矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 风险提示：数据来源Wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个股 仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表 现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提 及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收 益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月7日，矿业ETF（561330）涨超1.8%，资金面看，近20日净流入超3.7亿元，工业金属供需博弈持 续。 国泰海通指出，工业金属领域呈现供需博弈格局。铜价受宏观因素与供给扰动影响或偏强震荡。铝价在 宏观政策提振下创新高， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The short - term increase is too large, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of a pullback [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 132,600 yuan/ton and closed at 137,940 yuan/ton. The closing price increased by 8.99% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,237 lots, and the open interest was 534,999 lots (the previous day's open interest was 515,292 lots). The current basis was - 9,600 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,141 lots, a change of 2,860 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 120,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 - 130,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,680 US dollars/ton, an increase of 113 US dollars/ton [2] Policy Impact - On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document clarifying the subsidy policy for automobile trade - ins in 2026, which significantly improved the expectation of the decline in new - energy vehicle demand in the first quarter. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", which affected small and medium - sized mines in lithium mica production areas such as Yichun, Jiangxi, and strengthened the market's expectation of supply tightening [2] Inventory and Production - The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,667 tons, a decrease of 184 tons; the downstream inventory was 38,998 tons, a decrease of 894 tons; other inventories were 52,940 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow, and the weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [2] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. Options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [3][4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose over 1%, breaking the previous high from November 14, 2025, reaching a ten-year peak [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Multiple sectors showed strong performance, with nearly 3,700 stocks rising across the market [3] - The brain-computer interface concept continued to be strong, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Sanbo Brain Science and Meihao Medical [3] - The financial sector also performed well, with Huayin Securities hitting the daily limit and both Xinhua Insurance and China Pacific Insurance rising over 6% [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [3] - The commercial aerospace concept remained active, with Luxin Investment achieving six limit-ups in eight days [3] Decline in Specific Sectors - The computing hardware concept saw a decline, with Hui Lv Ecology experiencing a significant drop [4] Closing Statistics - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.81%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.04% [5] - Specific index values were: Shanghai Composite Index at 4069.38, Shenzhen Component Index at 3293.18, and ChiNext Index at 13940.24 [6] Market Sentiment - 84.02% of users are bullish on the market [7] - A total of 3,695 stocks rose, while 1,590 stocks declined, with 107 stocks hitting the daily limit [8] Trading Metrics - The trading volume for the day was 1.78 trillion yuan, with a predicted volume of 2.77 trillion yuan for the next trading day, an increase of 226 billion yuan [10] - The limit-up performance rate was 85%, with a high opening rate of 81% and a profit rate of 85% [10]

Group 1 - Hunan Silver shares increased by 5.12%, reaching 8.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.665 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 9.11%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 22.585 billion CNY [1] - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. is located in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, established on November 8, 2004, and listed on January 28, 2014. The company primarily engages in the mining, smelting, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals such as silver, lead, and zinc, forming an integrated production system and full industry chain layout [1] - The main business revenue composition is 99.87% from non-ferrous metals and their products, with other sources contributing 0.13% [1] Group 2 - The top ten circulating shareholders of Hunan Silver include a fund under Yongying Fund, with the Gold Stock ETF (517520) newly entering the top ten shareholders in the third quarter, holding 22.7312 million shares, accounting for 1.04% of circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 8.8652 million CNY [2] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) was established on October 24, 2023, with a latest scale of 11.669 billion CNY. Year-to-date return is 2.7%, ranking 1609 out of 5488 in its category; the one-year return is 91.69%, ranking 125 out of 4193; and since inception, the return is 110.65% [2]

Group 1 - Captone, a Canadian mining company, announced a strike at its Manto Verde copper-gold mine in Chile starting January 2, which is expected to produce only 29,000 to 32,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025 [1] - The global copper market is projected to face a shortfall of over 100,000 tons in 2026, exacerbated by ongoing expectations of U.S. copper tariffs and a persistent premium of COMEX copper over LME copper, currently at $100 per ton [1] - The tight supply in non-U.S. regions is driven by traders moving refined copper to the U.S., contributing to rising copper prices that continue to set historical highs [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - According to Wind data, the mining ETF (561330) is expected to outperform the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Index by over 13% in 2025, with a higher concentration in leading companies and a greater proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths [1]

Group 1 - Venezuela remains a focal point in the news, with oil being a central topic. Despite having the largest global reserves, Venezuela's heavy crude oil exports are limited, suggesting minimal short-term impact on international oil prices. It is anticipated that crude oil futures may see only a brief spike without sustained increases [1] - The recent release of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" aims to enhance the reduction of industrial solid waste at the source and eliminate outdated production capacity. This plan emphasizes the integrated construction of non-ferrous metal mining and processing, which is expected to positively influence the non-ferrous metal market in the medium to long term due to anticipated supply shortages amid strong demand [2] Group 2 - The performance of the A-share market is influenced by external factors, with the recent mixed performance of major US tech stocks having a limited impact on A-share tech stocks. In contrast, the Hong Kong market showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing a significant increase of 4%, marking the largest gain on the first trading day of the year in five years [3] - The rise in Hong Kong tech stocks, particularly driven by chips, is expected to positively affect A-share chip stocks. The performance of leading chip companies on the STAR Market is likely to boost the STAR Index and the Shanghai Composite Index. However, there is caution regarding the potential for a high opening, which could lead to a high open-low close scenario [5]

