Global Market Dynamics - Trump is scheduled to meet with Putin on Friday [1] - China's deflation is expected to ease under the "anti-involution" trend [1] Industry Developments - CATL (宁德时代) has suspended production at a large lithium mine [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.49% [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxia Wokou mine of CATL is expected to positively impact the lithium industry, as this mine accounts for approximately 3% of global lithium production. The price of lithium carbonate futures surged to 76,960 yuan per ton following this news [4]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the PPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2% [7][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market by promoting long-term capital and implementing reforms to support long-term investments [8][9]. - The CSRC will maintain strict controls on IPOs to prevent large-scale expansions in the market, ensuring that the current market dynamics remain stable [9]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest focusing on strong industry trends, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industry, while avoiding speculative trading in micro-cap stocks [16]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes that the bull market atmosphere is unlikely to dissipate easily, with expectations for supply-demand improvements in 2026 [17]. - Guojin Securities highlights that the current market adjustment is a structural shift rather than a sign of a market peak, with policy support being crucial for market stability [24]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with high growth potential, such as new consumption, defense, AI computing, and humanoid robots, as these areas are expected to perform well in the current market environment [22][27]. - The market is anticipated to transition to a performance-driven phase, with an upward adjustment in the index as liquidity improves and policies supporting infrastructure and anti-involution are implemented [25].

因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 有色舍屈 1 4 比圭假 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 视下窝锂矿停产，看好碳酸锂行业盈利修复 TIDGAB ■ 证券研究报告 核心观点 相关报告 1.《美国非农大幅下滑,中长期继续看好黄 金》 2025-08-03 2. 《成本下行盈利修复,紧平衡格局延续》 2025-08-01 3.《轻稀土价格年内新高，中长期仍看好稀 士行情 》 2025-07-28 � 风险提示: 下游需求不及预期、部分产能释放超预期、金属价格波动加剧。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! and 1 2 2 1 � 能源金属: 枫下窝锂矿停产确定,稀土价格高位调整。(1)碳酸锂;据期货日报,8 月 9 日视下窝锂矿确定停产,短期无复产计划。江西多个锂矿或因矿证审批流程也面 临停产可能，或导致每月 7000 至 8000 吨碳酸锂当量受到影响。瓷土矿转锂土矿对 应税率也将大幅提高成本，叠加 9–11 月传统旺季供需更紧，多重因素推高碳酸锂价 格。建议关注锂矿资源相关标的:中矿资源、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、盛新锂能、融捷 股份、盐湖股份。( ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rose again. The closing prices of LC2508 and LC2509 increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.8%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the positive spread opportunity between months [2][13]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area is planned to stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. This will lead to a production loss of about 11% of domestic lithium carbonate, turn the Q3 balance sheet into de - stocking, and narrow the annual balance sheet's inventory accumulation amplitude [4][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side Disturbance Materializes, and the Futures Market Rises Again - From August 4th to 8th, lithium salt prices rose. LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 0.8%. Lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise [2][13]. - In July, Chile exported 23,800 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 40% month - on - month increase and a 9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,600 tons, a 33% month - on - month increase but a 13% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the total exports were 149,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and exports to China were 96,800 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In July, Chile shipped 10,400 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 35% month - on - month increase and a 171% year - on - year increase [3][14]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area will stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. The annual production capacity is 100,000 tons of LCE, and the monthly production of its three supporting lithium salt plants is about 9,000 tons. After the shutdown, the domestic lithium carbonate production loss is about 11% [4][18]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects [20]. - South Korea's POSCO made a $62 million cash offer for the exploration assets of Lithium South Development in Argentina's Hombre Muerto Salar [20]. - A 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of China Salt Lake went into production and sales on July 31st. The total investment is 2.29 billion yuan, accounting for 17% of the existing lithium carbonate production capacity of China Salt Lake [20]. - In July, Chile's lithium exports to China increased slightly. It exported 13,633 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 13% year - on - year decrease but a 33% month - on - month increase, expected to arrive at Chinese ports in August - September [21]. - Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area's mining end will stop production on August 10th with no short - term resumption plan [21]. 