Core Points - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.55% on October 13, with Jingxing Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.5, down 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47, down 0.93% [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Yibin Paper (600793) closed at 24.44, up 2.69% with a trading volume of 111,500 shares and a turnover of 270 million yuan [1] - Minfeng Special Paper (600235) closed at 7.32, up 2.38% with a trading volume of 173,800 shares and a turnover of 125 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Qifeng New Materials (002521) at 9.46, up 1.94%, and Minshida (920394) at 43.11, up 1.10% [1] Decliners - Zhixing Paper (002067) led the decline at 6.24, down 3.11% with a trading volume of 1.8555 million shares and a turnover of 1.157 billion yuan [2] - Other significant decliners include Bohui Paper (600966) at 5.05, down 2.13%, and Qingshan Paper (600103) at 3.47, down 1.70% [2] Capital Flow - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 182 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 234 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows include Yibin Paper with a net inflow of 17.8482 million yuan from institutional investors, while Huawang Technology (605377) experienced a net outflow of 23.1535 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light manufacturing industry, emphasizing the potential for recovery and growth in various segments [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall export value for furniture, entertainment products, paper, and packaging printing from January to August was 898.9 billion, 2132.4 billion, 524.5 billion, and 401.2 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.9%, -1.2%, +2.2%, and -1.4% [6]. - Domestic industry performance from January to August showed a year-on-year increase in value added for furniture at -5.1%, entertainment products at +0.9%, paper at +3.2%, and packaging printing at +1.3% [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The report highlights that the information technology sector is enhancing global production efficiency, leading to ongoing supply innovation and product upgrades [6]. - The report suggests that the pet and personal care sectors are still in a favorable economic cycle, while the furniture sector is in a bottoming process [6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies related to pets, personal care, and the export chain, as these areas are expected to benefit from ongoing trends in supply chain innovation and product upgrades [6]. - Specific companies are highlighted with projected revenues and profit margins for Q3 2025, indicating a range of expected growth rates [7].

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations for importing recycled paper pulp, effective from October 10, require importers to specify the production method (dry or wet) on customs declarations, aiming to combat the import of "foreign garbage" [2][3]. Group 1: Production Methods - The dry method involves manual sorting, crushing, and pressing into blocks, lacking effective impurity removal and sterilization processes [3][7]. - The wet method utilizes hydraulic pulping, impurity removal, pressure screening, concentration, and sheet formation, aligning with industrial pulp production standards [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Implications - The new customs requirement for "dry and wet separation" is seen as a strategic move to enhance inspection efficiency and target the import of solid waste more effectively [7]. - The national standard for recycled paper pulp specifies that it applies to pulp used as a fiber raw material, excluding merely sorted, cut, or packaged waste paper fragments, indicating that products from the dry method do not meet this standard [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - Starting from October 10, new regulations will be implemented for the import of recycled paper pulp, requiring importers to specify the production method used, either "dry" or "wet" [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on October 9, 2025, detailing the new declaration requirements for imported recycled paper pulp [1] - Importers or their agents must indicate the production method in the declaration form, which aims to differentiate between "dry" and "wet" processing methods [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Many industry professionals are not familiar with the definitions of "dry" and "wet" methods, leading to potential confusion and attempts to misclassify dry processing as acceptable [1] - Experts provided video demonstrations of the "dry" and "wet" processing methods, highlighting significant differences in their industrial processes [1][2] Group 3: Process Comparison - The dry method involves manual sorting, crushing, and pressing into blocks, lacking effective impurity removal and sterilization steps [1] - The wet method includes hydraulic pulping, sand removal, pressure screening, concentration, and sheet formation, aligning with industrial pulp production standards [1] Group 4: Standards and Implications - The national standard for recycled paper pulp specifies that it applies to pulp used as a fiber raw material, excluding merely sorted, cut, and packaged waste paper fragments [5] - The dry processing method is deemed unsuitable for the national standard, as it omits essential production steps, effectively categorizing it as "foreign waste" [5] - The "dry-wet separation" requirement is seen as a strategic measure to enhance customs inspections and combat the import of solid waste [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Chengtong Carbon Sink Management (Hunan) Co., Ltd., has won the bid for the forestry carbon sink resource cooperation development project in Fuyuan County, Qujing City, Yunnan Province [1] Group 1 - The project development scope includes all forest land in Fuyuan County, Qujing City, Yunnan Province [1] - The initial cooperation period is set for 20 years, utilizing a profit-sharing model for collaboration [1] - The implementation of this project is expected to have a positive impact on the company's annual operating performance and enhance its influence in the carbon sink market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

