证券之星消息，11月10日非白酒板块较上一交易日上涨2.67%，会稽山领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4018.6，上涨0.53%。深证成指报收于13427.61，上涨0.18%。非白酒板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601579 | 会稽山 | 23.57 | 9.99% | 37.12万 | 8.56 Z | | 002568 | 自润股份 | 25.16 | 4.44% | 15.01万 | 3.72亿 | | 600059 | 古越龙山 | 9.98 | 4.07% | 29.39万 | 2.90 Z | | 000729 | 咸京啤酒 | 12.07 | 3.07% | 42.05万 | 5.02亿 | | 600573 | 飘船船舶 | 11.97 | 2.75% | 7.69万 | 9171.49万 | | 600616 | 金枫酒业 | 5.90 | 2.25% | 14.03万 | 8215.53万 | | 600600 | 顾些啦啦 | 66. ...

Core Insights - The beer sector has seen a rise of 2.48% as of the market close on November 10, ranking it 9th among concept sectors [1] - Within the beer sector, 28 stocks increased in value, with notable gains from Pinwa Food (up 8.84%), Luzhou Laojiao (up 8.23%), and Jinhui Wine (up 6.17%) [1] Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today include Dairy (up 4.36%), Cultivated Diamonds (up 3.46%), and Baijiu (up 3.01%) [2] - The beer concept sector recorded a net inflow of 387 million yuan, with 22 stocks experiencing net inflows, and 9 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao led the net inflow with 173 million yuan, followed by Qingdao Beer (58.07 million yuan), He Bai Group (28.30 million yuan), and Jinzongzi Wine (27.12 million yuan) [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The stocks with the highest net inflow ratios include Rhine Biology (10.76%), Qingdao Beer (10.60%), and Chongqing Beer (10.28%) [3] - The beer concept fund inflow rankings show Luzhou Laojiao with a daily increase of 8.23% and a turnover rate of 1.94%, while Qingdao Beer increased by 1.89% with a turnover rate of 1.18% [3][4] - Other notable stocks include He Bai Group (up 4.59%), Jinzongzi Wine (up 3.90%), and Pinwa Food (up 8.84%) [4]

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer has shown a slight increase in stock price and a positive trend in revenue and profit growth, indicating potential investment opportunities in the beverage sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of October 31, Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 13.43 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.57% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.77 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 37.45% [2]. Stock Market Activity - On November 10, Yanjing Beer’s stock price rose by 2.05% to 11.95 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 270 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.91% [1]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date increase of 0.84%, a 5-day increase of 1.79%, a 20-day decrease of 1.65%, and a 60-day decrease of 8.92% [1]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders increased to 56,600, up by 21.92%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 17.98% to 44,366 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 74.58 million shares, a decrease of 21.02 million shares from the previous period [3]. Dividend Distribution - Yanjing Beer has cumulatively distributed 4.51 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.04 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period for quality companies [4][8]. Core Views - Despite the need for patience regarding fundamental improvements, the report highlights significant revenue declines for major liquor companies, with a focus on finding a balance between volume and price [4][8]. - The report emphasizes that long-term investors can start pricing quality companies as the market approaches a predictable bottom [4][8]. - Key recommendations include premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, along with consumer staples like Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Anjuke Food [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with liquor down 0.84%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.64 percentage points [7]. - The top gainers included Anji Food (+13.87%), Huifa Food (+13.07%), and Babi Food (+11.32%) [7]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report notes that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.20 percentage points from November 3 to November 7, 2025 [45]. - Sub-sectors such as food processing and leisure foods outperformed the index, while liquor categories, including white liquor and other alcoholic beverages, lagged behind [45]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - Kweichow Moutai announced a stock buyback plan of between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan and a cash dividend distribution of 30 billion yuan [2][9]. - The report indicates that Moutai's revenue growth slowed to 0.35% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Wuliangye's revenue fell by 53% [9]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 20.22x, with a premium rate of 23%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.93x, with a premium rate of 15% [33].

