Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart on September 29 was met with high demand, with products selling out immediately on various official platforms [1][6] - Despite initial high prices, the market value of the products, particularly plush items, has seen a significant decline shortly after the release [3][10] Product Launch and Sales Performance - The "Star People Delicious Moments Series" includes various products such as blind box figurines, plush keychains, phone cases, pillows, and night light keychains, with the plush cookie keychain being the most popular item [1][12] - On the day of the launch, over 50,000 plush products were sold within a minute across platforms like Douyin and Taobao [3][6] - The initial retail price for the plush cookie keychain was 354 yuan, but market prices ranged from 699 to 1199 yuan before the release [1][6] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Following the launch, the market price for hidden plush items dropped from 929 yuan to below 600 yuan within hours, indicating a rapid decline in resale value [3][10] - The average transaction price for plush items fluctuated around 600 yuan shortly after the release, down from peaks of over 1000 yuan [6][10] - The average transaction price for the figurines also decreased from a peak of 956.2 yuan to around 850 yuan, nearing the original price [10] Consumer Interest and Market Sentiment - The pre-launch hype was significant, with over 50,000 users expressing interest and transaction records appearing on trading platforms even before the official sale [6][12] - Despite the price drop post-launch, the popularity of the "Star People" brand remains strong, with fans expressing concerns about potential over-speculation affecting the brand's appeal [14][16] - The "Star People" IP, one of Pop Mart's fastest-growing new brands, generated revenue of 390 million yuan in the first half of the year [16]

Core Insights - The "Star People Delicious Moments Series" blind boxes from Pop Mart have generated significant consumer interest, leading to a rush for pre-orders even before the official release [1][5] - The initial sale saw products sell out within minutes, with over 360,000 items added to carts on Tmall, while only 20,000+ items were available [1][5] Pricing and Resale Market - The resale market has seen substantial price increases, with the original price of 69 yuan for figurines rising to 119 yuan, and the hidden "Little Bear Cookie" variant reaching a peak price of 689 yuan, reflecting a nearly 10-fold markup [5][8] - Random blind boxes have seen prices increase from 59 yuan to 182 yuan, while complete sets have risen from 354 yuan to 769 yuan, indicating a markup of over 2 times [5][8] Consumer Demand and Product Popularity - The "Star People" series has shown higher resale premiums compared to the previously popular "Mini Labubu" series, indicating strong consumer demand [8] - Popular items within the series include "Star Sugar," "Macaron Moments," "Zhao Jibing," "Lazy Moments," and "Strong Bread," with a variety of merchandise announced, including plush toys and accessories [8][9] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The previous release of the "Star People Dream Weather Bureau Series" also experienced high demand, with resale prices reaching 1511 yuan, showcasing the series' consistent popularity [9] - Analysts suggest that while some price increases are driven by speculation, the active demand from consumers indicates a genuine interest in the products, highlighting a structural gap in quality IP supply [9] - For Pop Mart, sustaining long-term value will depend on continuous innovation in product offerings and maintaining strong consumer connections through beloved IPs [9]

Core Insights - The "Starry People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart was released on September 30 and sold out instantly, trending on Weibo [1] - The hidden variant "Little Bear Biscuit" saw its highest transaction price rise from 59 yuan to 929 yuan, an increase of 870 yuan, representing a nearly 15-fold premium [1] - The popularity of the series is reflected in the high demand, with over 9,000 users expressing interest in the products on the Dewu app [1] Pricing and Premiums - The single blind box price increased from 59 yuan to 249 yuan, a 3.2-fold premium [1] - The price for a complete box rose from 354 yuan to 1319 yuan, a 2.7-fold premium [1] - The top three most popular items in terms of transaction volume were "Vanilla Crisp," "Matcha Crisp," and "Salty Cookie," each with premiums exceeding 5 times [1] User Interest and Additional Products - The "Starry People Delicious Moments Series" figurines also gained significant attention, with 13,000 users indicating interest [2] - The price of a single blind box for this series increased from 69 yuan to 128 yuan, a 0.8-fold premium, while the complete box price rose from 828 yuan to 983 yuan, a 0.2-fold premium [2] - Upcoming products for the National Day holiday include various merchandise such as plush pillows and phone accessories, with the plush baguette pillow's price increasing from 169 yuan to 495 yuan, a 1.9-fold premium [2]