另一边，固收+基金年内爆款频出，不少投资者陷入纠结。这些热门品类该如何取舍，今天就逐一捋清 楚。 哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析金银大跌背后的真相，还能持有吗？能源金属和固收 +怎么选？ 近期投资市场可谓冰火两重天。锂和电池相关品种逆势走强，以白银为首的贵金属却迎来剧烈波动，短 短一个月内白银先大涨超50%再大幅回调。 金银近期的大跌，让不少持仓投资者慌了神。但梳理市场核心逻辑就能发现，这次下跌更多是短期情绪 宣泄，而非长期趋势逆转。 据证券日报12月7日报道，中国央行已连续13个月增持黄金，11月末黄金储备达7412万盎司，较10月增 加3万盎司。这种持续增持的动作并非个例，全球多个新兴市场国家都在"去美元化"背景下加大黄金配 置。 金银大跌 更直观的是，银行理财市场正在密集布局黄金相关产品。中国理财网数据显示，截至12月30日，名称 含"黄金"的银行理财产品已达52只，仅12月就有7只新品成立，招银理财、光大理财等机构均有布局。 某国有银行客户经理透露，近期咨询黄金理财的客户明显增多，即便经历大跌，仍有不少客户选择逢低 小额加仓。 黄金上涨的核心逻辑并未改变。美国债务规模持续膨胀，美元信用长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Seven companies in the A-share market have collectively announced optimistic performance forecasts for 2025, with expected year-on-year profit growth exceeding 300% for some, indicating strong recovery in specific industries and the ability of companies to navigate through cycles via product upgrades, cost control, and strategic mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance Highlights - Transfar Zhilian is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.5 billion to 7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 256.07% to 361.57%, driven by high-margin product focus and strategic asset optimization [3][4]. - Tianci Materials anticipates a net profit of 11 billion to 16 billion yuan, with a growth of 127.31% to 230.63%, primarily due to the expanding demand for lithium-ion battery materials in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [4][7]. - Guangku Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 152% to 172%, attributed to continuous investment in new product development and successful market expansion [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Drivers - The performance of companies related to the lithium battery supply chain has significantly improved, reflecting a recovery in both downstream demand and upstream material prices [6][7]. - Salt Lake Co. expects a net profit of 8.29 billion to 8.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%, driven by rising market prices for its main product, potassium chloride [7]. - The overall recovery in the lithium battery industry is characterized by strong end-market demand driving growth in midstream battery manufacturing and material production, which in turn supports upstream resource extraction and processing [7]. Group 3: Additional Company Insights - Shougang Co. has achieved growth through a commitment to high-end product transformation and cost reduction, enhancing profitability despite market challenges [5]. - Kidswant has implemented a "three expansion" strategy and accelerated its franchise model, particularly in lower-tier markets, resulting in over 50% growth [5]. - Huazhong Steel is expected to achieve positive net profit growth despite facing a one-time environmental tax payment of over 657 million yuan, showcasing its operational resilience through cost control and ongoing transformation efforts [5].

矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、 稀有金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。 根据wind数据，截止2025年12月31日，矿业ETF（561330）跟踪指数较中证有色指数有超13%的超额幅 度，具备龙头更集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 2025年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅达106.11%，位居有色类ETF第一、全市场ETF第三，"家里 有矿，年内涨超有色"！ 相关机构表示，从有色矿业行业视角来看，供给端的紧约束是行情的底层逻辑。过去十年全球资源 资本开支显著不足，新增矿山开发周期长、品位下滑、审批严格，叠加资源安全监管趋严，使得供给端 弹性明显下降。与此同时，库存长期处于低位，制造业修复、能源转型建设、电网与数据中心投资带来 的阶段性需求反弹，使得低库存环境下的边际需求改善被迅速放大。 每日经济新闻 中信证券认为，展望后市，铜、钴价格受供给紧张提振将"继续上行"，锂价则受益于储能需求超预 期上涨，贵金属价格整体看涨思路并未改变。在流动性宽松、各国加强关键资源获取力度背景下， ...

Group 1 - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. reported a 1% decline in stock price, trading at 6.92 CNY per share, with a total transaction volume of 1.818 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 10.95%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 19.536 billion CNY as of December 31 [1] - The company, established on November 8, 2004, and listed on January 28, 2014, specializes in the mining, smelting, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals such as silver, lead, and zinc, creating an integrated production system and full industry chain layout [1] - The main business revenue composition is 99.87% from non-ferrous metals and their products, with only 0.13% from other sources [1] Group 2 - The top ten circulating shareholders of Hunan Silver include a fund under Yongying Fund, with the Gold Stock ETF (517520) newly entering the top ten shareholders in the third quarter, holding 22.7312 million shares, which is 1.04% of the circulating shares [2] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) was established on October 24, 2023, with a latest scale of 11.669 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 91.97%, ranking 58 out of 4189 in its category, and a one-year return of 89.86%, ranking 43 out of 4188 [2]