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腾讯研究院AI速递 20250710
腾讯研究院· 2025-07-09 14:49
Group 1: Veo 3 Upgrade - The Google Veo 3 upgrade allows audio and video generation from a single image, maintaining high consistency across multiple angles [1] - The new feature is implemented through the Flow platform's "Frames to Video" option, enhancing camera movement capabilities, although the Gemini Veo3 entry is currently unavailable [1] - User tests indicate natural expressions and effective performances, marking a significant breakthrough in AI storytelling applicable in advertising and animation [1] Group 2: Hugging Face 3B Model - Hugging Face has released the open-source 3B parameter model SmolLM3, outperforming Llama-3.2-3B and Qwen2.5-3B, supporting a 128K context window and six languages [2] - The model features a dual-mode system allowing users to switch between deep thinking and non-thinking modes [2] - It employs a three-stage mixed training strategy, trained on 11.2 trillion tokens, with all technical details, including architecture and data mixing methods, made available [2] Group 3: Kunlun Wanwei Skywork-R1V 3.0 - Kunlun Wanwei has open-sourced the Skywork-R1V 3.0 multimodal model, achieving a score of 142 in high school mathematics and 76 in MMMU evaluation, surpassing some closed-source models [3] - The model utilizes a reinforcement learning strategy (GRPO) and key entropy-driven mechanisms, achieving high performance with only 12,000 supervised samples and 13,000 reinforcement learning samples [3] - It excels in physical reasoning, logical reasoning, and mathematical problem-solving, setting a new performance benchmark for open-source models and demonstrating cross-disciplinary generalization capabilities [3] Group 4: Vidu Q1 Video Creation - Vidu Q1's multi-reference video feature allows users to upload up to seven reference images, enabling strong character consistency and zero storyboard video generation [4] - Users can combine multiple subjects with simple prompts, with clarity upgraded to 1080P, and support for character material storage for repeated use [5] - Test results show it is suitable for creating multi-character animation trailers, supporting frame extraction and quality enhancement, reducing video production costs to less than 0.9 yuan per video [5] Group 5: VIVO BlueLM-2.5-3B Model - VIVO has launched the BlueLM-2.5-3B edge multimodal model, which excels in over 20 evaluations and supports GUI interface understanding [6] - The model allows flexible switching between long and short thinking modes, introducing a thinking budget control mechanism to optimize reasoning depth and computational cost [6] - It employs a sophisticated structure (ViT+Adapter+LLM) and a four-stage pre-training strategy, enhancing efficiency and mitigating the text capability forgetting issue in multimodal models [6] Group 6: DeepSeek-R1 System - The X-Masters system, developed by Shanghai Jiao Tong University and DeepMind Technology, has achieved a score of 32.1 in the "Human Last Exam" (HLE), surpassing OpenAI and Google [7] - The system is built on the DeepSeek-R1 model, enabling smooth transitions between internal reasoning and external tool usage, using code as an interactive language [7] - X-Masters employs a decentralized-stacked multi-agent workflow, enhancing reasoning breadth and depth through collaboration among solvers, critics, rewriters, and selectors, with the solution fully open-sourced [7] Group 7: Zhihui Jun's Acquisition - Zhihui Jun's Zhiyuan Robot has acquired control of the listed company Shuangwei New Materials for 2.1 billion yuan, aiming for a 63.62%-66.99% stake [8] - Following the acquisition, Shuangwei New Materials' stock resumed trading with a limit-up, reaching a market value of 3.77 billion yuan, with the actual controller changing to Zhiyuan CEO Deng Taihua and core team members including "Zhihui Jun" Peng Zhihui [8] - This acquisition, conducted through "agreement transfer + active invitation," is seen as a landmark case for new productivity enterprises in A-shares following the implementation of national policies [8] Group 8: AI Model Usage Trends - In the first half of 2025, the Gemini series models captured nearly half of the large model API market, with Google leading at 43.1%, followed by DeepSeek and Anthropic at 19.6% and 18.4% respectively [9] - DeepSeek V3 has maintained a high user retention rate since its launch, ranking among the top five in usage, while OpenAI's model usage has fluctuated significantly [9] - The competitive landscape shows differentiation: Claude-Sonnet-4 leads in programming (44.5%), Gemini-2.0-Flash excels in translation, GPT-4o leads in marketing (32.5%), and role-playing remains highly fragmented [9] Group 9: AI User Trends - A report by Menlo Ventures indicates that there are 1.8 billion AI users globally, with a low paid user rate of only 3%, and a high student usage rate of 85%, while parents are becoming heavy users [10] - AI is primarily used for email writing (19%), researching topics of interest (18%), and managing to-do lists (18%), with no single task dependency exceeding one-fifth [10] - The next 18-24 months are expected to see six major trends in AI: rise of vertical tools, complete process automation, multi-person collaboration, explosion of voice AI, physical AI in households, and diversification of business models [10]
