消费供需四象限策略剖析 20251215 未来一年，国内消费板块的投资机会主要基于国内消费逐渐复苏的大背景。然 而，在完全走出通缩之前，市场仍将面临内卷的环境。以 2021 年的医美板块 为例，当时由于供不应求，吸引了大量企业进入，导致短期内供过于求。因此， 我们需要在策略中避开可能出现业绩和估值双杀的板块，同时布局有潜力转好 的低位板块。 当前国内消费市场面临哪些挑战？ 当前国内消费市场面临几个主要挑战。首先是薪酬结构问题。在 CPI 通缩环境 下，企业普遍通过降本增效和裁员来改善利润空间，中产阶级的薪酬难以得到 提升。其次是杠杆能力问题，有钱人财富集中度提高，而中产阶级因房贷压力 大、收入增长缓慢，难以借贷消费。此外，尽管政府可能推出新房贴息政策， 全球贸易形势不确定性增加，内需的重要性凸显，以应对外贸风险，尤 其是在出口数据不佳和海外 PMI 走弱的情况下，加强内需成为确保 GDP 稳定增长的重要策略。 高端消费市场正在逐步恢复，高端酒店、奢侈游轮及博彩行业在今年三 季度均表现出色，高端商场品牌入驻数量显著增加，验证了高端消费的 恢复趋势。 但对已购房者支持力度有限。 如何理解"2035 年收入倍增计划 ...

智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12月16日，Robinhood (HOOD.US) 正式举办名为"YES/NO"的主题活动。 此次活动不仅是其预测市场业务的深度升级，更被市场视为对传统博彩巨头(如DraftKings和FanDuel)以 及现有预测平台Kalshi的"公开宣战"。美银等机构警告称，这场"技术派"科技巨头对"传统派"博彩公司 的降维打击，可能迫使整个行业的获客成本与费率标准发生根本性逆转。 "据我们交流，在线体育博彩投资者似乎把Kalshi的任何负面都视为在线体育博彩运营商的利好，但我 们认为像Robinhood这样的大型科技公司加码投资，对DraftKings(DKNG.US)和FanDuel而言是竞争威 胁。"该行分析师Julie Hoover警告称。 美国银行认为，由于Robinhood近日宣布与Susquehanna Investment Group成立垂直整合的预测市场合资 企业，该公司可能会借机凸显对Kalshi依赖度的下降。 另一大关注点是，Robinhood、Kalshi与Polymarket在事件合约手续费上的竞争力度——它们要与 FanDuel、DraftKings和BetMG ...

消息面上，金界控股公布，有关于柬埔寨金边开发及兴建多功能娱乐且全面的综合度假村设施(Naga 3) 项目，与认购方签订相互终止契约，认购方作为认购付款一部分所支付总额3.16亿美元的现金垫款已被 该集团没收，并计入储备金，且并无就现金垫款发行结算股份。因此，终止认购协议不会对集团现有业 务或财务状况产生任何重大不利影响。该集团指，尽管已签订相互终止契约，仍计划继续开展Naga3项 目，将评估Naga3的余下发展计划，如有需要，探索其他资金渠道。 智通财经APP获悉，金界控股(03918)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.2%，报5.21港元，成交额951.66万港元。 ...

美高梅中国(02282)发布公告，该公司于2025年12月15日注销87.94万股已回购股份。 ...

消息面上，澳门特区政府此前公布，预期2026年度在各项利好因素下，澳门旅游业可望延续发展。因应 须考虑外部环境及经济形势的不确定性，并综合考量各项因素，以及建基于审慎理财的原则，估算明年 全年博彩毛收入为2,360亿澳门元。 智通财经APP获悉，博彩股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，美高梅中国(02282)跌3.55%，报15.74港元；金沙中国 (01928)跌3.67%，报19.96港元；永利澳门(01128)跌1.6%，报6.15港元；新濠国际发展(00200)跌1.52%， 报4.55港元。 花旗发表研究报告指，凭借丰富的演唱会活动、奢华的新酒店供应及新的百家乐边注玩法，相信澳门将 继续成为内地富裕旅客追求的首选旅游目的地，目前预测明年澳门博彩收入将同比增长6%，行业 EBITDA料按年增长10%，EBITDA利润率维持在约29%，按年大致持平。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the consumer services industry, highlighting optimism about service consumption potential [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and plans to implement measures to boost consumption, including a focus on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [4]. - The report suggests that service consumption is expected to be a key driver for domestic demand in 2026, with potential growth in holiday policy optimization and consumption voucher issuance [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels, human resources services, duty-free sectors, gaming companies, internet platforms, integrated tea dining, innovative tourism sites, and the sports sector [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.76% this week, while the overall A-share market rose by 0.27% and the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08% [7]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows a relative underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [2][7]. Weekly Industry Insights - The report notes that the social services sector's stock performance was mixed, with notable gains in companies like China High-Tech and China Oriental Education, while others like Haidilao and Wanda Hotel Development faced declines [4][19]. - The report also highlights significant announcements from various companies, including share buybacks and management changes [34]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Long White Mountain and Chongqing Department Store [35].

