最近A股市场热闹非凡，半导体、医疗器械、稀土永磁轮番上阵，上证指数四连阳，外资回流，私募加仓，一切看起来都很美好。但作为一个在量化投资领 域摸爬滚打多年的上海人，我深知这表面的繁华背后，藏着多少散户看不见的暗流涌动。 机构专家，有时候真的是"浆糊"，券商素来牛心熊胆，总要提示风险，但又说向好趋势不变。表面看，这就是浆糊，实际浆糊的背后，一些大实话不肯说， 说没有神秘感。就是为何大趋势不变，就是因为他们身处一线，自然清楚钱在不断通过ETF、私募、公募、重新激活的股民账户进来。 真正的风险，根本不是中报风险，而是你看不清具体的机构动作，导致了这么多股票， 二、定价权才是股市的本质 股市争夺的从来不是对错，而是定价权。没有定价权的一方，永远是被收割的韭菜。而定价权，永远掌握在机构手里。 机构投资者也是一百个心眼。但无论他们怎么玩花样，最终都要落实到交易行为上。这就好比黄浦江再浑浊，水质检测数据总能告诉你真相。 一、专家观点为何总是"浆糊"？ 最近中报预增概念炒得火热，但同样是预增股，「盛屯矿业」和「齐峰新材」的表现却天差地别。有人说是行业不同，有人说市场情绪使然。要我说，这些 都是表象。 上面两张图中的橙色柱体就是 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market's non-ferrous metal sector has seen over 50 companies release their 2025 mid-year performance forecasts, with more than 80% expecting positive results and nearly 50% anticipating significant growth [1] - The main drivers for performance growth in the sector include rising prices and volumes of mineral products, as well as cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures adopted by companies [1] - For copper companies, four have projected a net profit increase of over 40% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by price and sales volume increases, expansion into high-end applications, and cost control measures [1] Group 2 - Hunan Gold expects a net profit of between 613.31 million and 700.92 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60%, primarily due to rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [2] - Zhuhai Group anticipates a net profit of between 560 million and 650 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50.97% to 75.23%, attributed to rising precious metal prices and improved operational efficiency [2] - Hunan Silver forecasts a net profit of between 6 million and 8.5 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.23% to 46.25%, driven by increased production and favorable market conditions for precious metals [3] Group 3 - Weiling Co. expects to break even with a projected net profit of between 0 and 5 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 100% to 109.82%, due to new multi-metal mining operations and cost reductions [3]