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes Rebound - Lithium concentrate spot quotes rebounded [22] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The lithium salt futures market rebounded strongly again [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Rise Slightly - The quotes of downstream intermediates rose slightly [37] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Inventory Continued to Decline in June - China's new energy vehicle inventory continued to decline in June [43]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have rebounded after a brief correction, with a weekly increase of 11.02% as of August 8, closing at 76,960 yuan/ton [2][3]. Price Movement - The main contract for lithium carbonate (LC2511) closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 11.02% [2]. - Weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by over 13% to 19,600 tons as of August 7, while weekly inventory only rose by 692 tons, indicating stable downstream demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about potential production halts at a major mine in Jiangxi are influencing market sentiment, with expectations leaning towards a production cut [4][5]. - The market is currently in a relatively balanced supply-demand phase, with some marginal improvements in fundamentals as demand expectations improve [4]. - Despite the price recovery, supply remains high, and the elasticity of supply is still significant, suggesting limited room for further price increases even if production halts occur [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the current operating rates for mica-derived lithium remain stable, there will be no substantial impact on supply-demand dynamics, although supply shortage concerns may persist [6]. - The potential for overseas supply to increase could exert downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices if related policies do not create sustained constraints [6]. - Investors are advised to approach market fluctuations with caution, as excessive speculation on supply disruptions may pose risks [6].

Group 1 - The Albanese government unexpectedly approved Chinese investment in Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources, marking a shift in its previous stance against foreign investment in critical mineral projects [1][3] - Canmax Technologies, a Chinese battery mineral supplier, will acquire nearly 2% of Liontown for approximately AUD 50 million, while the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation also invested AUD 50 million in the same company [1][3] - The approval of Canmax's investment indicates a softening of the government's previous informal ban on Chinese investments in key mineral projects, which had been in place for most of Albanese's term [1][3] Group 2 - Liontown's spokesperson emphasized the strategic value of a diversified investor base, stating that the financing plan could attract various international investors [3] - The investment from Canmax is part of Liontown's AUD 266 million financing plan aimed at improving its balance sheet [1][3] - The Australian government plans to support critical mineral producers, particularly in rare earth projects, to reduce Beijing's dominance in the supply chain [3][5] Group 3 - China is the largest producer of most critical minerals, which are essential for global energy transition and military equipment manufacturing [4] - Fortescue, an iron ore exporter, announced it secured a loan of 3 billion RMB from several Chinese banks, marking the first time an Australian company has obtained a RMB-denominated syndicated loan [7][8] - The fixed interest rate for Fortescue's loan is 3.8%, the lowest cost of debt in the company's history, indicating a strong alignment with Chinese partners [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by supply concerns related to mining permit compliance issues in Jiangxi, coupled with a seasonal recovery in downstream demand [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Changes - Supply side: Lithium carbonate weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, but an overall increase of 3% to 84,200 tons is expected in August [2] - Demand side: There is a seasonal uptick in demand as downstream battery material manufacturers increase production plans, with rising inquiries due to the transition from off-peak to peak season [2] Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment is aggressive, with expectations of significant price fluctuations until clarity on the Jiangxi mining situation is achieved [2] - The recent price increase of 7.73% in lithium carbonate futures reflects heightened market activity and speculation [1] Inventory and Supply Chain Response - As of August 7, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 142,400 tons, showing a slight increase, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [3] - Different strategies are being adopted across the supply chain, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among downstream material manufacturers due to sensitivity to current high lithium prices [3] Future Market Outlook - There are mixed views on the future trajectory of lithium carbonate prices, with some expecting a slight reduction in inventory while others remain cautious due to ongoing inventory concerns and upcoming financial disclosures from overseas mines [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The lithium carbonate futures market has experienced significant volatility, with the main contract fluctuating from over 80,000 yuan/ton to a drop of 67,840 yuan/ton within a month [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased from 72,833 yuan/ton to 70,833 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade products saw a decline of 3.06% [1] - The lithium hydroxide futures market has also reacted to these fluctuations, indicating market concerns over future supply and demand balance [1][4] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Major lithium supply sources globally include Australia, South American salt lakes, and emerging regions in Africa, with Australian production showing a 13% quarter-on-quarter decrease but a 22% year-on-year increase [5] - Domestic lithium resources are concentrated in Jiangxi and Qinghai, with recent regulatory actions leading to expectations of supply contraction [5] - The production status of enterprises has been affected, with a notable decline in purchasing willingness from downstream cathode material manufacturers due to high prices [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - Despite strong performance in the energy storage market, the growth rate of electric vehicles is slowing, with global lithium demand expected to grow by 18% to 1.5 million tons LCE by 2025, significantly lower than previous years [6] - Current lithium prices are approaching cost levels, with an estimated supply of 1.34 million tons LCE at 80,000 yuan/ton, while projected demand for 