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晨星: 领展房产基金中港零售租合表现弱 合理估值每单位45港元 全年股息率料6.6%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 06:17
Core Viewpoint - Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate of HKD 45 per unit for Link REIT (00823), indicating that the current unit value is undervalued, with a projected distribution per unit of HKD 2.57 for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting an attractive yield of 6.6% [1] Financial Performance - For the half-year period ending September, Link REIT's net property income decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to negative rental growth in its retail property portfolio in Hong Kong and mainland China [1] - The interim distribution per unit fell by 5.9% to HKD 1.27, which aligns with expectations [1] Market Outlook - Morningstar anticipates that the headwinds in the retail sector will continue to compress rental income through negative rental renewals, predicting that rental income from Hong Kong's retail property portfolio will stabilize starting in the fiscal year 2027 [1] - The rental performance of the mainland China retail property portfolio recorded a negative 16.4%, as Link REIT prioritized maintaining occupancy rates by reducing rents [1] Strategic Initiatives - Link REIT is restructuring its assets in Beijing, while retail sales in Shanghai have shown signs of stabilization [1] - The diversification strategy has proven effective, with strong performance in retail assets in Australia and Singapore, both showing double-digit positive rental returns, which effectively offsets the weak performance in Greater China [1]
晨星: 领展房产基金(00823)中港零售租合表现弱 合理估值每单位45港元 全年股息率料6.6%
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 06:15
智通财经APP获悉,晨星发布研报称,经调整假设后,现维持对领展房产基金(00823)每单位45港元公允 价值合值。单位现值被低估,预测2026财年每单位分派额为2.57港元,反映相等于6.6%的吸引收益率。 截至今年9月底止半年度,领展净物业收入同比跌3.4%,主因香港及中国内地零售物业组合持续面临租 金负增长。中期每单位分派跌5.9%至1.27港元。该行认为,上述弱势表现符合预期。晨星预估零售业逆 风将持续透过负面租金续租压缩2026财年度租金收入,预期香港零售物业组合租金收入将于2027财年开 始趋稳。 另外,中国内地零售物业组合租金续绩为负16.4%,因领展透过调降租金优先确保出租率。领展正重整 北京资产,上海零售销售已趋稳定。领展多元化策略成效显著,其澳洲及新加坡零售资产表现强劲(均 呈现双位数正租金回归),有效抵销大中华区的疲弱表现。 ...
大行评级丨美银:下调领展目标价至43港元 重申“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 05:24
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Link REIT's mid-term performance for the fiscal year ending September 2026 is below expectations, leading to a downward revision of the Distribution Per Unit (DPU) forecast by 2% to 3% for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, with the target price reduced from HKD 45 to HKD 43 [1] Group 1 - The main negative factor for Link REIT is the sharp decline in retail rental income from mainland China [1] - The 6% decrease in renewal rental rates in Hong Kong was anticipated, but the year-on-year decline in tenant sales for the second fiscal quarter was disappointing for the market [1] - The company is expected to stabilize its DPU through workforce cost reductions [1] Group 2 - By the mid-fiscal year 2027, Link REIT should be able to adjust its business portfolio to better cope with e-commerce competition [1] - The current valuation of the company is still considered attractive, and the "Buy" rating is reiterated [1]
美银证券:降领展房产基金(00823)目标价至43港元 续予“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 03:35
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Link REIT's (00823) mid-term performance for the fiscal year ending September 2026 is below expectations, leading to a downward revision of the Distribution Per Unit (DPU) forecast by 2% to 3% for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, with the target price reduced from HKD 45 to HKD 43. However, the current valuation remains attractive, and a "Buy" rating is reiterated [1]. Group 1 - The main negative factor for Link REIT is the sharp decline in retail rental income from mainland China [1]. - The 6% decrease in renewal rents in Hong Kong was anticipated, but the widening year-on-year decline in tenant sales for the second fiscal quarter disappointed the market [1]. - It is expected that cost-cutting measures in human resources will help stabilize the DPU until the mid-point of the fiscal year 2027 [1]. Group 2 - The company is expected to adjust its business portfolio to better cope with competition from e-commerce [1].
里昂:升领展房产基金目标价至51港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 02:58
里昂发布研报称,领展房产基金(00823)2026财年上半年业绩逊预期。公司已采取应对措施,该行相信 增量负面影响将从2027财年起逐步消退。该行因香港及内地商场表现差于预期,下调领展2026财年、 2027财年及2028财年盈利预测分别4.5%、1.6%及0.3%。因美国国债收益率下降,将目标价由50.5港元上 调至51港元,维持跑赢大市评级。 里昂指,由于领展在其覆盖的香港地产股中拥有最高收益率,认为负面因素已基本反映在股价中,目前 已具备吸引力的组合,包括具备防御性的高收益率,以及潜在纳入互联互通。 ...