资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入1.67亿元，占比成交额6.4%。其中，超大单净流入2.46亿元、占成 交额9.41%，大单净流出7892.95万元、占成交额3.01%，中单净流出流出11344.86万元、占成交额 4.33%，小单净流出5403.48万元、占成交额2.06%。 来源：金融界 紫金矿业最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入789.28亿元、同比增长5.55%，归属净 利润101.67亿元，同比增长62.39%，扣非净利润98.81亿元，同比增长58.76%，流动比率1.026、速动比 率0.704、资产负债率54.89%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于龙岩市，是一家以从事有 色金属矿采选业为主的企业。企业注册资本263281.7224万人民币，实缴资本263265.7124万人民币。公 司法定代表人为邹来昌。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月8日收盘，紫金矿业（601899）报收于20.54元，上涨1.18%，换手率0.62%， 成交量127.65万手，成交金额26.19亿元。 通过天眼查大数据分析，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司共对外投资了7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals industry is influenced by macro - economic factors such as global GDP growth, China's economic trends, and the Fed's monetary policy. The industry shows strong cyclicality, and there are opportunities and challenges in different segments like gold and copper [14][24][30] - The industry is experiencing several development trends, including digital transformation, globalization of resource allocation, and safety upgrades [65][70][75] - The performance of benchmark non - ferrous metal enterprises has generally improved, with growth in revenue, profit, and efficiency indicators [84][88] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Analysis - Global GDP growth was about 3.9% in 2024, with the top ten countries accounting for 45% and a weighted growth rate of 4%. In 2025Q1, China's economy maintained rapid growth, and the full - year outlook is positive, providing a core driving force for industrial demand [11] - In 2025, the global GDP is expected to continue growing, but the growth rate may slow down. China's local governments are confident in economic growth, with most provincial GDP targets set above 5% [14] - China's CPI showed a mild decline in June 2025, but there are positive signals. The PPI of non - ferrous metal mining and smelting industries maintained positive year - on - year growth [18] - In 2025, China's manufacturing and infrastructure investment maintained growth, while real estate investment declined. High - tech manufacturing and infrastructure investment in areas like water conservancy and transportation are strong [21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024 led to a rise in non - ferrous metal prices, especially gold, which had a significant annual increase [24] 3.2 Industry Competition Pattern - Non - ferrous metals are basic materials for the national economy, and China has a wide variety of non - ferrous metal mineral resources. The industry is at the upstream of the manufacturing chain and is highly cyclical [25][27] - In 2024, the non - ferrous metal industry in China had good development, with total revenue of 9.0 trillion yuan and a profit of 423.9 billion yuan, both increasing by 14% year - on - year [32] - The production of ten non - ferrous metals in China reached 7,919 tons in 2024, a record high, and is expected to reach 100 million tons in 2026, with aluminum accounting for 56% [38] - The concentration of the non - ferrous metal industry is increasing, with the CR5 of listed companies' revenue and net profit rising to 45% and 49% respectively [42] 3.3 Development Trend Prediction - The digital transformation of the non - ferrous metal industry is promoted by policies, aiming to cultivate more than 15 digital transformation benchmark factories by 2026 [65] - Chinese non - ferrous metal enterprises are accelerating the "going - out" strategy, extending the industrial chain overseas from "mining" to "smelting" [70] - With the rise in metal prices, the industry's production capacity is being released. However, deep - mining safety risks are increasing, and new regulations are promoting enterprise safety standardization [75] 3.4 Industry Organization Efficiency Analysis - The "Five - Efficiency" analysis model is used to analyze the organizational efficiency of non - ferrous metal enterprises from five dimensions: human efficiency, yuan efficiency, cost efficiency, asset efficiency, and market efficiency [82] - The performance of benchmark enterprises has generally improved, with revenue and net profit increasing by 25% and 52% respectively in 2024 [84] - In terms of human efficiency, per - capita revenue and per - capita net profit increased by 23% and 46% respectively year - on - year, and the 3 - year CAGR was 12% and 25% respectively [88] - In terms of yuan efficiency, the labor cost efficiency of benchmark enterprises continued to improve, and there was a gradient differentiation pattern among enterprises [95] - In terms of cost efficiency, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of benchmark enterprises increased by 30% and 27% respectively year - on - year [101]

此外，赤峰黄金此前发布业绩预告，今年上半年预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为10.80亿元到 11.30亿元，同比增加52.01%到59.04%。公告称，业绩增长主要原因为本报告期黄金销售价格同比上升 约41.76%，且成本费用得到有效控制。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，赤峰黄金发布公告，在老挝万象矿业塞班矿区发现富含金的斑岩型金铜矿床，并发布其首个 符合JORC标准的矿产资源量估算。初始矿产资源量估计为1.315亿吨，金当量品位为0.81克/吨，黄金当 量金属量约106.9吨；其中包括控制资源量级别9370万吨，每吨0.86克金当量，相当于258万盎司金当 量。 智通财经获悉，赤峰黄金(06693)高开近5%，截至发稿，涨4.91%，报27.8港元，成交额947.98万港元。 ...

资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入3514.03万元，占比成交额6.28%。其中，超大单净流入865.55万 元、占成交额1.55%，大单净流入2648.47万元、占成交额4.74%，中单净流出流出13.00万元、占成交额 0.02%，小单净流出3501.03万元、占成交额6.26%。 西藏矿业最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入6774.12万元、同比减少54.16%，归属 净利润1343.99万元，同比减少156.77%，扣非净利润1773.40万元，同比减少193.05%，流动比率2.355、 速动比率2.257、资产负债率47.90%。 来源：金融界 天眼查商业履历信息显示，西藏矿业发展股份有限公司，成立于1997年，位于拉萨市，是一家以从事有 色金属矿采选业为主的企业。企业注册资本52081.924万人民币，实缴资本9608.34万人民币。公司法定 代表人为张金涛。 通过天眼查大数据分析，西藏矿业发展股份有限公司共对外投资了9家企业，参与招投标项目495次，专 利信息15条，此外企业还拥有行政许可21个。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月7日收盘，西藏矿业（000762）报收于22.18 ...