跌幅居前的是云顶新加坡和DFI零售集团，分别下跌0.69％和0.25％。 新华财经新加坡12月12日电 新加坡海峡时报指数12日涨1.45%，收于4586.45点。 股市成交量达12.5亿股，总交易额达16.9亿新元。其中，301只股票上涨，236只股票下跌。 成份股方面，怡和控股（Jardine Matheson）和香港置地（Hongkong Land）涨幅居前，分别上涨3.60％ 和3.03％。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

OKURA HOLDINGS(01655)发布公告，配售协议所载的所有先决条件已获达成，而配售事项完成已于 2025年12月12日发生。合共3501.96万股配售股份(相当于经配发及发行配售股份扩大的公司已发行股本 总数约5.51%)已获按经调整配售价每股配售股份0.196港元成功配售予不少于六名承配人。 经扣除应付予配售代理的配售佣金及配售事项产生的其他成本及开支后，配售事项所得款项净额合共约 为610万港元。公司拟将配售事项所得款项净额约305万港元(或50%)及183万港元(或30%)分别用作(a)购 买日式弹珠机及日式角子机;及(b)翻新或提升集团现有日式弹珠机游戏馆以及市场推广开支，而余下约 122万港元(或20%)则用作集团其他一般营运资金。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Macau is expected to remain a preferred travel destination for affluent mainland tourists, driven by a rich lineup of concert events, luxurious new hotel offerings, and new baccarat side bets [1] - The forecast for Macau's gaming revenue in the coming year is a year-on-year growth of 6%, with industry EBITDA projected to grow by 10% annually, maintaining an EBITDA margin of approximately 29% [1] Group 2 - Sands China is identified as the top pick in the industry, with expectations that it will become the largest market share winner by 2026, increasing its share by 1.6 percentage points to 25.1%. The target price has been raised from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 [1] - Wynn Macau is also highlighted, with the expansion of the Chairman's Club in the VIP gaming area expected to open in the first quarter of next year, leading to a recovery in market share. Its target price has been increased from HKD 7.2 to HKD 8.05 [1] - Other preferred gaming stocks include Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, Melco Resorts, and SJM Holdings, with target prices set at HKD 54, HKD 20, USD 13, and HKD 2.3 respectively [1] - Las Vegas Sands is maintained as the global gaming stock of choice, with its target price raised from USD 75.5 to USD 76.75 [1]

Group 1 - Xuan Bamboo Bio-B (02575) surged over 22.09% after announcing that its innovative drug Xuan Yue Ning was included in the national basic medical insurance drug list [1] - Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) rose over 13.4% as the price of crab-eating macaques exceeded 100,000 yuan, with reports indicating a supply shortage and prices reaching 120,000 to 130,000 yuan [1] - Domestic property stocks saw a broad increase, with Rongxin China (03301) up 5.26%, Shimao Group (00813) up 1.45%, and others, following the Central Economic Work Conference that outlined key tasks for the economy next year [1] Group 2 - Haidilao (06862) increased over 2.5% as it announced the internal testing phase for its first large-scale hot pot restaurant in Guangzhou [1] - Sutech Juchuang (02498) rose over 6.26% ahead of the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) scheduled for January 6-9, 2026, in Las Vegas [1] - Consumer concept stocks mostly advanced, with notable increases in Jiumaojiu (09922) by 3.61% and others, following the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing domestic demand [2] Group 3 - Yituo Co., Ltd. (00038) surged over 8%, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in three trading days, as Goldman Sachs highlighted its favorable position in China's agricultural modernization [2] - Jin Jie Holdings (03918) fell nearly 2% amid ongoing border conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand, prompting safety advisories for Chinese citizens [2] - Smoore International (06969) dropped nearly 3% after British American Tobacco (BTI.US) provided a weak earnings outlook due to regulatory pressures in the U.S. e-cigarette market [2] Group 4 - Zijin Mining (02899) rose over 3% following remarks at the 2025 China International Gold Market Annual Conference about new opportunities for the gold industry in the Hainan Free Trade Port [3][4] - Lumexa Imaging (LMRI.US) debuted on the U.S. stock market with an opening increase of over 1.6%, providing outpatient imaging services across 13 states [5] - Rare earth stocks strengthened, with Perpetua Resources (PPTA.US) up 13.42% after announcing a partnership to enhance domestic mineral processing capabilities [5] Group 5 - Bitcoin-related stocks showed mixed results as Bitcoin fell below 90,000 yuan, with Coinbase (COIN.US) down 2.21% and others experiencing slight changes [6] - Space-related stocks surged, with Planet Labs PBC (PL.US) up 35.01% after reporting a 33% year-over-year revenue increase [7] - Disney (DIS.US) saw a 2.42% increase after announcing a $1 billion investment in OpenAI, allowing the use of its IP for AI-generated video content [7]