美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.25%，纳指跌0.83%，标普500指数跌0.53%。 热门科技股多数下跌，苹果、英伟达跌超1%。金属原材料与采矿涨幅居前，泛美白银涨超7%，美洲白银公司涨超4%，南方铜业涨超2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.54%，热门中概股多数上涨。 值得注意的是，特斯拉跌超14%，盘后仍跌超3%。特斯拉中国5月新能源乘用车批发销量为61662辆，同比下降15%，同月特斯拉在欧洲多国的销量暴跌。 据了解，当前美国的载人航天活动极大依赖美国太空探索技术公司的"龙"飞船。 不仅如此，马斯克还 直接在社交媒体爆猛料，称特朗普涉嫌爱泼斯坦性犯罪案，这就是美国政府没有将爱泼斯坦档案公布的真正原因。 马斯克@特朗普的社交媒体账号发帖称："是时候扔出重磅炸弹了：@realDonaldTrump出现在爱泼斯坦的档案里。这才是这些档案至今未被公开的真正原 因。祝你今天愉快，DJT！" 此外， 特朗普在白宫对记者们表示，他对马斯克"很失望"，因为马斯克比其他人都了解"大而美"法案的内容是怎么回事，却"突然之间"掉过头来反对法 案。接着马斯克迅速发帖"反击"，称特朗普说谎、他之前根本没 ...

Group 1: Pest Control Industry - The pest control concept saw significant strength in the morning, with the sector index rising over 3%, reaching a two-year high [2] - Major companies like Su Li Co., Longqing Co., and Guangkang Biochemical experienced notable stock price increases, with Su Li Co. hitting the limit up for the second consecutive day [2] - The National Agricultural Technology Center predicts a resurgence of 23 major pests affecting key crops by 2025, with an expected affected area of 2.518 billion acres, a 6.2% increase from 2024 [4] Group 2: Glyphosate and Agricultural Chemicals - The glyphosate industry is undergoing a supply-demand restructuring, with domestic companies likely to leverage cost advantages [5] - Related sectors such as agricultural chemicals and fertilizers also showed strength, with companies like Shenda Co. and Lier Chemical seeing significant stock price increases [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector, particularly silver, saw a collective surge, with the sector index rising over 2% [6] - Domestic silver futures experienced a significant increase, breaking multiple price thresholds and reaching a historical high [7] - The market's risk aversion, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, has led to increased purchases of gold and silver, with gold prices rising 42% over the past year and silver lagging at 15% [8][9] Group 4: Silver Demand and Supply Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply-demand gap, with global silver demand projected to reach 36,700 tons against a supply of 31,700 tons in 2024, resulting in a shortfall of 5,000 tons [11] - The photovoltaic industry is a key driver of silver demand, with industrial silver usage exceeding 40%, and the transition to N-type solar cells increasing silver consumption by 40%-100% per unit [11] - Citic Securities anticipates a long-term supply shortage in the silver market, suggesting that the correlation between silver prices and supply-demand dynamics may strengthen in the future [11]

港股午评：恒生指数跌0.21% 新消费概念股延续回调行情 金十数据6月6日讯，港股主要指数表现弱势，止步三连涨行情。截止午盘，恒生指数跌0.21%，恒生科 技指数跌0.59%。盘面上，科技股普跌，蔚来汽车(09866.HK)跌超5%，阿里健康(00241.HK)跌超3%，阅 文集团(00772.HK)、舜宇光学科技(02382.HK)跌超2%。快手(01024.HK)逆势涨超6%。现货白银突破36 美元/盎司，带动黄金股、有色金属齐涨，中国白银集团(00815.HK)大涨23%。电信股、短视频概念股、 风电股、煤炭股表现活跃。下跌方面，新消费概念股延续回调行情，蜜雪集团(02097.HK)、古茗 (01364.HK)跌超7%，布鲁克(00325.HK)、毛戈平(01318.HK)跌超6%。 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices reached $36 per ounce, marking a more than 4% increase, the highest since February 2012 [1] - Bank of America predicts silver prices could hit $40 by the end of this year or early 2026 [1] - The gold-silver ratio has risen to 1:100, significantly above the historical average of 53-66 ounces, indicating potential undervaluation of silver or overvaluation of gold [1] Group 2 - Silver's industrial demand is surging, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which accounts for over 40% of silver usage [2] - The transition from P-type to N-type solar cells has increased silver consumption by 40% to 100% per unit [2] - Global silver supply-demand balance shifted to a deficit in 2021, with a projected shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2024 despite a 2-3% increase in supply [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts are driving up precious metal prices, with silver benefiting from its dual role as an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4 - China Silver Group reported a 20.97% decline in revenue to 4.319 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit drop of 31.5% [4] - Zijin Mining's Q1 revenue increased by 5.55% to 78.928 billion yuan, with a net profit surge of 62.39% [4] - Jiangxi Copper's Q1 revenue fell by 8.90% to 111.611 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 13.85% [4]

