市场早间冲高回落，三大指数涨跌互现。PCB等算力硬件股再度走强，兴森科技、骏亚科技涨停，胜宏 科技涨超10%再创新高。影视股表现活跃，幸福蓝海、中国电影涨停。医药股盘中拉升，辰欣药业、丰 原药业、海思科等涨停。下跌方面，煤炭、钢铁等资源股调整，山西焦煤、柳钢股份等跌超5%。个股 跌多涨少，沪深京三市超2900股飘绿，上午半天成交1.14万亿。午间收盘沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌 0.16%，创业板涨0.1%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 表2：7月25日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 28 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月25日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trends of various futures are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, the trends are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [4]. - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. For treasury bond futures, consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. For black commodities, prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, prices are expected to show different trends such as high - level oscillation and weakening. For agricultural products, prices are affected by supply and demand and other factors, showing different trends. For energy and chemical products, most are expected to be in a weak or oscillating state [6][7][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The government has introduced a series of policies, such as the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, the deployment of key tasks for the reform and development of the capital market by the CSRC, and the adjustment of the maximum value of the预定 interest rate of new insurance products by insurance companies. Economic data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size have rebounded, and the US durable goods orders have declined significantly [8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. The A - share market has shown a pattern of sector rotation. The CSRC has deployed key tasks, and insurance companies are adjusting the预定 interest rate. The profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the movement of stop - profit funds [6][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. The bond market has shown short - term fluctuations, and inflation and the capital situation are the focus. Attention should be paid to the trends of the stock index and commodities [8][9]. Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: Affected by policies, the expectation of increasing inflation through the supply side is rising. The off - season is not weak, and the peak season is not strong. The demand may weaken marginally, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore production is expected to remain high. Prices may enter a short - term oscillating adjustment phase [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply may be reduced due to production inspections, and the demand is stable. However, there is a possibility of a decline in iron water production, and imported coal may put pressure on prices. The adjustment of trading limits has affected prices [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market may open lower and fluctuate greatly on the 28th. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and the profit margins have expanded. It is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider taking profits on rallies. The supply of soda ash has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The price of glass has risen, but the demand is mainly speculative [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term range trading is recommended. The prices of both have been affected by regulatory measures and market sentiment [18]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. The processing fee is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and prices will oscillate and weaken [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will oscillate strongly before the supply - side disruption expectation is falsified. If the production reduction does not occur for a long time, prices may fall [20]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon has a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the market may fluctuate greatly [21]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating and rebounding under pressure. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies in the long - term. The market is affected by macro and supply - demand factors, and the consumption outlook is still worrying [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decline in import costs. The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the impact of relevant policies [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [33]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended. The market is affected by policies, substitute products, and supply and demand [34][35]. - **Jujubes**: It is recommended to lightly short. The market is in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather [36]. - **Pigs**: Short - term short - selling is recommended for near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to risk control. Arbitrage strategies can be considered [36]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and trade negotiations [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are weaker than crude oil, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation, the Middle East power generation demand, and the shipping market [41]. - **Plastics**: The market sentiment may lead to a slight strength in polyolefins in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [41][42]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs. Attention should be paid to factors such as raw material supply and market sentiment [43]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider short - selling options. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by sentiment [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH2509 contract is expected to be under pressure in the context of the rising price of liquid chlorine and the weakening of commodity futures [44]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamentals are stable, and prices follow crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation and the seasonal demand [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is not recommended to go long, and short - selling can be considered later. The supply may decrease, but the demand is weak [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the long - term. Prices are likely to fall [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate and rise, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot trading [50]. - **Logs**: The spot price has rebounded, and the basis repair logic still exists. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [51]. - **Urea**: Futures are expected to open significantly lower and then oscillate. It is advisable to consider going long after a significant decline [52].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with grapes, citrus, and bananas decreasing by 3.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.08 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with tomatoes, winter melons, and lotus roots decreasing by 6.1%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly decreased, with large hairtail, crucian carp, and grass carp dropping by 1.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice remained unchanged and flour and peanut oil increased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.63 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef increased by 0.2% and lamb remained stable [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% and eggs increasing by 2.0% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.1% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly declined, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices predominantly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4% and compound fertilizers increasing by 0.1% [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.8% and polypropylene, methanol, and soda ash decreasing by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 934 yuan and 755 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3401 yuan, 3538 yuan, and 3584 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively [2]

情绪退潮，焦炭四轮提涨有望落地，多单减仓 -------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 大商所发布，经研究决定，自 2025 年 7 月 29 日交易时（即 7 月 28 日夜盘交易小 节时）起，非期货公司会员或者客户在焦煤期货 JM2509 合约上单日开仓量不得超 过 500 手，在焦煤期货其他合约上单日开仓量不得超过 2,000 手。 焦煤： 现货上调，期货偏强。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1200 元/ ...

