Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season production in the overseas market is continuously increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger with the opening of the out - of - quota profit window, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.94% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5850 - 5900 with a 25% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) at 30 - 40 with a 50% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5750 - 5800 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can sell put options (SR509P5700) at 10 - 15 with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while the potential decline in Brazil's production in the new season causes price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but with limited rebound strength [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Sales and Inventory in Guangxi**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June, single - month sugar sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Sugar Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - **Brazilian Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - **Coca - Cola and Pepsi - Cola**: Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US and launch new sugar - containing cola products, and Pepsi - Cola may follow suit [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Sugar Production**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast**: Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [8]. - **Thai Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [8]. - **Indian Sugar Production Forecast**: Due to favorable monsoon conditions and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [8]. - **Sugar Imports**: In June, the sugar import volume was 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [8]. 3.5 Price Data - **Sugar Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 397, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 28; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 267, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 3 [9]. - **Sugar Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 0.35%; the closing price of SR09 was 5834, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.45% [9]. - **Sugar Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Kunming sugar was 5920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [10]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482, with a daily decrease of 101 and a weekly increase of 68; the out - of - quota import price was 5693, with a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly increase of 88 [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic demand for sugar is recovering, and the price of sugar futures in China is stronger than that in the international market. With multiple factors at play, the overall sugar price is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 334,160 lots, down 2,993 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,359, down 78; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -2,538 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,583 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,644 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 8.38%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.26%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 2.34472471 million tons of sugar in the first half of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,480.34 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term outlook for sugar is positive due to the formula change of Coca - Cola, but the 25/26 global sugar market is expected to be in surplus. For example, Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus, and USDA forecasts a 1139.7 - million - ton surplus with a 4.7% increase in production and a 1.4% increase in consumption [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market has good consumption and decreasing inventory. The import tariff of syrup has increased since January 2025. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, with a current discount of about 300, and it is expected to oscillate between 5800 - 6000 to complete the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The formula change of Coca - Cola is a long - term positive factor. However, the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 period. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 811.38 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, an increase of 39 million tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a decrease of 10.32 million tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, with a basis of 281 for the 09 contract, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 304.83 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is not clear, showing a negative signal [6]. - **Expectation**: Domestic sugar is about to be cleared from inventory. It is currently the consumption peak season, and the market sales are good. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, and it is expected to oscillate between 5800 - 6000 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 25/26 period, the global sugar production is expected to be 2.02 billion tons (a record - high second), the consumption is 1.98 billion tons, with a surplus of 270 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%, and the global trade volume is 6200 million tons [36]. - **Institutional Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market surplus, such as USDA forecasting a 1139.7 - million - ton surplus, Datagro forecasting a 258 - million - ton surplus, etc. [39]. - **Domestic Data**: The sugar - crop planting area, yield, import, consumption, and price data from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are provided, showing the development trend of the domestic sugar market [41]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The price of white sugar follows the price of raw sugar [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Raw sugar price is 16.36 cents/pound, down 0.43 cents year-on-year; mainstream spot price is 6,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan year-on-year; futures main contract price is 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan year-on-year [1] - 91 spread is 169 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan year-on-year; 15 spread is 54 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year; mainstream spot basis is 221 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan approves the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil is still slow, but MIX has increased significantly year-on-year; monsoon precipitation in India is higher than LPA; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year-on-year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of June in the 24/25 season, China imported 2.51 million tons of sugar (-650,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of July 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year-on-year, cumulative sugar production was 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, sugar production in India was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3] - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of white sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly. The main October contract closed up 0.3% to 16.79 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed up 0.8% to $487.70 per ton. The news that Coca - Cola was called on by the US President to resume using sucrose as a raw material stimulated the sugar price to some extent, but Coca - Cola's response was not positive. The main logic supporting the strength of raw sugar was the poor production data in Brazil. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The 09 contract closed at 5,839 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan or 0.19%, with an increase of 7,069 contracts in positions. The domestic spot prices in the producing areas rose slightly, with the price in Nanning at 6,100 yuan and in Kunming at 5,860 yuan. Zhengzhou sugar followed the rhythm of raw sugar. Fundamentally, the import volume increased in June, and the pressure of processed sugar would increase later. Although the domestic commodity market generally rose recently due to the anti - involution theme, Zhengzhou sugar was basically unaffected [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - **Import Data**: In June 2025, China imported 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (tax - included tariff numbers 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 45.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import was 109.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons. In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [9] - **Production Data**: In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 254.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%; from January to June, it was 1,433 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. In June 2025, China's beverage output was 1,842.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to June, it was 9,308.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [9] - **Shipping Data**: As of the week ending July 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 77, compared with 90 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 309.43 tons (the quantity of high - grade raw sugar was 304.18 tons), compared with 368.55 tons in the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 59.12 tons, a decline of 16.04%. The quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 239.61 tons, and at Paranagua Port was 45.12 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - **Figures**: The report includes figures such as the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading volume and positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [15][18][20] - **Table**: The table shows the trading volume, position changes, and other data of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou sugar futures market [22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The domestic sugar market is affected by multiple factors. Although there is short - term upward momentum due to the positive macro - atmosphere, the 09 contract is expected to decline from a high level later due to factors such as a significant drop in demand, potential continuous import volume increase, and strong industrial hedging forces [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: As of the end of May 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. In the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative crushing volume decreased by 14.06% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 14.25% year - on - year. The impact on price is considered neutral [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price of processed sugar is stable. Yunnan sugar has a cost - performance advantage over processed sugar and has better transactions than Guangxi sugar, but the overall market transaction is average, with a downward impact on price [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, slightly higher than the average of the past five years. As of July 18, the total number of registered sugar warrants decreased compared to last week, with a downward impact on price [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The impact on price is considered neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The quotes of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan have changed slightly, and the quotes of processed sugar factories are stable. The market maintains a demand - based procurement rhythm, with a neutral impact on price [9]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has increased slightly, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat, with a downward impact on price [9]. - **Macro**: There are expectations of China's CPI and PPI bottoming out. The market anticipates an increase in incremental policies, especially as the end - of - year policy - making meetings approach, which may drive the market up, with an upward impact on price [9]. - **Strategy**: Gradually arrange 09 short positions at high prices. Although the domestic market may still have upward momentum in the short - term, the 09 contract is expected to decline from a high level later [9]. 3.2 This Week's Sugar Market News - **Brazil's Production Data**: In the second half of June, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 12.86% year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. From the start of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of June, the cumulative crushing volume decreased by 14.06% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 14.25% year - on - year [14]. - **Sugar Use in Beverages**: Trump claimed that Coca - Cola would use sucrose in its US - market beverages, and Coca - Cola thanked him and promised to share more details. PepsiCo said it would use sucrose if consumers demand it [15]. 3.3 Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: In the 2024 - 2025 period, the domestic sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [20]. - **Domestic Sales**: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the cumulative sales rate was 74.11%. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69% [24][27]. - **Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports**: The report mentions relevant data sources but does not elaborate on specific data [30]. - **Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders**: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [34]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [38]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of July 18, the total number of registered sugar warrants was 21,477, a decrease from last week's 22,850 [43].

Group 1 - Guangxi is a major sugar production area in China, with sugarcane planting area and sugar output ranking first in the country for 34 consecutive seasons [1] - In 2023, Guangxi has allocated over 2.6 billion RMB to promote high-quality development in the sugar industry, focusing on good varieties, good practices, and good fields [1] - The Guangxi Finance Department has allocated nearly 2 billion RMB to support the promotion of good sugarcane varieties and practices, enhancing mechanization levels in sugarcane production [1] Group 2 - Guangxi is implementing a dual guarantee mechanism of "insurance + guarantee" to alleviate financing difficulties for sugarcane growers, with a cumulative guarantee amount exceeding 9.3 billion RMB by May 2025 [2] - The Guangxi Finance Department has revised the management measures for special funds for sugar industry development, establishing a closed-loop management system for fund usage, supervision, and performance [2] - Future efforts will focus on tracking the use of funds related to sugar industry development to ensure efficient financial support and management [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The SR509 contract of sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, and there is support at the price of 5600. In the long - term, the global sugar supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the SR2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range. Follow - up data such as UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Supply - **Brazil Production**: - The 2024/25 Brazilian sugar production was 4017 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to the previous season, with a decline of 5.3%. As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25%. The precipitation in the first half of June was relatively high, affecting the crushing progress. The sugar - to - cane ratio continued to rise, offsetting the impact of the decline in crushing volume and sugar content. The recent precipitation will affect the raw sugar price. The 2025/26 production is expected to increase, with an estimated output of about 4200 tons [44][45][46]. - As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative cane input in the central - southern region was 20619.8 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.00%. The cumulative sugar - to - cane ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25% [53]. - As of July 11, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.38%, and ethanol had an advantage in sales. The ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.78 cents per pound, and the ICE raw sugar settlement price was 16.56 cents per pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.78 cents per pound over the ethanol - converted sugar price, which continued to decline compared to the previous week [68]. - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of July were 136.