Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) led by central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is characterized by large scale and rapid execution, with a total of 16 significant M&A cases disclosed as of June 23, 2025 [2][3] Group 1: M&A Activity - Electric Power Investment Energy plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhua Coal Power, while Xiamen Port intends to acquire 70% equity of Container Terminal Group [2] - The integration of resources by leading central SOEs is expected to enhance their valuation and market expectations for quality asset re-evaluation [2][3] - The acceleration of industrial consolidation is evident, with major SOEs like State Power Investment Group and China Huadian Group actively disclosing significant asset restructuring plans [4] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The focus of M&A activities is shifting towards "hard technology," with central SOEs targeting sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, biomedicine, and high-end equipment [5] - Companies like BGI Genomics are pursuing acquisitions to strengthen their position in the electronic design automation (EDA) industry, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing core technology capabilities [5] - Specialized integration efforts are being made by firms like Lanke High-tech to improve their overall solution capabilities in the energy equipment sector, thereby increasing their competitive advantage [5]

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, marking a significant step in the virtual asset regulatory framework [3] - The regulation sets high entry barriers, requiring issuers to meet regulatory standards similar to banks and e-wallets, including asset reserves and anti-money laundering measures [3] - Investors should focus on local licensed virtual asset platforms and fintech companies with strong regulatory compliance experience, such as OSL and HashKey, which may be among the first to receive approval [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes that stablecoin issuers without clear application scenarios will struggle to gain market traction and approval, indicating a shift towards stablecoins as practical financial tools rather than mere investment vehicles [3] - Companies with existing operations in B2B cross-border payments, corporate settlements, and digital trade, like Airwallex and PingPong, are likely to have higher chances of integrating stablecoins into real-world applications [3] Group 2: Coinbase and USDC Market Dynamics - Coinbase's trading commission rate has decreased from 2.5% to 1.4%, primarily due to competition from decentralized exchanges and low-cost channels [2] - Despite short-term volatility recovery, the trading business has lost its "compliance moat" advantage, making future profitability highly dependent on lower fees, higher trading volumes, or innovative products [2] - USDC's market share remains significantly lower than USDT, with approximately 75% market share for USDT, and the compliance benefits of USDC are weakened by partnerships with Tether [4] - USDC is a cash cow but not a growth driver, and Coinbase is not a direct substitute for Circle, indicating that USDC's popularity does not directly translate into Coinbase's valuation logic [4] Group 3: Global Regulatory Trends and Implications for China - Multiple securities firms, including CICC and CITIC, have released reports focusing on the impact of stablecoins on the international monetary system, financial regulation, and cross-border payment ecosystems [5] - Hong Kong is expected to become a testing ground for the RMB stablecoin, with a recommendation to focus on licensed virtual asset platforms and cross-border e-commerce/payment service providers [5] - As regulations become clearer, stablecoins are anticipated to transition from trading tools to mainstream payment methods, facilitating the mapping of Real World Assets (RWA) and B2B settlement scenarios [5] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The Middle East situation has escalated, with increased military tensions between the US and Iran, raising concerns about oil supply risks and providing dual support for oil prices [6] - It is recommended to consider gold investments after adjustments, focusing on leading companies with strong cost control like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, while also looking at upstream oil and gas resources like CNOOC [6] - The rare earth sector is benefiting from stricter export policies and high demand in the new energy industry, suggesting opportunities in companies with resource control like Northern Rare Earth [6] - The US active drilling rig count has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating a cautious sentiment in the oil market as companies reduce capital expenditures amid price volatility [6] - Despite the overall high US crude oil production, the decline in completion crews suggests a slowdown in short-term new capacity release, which may provide price support [6]

随着以美联储为代表的海外发达经济开启降息周期，流动性充裕将对黄金形成利好;黄金具有抗通胀属 性，美国通胀预期升温背景下，黄金投资价值凸显，叠加关税不确定性仍存，增加黄金避险需求。另 外，全球地缘政治风险上升、大国博弈加剧，主要央行持续增持黄金储备等，都有望推动金价中枢进一 步上移。白银商品和金融属性共振，金银比存修复预期，银价具备更大向上弹性。 稀土供需格局边际改善，出口管制催化战略价值提升 "两新"政策驱动下，新能源汽车、家电等需求量有望增长，进而带来稀土永磁材料需求增加。人形机器 人落地加速，有望打开稀土永磁材料长期成长空间。国内稀土开采总量控制指标增速放缓，缅甸稀土矿 进口情况虽短期有所恢复，但雨季临近等因素导致后续进口情况仍不稳定，稀土供给端或难有增量。稀 土供需格局改善可期，稀土价格回升趋势有望延续。2025年4月，国家对中重稀土实施出口管制，有望 推动海外稀土价格上涨、国内稀土价格跟涨。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，2025年一季度基金对有色金属板块配置比例环比提升1.07个百分 点至4.59%，铜、黄金和铝成为增配重点品种。多重因素催化金价上涨，白银有望迎来补涨;稀土供需格 局边际改 ...

