Group 1: Market Overview - The global demand for potassium fertilizer is steadily increasing, supported by supply reductions from major suppliers and geopolitical trade disruptions, which create a tight supply-demand balance for potassium prices [2] - In the first half of 2025, domestic potassium chloride production was approximately 2.5547 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, indicating a tightening supply trend [2] Group 2: Strategic Planning - The company's strategic goal is to reach a global mining group level by 2027, leveraging its strengths in potassium and lithium resource development [3] - The company aims to enhance its resource reserves, production capacity, and development technology to become one of the world's most important suppliers of potassium and lithium [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the average sales cost of potassium chloride was 996 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36% [7] - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 48.52 million RMB from lithium operations, which represents a low proportion of the overall net profit [7] Group 4: Project Updates - The company is actively pursuing the renewal of mining permits for the Chaka Salt Lake, with approvals progressing through various levels of government [5][6] - The Laos potassium project has secured a resource reserve certificate for a total of 984 million tons of potassium chloride and 16 million tons of associated bromine resources [9] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - In the first half of 2025, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.569 billion RMB, with cumulative dividends from 2022 to 2024 amounting to 7.4 billion RMB [12] - The company plans to maintain a reasonable dividend policy while ensuring funding for key projects, allowing investors to share in the company's growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The "Zijin System" is expected to expand with the potential addition of Zijin Gold International and Cangge Mining, both of which could reach a market capitalization of 100 billion yuan in the coming years, alongside Zijin Mining's current market cap of 500 billion yuan [2][12]. Company Performance - Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 1.68 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.55% [2]. - The primary source of profit for Cangge Mining was the investment income from Jilong Copper, contributing 1.264 billion yuan to the company's earnings [5][6]. Future Projects and Growth Potential - Cangge Mining has several projects in the pipeline, including the second phase of Jilong Copper, which is expected to double its annual production capacity to 300,000-350,000 tons by the end of 2025 [3][10]. - The company has also received mining permits for the Mali Cuo project and is in the "exploration to production" phase for the Laos potassium salt project, indicating significant future growth potential [3][8]. Market Performance - Despite a general decline in lithium stocks since 2022, Cangge Mining's stock has increased by approximately 72% year-to-date, with a recent peak price of 48.65 yuan, surpassing previous cycle highs [5][6]. - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for Cangge Mining, with expected profits for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 3.56 billion yuan and 6.08 billion yuan, respectively [11]. Strategic Integration - Following the change of control to Zijin Mining, Cangge Mining is undergoing governance reforms to enhance management efficiency and integrate into the Zijin system [7][8]. - The integration is expected to improve Cangge Mining's asset scale, resource reserves, and management effectiveness, leveraging Zijin Mining's experience [7][9]. Market Outlook - The combined market capitalization of the "Zijin System," including Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, and Cangge Mining, is becoming clearer, with the potential for significant valuation increases as projects come online and profits grow [12].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a low open and high close, indicating a potential sideways movement in the market [1] - The banking sector has shown signs of recovery after a period of decline, aligning with previous predictions [2] - The CRO sector has demonstrated a "three consecutive highs" pattern, suggesting a possible peak has been reached [2] Group 2 - The recent volatility in silicon materials and lithium ore futures is expected, with a likelihood of a downturn following a period of stagnation [3] - Emphasizing the importance of patience in stock trading, as impulsive actions can lead to losses [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has declined, and weekly lithium salt prices have followed suit and dropped rapidly. In August, the supply - demand balance may further narrow. Weekly production continues to slow down, but with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons, while the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE. Social inventory has seen its first destocking since the end of May, but there is still about 142,000 tons. After the market sentiment fades, the market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiakouwo will shut down. At the same time, there is a certain back - flow after the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipt inventory, but the total volume remains low. In the long - term, it should be noted that recently, Australian lithium mining companies have successively disclosed their financial reports, with many companies showing a month - on - month increase in production and sales, and overseas lithium ore supply remains stable and abundant [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Price - During the week, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by 14.4%, and prices in all links of the industrial chain have corrected. For example, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25th to 68,920 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 3,073 tons to 45,888 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,090 tons to 43,880 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,427 tons [16]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - There are data on the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the import profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, etc., but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [24]. 3.4 Production of Lithium - Related Products 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - There are charts showing the import volume of lithium concentrates from different countries (such as Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc.), the import volume of lithium chloride, and the production of sample lithium mica mines and lithium pyroxene mines [27][29]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. In August, it is expected to increase by 3.3% to 84,200 tons. The production from lithium pyroxene is expected to increase by 6,970 tons to 51,780 tons, while the production from lithium mica is expected to decrease by 3,100 tons to 14,900 tons, the production from salt lakes is expected to decrease by 2,320 tons to 10,020 tons, and the production from recycling is expected to increase by 1,120 tons to 7,500 tons [5][31][38]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the production is expected to decrease by 5% to 23,820 tons [46]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - In August, the production is expected to increase by 6% to 20,220 tons [49]. 3.4.5 Ternary Precursor - In August, the production is expected to increase by 5% to 76,160 tons [58]. 3.4.6 Ternary Material - In August, the production is expected to increase by 3% to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 53 tons to 16,499 tons [61]. 3.4.7 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In August, the production is expected to increase by 7% to 311,400 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 1,206 tons to 93,672 tons [62]. 3.5 Power Cell - Weekly cell production decreased by 0.5% to 22.57 GWh. Among them, lithium - iron cell production increased by 0.5% to 15.66 GWh, and ternary cell production decreased by 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [66]. 3.6 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From July 1st to 20th, the new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 514,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail volume was 537,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate of the national new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [6][77]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - There are charts showing the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [81]. 3.8 Options - There are charts showing historical volatility, historical volatility cones, put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate [82][85].

