华安证券研报指出，海大集团1H2025归母净利润26.4亿元，同比增长24.2%。1H2025公司饲料销量约 1,470万吨（含内销105万吨），同比增长约25%，饲料外销增量约284万吨，已接近全年300万吨以上增 量目标，全年增量目标有望上修，其中，海外饲料销量同比快速增长40%；与此同时，公司生猪出栏量 稳步增长，生猪养殖风险可控且盈利丰厚。预计2025-2027年公司饲料外销量分别达到2881万吨、3169 万吨、3485万吨，同比分别增长18%、10%、10%，生猪出栏量660万头、693万头、728万头，同比分别 增长10%、5%、5%，公司实现主营业务收入1397.9亿元、1580.6亿元、1790.8亿元，同比分别增长 22.0%、13.1%、13.3%，实现归母净利润53.13亿元、56.95亿元、60.83亿元，同比分别增长18.0%、 7.2%、6.8%，归母净利润前值2025年51.58亿元、2026年55.02亿元、2027年59.09亿元，本次上调的主要 原因是，调整2025-2027年饲料销量、饲料价格、生猪出栏量和猪价预期，维持"买入"评级不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Haida Group achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.639 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.16%, with performance largely in line with expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company realized feed sales of 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, with external sales nearing the annual target for 2025 [1] - The feed business, as the primary core business, is steadily progressing towards the sales target of 51.5 million tons by 2030 [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - By product type, aquatic feed grew by approximately 16% year-on-year, poultry feed external sales increased by about 24%, and pig feed saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 43% [1] Group 3: Livestock Farming Strategy - In the pig farming business, the company continues to focus on building the capabilities of its pig farming team and innovating a light-asset model, exploring and implementing an operational model of "purchasing piglets, company + family farms, locking in profits, and hedging risks" [1] - With the enhancement of team professional capabilities and the iterative exploration of the model, overall farming risks are controllable and profitability is considerable [1]

Group 1 - The swine breeding sector is experiencing a recovery in pig prices due to policy guidance, with post-slaughter weights declining and supply-demand dynamics realigning, indicating a positive outlook for prices [1] - Long-term capacity cycle bottoms are becoming clearer, suggesting the sector may enter a prolonged period of profitability [1] - The recovery in swine inventory is boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with the African swine fever vaccine entering clinical trials, which is expected to drive growth in the animal health sector [1] Group 2 - In the planting chain, the upward trend in grain prices is established, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries [1] - Recent increases in natural rubber prices are attributed to rainy weather in Southeast Asia affecting raw material output, maintaining a tight supply situation, while downstream tire production rates are recovering, supporting rubber prices [1] - In the white feather broiler sector, prices for live chickens and chicks have increased by 2.56% and 38.38% week-on-week, respectively, driven by the summer stocking season [1] Group 3 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock breeding, feed processing, and animal health to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The index focuses on upstream industry allocation within the agricultural and food supply chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope has returned to profitability in the first half of 2025 after four years of losses, with projected net profits between 680 million and 780 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.217 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of approximately 155.85% to 164.07% compared to a loss of 1.217 billion yuan in the previous year [2] - The projected non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 627 million and 727 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 1.316 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of about 147.63% to 155.23% [2] - In the first half of 2025, New Hope sold 8.4493 million pigs, a slight decrease of 239,300 pigs compared to the previous year, generating sales revenue of 12.053 billion yuan, down from 13.048 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Business Operations - The improvement in profitability is attributed to enhanced production management and biosecurity measures in the pig farming sector, leading to reduced costs despite lower pig prices [2][3] - The company has achieved a significant reduction in breeding costs, with the top 25% of farms reducing costs to 13.6 yuan per kilogram in 2024 and aiming for 12.5 yuan per kilogram in the first quarter of 2025 [3] - New Hope's feed business, which has been a core operation for over 40 years, achieved a total sales volume of 25.96 million tons in 2024, accounting for 8.2% of the national total production [4][6] Group 3: International Expansion - New Hope is accelerating its overseas feed business expansion, targeting a sales volume of 6 million tons in 2025, with plans to potentially increase production capacity by 3 to 4 million tons in the next 3 to 5 years [5][6] - The company has established a clear market presence in overseas regions, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and Egypt, and is focusing on expanding its footprint in these markets [6] - New Hope has initiated an employee stock ownership plan aimed at core employees involved in overseas operations, indicating a commitment to international growth [6]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the current reporting period, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.217 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a growth of 155.85% to 164.07% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 627 million to 727 million yuan, compared to a loss of 1.316 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating a growth of 147.63% to 155.23% [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 0.14 yuan to 0.16 yuan, a recovery from a loss of 0.28 yuan per share in the prior year [1] Group 2 - The company has improved its pig farming operations by completing multiple