2025 is 1.43 million tons LCE [6] - The influx of speculative funds into the futures market has significantly influenced price movements, with a notable increase in trading volumes [6] Group 4: Risk Management Tools - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's lithium hydroxide futures (LTH) have become a key tool for hedging price risks in the industry, particularly for high-end material companies [8] - LTH contracts directly connect with the procurement pricing systems of high-end supply chain companies, mitigating cross-hedging discrepancies [9] - Companies can effectively lock in future sales prices or procurement costs through hedging operations in the LTH market, thus protecting profit margins [12] Group 5: Market Strategies - Market participants can engage in cross-market arbitrage between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures, with recent price spreads indicating potential trading opportunities [14] - Seasonal expectations suggest a potential downturn in the fourth quarter, with strategies like long positions in near-term contracts yielding returns [15] - The lithium market is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with global economic growth impacting demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lithium carbonate is gradually diverging from the trend of active varieties. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the expected adjustment of large - scale mineral supply has a significant impact on the market. In the past two days, under the influence of news from Jiangxi mines, bullish sentiment has dominated the market. Currently, most of the news from the mining end cannot be verified, and the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. Recently, the sentiment fluctuations brought by the news have been frequent, and the uncertainty of capital game is relatively high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry points according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Data**: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an increase of 11.5% in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [12] - **Supply**: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. The domestic lithium carbonate production returned to a high level. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12] - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [12] - **Inventory**: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [12] - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Trend**: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an 11.5% increase in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [20] - **Market Features**: The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings increased [23] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,910 yuan [26] 3.3 Supply End - **Domestic Production**: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a 40.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - **Production by Source**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a 73.8% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a 21.0% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons in July, with a 15.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons in July, with a 17.4% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [34][37] - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [40] 3.4 Demand End - **Consumption Structure**: The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The future growth point of lithium salt consumption still relies on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powder, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5% [44] - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase from the previous year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase from the previous year [47][50] - **Battery Production and Installation**: In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase from the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% cumulative increase year - on - year. In June, the installation volume of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installation volume of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% cumulative increase year - on - year [53] - **Cathode Material Production**: In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [56] 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [63] - **Other Inventory Features**: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush [66] 3.6 Cost End - **Ore Price**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [74] - **Lithium Concentrate Imports**: In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% cumulative decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year [77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose as profit margins are restored and production has rebounded, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,140 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,680 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton (-1,520 compared to the previous day), the basis changed from a premium to a discount [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton (+9), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 71,100 yuan/ton (+150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 69,000 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt - related products also showed different degrees of changes [1] 3.3 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - **By Sector**: On August 7, 2025, the inventory of smelters was 20,999 tons (-959 compared to the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 48,159 tons (+2,271), and the inventory of others was 43,260 tons (-620). The total inventory was 142,418 tons (+692) [1] 3.4 Market Information - **Customs Data**: In July, China's total imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [1] - **Market Trends**: On August 7, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased in August, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries decreased last week, the production of energy - storage batteries increased in August, and the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month in July [1]