行 有色金属 2025 年 08 月 04 日 业 研 究 行 业 动 态 跟 有色金属 2025Q2 海外锂矿项目跟踪——MRL：Marion 产 量环比-11%，Wodgina 成本环比-17% 投资要点： 澳洲 Mt Marion 锂辉石矿（MRL 50%/赣锋 50%） 券 点评：Wodgina 收率提升、产量增加、成本下降 踪 1）产销：25Q2 生产精矿 12.4 万吨，同环比-30%/-11%，平均品 位提升至 4.6%，同环比+0.4/+0.2pct，平均出货品位提升，主因原料质 量提高、现有磨矿回转窑系统进一步优化，以及改造后的湿式高强度 磁选机成功试运行并逐步投产；销售 SC4.6 精矿 13.4 万吨（折合 SC6 约 10.4 万吨），同环比-30%/-2.9%。 2） 售价：实现销售价格 480 美元/吨（SC4.6），同比-40%，环比 -24%。折合 SC6 为 607 美元/吨。25 财年实现销售价格 562 美元/吨 （SC4.4），折合 SC6 为 771 美元/吨。 3）成本：2025Q2 Mt Marion 生产成本为（FOB）717 澳元/吨（SC6）。 2025 财 ...

Group 1 - Cangge Mining reported a gross profit margin of 30.53% for its lithium carbonate business in the first half of 2025, indicating strong product competitiveness [1] - The company received a mining license from the Tibet Autonomous Region's Natural Resources Department, allowing it to legally exploit salt lake resources [1] - The production cost of lithium carbonate for the first phase of the Mami Cuo project is approximately 31,000 yuan per ton, suggesting potential for cost control and competitive advantage in the industry [1] Group 2 - Bangjie Co. announced that major shareholders Shanghai Fangyuan and Zhejiang Dianchuang plan to reduce their holdings, with Shanghai Fangyuan intending to sell up to 6.7462 million shares (1.47% of total shares) and Zhejiang Dianchuang planning to sell up to 4.4974 million shares (0.98% of total shares) through various trading methods [2] - The reduction in shareholding is attributed to the shareholders' personal financial planning, and it is not expected to significantly impact the company's control or governance structure [2] - The market may reassess Bangjie Co.'s industry position due to performance pressures following its diversification into the photovoltaic sector [2] Group 3 - China Shenhua has announced plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire assets from the State Energy Group, including coal, coal power, and related assets, while also raising supporting funds [3] - The transaction aims to enhance the company's control over its "coal-electricity-transport-chemistry" industrial chain, improving its risk resilience [3] - This move is part of a broader trend of central enterprise coal asset integration, which is expected to increase industry concentration and promote efficient and green development [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit margin for the potassium chloride business was 61.84%, while the lithium carbonate business had a gross profit margin of 30.53% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 834 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 137.19% [2] Group 2: Potassium Chloride Business - The average selling price of potassium chloride (including tax) was 2,845 yuan per ton, an increase of 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost was 996 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year [1] - The rise in potassium fertilizer prices is attributed to global supply-demand mismatches, including U.S. tariffs on Canadian potassium fertilizer and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The company expects the tight supply-demand situation to support high prices as autumn fertilizer demand increases [1] Group 3: Lithium and Copper Projects - The company is actively pursuing the extension of its mining license for the Chaqi Mining Area, with approvals from various levels of government already received [2] - The first phase of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project is expected to have a lithium production cost of approximately 31,000 yuan per ton, benefiting from efficient production processes and controlled investment scales [2] - The company anticipates significant contributions to its performance from the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production of approximately 300,000 to 350,000 tons [3][4] Group 4: Synergies with Zijin Mining - The collaboration with Zijin Mining is expected to leverage world-class lithium resource reserves and the company's technical advantages in lithium extraction [3] - The synergy will manifest in low-cost lithium extraction processes, regional collaboration in Tibet, and enhanced resource management systems [3] - The company believes that Zijin Mining's control over Jilong Copper will improve operational efficiency and accelerate project development [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Volatile" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term speculative sentiment has cooled down, causing the market to decline significantly. Future price trends may gradually return to fundamental logic. The demand side shows positive growth in production schedules in August, and the supply side still has uncertainties due to the unresolved Jiangxi mining license issue. The market has support from both fundamentals and downstream buying. It is not recommended to enter short positions too early. Instead, it is advisable to try long positions at low prices with a light position and use spot market transactions to determine the entry timing. Also, it is suggested to take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面高位回落，下游买盘涌出 - Last week (07/28 - 08/01), lithium salt prices dropped from high levels. LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices decreased by 13.7% and 14.4% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices fell by 2.1%. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise, with the average prices of coarse - grained and micronized types increasing by 4.0% and 3.7% respectively. The price difference between electric and industrial lithium carbonate narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate also narrowed. Due to the previous influx of long - position funds and slow warehouse receipt generation, the delivery risk of LC2509 increased. After the Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued two position - limit announcements, LC2509 significantly reduced its positions by 270,000 lots to 210,000 lots, and the delivery risk is expected to decline [1][10][11] 3.2.