邮箱： XUBYUN372@pingan.com.cn 2025年4月28日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 受益于"国补政策" ，25Q1中国智能手机 市场出货量正增长 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师： 徐碧云 S1060523070002（证券投资咨询） 行业动态 "国补"叠加春节旺季，推动中国手机市场开年延续同比增长趋势 2020年1月10日 根据IDC报告，2025年第一季度，中国智能手机市场出货量在"国补"政策叠加春节销售旺季的共同推动下，同比增长3.3%，达到7160万 部，延续了过去五个季度的增长趋势，Android市场中更多价位段的产品可以进入到"国补"行列中，因此市场表现相对更好，同比增长 5.3%；iOS市场第一季度同比下降9.0%。 核心摘要 风险提示： 1）供应链风险上升。2）市场需求可能不及预期。3）国产替代不及预期。 行业要闻及简评： 1）根据IDC报告，2025Q1，中国智能手机市场出货量在"国补"政策叠加春节销售旺季的共同推动下 ，同比增长3.3%，达到7160万部，延续了过去五个季度的增长趋势；2）根据IDC报告，2025Q1中国折叠屏手 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo is gaining market share in the US PC market, challenging traditional leaders HP and Dell, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 12.8% compared to HP's 0.6% and Dell's -4.1% [1][4]. Market Performance - In 2024, the US PC market shipped 69.21 million units, a 5.2% increase from 2023 [2]. - Lenovo's shipment volume reached 11.872 million units, increasing its market share from 16.0% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2024 [2][4]. - The gap between Lenovo and HP has narrowed from 10.4 percentage points in 2023 to 8.1 percentage points in 2024 [4]. Growth Drivers - The commercial demand surge is driven by the impending end of Windows 10 support, leading to an early release of enterprise upgrade needs, with a projected 9% growth in the commercial market in the second half of 2024 [2][4]. - Lenovo's comprehensive product range across all price segments has effectively diverted users from HP and Dell [4]. Competitive Landscape - Lenovo's growth rate of 12.8% is 2.5 times the industry average of 5.2% [4]. - The competitive dynamics among leading manufacturers are shifting, with Lenovo's strategic positioning in the commercial sector and flexible supply chain providing a competitive edge [5]. Supply Chain Advantages - Lenovo's supply chain resilience, particularly through its Mexican factory, allows it to capitalize on the USMCA's zero-tariff policy, reducing end-user prices and enhancing competitiveness [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [39] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in a recovery phase, driven by a rebound in consumer electronics, which is expected to initiate a new upward cycle for semiconductors. The report highlights two main investment themes: expansion of wafer fabs and opportunities within the AI industry chain [33] - The top ten global foundries achieved a record revenue of $38.482 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of nearly 10% [4][5] - The global smartphone production from the top six brands reached 335 million units in Q4 2024, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2% [10][11] - The PC market in mainland China showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with a projected growth of 3% in 2025 [16][17] - The Chinese headphone and headset market is expected to see a total sales volume of 218 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [21][22] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with consumer electronics driving a new upward cycle. Recommended stocks include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Dinglong Co. [33] - The top ten foundries' revenue reached $38.482 billion in Q4 2024, with TSMC leading at $26.854 billion, a 14.1% increase from Q3 2024 [6][7] - The semiconductor index has risen 11.27% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.45% [28] Smartphone Market - The top six smartphone brands produced 335 million units in Q4 2024, with Apple leading at 80.1 million units, a 57.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [12][13] - The overall smartphone production for 2024 is projected to be 1.224 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [11][12] PC Market - The PC market in mainland China is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, with a total shipment of 41 million units [16][17] - Q4 2024 saw a 2% year-on-year growth in the PC market, driven by government subsidies and new product launches [17][19] Headphone Market - The Chinese headphone market is projected to reach 218 million units in 2024, with a sales revenue of 42.8 billion yuan, a 9.8% increase year-on-year [21][22] - Over 15 companies launched more than 20 new AI headphone products in 2024, indicating a growing trend in the market [22][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [39]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in a recovery phase, driven by a rebound in consumer electronics, which is expected to initiate a new upward cycle for semiconductors. Key focus areas include the expansion of wafer fabrication plants and opportunities within the AI industry chain [33]. - The top ten global foundries achieved a record revenue of $38.482 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of nearly 10% [4][5]. - The smartphone market saw a significant increase, with the top six brands producing 335 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 9.2% quarter-on-quarter growth [10][11]. - The PC market in mainland China is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, following a rebound in Q4 2024 [16][17]. - The Chinese headphone and headset market is expected to reach 218 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [21][22]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on the expansion of wafer fabrication and AI-related investments. Recommended companies include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Tuojing Technology [33]. - The top ten foundries' revenue reached $38.482 billion in Q4 2024, with TSMC leading at $26.854 billion, a 14.1% increase from the previous quarter [6][7]. Smartphone Market - The top six smartphone brands produced 335 million units in Q4 2024, with Apple leading at 80.1 million units, a 57.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [12][13]. - The overall smartphone production for 2024 is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year, with a modest increase of 1.5% projected for 2025 [11][12]. PC Market - The PC market in mainland China showed signs of recovery, with a 2% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024. The market is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by government subsidies and new product launches [16][17]. Headphone Market - The Chinese headphone market is projected to sell 218 million units in 2024, with a 9.8% increase in sales revenue. The AI headphone segment is rapidly expanding, with over 15 companies launching more than 20 new AI headphone models [21][22].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of AI PC shipments, with 15.4 million units expected in Q4 2024, representing 23% of total PC shipments for the quarter [1] - Apple leads the AI PC market with a 54% share, followed by Lenovo and HP at 12% each, indicating a strong competitive landscape [1] - The impending end of Windows 10 support is driving a replacement cycle, with one-third of channel partners citing it as a key factor for device upgrades in 2025 [3] Market Trends - AI PC shipments are projected to account for 17% of total PC shipments in 2024, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 18% [1] - The commercial deployment of AI PCs is gaining momentum, with manufacturers launching products tailored for enterprise users [2] - The introduction of new product strategies by companies like Intel and Qualcomm aims to capture different market segments, particularly in the mid to high-end range [2] Competitive Landscape - Apple has shown strong performance in the AI PC market, achieving a 10.2% overall market share and 45% in the AI PC segment in Q4 2024 [6] - The shift in Dell's branding strategy reflects a broader industry trend towards simplification and user-centric approaches [5] - The competitive dynamics are influenced by trade policies, particularly U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, which could impact pricing and market demand [3] Product Development - The total shipment of Windows AI PCs grew by 26%, making up 15% of all Windows PC shipments in Q4 2024 [5] - Companies are increasingly integrating AI-driven software into their product lines, enhancing user experience and differentiation [5] - The introduction of Apple's Intelligence features across its devices signifies a trend towards improved personalization and productivity through AI [5]