美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特明确表示，这一法案的实施将会刺激市场对美国国债的需求，从而有助于 缓解当前美债面临的压力。法案通过的深层原因根本上在于美国在全球货币主导权的争夺战中不断发 力。 这一重要的立法举措，不仅代表着美国在加密货币领域迈出了重要的一步，而且可能对全球数字货币的 格局产生重大影响，从而进一步巩固美元在数字经济时代的主导地位。根据市场研究机构的统计，随着 法案的通过，稳定币市场的规模预计将在2028年前膨胀至2万亿美元，而当前这个市场的规模仅为约 2500亿美元，显示出巨大的增长潜力。 2025年7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞成、122票反对的压倒性票数，顺利通过了名为《指导和建 立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（GENIUS Act，简称"天才法案"）的立法。该法案在此之前已经获得参 议院的批准，目前只待总统特朗普的签字即可生效，正式成为法律。 3. 产业战略考量：加密货币挖矿对算力的巨大需求推动了半导体产业的迅猛发展。美国的一些半导体企 业如英伟达、台积电等，与"挖矿热"密切相关，其快速发展得到进一步助力。新法案的通过或将对相关 产业链带来刺激效应。 值得关注的是，新法案还规定，若海外稳定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin industry is transitioning from "concept exploration" to "compliance implementation," with a focus on regulatory clarity and the establishment of a full industry chain in the Hong Kong stock market, where nearly 20 stablecoin concept stocks are involved [1]. Group 1: Business Positioning - Hong Kong stablecoin concept stocks generally focus on cross-border payments and broad RWA applications, with a "breadth-first" business model [2]. - In contrast, Huajian Medical's IVDD stablecoin adopts a "depth-first" strategy, concentrating on high-barrier medical innovation assets, including gene therapies and targeted drugs [3]. Group 2: Technical Architecture - Most Hong Kong stablecoin concept stocks utilize a "public chain + smart contract" generic architecture [4]. - Huajian Medical's IVDD employs a "hybrid architecture + deep adaptation to medical scenarios," enhancing asset tokenization precision and efficiency [6][7]. Group 3: Compliance Pathways - Hong Kong stablecoin concept stocks exhibit a "license-driven" compliance approach, with companies like Guotai Junan International obtaining licenses to provide stablecoin trading services [8][9]. - Huajian Medical's IVDD follows a "license + ecosystem" dual-driven model, applying for a stablecoin license while building a medical data flow platform [10]. Group 4: Ecological Value - Most Hong Kong stablecoin concept stocks are positioned as "payment tools," focusing on facilitating transactions [11][12]. - Huajian Medical's IVDD aims to be a "medical industry innovator," enhancing asset liquidity and potentially transforming the medical asset value ecosystem [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation and the advancement of the U.S. GENIUS Act will lead to differentiation among Hong Kong stablecoin concept stocks [14]. - Huajian Medical's IVDD, as a pioneer in medical RWA, is expected to replicate successful financing models and expand its asset management scale significantly [15][16].

Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices from July 14 to July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10913.84 points, up 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index at 2277.15 points, up 3.17% [2][3] - Approximately 57% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 149 stocks rising over 15% and 20 stocks declining over 15% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, while traditional sectors such as real estate, media, public utilities, and non-bank financials saw declines [2] International Market Overview - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32% to 44342.19 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.01% to 6296.79 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.05% to 20895.66 points [4][5] - European markets showed mixed results, with the FTSE 100 up 0.22%, the CAC 40 up 0.01%, and the DAX down 0.33% [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil falling by 0.30% to $67.34 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.35% to $69.28 per barrel [4][5] Company Developments - Yushutech has initiated its listing guidance with CITIC Securities as the advisory firm, aiming to accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots [6] - The U.S. has enacted a regulatory framework for stablecoins with the signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump, marking a significant step towards the regulation of digital currencies [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [9] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the new round of A-share market trends has begun, with a focus on high-growth sectors and resource price increases [12] - The stablecoin market is expected to expand as regulatory frameworks are established, presenting investment opportunities [11]

行业报告 | 行业点评 计算机 证券研究报告 场景广度决定，稳定币未来谁将领跑 7 月 19 日，美国总统特朗普正式签署《GENIUS 法案》，为美国境内合法 使用稳定币建立监管框架。特朗普称其可能是「自互联网诞生以来最伟大 的金融科技革命」。稳定币行业催化不断，针对后市演绎，我们做出以下判 断。 1、发币方是稳定币产业链价值链核心，而场景是关键中的关键 参考美元稳定币发展，中国香港稳定币发币方利润有望快速体现并且具备可 观的空间。货币价值的网络效应决定，发币方需与场景运营方深度合作才 能跑出。比如 Circle 与 Coinbase 深度合作，进而跃居行业 TOP2。 2、支付场景中，小商品城、中油资本所在的相关场景进出口总额超万亿 不同于美元稳定币以 Defi 项目交易为主，港元稳定币侧重在跨境支付。根 据义乌海关，2024 年义乌进出口总额 6689 亿元，对"一带一路"国家合金 进出口 4133 亿元，占同期义乌进出口总值 61.8%。中国 24 年原油进口金额 约 2.31 万亿人民币，管道天然气进口金额 1501.77 亿人民币。基于此，我 们看好小商品城、中油资本的卡位优势。 3、交易所和跨境支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin concept has emerged as the largest and most sustained investment theme in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets since late May 2025, significantly driving up the stock prices of related companies [1][11]. Market Performance - In the A-share market, companies like Hengbao Co. (002104.SZ) and Sifang Jingchuang (300468.SZ) saw increases of over 220% and 180% respectively within 31 and 23 trading days [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, Lianlian Digital (02598) surged by 125% in three trading days, while Guotai Junan International (01788) experienced a nearly 200% increase in the same period [1]. - CIRCLE, listed in the US, achieved a maximum increase of 864.52% within 12 trading days [1]. Stablecoin Industry Chain - The stablecoin industry chain is divided into three main parts: upstream (issuers, reserve asset managers, blockchain infrastructure), midstream (exchanges, market makers), and downstream (applications like cross-border payments and RWA) [1][2]. - Among 18 companies in the Hong Kong market, 7 focus on application layers, primarily in cross-border payments and RWA [2]. Company Valuations - The market capitalization of companies involved in the stablecoin industry varies significantly, with notable players including: - Guotai Junan International: 604 billion - China Everbright Holdings: 134 billion - OSL Group: 113 billion [3]. - Companies like ZhongAn Online and OSL Group have achieved full-chain layouts, covering issuance, custody, circulation, and cross-border settlement [4][5]. Recent Stock Movements - The most significant stock price increases were observed in companies like Jinyong Investment and Guotai Junan International, with increases of 653.77% and 526.55% respectively [7][8]. - However, some companies with high stock price increases may be subject to speculation, as their business developments are still in the planning stages [9]. Regulatory Environment - The upcoming implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 is expected to influence the market dynamics, with a focus on the issuance of stablecoin licenses [11][12]. - Approximately 50 to 60 companies have expressed intentions to apply for licenses, with expectations that only 3-4 licenses will be granted initially [11]. Future Market Potential - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion as of July 2025, with projections suggesting it could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% [14]. - The RWA market, a key area for stablecoin applications, is projected to exceed $16 trillion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [14].

Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation - The U.S. Congress has officially approved the stablecoin bill with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against, awaiting Trump's signature for enactment [1] - The bill provides significant legitimacy for stablecoin issuers, with major players like JPMorgan and Bank of America viewing it as a prerequisite for entering the stablecoin market [1] - The next step for Congress is to advance a comprehensive legislative framework for the cryptocurrency industry [1] Group 2: Luxury Car Consumption Tax Adjustment - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have announced a reduction in the consumption tax threshold for ultra-luxury cars from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan [2] - Pure electric and fuel cell vehicles without cylinder capacity will only be taxed at the retail level, while those with cylinder capacity will continue to be taxed at both production (import) and retail levels [2] Group 3: OpenAI's ChatGPT Agent Release - OpenAI has launched the ChatGPT Agent, a general-purpose AI agent capable of autonomous thinking and action [3] - The ChatGPT Agent can select appropriate tools from its skill set, including Operator, Deep Research, and ChatGPT, to complete complex tasks [3] Group 4: Support for Free Trade Zones - The Ministry of Commerce has expressed support for free trade pilot zones to actively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules [4] - The initiative aims to enhance the construction of open platforms and accelerate the implementation of core policies for the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] Group 5: Market Insights - Guotai Junan predicts that the stock index may experience horizontal consolidation, which is seen as a preparation for new highs, with short-term market fluctuations [6] - Zheshang Securities suggests that the market may require horizontal consolidation in the short term, with limited downside potential and opportunities for individual stocks [7] - Dongfang Securities emphasizes that the technology growth sector remains a long-term market focus, supported by policy and industrial upgrades [8] Group 6: Policy Focus and Industry Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting new urban infrastructure construction and accelerating the upgrade of old pipelines, which may create more opportunities in the building materials industry [9] - Shenzhen has announced measures to support the micro-short drama industry, offering up to 2 million yuan in funding for projects [10] - Recent advancements in brain-computer interfaces have been reported, with 10 epilepsy patients achieving "thought-based communication," indicating a growing focus on medical applications in this sector [11]

证券研究报告 合规时代开启，全球竞赛加速 ——稳定币行业深度报告 行业评级：看好 2025 年 7 月 17 日 分析师 刘雯蜀 分析师 童非 研究助理 张致远 邮箱 liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 tongfei01@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 zhangzhiyuan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523020002 证书编号 S1230524050005 摘要 2 1、稳定币：币值稳定的数字货币 • 稳定币是锚定法币、商品或加密资产的加密数字货币，通过足额抵押或算法调节供应量维持价值稳定。相较传统支付，稳定币依托区块链实现点 对点实时清算，交易成本低（如币安$ENA合约资金费率仅为0.25%，2023 Q3全球平均汇款成本为6.18%）、高效（只需几秒到几分钟内，传统 时间需3-5天）、门槛低（稳定币最低只需几美元即可转账）。稳定币已广泛用于交易撮合、DeFi、供应链金融及跨境支付，成为数字经济生态的 重要基石。 2、核心催化：香港《稳定币条例》8月1日实施，美国推进GENIUS法案 95% • 2025年6月6日，香港特区政府在宪报发布公告，指定202 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China, the performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, and the implications of U.S. economic policies under the Trump administration. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Domestic Supply and Demand Rebalancing** The core policy goal for the second half of the year is to achieve domestic supply and demand rebalancing through a combination of policies to address the challenges posed by the continuous negative growth of PPI [2][18][35] 2. **A-Share Market Trends** The A-share market is expected to exhibit a slow bull market trend, with a significant focus on the period around September when U.S.-China tariffs are clarified and domestic incremental policies are introduced [5][29][36] 3. **Hong Kong Stock Market Performance** The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, benefiting from a weak dollar environment and expectations of a shift in economic power [6][7] 4. **U.S. Economic Policy Shifts** The Trump administration's economic policies have shifted focus from austerity and debt reduction to tax cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize the economy and reduce U.S. debt costs [8][11] 5. **Challenges in the U.S. Economy** The U.S. economy faces challenges such as rising unemployment, high deficit rates, and inflationary pressures, which are expected to impact economic performance in the second half of the year [11][14] 6. **Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies** The overall market sentiment is expected to remain stable, with specific investment strategies focusing on sectors like financial innovation, energy transformation, and AI [31][37] 7. **Consumer Spending Highlights** Key areas of consumer spending to watch include service-related consumption, new consumption patterns, and childcare subsidies, which are expected to improve in the second half of the year [20][22] 8. **Impact of Anti-Inflation Measures** Anti-inflation measures are expected to affect traditional industries significantly, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and steel [21][34] 9. **Stock-Bond