里昂:升领展房产基金(00823)目标价至51港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 02:56
智通财经APP获悉,里昂发布研报称,领展房产基金(00823)2026财年上半年业绩逊预期。公司已采取应 对措施,该行相信增量负面影响将从2027财年起逐步消退。该行因香港及内地商场表现差于预期,下调 领展2026财年、2027财年及2028财年盈利预测分别4.5%、1.6%及0.3%。因美国国债收益率下降,将目 标价由50.5港元上调至51港元,维持跑赢大市评级。 里昂指,由于领展在其覆盖的香港地产股中拥有最高收益率,认为负面因素已基本反映在股价中,目前 已具备吸引力的组合,包括具备防御性的高收益率,以及潜在纳入互联互通。 ...
大行评级丨花旗:维持领展“买入”评级 预期2027至28财年业绩将有所改善
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 02:45
花旗发表研究报告,预计领展房产基金下半财年每基金单位分派按年跌9%,而香港零售业务续租租金 料再跌7至8%(上半年负6.4%),以反映零售业衰退的滞后效应、遣散费支出及商场维修成本等因素。 该行预期,领展的业绩在2027至28财年将有所改善,因为零售销售动力将会复苏,加上租户重组及空间 生产力提升,且利息成本下降,并预计员工及行政成本可为公司节省逾2亿元。该行维持领展"买入"评 级,目标价为45港元。 ...
大行评级丨里昂:微升领展目标价至51港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 02:45
因香港及内地商场表现差于预期,该行下调领展2026财年、2027财年及2028财年盈利预测分别4.5%、 1.6%及0.3%,将其目标价由50.5港元上调至51港元,维持"跑赢大市"评级。 里昂发表报告指,领展房产基金2026财年上半年业绩逊预期,公司已采取应对措施,该行相信增量负面 影响将从2027财年起逐步消退。里昂指,由于领展在其覆盖的香港地产股中拥有最高收益率,认为负面 因素已基本反映在股价中,目前已具备吸引力的组合,包括具备防御性的高收益率,以及潜在纳入互联 互通。 ...
小摩:降领展房产基金(00823)评级至“中性” 目标价下调至38港元
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 02:36
智通财经APP获悉,摩根大通发布研报称,对领展房产基金(00823)评级由"增持"降至"中性",但认为股 价下行空间或受到6.3%的预测2027财年股息率支持。目标价由48港元降至38港元。 领展管理层在9月底止中期业绩发布会上的语调比预期更为审慎,称下半年经营环境将略为恶化后才见 底。虽然该行原本预计全财年续租租金为中单位数百分比负增长,但如今预计2026财年下半年续租租金 跌幅将恶化至高个位数百分比,主要因为领展香港租户销售额在2025年7至9月意外转弱,估计同比跌幅 3%,表现逊于香港必需消费品零售销售同比升3%。 报告指,领展在2026财年上半年每单位分派(DPU)已同比下降6%后,预计2026财年全年DPU将同比下跌 8%,意味2026财年下半年DPU同比跌10%,部分原因来自较高的比较基数。由于续租租金下滑很可能 持续拖累2027财年租金收入,该行亦下调2027财年DPU预测至同比跌3%,部分被员工成本节省所抵 销。 ...
小摩:降领展房产基金评级至“中性” 目标价下调至38港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 02:35
报告指,领展在2026财年上半年每单位分派(DPU)已同比下降6%后,预计2026财年全年DPU将同比下跌 8%,意味2026财年下半年DPU同比跌10%,部分原因来自较高的比较基数。由于续租租金下滑很可能 持续拖累2027财年租金收入,该行亦下调2027财年DPU预测至同比跌3%,部分被员工成本节省所抵 销。 摩根大通发布研报称,对领展房产基金(00823)评级由"增持"降至"中性",但认为股价下行空间或受到 6.3%的预测2027财年股息率支持。目标价由48港元降至38港元。 领展管理层在9月底止中期业绩发布会上的语调比预期更为审慎,称下半年经营环境将略为恶化后才见 底。虽然该行原本预计全财年续租租金为中单位数百分比负增长,但如今预计2026财年下半年续租租金 跌幅将恶化至高个位数百分比,主要因为领展香港租户销售额在2025年7至9月意外转弱,估计同比跌幅 3%,表现逊于香港必需消费品零售销售同比升3%。 ...