Group 1: TOP TOY IPO - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to strengthen Miniso's presence in the entertainment consumer sector [1] - Since its first store opening in December 2020, TOP TOY has established a comprehensive platform covering various products including figurines, 3D models, and plush toys [1] - Financial projections show revenues of 679 million yuan, 1.461 billion yuan, and 1.909 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net profits turning from a loss of 38 million yuan in 2022 to profits of 212 million yuan and 294 million yuan in 2023 and 2024 [1] Group 2: Bright Dairy Asset Sale - Bright Dairy's subsidiary, New Lite, plans to sell its North Island assets in New Zealand to Abbott for 170 million USD, with the transaction expected to close by April 2026 [2] - This sale is anticipated to increase New Lite's net profit by approximately 10 to 15 million NZD in the 2026 fiscal year [2] - The move reflects Bright Dairy's strategic shift towards optimizing its overseas asset structure and focusing on core business operations [2] Group 3: Food Safety Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has introduced new regulations for food safety responsibilities in chain restaurants, marking a shift from quantity-focused to model-focused oversight [3] - The regulations clarify definitions for chain operations, headquarters, and branches, addressing previous inconsistencies in regulatory standards [3] - Strong compliance capabilities in chain enterprises are expected to lead to valuation premiums, while smaller brands with poor management may face operational pressures [3] Group 4: New Personal Care Brand Launch - The founder of the oral care brand Canban announced the launch of a new personal care brand "Little Arrow," indicating a shift towards a multi-brand group operation model [4] - Canban aims to explore growth opportunities in three areas: targeting the elderly and children markets, expanding into niche categories like dental floss, and adapting to channel diversification trends [4] - This strategic expansion is likely to enhance brand synergy and boost market recognition of domestic personal care brands' innovation capabilities [4]

Group 1 - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to strengthen Miniso's presence in the entertainment consumption sector and create a second growth curve for the group [1] - TOP TOY has established a comprehensive platform for the潮玩 industry since opening its first store in December 2020, with a product matrix that includes figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys [1] - Financial data shows that TOP TOY's revenue increased from 679 million yuan in 2022 to 1.461 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 1.909 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits turning from a loss of 38 million yuan in 2022 to 212 million yuan in 2023 and 294 million yuan in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Bright Dairy's subsidiary, New Light, plans to sell its North Island assets in New Zealand to Abbott for 170 million USD, with the transaction expected to complete by April 2026 [2] - This sale is anticipated to enhance New Light's net profit by approximately 10 to 15 million New Zealand dollars in the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting a strategic shift towards optimizing overseas asset structure and focusing on core business [2] Group 3 - The State Administration for Market Regulation has introduced new regulations for food safety responsibilities in chain catering enterprises, marking a shift from quantity-focused to quality-focused oversight [3] - The new regulations clarify definitions for chain operations and emphasize the responsibilities of headquarters, which may lead to valuation premiums for compliant chain enterprises while putting pressure on smaller brands with lax management [3] Group 4 - The founder of the oral care brand Canban, Yin Kuo, announced the launch of a new personal care brand "Little Arrow" this year, indicating a shift towards a multi-brand group operation model [4] - Canban aims to explore new growth opportunities by focusing on the "one old one young" market, expanding into niche categories like dental floss, and adapting to channel diversification trends [4] - This strategic expansion is expected to enhance brand synergy and may lead to a reassessment of the innovation capabilities of domestic personal care brands in the capital market [4]