Macro Insights - October CPI turned positive year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, driven by the weakening high base effect, seasonal food price increases, holiday effects, and medical price reforms impacting service prices [2] - PPI recorded its first month-on-month increase this year, attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in industrial products and rising international metal prices [2] Trade Data - In October 2025, China's exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly down from the previous month, primarily due to high base effects. Integrated circuits and automobiles were key export drivers, while labor-intensive products contributed negatively [3] - The export growth rate is expected to remain affected by high base effects in the remaining months of the year, but supportive non-US economies and easing US-China trade relations are likely to maintain a favorable export outlook [3] Market Strategy - The current market position is seen as a potential starting point for a long-term bull market, with gradual improvements in fundamentals and industry highlights as the foundation. The inflow of resident funds and policy support will influence market trends [4][10] - The market may enter a wide-ranging consolidation phase in the short term, with a focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention remains on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [10] Bond Market - The secondary market for REITs showed a downward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 182.3, reflecting a return rate of -0.48% for the week [5] - Credit bond issuance totaled 334 bonds with a total scale of 363.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.66% week-on-week, while industrial bonds saw a 5.36% increase in issuance [6] Industry Research TMT Sector - The narrative around AI investments is shifting from "need to invest" to "need for returns," leading to a revaluation of AI visibility and realization. Major tech companies are experiencing accelerated growth in cloud computing revenue, validating AI demand [11] - Recommended stocks include Microsoft, with a focus on Google, Amazon, and Meta [11] Basic Chemicals - Strong demand for energy storage is tightening the supply-demand situation for iron phosphate, leading to improved prices and profitability for leading phosphate chemical companies [12] - Suggested stocks include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng, and Xingfa Group [12] Oil and Gas - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases, which is expected to alleviate concerns over oil supply. Geopolitical tensions are likely to support oil prices [13] - The report highlights risks related to upstream capital expenditure growth and price volatility [13] Food and Beverage - Recommendations include strong brands with high dividend returns like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as companies benefiting from structural upgrades in the beer sector [14] - Suggested stocks include Yihai International and Mengniu Dairy [14] Automotive - The automotive market showed strong performance in October, with NIO's monthly sales surpassing 40,000 units. Recommended stocks include NIO and XPeng Motors [15] - Suggested components include Fuyao Glass and Wuxi Zhenhua [15] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is focusing on mitigating tariff impacts and enhancing market share among leading companies. Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Anta Sports [16] - The cosmetics sector is expected to highlight the capabilities of leading companies amid intensified competition [16] Company Research Hong Kong Stock Exchange - The company reported record high revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by active trading in the Hong Kong stock market [17] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 17.3 billion, 18.5 billion, and 19.5 billion HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [17] Farah Electronics - The company achieved a revenue of 1.445 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.31%. The market share in the new energy sector continues to rise [18] - The stock is rated as a "buy" with a projected PE of 20X, 16X, and 14X for 2025-2027 [18] Huahong Semiconductor - The company is entering a price increase cycle due to sustained demand recovery, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 of 70 million, 150 million, and 190 million USD [19] - The stock is rated as a "buy" based on market share growth and long-term revenue potential [19] Meili Tianyuan Medical Health - The acquisition of Siyanli is expected to enhance the company's performance, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 of 320 million, 440 million, and 490 million yuan [20] - The stock is rated as a "buy" with a focus on shareholder returns [20]

Core Viewpoints - The market style is expected to rebalance in November, potentially returning to a "dumbbell" structure, as liquidity remains relatively loose and external factors like the Fed's interest rate expectations may fluctuate [1][22]. Economic Data - China's October exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3% growth, while imports grew by 1%. The trade surplus was $90.07 billion, slightly down from the previous month's $90.45 billion. For the first ten months of 2025, total trade value reached $520.46 billion, a 2.7% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The decline in exports is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a slowing global economy, compounded by increased tariffs from the U.S. [3]. Equity Market Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the global macro environment remains favorable for risk assets, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing from the Fed, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [5]. - CITIC Securities suggests that resource products may become a new investment focus due to global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps, highlighting strategic resources like rare earths and lithium as having long-term investment value [6]. - China Europe Fund emphasizes the importance of cyclical stocks and technology resonance, suggesting that the market's current valuation recovery is nearly complete, with future growth driven by earnings [7]. Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for the recovery of real estate companies' balance sheets, with a potential bottoming out of profits. The residential market shows signs of stabilization, and companies with quality investment properties are expected to perform well [11]. - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the liquor industry is undergoing a period of accelerated adjustment, with inventory clearing expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [12]. - Penghua Fund anticipates that the domestic economy will seek balance between policy support and structural optimization over the next two to three years, favoring high-quality dividend assets [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities recommends a focus on short-term credit bonds for defensive strategies, as overall credit demand is weakening [18]. - CICC predicts that monetary policy will accelerate easing due to ongoing export pressures, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19]. - Bosera Fund indicates that domestic financial policies are favorable for the bond market, enhancing supply-demand dynamics [20].