2025上半年大模型使用量观察:Gemini系列占一半市场份额,DeepSeek V3用户留存极高
Founder Park· 2025-07-09 06:11
Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and trends of the large model API market in 2025, highlighting significant growth and shifts in market share among key players [1][2][25]. Token Usage Growth - In Q1 2025, the total token usage for AI models increased nearly fourfold compared to the previous quarter, stabilizing at around 2 trillion tokens per week thereafter [7][25]. - The top models by token usage include Gemini-2.0-Flash, Claude-Sonnet-4, and Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-0520, with Gemini-2.0-Flash maintaining a strong position due to its low pricing and high performance [2][7]. Market Share Distribution - Google holds a dominant market share of 43.1%, followed by DeepSeek at 19.6% and Anthropic at 18.4% [8][25]. - OpenAI's models show significant volatility in usage, with GPT-4o-mini experiencing notable fluctuations, particularly in May [8][25]. Segment-Specific Insights - In the programming domain, Claude-Sonnet-4 leads with a 44.5% market share, while Gemini-2.5-Pro follows [12]. - For translation tasks, Gemini-2.0-Flash dominates with a 45.7% share, indicating its widespread integration into translation software [17]. - The role-playing model market is fragmented, with small models collectively holding 26.6% of the share, while DeepSeek leads in this area [21]. API Usage Trends - The most utilized APIs on OpenRouter are primarily for code writing, with Cline and RooCode leading the way [25]. - The overall trend indicates a strong preference for tools that facilitate coding and application development [25]. Competitive Landscape - DeepSeek's V3 model has shown strong user retention and is favored over its predecessor, likely due to faster processing times [25]. - Meta's Llama series is declining in popularity, while Mistral AI has captured approximately 3% of the market, primarily among users interested in fine-tuning open-source models [25]. - X-AI's Grok series is still establishing its market position, and the Qwen series holds a modest 1.6% share, indicating room for growth [25].
120页深度报告,搞懂今年大模型和应用的现状与未来
Founder Park· 2025-07-03 11:07
Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing unprecedented growth and rapid technological advancements, with significant shifts in market dynamics and application strategies [1][2]. Model Economics - The cost of training cutting-edge foundation models is skyrocketing, with the estimated training cost for Llama 4 in 2025 expected to exceed $300 million, a dramatic increase from $4.5 million for GPT-3 in 2020 [3][6]. - The lifespan of these models is decreasing rapidly, with high training costs facing the reality of quick obsolescence, as seen with GPT-4's performance being matched or surpassed by lower-cost open-source models within a year [6][8]. Application Trends - Successful AI applications are increasingly relying on multi-model collaboration rather than single-model dependency, enhancing performance through systematic approaches [4]. - The shift towards "data as a service" is anticipated as data collection costs decrease significantly, creating new opportunities for AI infrastructure [4]. Technological Breakthroughs - Two key breakthroughs are driving the current AI wave: self-supervised learning, which allows models to learn from vast amounts of unlabelled data, and attention architecture, which enhances computational efficiency and contextual understanding [24][25]. - The emergence of "emergent behavior" in models indicates that once a certain scale is reached, performance can dramatically improve, leading to a race for larger model sizes [26][27]. Market Dynamics - Venture capital investment in foundation model companies has surged, with approximately 10.5% of global venture capital directed towards this sector in 2024, amounting to $33 billion [112]. - The concentration of capital in AI is reshaping the competitive landscape, with over 50% of venture capital deployed to AI-related companies in 2025, marking a significant shift in investment focus [112].
奥比中光(688322):5月扭亏,“技术创新投入-商业成果转化”战略加速落地催化
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 09:43
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 光学光电子 奥比中光(688322) 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 30 日 1-5 月扭亏,"技术创新投入-商业成果转化"战略加速落地催化 ——奥比中光点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件:公司完成 2025 年 1-5 月主要经营数据初步核算工作,实现扭亏 1)根据公司未经审计的财务数据,2025 年 1-5 月实现营收 3.63 亿元,同比增长 117%; 实现归母净利润 0.55 亿元,同比扭亏。 2)公司"技术创新投入-商业成果转化"战略加速落地催化,全栈式研发能力和全领域 技术路线布局为技术迭代创新提供底层动力,在包括具身智能机器人、各类 AI 端侧硬件 升级等赛道,公司均具备明显的先发、技术及产品规模化等优势。 ❑ 公司技术实力雄厚,居人形机器人竞争格局最好的赛道之一,α+β共振有望业绩高增 1)β:人形机器人产业化提速,3D 视觉是竞争格局最优赛道之一 2025 年人形机器人行业进入内外双驱、日新月异的产业扩张期;我们预计 2030 年中美制 造业、家政业的人形机器人需求合计约 210 万台,市场空间约 3146 亿元。 机器人视觉承载 80%信息获取,目前国内外龙 ...