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.88 tons, a decline of 21.66%. As of the week of July 9, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 368.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.96 tons, an increase of 1.96% [87]. - As of June 30, Brazil's sugar inventory was 401.6657 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years, but the subsequent inventory accumulation pattern was obvious [84]. - **India and Thailand Production**: - India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is estimated to be about 2610 - 2620 tons. The end - of - year inventory is expected to be 520 - 530 tons, ensuring a balance between supply and demand. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, with an estimated output of about 3500 tons [86]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1004.18 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous year. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to continue to increase slightly, with MitrPhol Group estimating 1150 tons and USDA estimating 1026 tons [93]. - **Global Production**: - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season was still in a loose pattern but tightened marginally compared to the previous period. In the 2025/26 season, the supply is expected to turn loose. Some institutions predict a supply surplus, such as Czarnikow predicting a 750 - ton surplus, Datagro predicting a 153 - ton surplus, and Green Pool predicting a 115 - ton surplus [96][97]. Domestic Supply - **Production**: - The 2024/25 domestic sugar - making season ended on May 23. The total sugar production in the season was 1116.21 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.89 tons, an increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152.1 tons, an increase of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [108][113]. - In Guangxi, the 2024/25 sugar production was 646.50 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 tons. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 tons, and the sales rate was 79.51%, 6.29 percentage points higher than the same period last year [113]. - **Import**: - The in - quota import volume is 194.5 tons per year, with a 15% tariff, and the out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, the imported sugar was 42 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 106 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25 tons. From the beginning of the 2024/25 season to the end of June, the cumulative imported sugar was 251 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65 tons. The out - of - quota import profit window opened earlier, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter [128]. - Since 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder has been restricted. In May 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder (tax number 1702.90, 2106.906) was 6.43 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 tons. The import of goods under 170290 remained at a low level, while the import of goods under 2106906 increased significantly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [143]. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: - The peak demand seasons for sugar are the summer cold - drink and ice - cream consumption season and the Spring Festival stocking season. After the Spring Festival, the consumption is in the off - season, but the sugar sales data from February to April were higher than in previous years, mainly due to the transfer of some sugar factory inventories to third - party inventories. As of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.68%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a 6.29 - percentage - point increase in the sales rate compared to the same period last year [150]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 2025, the national industrial inventory was 304.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.21 tons. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the industrial inventory was 132.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 tons [153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market lacks information guidance and will mainly undergo low - level consolidation. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The 24/25 sugar - making season is likely to see a large global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production increases and inventory accumulation in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The downward trend of New York raw sugar has ended, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][35] - The domestic market will experience range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market maintains the expectation of continuous production increase and cost reduction. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has been tightened, and domestic prices will move closer to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [3][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 98.46 (previous value 97.87), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.55 (previous value 5.57) [6] - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $66.03 per barrel, a decrease of 3.96% [6] 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 16.79 cents per pound, an increase of 1.39%. The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 6040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5826 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton compared to last week. The basis of the main contract is basically flat [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 21,477 lots [15] - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of July 15, fund long positions increased by 2480 lots, fund short positions decreased by 2682 lots, and net long positions increased by 5162 lots to - 94,560 lots, with a slight increase in net long positions [15] 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous value was a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [24] - Brazil: As of July 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 206 million tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last year; sugar production was 12.25 million tons, a 14% decrease; alcohol production was 9.43 billion liters, a 15% decrease; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio was 51.02%, compared to 48.69% in the same period last year [24] - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons [24] - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [25] - China's supply - demand data: CAOC expects domestic sugar production of 11.16 million tons, consumption of 15.8 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season; and production of 11.2 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season. Customs data shows that in June 2025, sugar imports were 420,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 2.51 million tons [15][25] - China's production - sales data: As of the end of May, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The national sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69% [15][25] 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Lack information guidance and mainly conduct low - level consolidation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [35] - Domestic market: Conduct range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. Trading is centered around the import rhythm, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [35]