周内行业要闻回顾 - Jiangte Motor's actual controller changed to Wang Xin and Zhu Jun after a series of equity transfers and agreements, and the company's stock resumed trading on July 29, 2025 [14] - Liontown's Kathleen Valley lithium project had strong second - quarter operating results, with a net operating cash flow of 23 million Australian dollars, revenue of 96 million Australian dollars, and sales of 97,330 metric tons of concentrate at an average grade of 5.2%. The underground production is increasing as planned [14] - De'a Lithium Industry's 30,000 - ton lithium salt project was successfully put into production on July 31, laying a foundation for full - scale production [15] - IGO's Greenbushes project has a 2026 guidance target of 1.5 - 1.65 million tons of spodumene with a cash cost of 310 - 360 US dollars per ton. The Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery's annual output did not meet the target, and it is expected to be further impaired by 70 - 90 million Australian dollars [15] - PLS's 2025 fiscal - year lithium spodumene concentrate production reached 754,600 tons, a 4% year - on - year increase, exceeding the guidance target. However, due to falling lithium prices, the annual revenue decreased by 39% to 769 million Australian dollars. The company plans to increase production to 820,000 - 870,000 tons in 2026 [15][16] 3.3.产业链重点高频数据监测 3.3.1.资源端：锂精矿现货报价回落 - Lithium concentrate spot quotes declined, with the lithium spodumene concentrate spot average price (6%, CIF China) dropping from 810 US dollars per ton to 755 US dollars per ton, a 6.8% decrease [11] 3.3.2.锂盐：盘面高位回落 - Lithium salt prices dropped from high levels. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 2.1%, and LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices decreased by 13.7% and 14.4% respectively. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise [1][10][11] 3.3.3.下游中间品：报价略回升 - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as some lithium - related materials showed a slight increase. For example, the prices of some ternary materials increased slightly, with the 523, 622, and 811 types rising by 0.6%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [11] 3.3.4.终端：6月中国新能源车延续去库 - In June, China's new - energy vehicle market continued the inventory reduction trend, with relevant data on production, sales, and penetration rate showing certain trends [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The risk level of the previous continuous rally in the commodity market has increased, and fear of high prices has spread. This week, varieties such as coking coal, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, glass, and soda ash have all significantly corrected. The improvement of the lithium carbonate fundamentals depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Australian mines have successively announced quarterly reports, and Greenbush and Pilbara will increase production in the new fiscal year. The subsequent market attention will still focus on the reduction and suspension of production of domestic resources in Jiangxi and Qinghai. This week, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly. There is an expectation of repair in the supply - demand relationship before the peak season, which is expected to support the bottom of lithium prices, but the sustainability of supply reduction remains to be observed. Recently, the uncertainty brought by capital games is high, and there is a certain linkage effect among active varieties. Pay attention to the overall atmosphere change in the commodity market in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [12] - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [12] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [12] - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [12] - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [20] - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract positions has declined [23] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,680 yuan [26] 3. Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. Some manufacturers have carried out maintenance or production cuts, and the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly, resulting in a decline in domestic lithium carbonate output. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 73.8% year - on - year. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous month, and the cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 21.0% year - on - year [34] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 15.6% year - on - year. Some salt lakes have reduced or suspended production, and the output of salt lake lithium carbonate has declined during the peak season. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% month - on - month to 6,380 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 17.4% year - on - year [37] - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40] 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. Future growth in lithium salt consumption will rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited growth [44] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47] - From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to last year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to last year [50] - In June, the combined output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a cumulative 60.4% increase year - on - year. In June, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase compared to the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a cumulative 47.3% increase year - on - year [53] - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, and the output in the first half of the year increased by 47.8% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [56] 5. Inventory - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [63] - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to the rush for exports [66] 6. Cost Side - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week [74] - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.