文 | 姜振飞 来源 | NB的农产品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今日近月合约再度大跌，主要是前期市场对淘鸡节奏以及春节需求预期较高导致盘面升水较大， 期货盘面在交割月以及临近交割月走期现回归以及挤升水的逻辑，而远月合约持续上涨主要是四 季度现货价格低迷，市场补栏情绪较低，淘鸡量相对较大，供需过剩结构呈现逐步消化的趋势， 但目前行业产能潜力较大，鸡源较为充裕，加上未来不确定性的淘鸡节奏以及换羽情况，因此短 期的低水平补栏并不能完全代表着未来对应产能下降的幅度。从市场调研信息来看，对产业数据 以及信息了解的规模化企业对明年行情并不悲观，有扩张意愿，但中小规模企业以及散户，因数 据信息闭塞，仅关注当前行情，相对有些悲观，但若年前现货价格回暖以及春节后半个月现货价 格维持3元/斤以上的关口，中小规模企业以及散户根据往年养殖经验，其养殖信心将恢复，淘鸡 情绪将下降，补栏量及换羽量或将增加，因此明年供给端并不存在较为明显的缺口，出现单边趋 势的概率较小，不宜过度看涨明年鸡蛋价格。 期货方面，从期货升水结构来看，市场对明年行情较为期待，但中间涉及变量较多，远月单边逻 辑风险的较大。从交易的角度来看，远月持续 ...

Core Insights - The poultry and egg products industry in Hubei has been identified as one of the top ten key agricultural industry chains, significantly contributing to the income of millions of farmers and providing numerous job opportunities [1][8] - Traditional farming methods have led to financing challenges for farmers, hindering the scale and standardization of the poultry industry [1][2] - Postal Savings Bank of Hubei has developed innovative financial products and services to support the high-quality development of the poultry industry, including credit loans without collateral [2][3][6] Financing Challenges - Farmers often face difficulties in obtaining loans due to a lack of traditional collateral, leading to missed opportunities for expansion and procurement [1][2] - The "Two Agricultural Credit Value Loan" product allows farmers to secure loans based on their creditworthiness rather than physical collateral [3][7] Financial Support Initiatives - The Postal Savings Bank has issued over 50 billion yuan in small loans to more than 30,000 poultry industry clients, with over 11 billion yuan disbursed this year alone [1][5] - The bank's "chain service" approach extends financial support across the entire poultry industry chain, from farming to processing, ensuring sustainable development [4][5] Case Studies - A farmer in Shiyan City successfully secured a 200,000 yuan loan in just three days, enabling him to expand his operations and potentially increase sales by 10 million yuan [2][3] - Another farmer in Huanggang City has grown his poultry operation from 5,000 to 150,000 birds with continuous support from the Postal Savings Bank [4][5] Innovative Financial Models - The "Postal Agricultural Quick Loan" model allows for rapid loan approval and disbursement, significantly benefiting farmers during critical production periods [6][7] - The collaboration with provincial agricultural guarantee companies has further reduced financing costs for farmers [7] Future Outlook - The Postal Savings Bank aims to continue enhancing its financial services for rural development, focusing on innovative products and efficient service delivery to support the growth of the poultry industry [8]