上期所原油期货夜盘收跌1.07%，报462.6元/桶。沪金主力合约收涨0.45%，报786元/克，沪银主力合约 收跌0.00%，报8474元/千克。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating tariff policies, with gold reaching a near 20-day high of $3417.8 per ounce [2] - The increase in gold prices has also led to a rise in jewelry gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook adjusting its gold jewelry price to 1020 yuan per gram, up by 22 yuan from the previous day [2] - The gold-silver ratio has experienced substantial fluctuations, reaching a five-year high, indicating potential market corrections in the future [2][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the increase in U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has heightened global economic uncertainty [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May showed a decline in new import orders, reflecting concerns over supply chain stability, further driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [3][7] - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with a 5.31% increase compared to gold's 2.8%, driven by the extreme gold-silver ratio and market sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - As of June 3, the gold-silver ratio reached 1:100, indicating that one ounce of gold can be exchanged for 100 ounces of silver, significantly higher than the historical average of 53-66 ounces [4] - This extreme ratio suggests that either silver is severely undervalued or gold is overvalued, with a high probability of mean reversion in the medium to long term [4] - Historical data indicates that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, there is a 70% chance of silver prices rising, targeting a ratio range of 60-70 ounces [4] Group 4 - The volatility of silver is greater due to its smaller market size compared to gold, meaning that equal capital inflows can lead to larger price movements in silver [5] - The improvement in China's manufacturing PMI indicates a gradual economic recovery, which is expected to boost industrial demand for silver, as it is widely used in various sectors [5] - The anticipated economic recovery is likely to increase silver demand, further supporting its price [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.86 on June 3, which reduced the holding cost of gold and contributed to its price increase [6] - The ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies and high fiscal deficits has shaken investor confidence in dollar assets, leading to a potential decline in the dollar's value [6] - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has heightened concerns over the sustainability of the fiscal deficit, prompting capital outflows from dollar assets [6] Group 6 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.5, indicating a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity for three consecutive months, which adds pressure to the dollar index [7] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with a 99.1% probability of no rate change in June, reflecting cautious monetary policy amid economic weakness [7] - The combination of weak manufacturing data and inflation expectations suggests limited potential for rate cuts in the near term, impacting gold prices [7] Group 7 - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly if rate cuts are implemented, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [8] - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to further elevate gold's appeal as a safe haven asset, potentially driving prices higher [8] - However, gold prices may face resistance at previous highs around $3400-$3450 per ounce, and any easing of trade tensions could lead to price corrections [9]

Group 1 - The opening price for Au99.95 was 782.00, with a closing price of 782.00, reflecting a price increase of 1.88% [2] - Au99.99 opened at 786.50 and closed at 778.50, showing a decrease of 1.26% [2] - The trading volume for Au99.95 was 2, resulting in a transaction amount of 1,564,000 [2] Group 2 - Au(T+D) opened at 785.02, reaching a high of 787.05, and closed at 778.12, with a price increase of 1.33% [3] - The trading volume for Au(T+D) was 65,402, with a transaction amount of 51,160,527,340 [3] - Pt99.95 opened at 253.90, with a closing price of 253.50, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% [3] Group 3 - NYAuTN06 opened at 779.60 and closed at 776.75, with a price increase of 1.68% [4] - NYAuTN12 opened at 784.95 and closed at 780.30, showing a price increase of 1.53% [4] - The trading volume for NYAuTN06 was 20.6, while NYAuTN12 had a volume of 26.4 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent judicial ruling against former President Trump's global tariff policy has led to a decrease in market concerns regarding international trade, resulting in a drop in gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, as reflected in the May meeting minutes, suggests potential challenges with rising inflation and unemployment, which may further impact gold's safe-haven demand [1] - Gold prices have shown a significant decline, testing the support level around 3245, with traders advised to monitor the effectiveness of the 3210-3250 range as a critical support zone [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have experienced volatility influenced by industrial demand and macroeconomic factors, with a recommendation for short-term trading strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5] - The recent price action in silver indicates a potential breakout above the resistance level of 33.45-33.5, but traders are advised to remain cautious of false breakouts [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...