亚马逊云现场一手
小熊跑的快· 2025-06-20 08:13
2、模型阵营分明!aws不主推 openai gpt系列模型,不上Gemini系列模型室。google云上claude ,不上 gpt系列,微软云补主推 claude。 3、trainium2 目前能搭6万卡集群,后续推理需求,tainium2 推广很猛!inferentia好久没跌代了,后续估 计不会再推了。年底出trainium3。 最近抽空参加了一下现场。 说一下结论: 1、Claude 3.7 和4出来后,目前已经和openai O1 系列模型分庭抗礼了。 从单日token看,基本快持平 了。 4、亚马逊规模最大,基于CPU的计算 基础云,它受认可度最高。并在不断降本。 5、对应用开发递推有三层:基于gpu的 sagemaker!基础模型api调用一体化平台bedrock!针对 高阶用 户的Q! ...
投资大家谈 | 景顺长城科技军团6月观点
点拾投资· 2025-06-13 11:51
过去半年,科技股行情持续升温,中国科技产业的崛起已成为全球资本市场的焦点。DeepSeek 的突破性进展不仅提振了市场信心,更向世界展示了中国在AI领域的领先潜力。然而,对中国经 济的质疑声仍未消散——这种分歧恰恰印证了投资领域的经典规律:市场底部往往与怀疑相伴, 而市场顶部则由共识驱动。政策传导通常存在时滞,实施过程可能面临阶段性挑战,但政策制定 者始终秉持动态响应原则应对变化。因此,最重要的关注点应是政策制定者的战略决心和方向锚 定。 董晗:中国高科技产业的关键突破,有望惠及整个中国资产 导语:"投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目,希望通过每周日不定期的推送,让更多人看到基金经 理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主,不带有基金产品的代码和信息, 也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 下面,我们分享来自景顺长城基金科技军团的6月思考。一直以来,景顺长城科技军团通过持续 深耕产业链,不断取得前沿、深度的投资洞见。他们也是买方基金公司中,少数提供持续观点分 享的投研团队,相信这一期的6月观点,也能帮助大家理解景顺长城科技军团的投研思考。 最后,也欢迎大家持续给我们投稿!可以发送邮件到:az ...
创业板人工智能ETF(159388)涨近2.5%,AI推理能力提升或加速场景渗透
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-09 05:36
消息面上,6月7日,2025全球人工智能技术大会(GAITC2025)在杭州开幕,聚焦"交叉、融合、相 生、共赢"主题,汇聚全球200多位专家学者,并启动人工智能领域知识产权证券化融资专项支持行动, 计划三年内发行5支相关产品,辐射60余家企业。 西部证券指出,AI产业趋势向上,推理能力提升驱动复杂场景渗透。2025年5月,计算机行业指数表现 弱于沪深300指数,但海外科技巨头如微软、英伟达、谷歌等涨幅显著。AI领域持续进阶,Claude 4系 列发布,编程能力进一步提升,其中Claude Opus 4在编码任务中表现领先,能够长时间运行复杂任务; DeepSeek R1模型升级后,复杂推理能力显著增强,准确率大幅提升。谷歌在I/O 2025上展示了AI大模 型及产品的全面升级,包括Gemini系列的功能扩展和新模型发布。AI Agent及算力仍是最明确的投资方 向,产业趋势向好,推理能力的提升将推动AI在更多复杂场景中的应用。 注:指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考,不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动,不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,也不构成对基金业绩 ...
AI加速落地,算力产业链确定性高
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-27 00:50
每经编辑|赵云 5月26日,通信ETF(515880)收涨0.83%,半导体设备ETF(159516)收涨1.1%。 近日,AI大厂继续发布新模型,加速AI应用落地。5月21日,谷歌I/O开发者大会发布多款AI模型、AI 应用、AI Agent等产品。语言模型方面,Gemini系列模型全面升级。AI应用方面,公司表示Gemini模型 将逐步登陆手机、手表、汽车、电视等多平台,持续赋能终端产品。5月22日,OpenAI宣布用于Agent 开发的Responses API支持MCP,随着A2A协议和MCP生态不断完善,AI Agent开发效率和交互能力有望 迎来快速提升,加速AI应用落地,催生AIDC产业链需求进一步释放。 一季度海外巨头资本开支保持良好趋势,根据民生证券,Meta25Q1 CAPEX为137亿美元(同比 +104%,环比-8%)。公司大幅上调25年全年CAPEX指引至640~720亿美元(同比+63~84%)。亚马逊 25Q1 CAPEX为263亿美元(同比+74%,环比-7%)。谷歌25Q1 CAPEX为172亿美元(同比+43%,环比 +20%)。 同时,国内大厂资本开支迎来明显加速。阿里2 ...