| 日期 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/09/30 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 4788.00 | 4804.00 | 4834.00 | 4878.00 | 5016.00 | | 折美元价 | 586.14 | 588.02 | 592.24 | 597.56 | 613.50 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.33306% | -0.62060% | -0.90201% | -2.75120% | -0.86957% | | 山东银星基差 | 747 | 731 | 731 | 687 | 594 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 772 | 756 | 726 | 682 | 609 | 以13%增值税计算 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/13 SP主力合约收盘价： 4788.00 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Company Background and Industry Position - Linping Development, established in 2002, specializes in the research, production, and sales of corrugated paper and boxboard products, becoming a significant player in the paper industry in Anhui Province, with a 35.65% share of the province's paper and board output in 2024 [2][4] - The company has a current capacity of 1.2 million tons and ranks among the top 30 paper producers in China, but it is classified as a second-tier medium-sized enterprise, significantly trailing behind first-tier companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper [4] Financial Performance and Capital Structure - Linping Development's revenue has declined from 2.88 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.49 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits fluctuating between 154 million yuan and 212 million yuan during the same period [7][12] - The company plans to raise 1.2 billion yuan through its IPO to fund capacity expansion projects, despite its net profit in 2024 being only 153 million yuan, which raises concerns about the sustainability of such fundraising [5][6] Governance and Control Issues - The actual controller, Li Jianshe, holds 84.86% of the shares, leading to a highly concentrated ownership structure that may pose governance risks [8][11] - Li's dual role as a community leader and business executive raises questions about potential conflicts of interest and the overall governance structure of the company [10][11] Dependency on Tax Incentives - Linping Development's reliance on tax incentives is concerning, with tax benefits accounting for over 80% of its net profit in 2024, indicating a lack of sustainable profit generation from core operations [13][14] Capacity Utilization and Expansion Plans - The company's capacity utilization rates for corrugated paper have been below optimal levels, with 2024 showing a utilization rate of only 76.15%, yet it plans to double its production capacity [16][18] Debt Management and Cash Flow Concerns - Although the company's interest-bearing debt has decreased significantly, the reduction may indicate a contraction in business operations to maintain cash flow, raising questions about its future investment capabilities [19][20] Research and Development Investment - Linping Development's R&D expenditure in 2024 was only 83.8 million yuan, representing 3.37% of its revenue, which is below the industry average, suggesting inadequate investment in innovation [20][21] Safety and Internal Management Issues - The company has reported multiple employee fatalities, highlighting potential weaknesses in its safety management practices, despite claims of having established comprehensive safety protocols [24][25] Customer Concentration and Potential Conflicts - Linping Development's customer base is highly concentrated, with its largest client accounting for 4.59% of its revenue in 2024, raising concerns about the stability of its revenue streams [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of defensive assets and manufacturers with overseas production capabilities amid fluctuations in the trade environment between China and the U.S. Recommended stocks include Meiyingsen, Yutong Technology, and Yongxin Co., with a focus on companies like Jiangxin Home and Aopu Technology [1][5]. - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to see a steady performance in Q3, with leading companies in personal care maintaining stable operations and overseas manufacturers strengthening their competitive edge [1][5]. Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 0.71% from October 8 to October 10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.51% [11]. - Key companies expected to perform well include Meiyingsen (projected Q3 net profit growth of 20%-30%), Yutong Technology (5%-15%), and Yongxin Co. (0%-10%) [6][7]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing pressure, with a notable bankruptcy in the custom home industry reflecting challenges for smaller firms. However, leading companies are expected to gain market share as demand stabilizes [5][6]. - The report suggests a left-side investment opportunity in home furnishing stocks, particularly those with high dividend yields [5]. Paper and Packaging - The report notes a mixed performance in the paper and packaging sector, with prices for various paper types showing fluctuations. For instance, double glue paper prices decreased by 50 RMB/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased by 65.62 RMB/ton [37]. - The overall revenue for the paper and paper products industry saw a decline of 1.9% year-on-year from January to August 2025, indicating a challenging environment [46][48]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment is expected to benefit from a strong Q4, with companies like Zhengkang Oral Care and Mingyue Lens projected to see revenue growth of 10%-20% and 0%-10%, respectively [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the personal care sector, particularly with brands expanding their marketing channels [6]. Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on imported furniture and cabinetry, which may benefit companies with established overseas production capabilities [6]. - Companies like Zhongxin Co. and Jiangxin Home are highlighted as key players in the export chain, with expected net profit declines of 20%-10% for Q3 [6]. Cost Tracking - The report provides insights into cost trends, noting a decrease in shipping costs and fluctuations in raw material prices, which could impact overall profitability in the sector [33][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. With abundant supply and inventory accumulation during the holiday, pulp prices are likely to stay weak. Affected by the overall macro - market atmosphere and its own weak fundamentals, the market is unlikely to improve in the short term [92]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of October 9, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 482,000 tons, up 30,000 tons (6.6% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1,395,000 tons, down 30,000 tons (2.1% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 54,000 tons, up 13,000 tons (31.7% MoM). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2,077,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (2.2% MoM) [5][6]. - Jilin Chenming Paper resumed production on September 28, 2025, after 11 months of shutdown. It is expected to achieve an output value of 160 million yuan by the end of 2025 and over 1 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On October 10, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 732 yuan/ton, up 15.46% MoM and 64.86% YoY; the basis of Russian Needle was 262 yuan/ton, up 42.39% MoM and 495.45% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 470 yuan/ton, up 4.44% MoM and 17.50% YoY [13]. - The 11 - 01 month - spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 13.28% MoM; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 58 yuan/ton, down 141.67% MoM [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The needle - broadleaf spread converged. On October 10, 2025, the spread of Silver Star - Goldfish was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 11.19% MoM and 12.41% YoY; the spread of Russian Needle - Goldfish was 800 yuan/ton, down 18.37% MoM and 23.81% YoY [23]. - The import profit of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On October 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 179 yuan/ton, down 209.51% MoM and 3921.24% YoY; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 165.35 yuan/ton, up 370% MoM and down 360.36% YoY [26]. - The price of softwood pulp in the Shandong market decreased compared with before the holiday. On October 10, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 2.30% MoM and 10.97% YoY [28]. - The price of hardwood pulp slightly increased due to the external price support. On October 10, 2025, the price of Goldfish was 4,250 yuan/ton, up 0.71% MoM and down 10.53% YoY [32]. - The price of natural and chemimechanical pulp: On October 10, 2025, the price of Venus was 4,850 yuan/ton, down 1.02% MoM and 10.19% YoY; the price of Kunhe was 3,700 yuan/ton, unchanged MoM and up 2.78% YoY [35]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased. On October 10, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,160 yuan/ton, up 3.57% MoM [39]. - The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased. On October 10, 2025, the daily average price of chemimechanical pulp in China was 3,825 yuan/ton, unchanged MoM and up 2.00% YoY; the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo hardwood pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 3.53% MoM and down 12.87% YoY [43]. - In August 2025, the European port inventory increased MoM, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY [46]. - In August 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment was low, and the inventory was high; the hardwood pulp shipment remained high, but the inventory days were low [48]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Finland, Chile, and the US) to China increased significantly MoM, and the performance was neutral YoY. In August, the export volume of Canadian softwood pulp to China continued to grow. In September, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased MoM [53]. - In August 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased MoM but was at a high level YoY. In September, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China increased significantly MoM, the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased MoM, and the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China continued to decline MoM [54]. - In August 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 5.01% MoM, hardwood pulp by 6.92% MoM, and chemimechanical pulp by 27.41% MoM [58]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was weakly consolidated. The supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the support for the pulp market was insufficient [62]. - The average price of coated paper fluctuated downward. Affected by the macro - environment and electronic media, the demand was weak, and the support for the pulp market was limited [66]. - The price of white cardboard slightly increased. The market supply was stable, and the market transaction gradually returned to normal [70]. - The market of tissue paper was sorted within the range, with stable prices and limited support from the raw pulp market [74]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area rebounded slightly seasonally MoM, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [78]. 3.3.4 Inventory - The futures inventory: On October 10, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 225,300 tons, down 0.36% MoM and 40.33% YoY; in factories, it was 6,400 tons, down 30.30% MoM and 76.63% YoY [81]. - The spot inventory: The sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports increased. During the holiday, the arrival volume was normal, but the shipment volume slowed down, leading to inventory accumulation [87].