Rebalancing** The trend of stock-bond rebalancing is supported by low bond yields and the increasing attractiveness of equities, particularly in the context of a weak dollar [3][35] 10. **Future Market Expectations** The market is anticipated to experience a slow bull trend, with significant attention on the September timeframe for potential policy shifts and economic indicators [27][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **ETF Inflows** Stock ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, becoming an important vehicle for asset allocation among residents, indicating a shift in investment preferences [4][25][26] 2. **Global Economic Context** The global economic context, including the performance of non-U.S. assets and the implications of a weak dollar, is crucial for understanding the investment landscape [9][15] 3. **Long-term Investment Themes** Long-term investment themes include a focus on sectors like stable coins, energy transformation, AI, and defense, which are expected to drive future growth [33][38] 4. **Policy-Driven Market Dynamics** The dynamics of the market are heavily influenced by policy decisions, particularly in response to inflation and economic pressures, which will shape investment strategies moving forward [34][36]

Group 1 - The recent surge in stablecoin-related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks indicates a strong market interest, with notable performances from companies like Jinshi Technology and China San San Media [1][2] - The legislative progress in Hong Kong and the U.S. regarding stablecoin regulations is expected to provide clearer guidelines and promote the development of the stablecoin industry [1][4] - Major financial centers worldwide, including the U.S., EU, and South Korea, are establishing regulatory frameworks for digital currencies, which is likely to enhance market sentiment and facilitate institutional involvement [2][3] Group 2 - Internet giants and traditional financial institutions are rapidly positioning themselves in the stablecoin market, recognizing its potential as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity [2][3] - Companies like Ant Group and JD.com are actively seeking stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, indicating a competitive landscape for stablecoin issuance [3] - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $3.7 trillion by 2026, driven by cross-border payments and the tokenization of real-world assets [4] Group 3 - The total market size of cryptocurrency stablecoins has surpassed $250 billion, with trading volumes exceeding $20 trillion last year, reflecting the growing demand for stablecoins in the digital asset market [5]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the stablecoin industry, particularly focusing on the recent developments in Hong Kong's stablecoin legislation and its implications for the market [2][3][4]. Core Points and Arguments - **Hong Kong Stablecoin Legislation**: The stablecoin issuance licensing system was officially launched on May 30, marking the world's first regulatory framework centered on value-backed stablecoins [2][3]. - **Market Expansion**: The stablecoin industry is expected to experience significant market scale expansion, driven by the issuance of stablecoins and the technological management of these assets [3][4]. - **USDC Listing**: Circle, the issuer of USDC, went public with a stock price increase of up to 240% on its first trading day, indicating high market interest [4]. - **Impact of US-China Trade Relations**: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are increasing the demand for cross-border transactions, which is beneficial for the stablecoin market [4][5]. - **Tariff Developments**: Recent tariff announcements by the US, including a 50% tariff extension on the EU, are influencing trade dynamics and may affect various industries, including technology and semiconductors [5][6]. - **Industrial Demand Trends**: Manufacturing demand showed a slight decline, but the impact of tariffs was relatively minor, suggesting resilience in the industrial sector [7][8]. - **Profit Margin Improvements**: Industrial companies reported a profit margin increase of 0.17%, primarily due to reduced management and financial costs rather than sales volume improvements [8][9]. - **Sector Performance**: The agricultural sector remains stable, while other industries like textiles and furniture are experiencing weaker demand. The service sector, including hospitality and financial services, is performing better than manufacturing [10][11]. - **Long-term Investment Value**: Despite short-term fluctuations, both stablecoin and rare earth sectors are viewed as having long-term investment value due to their strategic importance in the current trade environment [12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Regulatory Environment**: The conference emphasized the importance of regulatory frameworks in shaping the future of the stablecoin market and its potential for growth [2][3]. - **Consumer Stability**: The consumer goods sector is seen as more stable compared to export-driven industries, which are currently influenced by preemptive demand due to tariffs [11][12]. - **Trade Data Insights**: Some specific commodities, such as wood and plastic products, are showing strong demand despite the overall tariff impacts, indicating sector-specific resilience [12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the stablecoin industry and its broader economic implications.