1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.98 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas is 3.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [3][6]. - In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - In the week of May 16, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. As of the week of May 15, the average culling age of culled hens was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - As of the week of May 15, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.12 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week. On May 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan per bird, an increase of 0.8 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the price of culled hens across the country decreased, and the average price in the main production areas was 4.99 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.04 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - Options: Wait and see [13].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 鸡蛋市场周报 存栏压力牵制下 期价维持低位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡微涨，09合约收盘价为3788元/500千克，较前一周+21元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑，且连续走低后，蛋价处于年内地位，市场逢低 有补货需求，且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑，现货价格有止跌回弹倾向。不过，目前蛋鸡存 栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足，供强需弱格局难改，或限 制其上涨空间。如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性， 对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，期价跌至前期低位后，总体 跌势放缓。 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 1、周度要点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent detection of antibiotic residues in "antibiotic-free" eggs sold by Hema has sparked significant consumer anxiety regarding food safety, raising questions about the reliability of such labels in the market [1][3][14]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On May 8, the Shandong Provincial Market Supervision Administration announced that a batch of "antibiotic-free" eggs from Hema was found to contain excessive levels of veterinary drug residues, including banned substances [1][3]. - The specific antibiotics detected were dimetridazole and trimethoprim, with the latter exceeding the maximum residue limit set by national standards [5][14]. - The affected eggs were sold by Qingdao Hema Network Technology Co., Ltd. and sourced from Xiaochi Egg Industry (Shandong) Co., Ltd. [3][5]. Group 2: Consumer Reaction - Consumers expressed disbelief and anger upon discovering that the "antibiotic-free" eggs they had been purchasing for years were not safe, leading to a surge in refund requests [9][10]. - Social media platforms saw a rapid increase in discussions and tutorials on how to obtain refunds for the affected eggs, highlighting the urgency of the situation [9][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The incident has led to a broader trust crisis in the market for "antibiotic-free" eggs, with consumers questioning the safety of all egg products [14][19]. - The concept of "antibiotic-free" eggs emerged in response to public concerns over antibiotic residues in food, but the lack of a unified national standard for such products has created confusion [19][22]. - The price of "antibiotic-free" eggs is significantly higher than regular eggs, with some consumers now questioning whether the premium is justified given the recent findings [23][25]. Group 4: Industry Standards and Practices - The absence of clear and consistent standards for "antibiotic-free" labeling allows for varying interpretations among producers, leading to potential consumer deception [19][22]. - The incident has prompted discussions about the need for stricter regulations and clearer definitions regarding what constitutes "antibiotic-free" products in the market [19][22]. - The reliance on self-regulation by companies, such as the claims made by producers about their products, raises concerns about accountability and consumer safety [19][22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain abundant with a high in - production存栏量. The spot price has started to decline in recent days, and the 06 contract is trading based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price in the main production areas is 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. The national mainstream prices mostly remained stable, with some regional variations [6]. - **In - production Laying Hens**: In April, the national in - production laying hen存栏量 was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated存栏量 for May - August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In April, the monthly chick hatchling output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 1.4% increase from the previous month and 2.5% year - on - year [7]. - **Hen Culling**: In the week of May 9, the national main production area hen culling volume was 17.25 million, a 4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age in the week of May 8 was 536 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of May 1, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,816 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 1, the average production - link weekly inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average circulation - link weekly inventory was 1.33 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 1, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 2, the expected profit per laying hen was 20.08 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - **Culled Hen Price**: The national culled hen price increased, with the main production area average price at 5.14 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2. Trading Logic With sufficient overall egg supply and high in - production存栏量, and the recent decline in spot prices, the 06 contract is trading based on the near - month delivery logic. It is advisable to go short on rallies [10]. 3.3. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Hold the previous short positions and consider partial profit - taking [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [11]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [11].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3702 | 3689 | 13 | 01-05 | 592 | 676 | -84 | | JD05 | 3110 | 3013 | 97 | 05-09 | -690 | -754 | 64 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3767 | 33 | 09-01 | 98 | 78 | 20 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.34 | ...

