面对挑战，需以系统思维协同发力，健全运行机制，加快推进全国统一碳市场建设。 完善数字化体系和数据库统一。当前，我国碳排放监测、报告与核查体系已完成初步搭建，未来需要进 一步通过数字化赋能，加强互联互通。整合卫星遥感、物联网设备和区块链技术，构建覆盖碳排放全流 程的数字化监测体系，实现排放数据实时同步。整合生态环境、金融监管、数据管理等部门职能，完善 机构监管、功能监管、行为监管三位一体的监管体系，对控排企业、交易机构、核查单位实施全链条管 理。 强化碳金融支撑能力。针对当前全国碳市场参与主体以控排企业为主体、现货交易为主、碳金融手段有 限的现状，可借鉴欧盟碳市场经验，探索多种路径完善金融支持。支持地方设立碳市场发展专项资金， 吸引社会资本参与碳基础设施建设，或会同相关金融主管部门鼓励金融机构探索碳金融产品创新，挖掘 碳排放权价值，创新金融服务形式。 此外，我国区域发展存在差异的客观现实进一步加大了构建全国统一碳市场的复杂性。在坚持统一市场 规则的前提下，可以因地制宜探索差异化政策实施方案，在配额分配、履约机制等方面给予部分地区适 当政策倾斜，鼓励条件成熟地区先行先试，形成多层次、差异化的碳市场政策体系，为碳市 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of €63 - 76. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the EU carbon market. Positive factors include increased buying due to approaching compliance deadlines and strong auctions in the German primary market. Negative factors are the widening short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal, which encourages power generation to use more natural gas [1]. 3. Market Conditions Summary Primary Market - The auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, with a 2.91% increase, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, the auction volume was 160,700 tons, and the auction revenue was 115.93 million euros. On August 7, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.10 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 227.51 million euros [2]. Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.21 euros/ton, up 2.01%, and the trading volume was 28,200 lots, with an increase of 0.28 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, compared with August 7, 2025, the futures settlement price increased from 71.77 to 73.21 euros/ton, the trading volume increased from 2.54 to 2.82 million lots, and the open interest remained unchanged. The spot settlement price increased from 71.14 to 72.56 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume decreased from 2462 to 1602 lots [3]. 4. Strategy and Influencing Factors Strategy - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with the price range between €63 and 76 [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: As the compliance deadline approaches, compliance demand drives buying, and the German primary market auction is strong [1]. - Negative: The short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal further widens, encouraging power generation to use more natural gas instead of coal [1]. - Others: Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue, and it is hinted that the final armistice agreement may involve territorial exchange [1].

Group 1 - The steel industry is included in the national carbon market, which aims for a green and low-carbon transition, with the path still needing clarification [1] - As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances reached 679 million tons, with a transaction value of 46.64 billion yuan [1] - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering key industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with approximately 3,700 enterprises and an annual emission coverage of over 8 billion tons [1] Group 2 - The regulatory framework for the national carbon market has been established, consisting of administrative regulations, departmental rules, and technical specifications [2] - In 2024, the trading volume was 18.8 million tons, with a transaction value of 18.044 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.92% [2] - The carbon allowance price has increased from 48 yuan per ton at the start to a current range of 70-80 yuan per ton, with a peak above 100 yuan in April 2024 [2] Group 3 - The expansion of the carbon market to three additional industries faces challenges such as weak data foundations and insufficient carbon management capabilities [3] - The steel industry will undergo a phased and orderly entry into the carbon market, with a focus on improving data quality and enhancing enterprise capabilities [3] - The next steps include accelerating the green and low-carbon transition in the steel industry and familiarizing enterprises with market rules [3]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for July 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price indices and China Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] - The expected buy price for national carbon emission allowances in July 2025 is 70.67 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 76.67 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.67 yuan/ton [1] - The buy price index increased by 3.37% to 176.66, while the sell price index rose by 2.52% to 172.98, and the midpoint price index increased by 2.93% to 174.73 [1] Group 2 - In June, the carbon price continued to rise, starting from 68.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and reaching 76.57 yuan/ton by the end, with a monthly increase of over 12% [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in June was 781,000 tons, a 43.1% increase compared to May's 545,800 tons [2] - Global carbon markets showed varied performance in June, with different trading volumes and price trends across major carbon markets, and New Zealand's carbon market experienced the largest month-on-month price increase [2]