短多长空思路 鸡蛋周报 2025/11/29 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价主流平稳，后半程小幅上涨，周内供应依然充足，需求无明显好转，蛋价上涨幅度较有限，周内老鸡淘汰继续加快， 鸡龄回落至489天；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.1元至2.8元/斤，周内最低2.7元/斤，馆陶周涨0.11元至2.69/斤，周内最低2.56元/斤，销 区回龙观周涨0.18元至3.05元/斤，东莞周持平于2.83元/斤；展望下周，在产存栏维持偏高，小蛋占比缓慢回落，气温不高，轮库方式下库 存压力不大，需求端支撑有限，但随着蛋价阶段低位的到来，短暂补库或支撑蛋价小涨。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，10月份补栏量进一步下降至7830万只，环比-0.1%，同比-12.7%； 蛋价反弹无力，养殖亏损扩大 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of eggs is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend, while the February and March contracts can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5][32] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated weakly. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.7 - 2.8 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 2.9 - 3.09 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The laying hens in the supply side were still at a high level but had eased compared to before. November was the off - season for egg consumption, so the overall egg price performance was average [4] 1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. In December, the demand for eggs will enter the peak season. Affected by seasonality, egg prices may rebound, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract has the expectation of Spring Festival stocking, but it has already given a certain premium, so it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The January contract will be range - bound, and the February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices. Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 3 - 3.2 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract fluctuated within a range. The demand in November was average, and the spot price changed little. On the one hand, the demand was less than in previous years; on the other hand, the current laying hen inventory was still at a high level, and the market was worried about future egg prices, so the futures price fluctuated weakly [10] 2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side**: In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. In November, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (a low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.29% (a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 15.95% (a medium - high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in November was about 91.94%, remaining stable and is expected to maintain the current level as the weather gets colder. In October, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan/feather, the same as last month. Recently, due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the breeding profit was in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased. From November 21st, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.21 million, a 3.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 492 days, one day less than the previous week [11][13] - **Demand Side**: The demand in November was average, and the seasonal peak season was less prosperous than in previous years. Although the recent demand has recovered, it is still at a medium - low level in the same period over the years. As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7472 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week. From January to October 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 44121.69 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In October, the absolute value of catering revenue was 51.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [20] - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [20] - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In November, the corn price was 2309 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3076 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2539 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.79 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. As of November 21st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [22] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On November 24th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 126.65. The vegetable price has risen significantly recently but is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of November 24th, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.04 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [27] 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to strengthen, but since it has already given a certain premium, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The February and March contracts are post - Spring Festival contracts. If the supply side pressure does not improve significantly and the demand is average, short - selling at high prices can be considered [32]

Core Viewpoint - Egg futures are experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 2.12% to 3283.00 yuan per 500 kilograms [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - As of October, the number of laying hens in production is 1.359 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% but a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, marking the highest level in nearly nine years [2] - The average age of culling hens is 492 days as of November 20, indicating an accelerated culling pace compared to previous weeks [2] Group 2: Market Prices - Current average prices for eggs in major production areas are as follows: Shandong at 6.09 yuan/kg (up 0.14 from yesterday), Hebei at 5.63 yuan/kg (up 0.02), Guangdong at 6.73 yuan/kg (unchanged), and Beijing at 6.16 yuan/kg (unchanged) [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Zhongtai Futures notes that the breeding sector is facing continuous losses, leading to a pessimistic sentiment and a faster culling pace, while the supply pressure is expected to remain high before the Spring Festival [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlights that since July, the number of chicks being replenished has significantly declined, which will lead to a decrease in new production starting around December [3] - The medium-term outlook for the egg industry suggests a reduction in new production numbers while the number of older hens being culled remains high, indicating a gradual alleviation of supply pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed lower. The market is caught between weak reality and strong expectations. The egg futures price maintained a low - level weak oscillation this week and may continue to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 3184 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 51 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6] - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding side have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. The low spot price has led to poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity still suppresses the market [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The January contract of egg futures oscillated downward. The position was 217,887 lots, an increase of 8,924 lots compared with last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,470, compared with - 17,934 last week, and the net short position increased [12] - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16] - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2896 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 143 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with last week. The basis between the active January contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 288 yuan per ton [22] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 309 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26] - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 20, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.71 yuan per kilogram [32] 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38] - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 507 days [43] - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2278.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3000 yuan per ton [47] - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.38 yuan per hen. The average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53] - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 8.08 yuan per kilogram [55] - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In September 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with the same period last month [61]

目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 鸡蛋周报：蛋价稳中有落 淘汰有所增加 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.8元/斤，较上周五下跌0.12元/斤，主销区均价3.13元/斤，较上周五下跌0.08元/斤。本周主产区价格持续下 ...