研究早观点 2025 年 9 月 30 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,862.53 | 0.90 | | 深证成指 | | 13,479.43 | 2.05 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,620.05 | 1.54 | | 中小板指 | | 8,328.93 | 1.85 | | 创业板指 | | 3,238.01 | 2.74 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,470.41 | 1.35 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250922-20250928）-昇腾 950 引领国产 超节点新时代，英伟达入股英特尔有望扩大 NVLINK 版图 【山证纺服】行业周报-特步开设海外首家跑步俱乐部，FILA 成为中 网独家运动鞋服赞助商 国内市场主要指数 【公司评论】美格智能(002881.SZ)：美格智能 2025 半年度报告点评- 模组+解决方案双轮驱动，多行业深耕保持领先 2019 年 2 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing significance of IP (Intellectual Property) in the潮玩 (trendy toys) market, highlighting its appeal to adults and the emotional connection it fosters, alongside the rise of the Z generation and cultural consumption upgrades [1][3] - The report aims to analyze the economic value and development potential of the IP潮玩 industry, focusing on its evolution, consumer preferences, and the business models of leading brands [1][3] Group 1: Definition and Development - IP潮玩 refers to trendy toys with high recognition and independent IP attributes, primarily targeting adults rather than children, characterized by artistic value and collectibility [1] - The潮玩 industry began in the late 1990s, evolving from a niche market linked to street culture to a mature sector, with significant growth driven by local designers and the introduction of blind box formats [2] Group 2: Market Size and Growth - The Chinese IP潮玩 market is projected to reach approximately 67.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of about 13.8% from 2020 to 2024, and is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027 [6] Group 3: Industry Chain - The IP潮玩 industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream IP sources, midstream IP operation and production, and downstream sales channels, with some companies managing the entire chain for better control [5] Group 4: Key Players - 泡泡玛特 has transformed from a retail brand to a leader in IP commercialization, achieving significant growth through innovative product offerings and strategic expansions despite regulatory challenges [9][11] - 万代南梦宫 has evolved from a toy wholesaler to a global entertainment giant, implementing an "IP axis strategy" to maximize IP value across various media [14][16] - 集卡社 has established itself as a leader in collectible card products, leveraging strong IP partnerships and a comprehensive business model to drive growth [17][19] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Over 60% of consumers frequently purchase blind boxes and figurines, with motivations centered around collection and stress relief, indicating a strong emotional connection to specific IPs [30] - Social media platforms have become the primary source for consumers to obtain information about IP潮玩, with immersive unboxing videos being the most effective marketing tool [33] Group 6: Trends and Innovations - The潮玩 market is witnessing a diversification of product categories, with blind boxes maintaining steady growth while figurines are leading in terms of growth rate [25] - New gameplay trends are emerging, with innovative concepts like "swap dolls" and "draw cards" gaining traction, indicating a shift towards more interactive consumer experiences [27] Group 7: Global Expansion - The overseas market presents new growth opportunities for Chinese潮玩 brands, with varying challenges across regions such as North America, Japan, and Southeast Asia [36] Group 8: Digital Trends - Digital潮玩, supported by blockchain technology and the metaverse, is gaining traction among younger generations, although it faces challenges such as regulatory uncertainties and market volatility [38]