利润出现亏损 淘鸡意愿提升 正信期货鸡蛋周报 2025-5-12 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格明显下降， 淘鸡日龄小幅下降，大小码价差基本持平，鸡苗价 | | | 供应 | 格高位持续回落。 | 偏空 | | | 本周多地淘鸡价跟随蛋价下跌，部分规模化养殖企业顺势淘汰低产能老鸡，辽宁、山东等地 | | | | 老鸡淘汰量小幅增加，但要形成有效的去产能，仍需要时间。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅下降，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅下降。 | | | 需求 | 五一之后蛋价连续下跌，激发了下游市场的抄底情绪，经销商拿货积极性有所带动，产区走 | 中性 | | | 货加快，但终端市场消化节奏一般。随着南方逐渐进入梅雨季，高温高湿条件下，需求面临 | | | | 下降，而供应却在加速增长，供强需弱格局有望延续。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低，低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润出现亏损，养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the spot price of eggs remained weak. As of May 11, the average price of pink eggs was 2.8 yuan per catty, and the average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty. The current egg price is below the comprehensive cost line, approaching the daily feed cost. [4] - The supply and demand of eggs are still relatively loose, with significant supply pressure. As the egg price drops, the elimination of old chickens has accelerated slightly, but it is difficult to effectively relieve the supply pressure in the short term. [4] - Although there are issues with chicken diseases affecting egg production, it is expected that the increasing trend of egg supply in the future will not change. [4] - In terms of consumption, the low vegetable prices are a negative factor. However, as the egg price continues to fall, there are more egg promotions in other industries, increasing egg consumption. At the same time, the willingness to store eggs in cold storage has increased at low prices, providing short - term support for the egg price. [4] - It is expected that the short - term decline of egg prices will slow down, but the medium - term supply and demand of eggs will remain loose. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The average price of pink eggs was 2.80 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 4.1%. The average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty, down 0.15 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 5.0%. The price difference between red and pink eggs was 0.03 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 51.5%. [3][4] - **Basis**: The 06 basis was - 26 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 174 yuan from the previous period. The 09 basis was - 887 yuan per 501 kilograms, down 199 yuan from the previous period. The spot price dropped significantly this week, and the basis weakened. Currently, the futures have a premium over the spot. [4] - **Spread**: The 6 - 7 spread was - 129 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 2 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 1.5%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 732 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 27 yuan from the previous period. The short - term weakness of the spot and the potential increase in future supply pressure suppress the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts are supported by the logic of production capacity reduction and feed price increase. Therefore, the reverse spread logic of shorting near - month and longing far - month contracts still exists. [4] - **Strategy**: For the 06 - 10 contracts, maintain the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm. Pay attention to the reverse spread of shorting the 7 - month contract and longing the 9 - month contract. [4] 3.2 Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - The report presents historical data on the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the price difference between different types of eggs, and the basis and spread of different egg futures contracts from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][13] 3.3 Egg Supply - Side Data - **Laying Hens' Situation**: The in - production inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. At the end of April, it increased by 6.7% year - on - year. The egg - laying rate was 91.27%, down 0.17 percentage points from the previous period, a decrease of 0.19%. [3] - **Elimination Situation**: The price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan per catty, down 0.07 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 1.28%. The number of eliminated chickens was 17.25 million, an increase of 0.67 million from the previous period, an increase of 4.1%. The average age of eliminated chickens was 535 days, down 1 day from the previous period. [3] - **Chick Situation**: The price of laying hen chicks was 4.14 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 97%, down 2 percentage points from the previous period. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 45.975 million, down 0.35 million from the previous period, a decrease of 0.8%. [3] - **Inventory Situation**: The production inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous period, an increase of 1.7%. The circulation inventory was 1.32 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous period, an increase of 2.3%. The number of trucks arriving in the sales areas remained high. [3] 3.4 Egg Production Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The feed cost of eggs was 2.78 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.33 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. The cost of raising chickens was 34.09 yuan per chicken, up 0.05 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.1%. [3] - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of egg production was - 0.55 yuan per unit, down 0.25 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 81.7%. [3] 3.5 Egg Consumption - Side Data - The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 8591.6 tons, down 224.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.5%. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 565.83 tons, down 1.5 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.3%. [3]

华联期货分析称，节后下游终端购买力度有所减弱，经销商多为规避风险拿货偏谨慎，库存压力再现， 蛋价承压下探。5月新开产蛋鸡多为2025年1月前后补栏鸡苗，此阶段临近春节，养殖单位补栏相对谨 慎，鸡苗销量环比微降，预计5月开产蛋鸡数量环比减少，但当前可淘汰老鸡不多，全国在产蛋鸡存栏 量依旧在高位运行，供应中期相对宽裕，市场观望情绪浓厚。06合约或延续区间宽幅震荡，压力位参考 3100，支撑位2900。期权方面，可卖出虚值看涨期权。 正信期货表示，基于鸡蛋基本面周期的分析，判断当前所处位置与2020年上半年的情况较为类似，在养 殖利润出现亏损导致产能出清之前，鸡蛋期货近弱远强格局有望延续。操作上，建议暂观望，等待反套 时机。 五矿期货指出，假期国内蛋价整体表现平稳，局部小幅下跌，黑山报价持平于2.9元/斤，馆陶落0.06元 至2.87元/斤，供应持续增多，5月份蛋价或依旧偏弱，当中节后有小幅补库需求或导致蛋价小涨，但供 应压制，且随着气温升高和需求回落，蛋价整体趋势或维持向下。假期鸡蛋走货尚可，但库存偏稳定， 价格持平或小落，整体新开产的压力大过需求备货的支撑，印证供应依旧主导当前蛋价，随着气温升高 和新开产压力的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of eggs fluctuated and declined this week. The 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The feed raw material prices are rising due to Sino - US tariff policies, which supports the egg cost. However, the old chicken culling has slowed down again after the previous egg price increase, and the current laying - hen inventory is at a high level. The newly - opened production of the previously stocked laying hens is gradually increasing, so the egg supply is relatively sufficient. Meanwhile, as the festival stocking is coming to an end, the purchasing power of downstream terminals has weakened, and the egg price also tends to stop rising and decline. Affected by the decline of spot prices, the futures market has also weakened, and market volatility has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The 06 contract of egg futures closed down with fluctuations, at 2942 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Feed raw material price increase supports cost, but supply is sufficient and downstream demand is weakening, causing the spot price to decline and the futures market to follow suit with increased volatility [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 06 contract of egg futures closed down with fluctuations. The position was 118,678 lots, a decrease of 50,406 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 2902, compared with - 1593 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Wednesday, the registered warehouse receipts of eggs were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3208 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 103 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 06 contract futures price and the spot average price was + 266 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 110 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of April 29, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.78 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new - chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [38]. - **Culling Situation**: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age of chickens was 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of April 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2305.29 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3800 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of April 25, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was 0.05 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of April 25, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.25 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 10.38 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In March 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,903.32 tons, an increase of 1242.82 tons compared with 11,660.49 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 10.66%, and a month - on - month increase of 2188.58 tons compared with 10,714.73 tons in the previous month [62]. 3.4 Representative Enterprise - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is presented with a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [64].