biosecurity upgrades and enhancing production management, leading to a reduction in breeding costs despite a year-on-year decline in average pig prices [1] - The feed business has also been optimized, achieving both volume and profit growth in the first half of the year [1]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit of between 190 million yuan and 260 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [1][2] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 115 million yuan and 185 million yuan [1][2] - In the same period last year, the company reported a net loss of 34.05 million yuan and a net loss of 32.33 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1][2] Group 2 - The main reasons for the turnaround include increased sales in feed, poultry, and hogs, along with lower prices for key feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn, and a decrease in breeding costs for hogs and poultry [2]

Group 1 - The company expects a loss of 21 million to 25 million yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a loss of 41.78 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a potential improvement of 40.16% to 49.74% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 44 million to 48 million yuan, while the loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 39.66 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.94% to 21.03% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be a loss of 0.026 to 0.031 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.052 yuan per share in the previous year [1] Group 2 - The company has communicated that the performance forecast data is a preliminary estimate and has not been reviewed by the accounting firm [1] - The reduction in losses in the breeding business is attributed to cost-cutting measures, while feed sales volume increased by 44% year-on-year, contributing to an increase in domestic market share, although profitability in the feed business declined due to a decrease in gross margin [1] - The increase in non-recurring gains and losses compared to the previous year is mainly due to an increase in disposal gains from biological assets by approximately 9 million yuan and gains from futures business by approximately 11 million yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to have high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly. The overall price of soybean meal this year is expected to be at a relatively low level with high inventory, and the price fluctuation may show a mild decline or slow increase. The real potential positive driving force may appear from December to January of the next year [19][22][36] - For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet. There are potential risks of tight cargo rights from December to January of the next year, which may push up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [6][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Broiler Industry Chain Profit - Chicken苗 prices have dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chicken苗 prices falling below 2 yuan per piece at the end of June (about 3 yuan per piece at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, while the slaughter link has a small loss. The deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales volume. The frozen product sales are poor, and the inventory pressure is high. The 817 broiler breeding profit is not good [2] - Except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors in the breeding link, such as poultry and aquaculture, are not good [13] Oil Mill Dynamics - Some oil mills have account - inventory situations and start to urge customers to pick up goods. The oil mill operating rate in Shandong is expected to be at a high level by mid - July or the end of July [3] - This year, the overall oil mill crushing profit is okay. Some small - scale crushing plants that were shut down before have resumed production. The sales progress of foreign - funded oil mills is similar to that of the same period last year, while the sales progress of private oil mills is relatively slow [16][29] Soybean Meal Usage and Addition Ratio - Currently, the daily soybean meal usage has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected that the daily soybean meal usage in July will remain stable compared with June. If the formula remains unchanged in August and September, the usage is expected to continue to increase month - on - month, with the increase mainly coming from the growth of feed sales [4] - The current soybean meal addition ratios are: 6 - 8% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to be maintained until September - October. If wheat is used to replace corn, the impact on soybean meal demand is limited, with only about 1% reduction in usage [4] Inventory and Sales - It is expected that the soybean meal inventory pressure will increase significantly in mid - July. Feed mills, as buyers of the M2507 soybean meal futures contract warehouse receipts, are reluctant to take delivery because current feed enterprises prefer to use 46% protein soybean meal [5] - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while the sales progress from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12] - The soybean meal market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The sales of oil mills in July have basically been sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10% [22][32] Procurement - Enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans currently but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends. For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet [16][25] - The current purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans for the August shipment is 85%, 35% for the September shipment, and 20% for the October shipment. If US soybeans are not purchased, it is expected that the domestic supply from November to December can still be maintained [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]