new models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5, is expected to stimulate competition and drive growth in the sector [5][16]. - Within the AI theme, the report highlights strong potential in domestic computing power, AI applications, PCB-related sectors, and robotics. It argues that domestic computing power is crucial for national development and will likely receive continued policy support. AI applications are expected to gain traction as new models are released, while the PCB sector remains in an upward trend. Robotics, as a significant application of AI, is also projected to follow the growth of the AI sector [6][17][18].

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect is positive, incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market. Currently, the WIND All A trend line is around 5400 points, with a profit-making effect value of 4.09%, which is significantly positive. Even in the face of short-term fluctuations, it is recommended to hold patiently or increase positions on dips [1][3][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy has an excess benchmark of -0.44% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 26.78% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy has an excess benchmark of 0.31% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 16.82% for the year. The net profit gap strategy has an excess benchmark of -1.68% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 35.72% for the year [1][9][13]. Sector Recommendations - In terms of industry allocation, the mid-term perspective continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, including Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption. The upward trend remains intact. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military industry, AI applications, and solid-state batteries. Overall, in the upward trend, attention should be paid to high-elasticity sectors such as brokerages and technology [2][3][8]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to have an 80% position [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The timing system signals show that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages continues to expand, with the latest data showing the 20-day line at 5437 and the 120-day line at 5168 points. The difference between the two lines has increased from 4.04% last week to 5.21%, with an absolute value significantly greater than 3%. The market continues to operate in an upward trend [3][8].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Timing System Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend. If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute distance exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend[2][10][16] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the WIND All A Index 2. Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - 20-day MA: Short-term moving average - 120-day MA: Long-term moving average 3. If the distance is greater than 3% and the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, the market is in an upward trend[2][10][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies upward market trends and provides a clear signal for timing decisions[2][10][16] 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies sectors with potential for outperformance based on medium-term trends and specific themes, such as "distressed reversal" and "high elasticity" sectors[3][11][16] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze sector performance and valuation metrics 2. Identify sectors with medium-term growth potential, such as distressed reversal sectors (e.g., Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption) 3. Highlight high-elasticity sectors like technology, military, AI applications, and solid-state batteries based on the TWO BETA model[3][11][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for sector allocation during upward market trends, focusing on high-growth and high-elasticity sectors[3][11][16] 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the optimal stock allocation ratio based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][11] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess the valuation levels of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB metrics 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend stock allocation ratios 3. Current recommendation: Allocate 80% of absolute return products to stocks based on the WIND All A Index[3][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to managing stock positions, balancing valuation levels and market trends[3][11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Model - **Distance between Moving Averages**: 5.21% (greater than the 3% threshold, indicating an upward trend)[2][10][16] 2. Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Distressed reversal sectors: Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, Hang Seng consumption - High-elasticity sectors: Technology, military, AI applications, solid-state batteries[3][11][16] 3. Position Management Model - **Stock Allocation Recommendation**: 80% allocation to stocks based on the WIND All A Index[3][11]