Core Insights - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (06693) announced the discovery of a gold-rich porphyry copper-gold deposit in the Vientiane mining area of Laos, along with its first JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate [1] - The mineral resource estimation process took only 14 months from exploration to JORC compliance [1] - The initial estimated mineral resource is 131.5 million tons with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 grams per ton, amounting to approximately 3.44 million ounces of gold equivalent [1] - The controlled resource amount is 93.7 million tons with a grade of 0.86 grams per ton, equating to about 2.58 million ounces of gold equivalent [1] - There is significant potential to increase the current mineral resource due to unclosed mineralization at depth [1] - Preliminary metallurgical test results indicate an overall gold recovery rate of 88% and a copper recovery rate of 88.5% [1]

赤峰黄金公告，万象矿业在老挝万象矿业塞班矿区首次发现富金斑岩型金铜矿床，并发布首个符合 JORC标准的矿产资源量估算。初始矿产资源量估计为1.31亿吨，0.81克╱吨金当量，相当于344万盎司 金当量。其中控制资源量级别为9370万吨，每吨0.86克金当量，相当于258万盎司金当量。初步冶金测 试结果表明，金整体选矿回收率为88%，铜整体选矿回收率为88.5%。塞班矿山位于老挝中南部，该新 发现有望增加现有的矿产资源量。预计在2026年第一季度完成第二阶段钻探活动和更新的矿产资源量估 计后，将宣布新发现的矿产资源量的进一步更新。 ...

Group 1 - Eight state-owned listed companies in Hunan Province have disclosed their 2025 semi-annual performance forecasts or formal reports, including Hunan Gold, Hunan Silver, Xinwufeng, and Jinjian Rice Industry [2] - Hunan Gold expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 613 million to 701 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a significant increase of 40% to 60% compared to 438 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [2] - Hunan Silver anticipates a net profit of 60 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.23% to 46.25%, attributed to improved management and rising prices of precious metals [3] Group 2 - Two state-owned listed companies are expected to achieve a turnaround from loss to profit in the first half of 2025 [4] - Xiangdian Co. has accelerated its strategic layout in new industries, successfully launching Hunan's first pure electric transport ship and achieving significant breakthroughs in core technologies [5] - Xiangdian Co. plans to acquire a 12.5% stake in Tongda Electromagnetic Energy from its controlling shareholder for 208 million yuan, which is expected to generate market anticipation [5]

格隆汇8月7日丨赤峰黄金(600988.SH)公布，控股子公司LaneXangMineralsLimitedCompany（简称"万象 矿业"）于2025年6月末完成了SND金铜矿项目第一阶段资源勘探工作，SRKConsulting(China)Ltd.（简 称"SRK"）于2025年8月7日出具了符合《澳大拉西亚勘查结果、矿产资源量与矿石储量报告规范》2012 年版本（简称"JORC规范"）的《塞班SND金铜项目矿产资源估算报告》。 截止2025年6月30日，SRK考虑SND项目未来有可能采用崩落法进行井工方式开采，仅使用边界品位报 告了矿产资源。SND项目采用边界品位0.40克/吨黄金当量（AuEq）进行资源报告，约有9,370万吨"控 制的"级别的资源量，平均品位为0.57克/吨金和0.27%铜；3,780万吨"推断的"级别的资源量，平均品位 为0.46克/吨金和0.22%铜；合计矿石量1.315亿吨，金当量品位0.81克/吨，黄金当量金属量约106.9吨。 本次资源估算是基于公司位于老挝人民民主共和国（简称"老挝"）的控股子公司万象矿业塞班矿区内的 新发现——SND金铜矿项目的首次矿产资源估算结果。该 ...