Core Insights - The price disparity between regular eggs and high-end "raw-eating" or "sterile" eggs is attributed to stringent production processes ensuring safety from Salmonella, rather than mere marketing hype [1][2] - "Sterile eggs" can mislead consumers into thinking they are completely free of bacteria, while in reality, they may still contain other microorganisms [1][2] - The market for "raw-eating" eggs is dominated by brands like Huang Tian E, which has maintained the highest quality sales for four consecutive years through comprehensive management systems [2][3] Industry Overview - The core standard for "raw-eating" eggs is that both the interior and exterior must be free of Salmonella, a major health risk associated with eggs [2] - The production process involves multiple rounds of testing and purification, with strict controls on temperature, air quality, and feed to prevent contamination [2] - The lack of national standards for low-priced egg products has led to a regulatory vacuum, resulting in counterfeit products flooding the market [2] Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to check labels and choose well-known brands to avoid low-price traps, as many online products do not meet safety standards [2] - Experts recommend cooking methods that preserve nutrients while ensuring safety, such as the "golden 8 minutes" boiling technique [3] - The nutritional value of eggs is highlighted, with egg yolks being a rich source of protein and essential nutrients, countering the misconception that they are merely high in cholesterol [2][3]

Core Insights - The sales of raw-eating eggs are rising on major e-commerce platforms, driven by younger consumers' insights into their parents' nutritional needs and a trend towards quality consumption [1][2] Group 1: Safety Concerns - Food safety is the primary concern for nutritional supplementation among the elderly, as traditional eggs pose a risk of Salmonella contamination, leading families to avoid undercooked egg dishes [1] - The introduction of raw-eating eggs addresses this concern, as they undergo stringent quality control to eliminate pathogens, allowing for better nutrient retention without the risks associated with traditional cooking methods [1] - Huang Tian E, a leading brand, has established a comprehensive quality control system, maintaining a high Salmonella detection pass rate, which reassures younger consumers about their parents' health [1] Group 2: Nutritional Adaptation - Eggs are an ideal food source for the elderly, rich in high-quality protein, lecithin, and essential vitamins and minerals, which are crucial for maintaining cardiovascular health and cognitive function [2] - Huang Tian E's raw-eating eggs offer superior nutritional retention and a better eating experience, with a focus on reducing fishy taste and enhancing texture, making them suitable for the elderly's sensitive digestive systems [2] - Sales data indicates that Huang Tian E's gift boxes, labeled as suitable for elders and low in fishy taste, saw a 47% year-on-year increase in 2024, highlighting their popularity among younger consumers gifting to parents [2] Group 3: Consumption Upgrade - Younger consumers are shifting from basic nutritional needs to a focus on precision, safety, and high quality in their purchases for parents, reflecting a broader change in consumption philosophy [3] - The consumer base for raw-eating eggs has expanded beyond young mothers to include urban seniors and younger individuals purchasing for their parents, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality experience [3] - Huang Tian E has introduced exclusive gift cards for various occasions, facilitating the expression of filial piety through convenient gifting options, while the product's diverse presentation is enhancing its presence in elderly households [3]

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The spot market has weakened again this week. The prices of pink eggs in Hubei and Hunan have gradually declined, while the prices of red eggs in the north have remained stable. The market sales have returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there will be no significant price drops as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, prices have declined this week. The near - term contracts have dropped significantly as they are approaching delivery, while the far - term contracts are relatively firm due to the expectation of a decline in inventory. [8] - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The monthly replenishment data in the past four months shows that the laying - hen inventory is expected to decline slightly in the medium term. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a market reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In terms of operation, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The low spot price may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts is advisable. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2601, 2602, and 2512 have declined, with decreases of 1.73%, 0.13%, and 0.26% respectively. The average price in the main production areas is 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat the market as a low - level fluctuation in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - term contracts on dips, and consider a reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Elimination Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the national elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend. [18] - **Elimination Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month. [18]