2025 年 05 月 05 日 业绩验证的关键点 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/04/28-25/05/05) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 - ⚫ 一、2024 年报和 2025 一季报验证收官，我们总结 4 个业绩验证的关键点： ⚫ 1. 全 A 两非盈利相对于正常季节性 24Q4 偏弱，25Q1 偏强。25Q1 全 A 两非盈利额外 恢复程度处于历史高值。全 A 两非归母净利润同比增速，24Q4 为-55%大幅低于预期， 25Q1 为 6.3%高于预期。24Q4 和 25Q1，全 A 两非营收同比与名义 GDP 同比变化 ...

当前时点如何看待云基础资源投资机会 20250429 摘要 • 2025 年云基础设施市场景气度预计快速提升，受益于 AI 应用落地和各大 厂商 AI 芯片的推出，云技术资源需求将进入新一轮成长周期，总投入预计 达 3,800 亿人民币。 • 云计算板块在一季度经历深度调整后，悲观预期已充分消化，随着财报季 到来，若实际需求未明显下滑，有望迎来预期修复，当前时点适合布局。 • 国内云计算结构与海外不同，推理相关占比预计更高，模型和应用进展良 好，如阿里巴巴发布原生多模态大模型，AI 模型应用能力和算力仍有显著 增长空间。 • IDC 行业供需格局改善，2025 年交付节奏和规模较大，重点关注收入端 兑现情况，三大运营商一季报显示 IDC 业务快速增长，龙头公司回调至年 初位置，是布局良机。 • 数据中心配套建设依赖 IDC 厂商资本开支扩张，2025 年是资本开支扩张 年份，业绩确定性强，散热系统受确认节奏影响，需关注存货和合同负债 变化，云计算板块趋势良好，回调是配置机会。 Q&A 如何看待云技术资源的投资机会？ 云技术资源的投资机会非常值得关注。首先，从今年（2025 年）2 月份开始， 国内进入了 AI ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on April 29, with active sectors including construction decoration, beauty care, and banking, while TMT sectors like computers and electronics continued to adjust [1] - The AI ETF Huaxia (159381) on the ChiNext fell by 0.24%, but its constituent stock Bochuang Technology surged over 17%, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [1] - The global first commercial intelligent computing supernode was recently launched in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, suggesting a potential continuation of the partial recovery trend in the computing industry chain [1] Group 2 - After previous adjustments, the artificial intelligence sector has seen a significant decrease in crowding, with funds actively entering the market, as evidenced by the Huaxia AI ETF attracting a total of 11.4634 million yuan over the last five trading days [2] - The Huaxia AI ETF tracks the ChiNext AI index, with a daily fluctuation range of ±20%, and the median total market capitalization of its constituent stocks is only 15.4 billion yuan, indicating a focus on small and mid-cap stocks [2] - The ETF covers leading companies across various sub-sectors, including IDC computing leasing, optical modules, cloud computing, and domestic software [2]

通信行业超跌方向梳理及推荐 20250410 2025-04-11 摘要 • 关税问题虽引发市场情绪波动，但对通信行业供应链格局影响有限，中国 厂商凭借 20 年积累的生产力韧性，在全球化产业格局中仍占据优势地位， 短期内可通过协商谈判解决，长期看，全球化产能布局增强企业韧性。 • 关税对头部公司如新设、旭创利润下修极限情况约为 20%-30%，但东南 亚产能提升可将最终影响控制在 10%以内；器件公司如天孚通信、袁杰等 影响更小，极限测试情况下不超过 10%。 • AI 能力快速提升推动应用侧发展，光模块、ASIC、CPU 等细分领域迎来 投资机会。IDC 行业受益于 AI 需求带动的数据中心增长，供需结构改善背 景下，IDC 租金价格预计上涨，算力方向上的 IDC 是逢低布局机会。 • 数据中心交换机市场前景强劲，高速数据传输交换机如 400G 逐步成为主 导产品，并向 800G 升级，提升产品竞争格局和盈利能力，锐捷、紫光菲 菱科思等设备商值得关注。 • 光通信技术创新趋势包括 400G PAM4 薄膜磷酸锂技术和多芯光纤高速光 模块，多芯光纤可减少数据中心布线复杂性，光交换机（OTS）将推动 AI 网 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI-driven sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas AI-driven sectors like servers, switches, and optical modules [5] Core Insights - The Trump administration's tariffs on China are expected to pressure high export-exposed sectors in the short term, while domestic alternatives in computing power are recommended for investment [2][3] - OpenAI has secured a significant $40 billion funding round, with approximately $18 billion allocated for the "Stargate" data center project [3][7] - The OFC 2025 conference showcased advancements in optical communication technologies, highlighting the importance of 1.6T optical modules and 200G optical chips [2][10] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication sector is experiencing steady growth, with operators reporting a 0.9% year-on-year increase in telecom revenue for the first two months of 2025, totaling CNY 295 billion [17][18] - Domestic IDC manufacturers are less affected by tariffs due to their low overseas revenue exposure and strong supply chain control [13] Server Market - The server index has seen a decline of 1.37% this week, but demand for computing power remains strong due to ongoing capital expenditures from North American cloud providers [7][10] - Major players like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, indicating robust demand for server infrastructure [7][10] Switch Market - The OFC conference highlighted the introduction of new optical circuit switches (OCS) designed for AI workloads, which promise low latency and high scalability [10][11] - Domestic switch manufacturers are beginning to enter the commercial phase with new products, while the overall industry is still in its early stages [10][11] Optical Module Market - The optical module index has decreased by 0.89% this week, with a focus on low-power designs and innovations in CPO/MPO technologies [11][30] - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, driven by AI advancements and infrastructure needs [11][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Century Internet, Huayi Group, and 361 Degrees, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [19][25][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in capital expenditure for Century Internet, projecting a 101-141% increase in 2025, driven by strong demand in the AIDC sector [15]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are experiencing increased investment from both domestic and international giants, which is expected to accelerate AI application deployment [16]. - The report emphasizes the robust growth potential in the AIDC cloud computing market, with recommendations for various companies across different segments [17]. - Huayi Group is expected to see a revenue increase of 19.4% in 2024, with a focus on expanding production capacity and optimizing customer structure [19]. - 361 Degrees anticipates breaking the 10 billion yuan revenue mark in 2024, with a strong emphasis on exploring new retail formats [25]. - The report notes that the toy market, particularly in the building block segment, is rapidly growing, with a projected increase in market size from 773.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 993.7 billion yuan by 2028 [32]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for borosilicate glass, with projected net profits growing significantly over the next few years [36][37]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - The report discusses the trading congestion indicators for the technology sector, suggesting that high trading volumes may indicate a risk of price corrections [3]. - Relative valuation metrics show that technology growth stocks are not at historical extremes but are also not particularly cheap, with TMT and robotics sectors at high percentiles [4][5]. Communication Sector - Century Internet's capital expenditure is expected to reach 100-120 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory in the AIDC market [15]. - The demand for AIDC services is anticipated to accelerate, supported by significant contracts from major clients [15]. Consumer Goods Sector - Huayi Group's new factory efficiency is expected to impact Q4 earnings positively, with optimistic projections for Adidas orders [19]. - 361 Degrees is actively exploring new retail formats and anticipates a revenue increase of 19.6% in 2024 [25]. Toy Industry - The report highlights the rapid growth of the building block toy market, with a significant market share held by companies like Bluko, which is leveraging a strong IP portfolio [31][32]. Pharmaceutical Glass Industry - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is expected to see substantial growth in net profits due to the increasing adoption of borosilicate glass in the pharmaceutical sector [36][37].