核电站（资料图） 可事实上，中国在全球稀土产业中的地位难以撼动。数据显示，中国控制着全球约70%的稀土矿开采 量，85%的精炼产能，以及超90%的稀土金属合金和磁铁产量 。美国虽拥有一定稀土储量，却在关键的 分离提纯技术上，与中国存在着巨大差距。美国能源部此前资助的15个本土稀土项目，至今无一个实现 商业化量产 。而且，部分美国企业在重建本土稀土产业链时，连关键生产设备都依赖从中国进口 。如 此一来，美企所谓"一年逆袭"，更像是不切实际的口号，要想在稀土领域挑战中国，他们面临着技术、 产能、供应链等多方面短期内难以逾越的障碍。 在美企对中国稀土"宣战"之时，中国在中亚的合作取得了重大进展。6月17日，第二届中国—中亚峰会 在哈萨克斯坦举行 。峰会期间成果丰硕，中国与中亚国家签署了一系列合作文件。比如中工国际与哈 萨克斯坦苏打有限责任公司签署了江布尔州年产50万吨纯碱厂项目二期商务合同，合同金额达3.37亿美 元 。 据报道，近日有美企放话，要在一年后逆袭，打破中国在稀土领域的主导地位。与此同时，在第二届中 国—中亚峰会上，中国与中亚国家合作成果丰硕，拿下关键订单。这两件事看似孤立，实则反映了当下 复杂的国际经 ...

据金融界报道，近期，俄罗斯总统普京表示愿与美国合作开发稀土矿产，包括顿巴斯地区。稀土，这一听起来陌生却在 现代生活中无处不在的资源，被誉为现代工业的"维生素"。在电子、新能源、环境保护、航空航天、国防军工等众多领 域，稀土都扮演着不可或缺的关键角色。比如在每架战机中，都含有约400公斤的稀土元素，其发动机、雷达和导弹等核 心部件都离不开稀土的加持。可以说，没有稀土，现代军事装备和高科技产品的性能将大打折扣。 稀土开采（资料图） 长期以来，中国在全球稀土市场占据着举足轻重的地位。中国不仅拥有丰富的稀土储量，更是在稀土开采、冶炼和加工 技术等方面具备绝对优势。据相关数据，中国的稀土加工能力占全球的80%以上。 随着中美贸易摩擦加剧，美国不断对中国高科技产业进行制裁，中国也采取了相应的反制措施。去年12月，中国商务部 等四部门联合发布《两用物项出口管制清单》，将稀土资源列入出口管制范围。同时，中国还叫停了若干稀土加工技术 出口。这一系列举措让美国市场上中国稀土的身影愈发难觅，美国企业面临着稀土供应短缺的困境。 就在美国为稀土供应发愁之际，俄罗斯抛出了橄榄枝。据俄罗斯总统普京特别代表称，俄罗斯境内拥有稀有金属总储量 ...

俄克拉荷马州已经成了"全村的希望"，美企信誓旦旦对中国下战书，要争夺稀土主导权，不曾想咱们的阳谋如此 有效，竟然一招制敌。 中国在关键矿产领域的主导地位十分牢固，但总有一些国家和企业不死心，想要使绊子。 比如美国就一直在想办法取代中国，现在已经将希望寄托在俄克拉荷马州。 在俄克拉荷马州，美国唯一的镍精炼厂、最大的锂精炼厂、两家锂离子电池回收厂、稀土磁铁设施和多个电子 垃圾收集设施，要么已经投入运营，要么正在建设当中，总之看起来欣欣向荣，很有奔头。 今年早些时候，已经有一家澳大利亚企业押注俄克拉荷马州，加大投资拓展业务。 另一家美国企业也在俄克拉荷马州首府以南，大约137公里的地方建立了一个生产设施。 按照这家公司创始人的说法，他们每年可以精炼200公吨的镍，并且计划到2030年扩大至每年3.4万公吨，目的是 让美国"摆脱对中国矿产的依赖"。 显然，这是在对中国"下战书"了，想挑战中国在稀土行业的主导权。 该州州长凯文·斯蒂特也对此极为满意，认为可以凭此成为美国在该行业的新制造中心，但这真的能实现吗？ 路透社表示，即便这家美企计划成功实现，也只能满足美国每年镍需求的10%。 这番话的意思，相信那些排队等待中国稀 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].