Trade Recommendations for Different Futures Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive waiting and observing. The slow - bull trend remains but may correct recently due to factors like market sentiment cooling and high - level technical indicators [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profit, with a trend of weakening in oscillation. The bond market may adjust in oscillation, and the approach depends on investors' positions, durations, and tolerances [6][7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily wait and observe or engage in short - term trading. The market may oscillate as the cost has adjusted, and supply - demand is balanced, with upcoming macro and industrial policies to be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Consider it as the long - leg when shorting other black varieties. Although there are issues of potential supply surplus, support from other factors keeps it oscillating at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillate. The coking coal market has a tight short - term supply - demand pattern, and coke may see price increases, but key factors like production recovery and cost trends need attention [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Trade within a range or wait and observe. The price may oscillate due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand changes, and economic recovery expectations [12]. - **Aluminum**: Mainly wait and observe. There are risks in the short - term, with factors like changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand affecting the market, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings [14]. - **Nickel**: Consider shorting at high levels. The overall supply in the nickel industry is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [19]. - **Tin**: Trade within a range. Supply improvement is limited, and with low overseas inventory, the price is expected to be supported [21]. - **Gold and Silver**: Trade within a range cautiously. Market sentiment and tariff policies affect their prices, and they are expected to have support at the bottom [21][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate, with attention to the 5150 support level. Supply is high, and export sustainability is in question, but policy expectations have an impact [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on 2500 - 2700. Supply is abundant, and demand has rigid support but a slow - down in growth [26]. - **Styrene**: Oscillate, temporarily focusing on 7300 - 7700. Fundamental positives are limited, and the market is affected by macro factors [28]. - **Rubber**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 pressure level. There is a short - term callback risk, but raw material and inventory factors support it [30]. - **Urea**: First weaken then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is expected to increase, with a neutral supply - demand pattern [31]. - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply in some areas is tight, and demand is mixed, with a stable supply - demand situation [32]. - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate weakly. The L2509 contract focuses on 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract focuses on 6900 - 7200. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in the off - season, but inventory provides some support [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Exit and wait and observe. Supply is high, and demand is under pressure, but short - term macro factors drive the market [35]. Cotton Spinning Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Global supply and demand are adjusted, and the domestic market has a tight supply, supporting the price [36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate [37]. - **Jujubes**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. New - season production and sales area conditions affect the price, which is expected to remain stable and strong [38][39]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Hogs**: Oscillate weakly. The short - term supply is strong, and demand is weak. Consider shorting the 09 and 11 contracts and going long on the 01 contract [40][41]. - **Eggs**: Short at high levels. Short - term price increases are limited, and supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [41]. - **Corn**: Oscillate within a range (2250 - 2350). Consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Short - term supply - demand is in a game, and mid - long - term supply is tightening [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, go long on the M2509 contract at low levels; in the mid - long - term, pay attention to weather conditions and go long on relevant contracts at low levels [43][44]. - **Oils**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, trade within the range for 09 contracts and buy on dips [45][50]. Global Major Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66, down 0.33%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,168.14, down 0.22%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, down 0.53%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,795.51, down 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,299.59, up 0.10%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5,903.58, up 0.25% [2]. - The Nikkei Index closed at 41,456.23, down 0.88%; the Dow Jones Index closed at 44,901.92, up 0.47%; the S&P 500 Index closed at 6,388.64, up 0.40%; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,108.32, up 0.24% [2]. - The US Dollar Index closed at 97.6674, up 0.18%; the RMB exchange rate was 7.1679, up 0.18% [2]. - New York Gold closed at 3,338.50, down 0.97%; WTI Crude Oil closed at 65.16, down 1.32% [2]. - LME Copper closed at 9,796.00, down 0.59%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,631.00, down 0.57%; LME Zinc closed at 2,829.00, down 0.40%; LME Lead closed at 2,020.50, down 0.12%; LME Nickel closed at 15,265.00, down 1.33% [2].

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 市场情绪降温 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 钢价震荡走势 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 二、行情评述 ⚫ 宏观面： 国务院国资委：要带头抵制"内卷式"竞争， 加强重组整合，推动国有资本优化配置，形成新的国有 资本布局结构。国家能源局综合司近日发布了《关于组 织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知》。《通知》提到，今年以来，部分煤矿企业"以量 补价"，超公告产能组织生产， ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong coal stocks collectively declined, with Mongolian Coking Coal (00975.HK) dropping nearly 6% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) fell over 3% [1] - Other companies such as China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) and China Coal Energy (01898.HK) also experienced declines [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3600-point mark this week, reaching a new high for the year with a weekly increase of 2.21% [2] - Daily average trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of over 290 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2] - Key policy announcements, including the start of major infrastructure projects and the confirmation of Hainan's free trade port closure date, positively impacted market sentiment, particularly in the upstream sectors like construction materials, coal, and steel [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a comprehensive adjustment this week, with both government and corporate bonds declining, resulting in negative returns for pure bond funds [3] - The overall funding environment remained balanced, with the central bank providing timely liquidity support through MLF operations, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated this week, initially rising due to increased market risk aversion but later declining amid optimistic trade agreement developments [4] - The overall trend for commodities was positive, with the South China Commodity Index rising by 2.73% this week, driven by significant increases in black and energy commodities [39] Overseas Market - Global risk assets generally rose, with the US stock market reaching new highs, supported by positive earnings reports and developments in AI [5] - The S&P 500 index is currently near high valuation levels, indicating a potential decrease in winning odds for US equities in the short term [10] Stock Market Insights - The A-share market continued its upward trend, with the CSI 500 index showing significant weekly gains, reflecting strong investor sentiment and market performance [12] - The market is currently characterized by high trading volumes and turnover rates, particularly in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, which are above their three-year average levels [14] Sector Performance - In the past week, the construction materials, coal, and steel sectors performed exceptionally well, with respective increases of 8.20%, 7.98%, and 7.67% [22] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and potential for positive surprises [7]