Group 1 - The introduction of international emissions trading at COP3 in 1997 aimed to help countries meet their emission reduction commitments through the purchase of carbon credits [1] - The carbon market is divided into mandatory and voluntary types, with Europe leading the establishment of emissions trading systems, followed by countries like China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia [1][3] - The lack of a unified international standard has hindered the establishment of a robust market, with the Paris Agreement's Article 6 still facing challenges in implementation due to verification method issues [1][8] Group 2 - The UN approved the "Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism" (PACM) in May 2025, providing guidance for evaluating the effectiveness of emission reduction projects [1] - The new standards include a baseline standard to estimate potential emissions without the mechanism and a leakage standard to account for unintended emissions increases [1][15] - The establishment of the "Development Carbon Market Alliance" by Singapore, Kenya, and the UK signifies a government-led initiative to advance carbon markets [2] Group 3 - Carbon markets help achieve emission reduction goals at lower costs, enhancing economic efficiency and promoting energy conservation awareness [3] - Major carbon markets include the EU carbon market and China's national carbon market, with the EU market being a mature example using an absolute cap-and-trade model [3][4] - China's carbon market, launched in July 2021, covers approximately 5.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions and includes 2,257 key emitting units [4] Group 4 - The Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in 2005, allowing developed countries to obtain certified emission reductions (CERs) through projects in developing countries [5] - The carbon market's core function is to create a carbon price signal that guides emission reduction actions, with the expectation that carbon prices will rise as emission caps tighten [5][6] Group 5 - The EU carbon market has seen a significant price increase, with expectations that prices will exceed €120 per ton by 2030 and €400 by 2040, reflecting the costs of advanced reduction measures [6] - The demand for carbon markets from countries is driven by the need to achieve climate goals cost-effectively, with different mechanisms in place across regions [6][7] Group 6 - The establishment of national carbon markets is crucial for countries to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement [7][9] - The EU's carbon market has undergone structural reforms to recover carbon prices after a prolonged period of low prices due to oversupply [7][9] Group 7 - The challenges in creating a global carbon market include historical issues with previous mechanisms and differing national interests between developed and developing countries [9][11] - The complexity of mechanism design and the need for clarity in methodologies and standards are significant barriers to establishing a unified global carbon market [9][10] Group 8 - The implementation of new standards aims to enhance the quality of carbon credits and ensure the authenticity of emission reductions, promoting high-quality development in global carbon markets [15][16] - Future directions include improving verification processes, enhancing international cooperation, and integrating carbon markets with global climate actions [15][17] Group 9 - China's transition from a seller to a buyer in the international carbon market poses challenges in aligning domestic mechanisms with international standards [19][20] - The national carbon market's tightening control over emissions will support China's dual carbon goals while balancing domestic and international climate trade requirements [20][21]

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Policy and Market Dynamics - The "Digital Transformation Implementation Plan for the Textile Industry" aims to promote high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, enhancing industry competitiveness and value chain levels[4]. - The core direction of the transformation emphasizes "greening," promoting energy conservation and sustainable development through digital means[11]. ESG Bond and Fund Trends - As of June 20, 2025, there are 6,057 ESG (green) bonds, a weekly increase of 6, with a total balance of 12.4 trillion yuan, down 5.7% from the previous week[12]. - The total number of Wind ESG investment funds reached 893, increasing by 135, with a total scale of 1,044.95 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth in ESG investment interest[12]. Carbon Market Activity - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market was 352.3 million tons, up 11.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative transaction value of 25.5 million yuan, increasing by 16.3%[25]. - The transaction price on June 20 was 73.1 yuan per ton, marking a 2.7% increase from June 13[29].