Group 1: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth market, accounting for approximately 70% of mining, 85% of refining capacity, and 90% of production of rare earth metal alloys and magnets [1][3] - Despite the U.S. having significant rare earth reserves, its industry has lagged due to minimal investment over the past decades, leading to heavy reliance on imports from China [1][3] - U.S. companies have announced ambitious plans to break China's monopoly within a year, but experts suggest that restructuring the entire supply chain could take at least a decade [3] Group 2: U.S. Pharmaceutical Dependency - Over 60% of everyday medications and raw materials in the U.S. depend on Chinese supplies, with 80% of the raw materials for basic drugs like amoxicillin sourced from China [3] - The push for manufacturing to return to the U.S. may lead pharmaceutical companies to abandon the domestic market due to cost pressures, potentially resulting in a severe shortage of medications [3] Group 3: China-Kazakhstan Cooperation - China has made significant strides in international cooperation, exemplified by signing over 10 bilateral agreements with Kazakhstan, including a notable nuclear power project valued at over $10 billion [4][5] - The partnership with Kazakhstan allows China to secure stable uranium supplies and enhances its influence in the global nuclear energy sector [7][9] - The cooperation model between China and Kazakhstan is seen as a win-win, providing advanced technology and financial support to Kazakhstan while expanding China's global manufacturing footprint [9] Group 4: U.S.-China Geopolitical Competition - The competition between the U.S. and China in critical sectors has evolved beyond trade, representing a clash of development models [9] - U.S. attempts to reshape supply chains through political means have not addressed fundamental issues and may lead to deeper challenges in various sectors [9] - China's approach of promoting international cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative is positioning it as a leader in global development trends [9]

Core Viewpoint - The global rare earth market is facing significant challenges due to supply shortages, primarily driven by China's export controls, which have led to soaring prices and potential stagnation in the automotive industry in Europe, the US, and India [1][3]. Supply Chain Challenges - China produces nearly 70% of the world's rare earth elements, which are critical for various technologies, from advanced military applications to everyday electronics [3]. - The US has been attempting to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths by developing its supply chain, but faces significant obstacles, including a lack of commercially viable natural reserves and a shortage of skilled engineers [3]. - The US is approximately 20 years behind China in rare earth separation and purification technology, making it difficult to establish a stable supply chain in the short term [3]. Regulatory Environment - China's export control policy on rare earths has tightened approval processes rather than imposing a complete ban, affecting the participation of non-state entities in the sector [4]. - The 2024 quota for rare earth mining has significantly slowed to a growth rate of 5.88%, down from over 20% in previous years, indicating a continued tightening of supply [4]. Demand Dynamics - There is an explosive growth in demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials, particularly from humanoid robots and the new energy sector [6]. - High demand projections include 3115 tons of rare earth materials needed for humanoid robots by 2030, with a potential market of 20-40 million tons if 100 million units are sold [6]. - The demand for rare earth materials in electric vehicles is expected to reach 58,000 tons by 2025, with China accounting for 34,000 tons [6]. Price Trends - Overseas rare earth prices have begun to rise, with significant increases reported for dysprosium and terbium oxides in Europe [6]. - The ongoing impact of China's export controls is expected to sustain the upward trend in rare earth prices [6]. Opportunities for Domestic Companies - Domestic rare earth companies are positioned to benefit from the combination of supply constraints and strong demand, leading to a clear upward trend in prices [8]. - Industry leaders like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth Group are expected to gain market share and profit margins due to their resource advantages and favorable policies [8]. - Increased funding for research and development will drive innovation in rare earth applications, further solidifying China's dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain [9].

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-23 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4846.95 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5047.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《固态电池对上游金属需求梳理》 - 2025.06.20 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.16-2025.06. ...