记者丨刘婧汐 编辑丨高梦阳 黎雨桐 继Labubu之后，泡泡玛特星星人系列再次引发抢购潮。 计划于9月29日晚上10点上架的"星星人美味时刻系列盲盒"还未正式发售，在二手电商平台上，该系列 包括隐藏款在内的所有产品已有商家挂出链接，且已有不少买家出手预订。 正式开售后，两款星星人系列产品均为秒空。开售十分钟后，天猫页面信息显示，小饼干毛绒挂件有超 36万人加购，但首批天猫官方旗舰店放货仅2万+件，手办盲盒玩具摆件显示已售3万+。 | 随机款盲盒 ¥89.99 | | 招吉布丁 ¥119.99 | | --- | --- | --- | | 马卡龙时刻 ¥109.99 | | 星星糖 ¥99.99 | | 橘子果酱 | ¥99.99 | 栗子奶油 ¥99.99 | | 幸福蝴蝶酥 ¥99.99 | | 咖啡奶油浴 ¥99.99 | | 饼干屋 ¥79.99 | | 强壮面包 ¥75.99 | | 茶壶伯爵 | ¥60.99 | 披萨的永恒 ¥60.99 | | 懒惰时刻 | ¥60.99 | | 相比发售价格，二手平台上原价69元的手办产品最高涨至119元，系列产品内原价59元的毛绒挂件则更 受欢迎，隐藏款"小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart, which has generated significant consumer interest and high resale prices on secondary markets, indicating strong demand and potential for the brand to diversify beyond its reliance on the Labubu series [1][4][8]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - The "Star People Delicious Moments Series" blind boxes were set to launch on September 29, and even before the official sale, products were being pre-ordered on second-hand platforms [1]. - Upon official release, the products sold out within minutes, with over 360,000 people adding the plush cookie keychain to their carts, while only 20,000 units were available on Tmall [1]. - The resale prices on second-hand platforms have surged, with the original price of 69 yuan for the figurine rising to 119 yuan, and the hidden variant "Little Bear Cookie" reaching a peak price of 689 yuan, reflecting a nearly 10-fold premium [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and IP Diversification - Concerns had previously been raised about Pop Mart's heavy reliance on the Labubu series, which accounted for 34.7% of the company's total revenue of 138.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [8]. - The introduction of the Star People series has shown promising results, generating over 100 million yuan in its first year and 390 million yuan in the first half of 2025, making it one of the fastest-growing new IPs for Pop Mart [8]. - The Star People series emphasizes themes of warmth and healing, resonating with the emotional consumption trends among younger consumers [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Stock Performance - As of September 29, Pop Mart's stock closed at 261.8 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 351.6 billion HKD, reflecting a 19.3% decline over the past month [8].

Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic indicators show a marginal recovery in infrastructure work volume since September, with expectations for continued monetary policy support to stabilize the funding environment [1][21] - Strong economic data from the US has tempered interest rate cut expectations, with analysts raising growth forecasts for the US economy for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [1][22] Fixed Income - The secondary market for capital bonds saw a weekly transaction volume of approximately 229.9 billion yuan, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2] - The issuance of green bonds totaled 30.974 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 0.414 billion yuan from the previous week [3] Banking Sector - The bond investment yield for 42 listed banks in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.42 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 3.82% from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - Different types of banks show varied performance, with state-owned banks maintaining relatively stable profitability due to their larger bond portfolios [6] Gas Industry - The gas industry is expected to benefit from cost optimization and a more rational pricing mechanism, with a focus on companies with US gas sources potentially mitigating tariff impacts [7] - Recommended companies include Xin'ao Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy, with dividend yields ranging from 4.0% to 6.4% [7] Retail Industry - The planned spin-off of TOP TOY from Miniso is anticipated to help realize value re-evaluation for the parent company, with TOP TOY's valuation reaching 10 billion HKD [8] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is witnessing a 12.9% week-on-week increase in passenger car sales, with significant developments from companies like Chery and Li Auto [9][10] - The industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from electric vehicle benefits to a focus on smart vehicle innovations [10] Power Equipment Industry - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow by 30-40% in the coming years, driven by new policies and market needs [11] - The lithium battery sector is also projected to see increased production, with prices expected to rise further [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The insurance sector is benefiting from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in sales of savings products [13] - Securities firms are expected to see growth from market recovery and favorable policy environments [13] Electronic Industry - The PCB industry is undergoing significant upgrades driven by AI and high-speed communication needs, with a projected market value of 94.7 billion USD by 2029 [14][15] - Key players are ramping up high-end production capabilities to meet increasing demand [15] Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with recommendations for companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [12] Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to perform well due to favorable macroeconomic narratives, with gold prices showing a significant increase [18]