Investment Dynamics - Hermès has acquired a 15% stake in Italian fabric manufacturer Lanificio Colombo, which specializes in cashmere and rare animal fibers [3] - In Q3 of the current fiscal year, Hermès reported a 5% increase in sales, reaching €3.9 billion, with the leather goods sector performing particularly well [3] - Hermès plans to invest over €1 billion in the next three years to build three new leather workshops in France to meet the growing demand for handbags [3] Brand Dynamics - Lianhua Supermarket announced the sale of its entire stake in Yangpu Century Lianhua to a subsidiary of Bailian Group, while continuing to manage and support the brand post-sale [8] - Lavazza has opened its first coffee shop in Hong Kong, expanding its presence in major Chinese cities since establishing a joint venture in 2020 [14] Financial Performance - E.l.f. Beauty reported a 14% increase in net sales for Q2 2026, reaching $343.9 million, with adjusted net income of $40.7 million, slightly below the previous year [17] - Coty reported a 6% decline in net revenue for Q1 2026, totaling $1.577 billion, with a 19% drop in net profit compared to the previous year [19] Personnel Changes - Tory Burch appointed Joëlle Grunberg as North America President, who has extensive experience in the fashion and luxury goods sector [21] - Carlsberg Group welcomed Torsten Steenholt as the new Executive Vice President and member of the Executive Committee, focusing on supply chain integration [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai has announced a mid-term dividend and share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in the company's growth and commitment to shareholder returns. The proposed dividend is 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan, which represents 66.08% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [2]. - The report notes that the sales performance of Moutai's products has shown improvement in September and October, suggesting a recovery in demand for premium liquor. The overall pressure on liquor sales is expected to ease, with a gradual release of genuine demand as prices stabilize [2][3]. - In the beer and beverage sector, the introduction of innovative products like "Xiao Piao" by China Resources Beer and the steady growth of Uni-President's Q3 performance indicate a positive trend in the market. Uni-President reported a net profit of 2.013 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [3]. Summary by Sections White Wine - Kweichow Moutai's mid-term dividend and buyback plan is a significant indicator of the company's confidence and shareholder value focus. The stock's current dividend yield is 3.76% based on projected profits [2]. - The report emphasizes that the sales pressure in the white wine sector has peaked, with expectations for demand recovery as prices return to value [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer segment is entering a seasonal lull, but the report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and significant product contributions, such as Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [3]. - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with Uni-President's Q3 results showcasing resilience and growth potential in a challenging market [3]. Food - The high-end retail market is recovering, with significant sales growth reported in various regions, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence and spending [4]. - The report suggests that advancements in technology sectors like AI and chips are likely to drive consumption upgrades in the food industry [4].

Focus Review - China's October export performance was disappointing, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, significantly below the market expectation of 3% growth, and a previous increase of 8.3% [1] - Imports grew by 1% in October, down from a previous increase of 7.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $90.07 billion, slightly lower than the previous $90.45 billion [1] - For the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade maintained steady growth, with a total value of $520.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, including exports of $308.47 billion (up 6.2%) and imports of $211.99 billion (down 0.9%) [1] Equity Market - Morgan Asset Management expressed an optimistic outlook for risk assets over the next 6 to 18 months, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, gradual easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1] - CITIC Construction Investment is bullish on resource products, anticipating price increases driven by global monetary easing, supply-demand gaps, and domestic replenishment cycles [2] - China Europe Fund suggests that the market's struggle around the 4000-point mark reflects policy signals, increased risk appetite, and long-term capital inflows, with a focus on technology and economic cycle resonance investment opportunities [3] Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlighted that 2026 will be a critical year for the asset-liability repair of Chinese real estate companies, with expectations of a long-term profit bottom for some firms [4] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the liquor industry is undergoing an accelerated clearing adjustment, with inventory levels decreasing rapidly after reaching a bottom, suggesting potential price rebounds [6] - Penghua Fund is optimistic about the domestic economy over the next two to three years, supported by low interest rates and a shift in asset allocation towards equities, favoring high-quality dividend assets [6] Macro and Fixed Income Market - Huatai Securities recommended a focus on medium to short-term credit bonds, with a preference for bonds with strong demand and good odds [7] - CICC anticipates continued downward pressure on exports, necessitating more policy support, with expectations for accelerated monetary policy easing [8] - Bosera Fund noted that the central bank's actions to ease funding fluctuations and a friendly domestic financial policy environment support improvements in the bond market supply-demand structure [8] Asset Allocation Outlook - As of November, domestic liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, with potential fluctuations in external Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, leading to a possible rebalancing of market styles back to a barbell structure [9]

Group 1: Core Insights - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, has been undergoing adjustments since 2021, with the white liquor sector experiencing significant changes since May 2025, leading to a market sentiment shift [5][7][40] - The white liquor industry is expected to continue its adjustment phase into 2026, with a focus on left-side allocation opportunities as the sector's average dividend yield is around 3.5% and the price-to-earnings ratio is below 20 times [5][40] - The beer industry is shifting towards scenario-based expansion, with a focus on non-consumption channels and cross-category growth as the market matures [5][56][74] Group 2: White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has faced a negative revenue growth rate of 4.9% in Q2 2025, with a further decline of 18.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant pressure release in the industry [13][19] - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have reported declining revenues, with Moutai's TTM revenue at 178.6 billion and a growth rate of 8.1%, while Wuliangye's revenue has decreased by 10% from its peak [20][23] - The next high-end liquor brands are also experiencing substantial revenue drops, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye seeing declines of 77% and 36% respectively from their peak revenues [27][32] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector, particularly in beer, is witnessing a slowdown in the high-end market, with companies focusing on expanding their distribution channels and product categories to seek growth [5][56] - The condiment market is facing weak demand in the B-end restaurant sector, while the C-end is showing a clear trend towards health and convenience, with companies like Yihai International focusing on high dividend yields and overseas market expansion [5][80][90] - The dairy sector is seeing a gradual improvement in sales, particularly in low-temperature products, with companies like Yili and New Dairy focusing on enhancing their operational performance [92][94]