Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a fluctuating rise with a decrease in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3402.32 points, up 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10246.02 points, up 0.83% [1][4][8] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 28 sectors saw gains, with non-bank financials, agriculture, and metals leading the increases, while only telecommunications and pharmaceuticals experienced slight declines [1][4][8] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 12867 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [1][4][8] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 1 point, the S&P 500 down 0.27%, and the Nasdaq down 0.5% [2][4] - The U.S. technology index for the seven major tech companies dropped by 0.89%, with Apple and Facebook seeing declines of nearly 2% and over 1%, respectively [2][4] Key News Highlights - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, where both sides engaged in candid discussions on trade issues and reached a consensus on further cooperation [3][9][10] - The Chinese government emphasized the importance of mutual benefit in the China-U.S. trade relationship, stating that there are no winners in a trade war and expressing a willingness to resolve differences through dialogue [11][12] Economic Data - Recent data from the U.S. showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a moderate inflation environment [19][20] - In the automotive sector, China's vehicle production and sales both achieved double-digit growth in May, with new energy vehicles accounting for nearly half of total sales [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the major financial sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. In the bond market, the short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens, and the trend is relatively strong. In the precious metals market, gold rises due to factors such as lower - than - expected US inflation and Middle - East geopolitical tensions. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, major indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3402.32 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2506 and IH2506 rising 0.89% and 0.79% respectively, and IC2506 and IM2506 rising 0.75% and 0.83% respectively. The large - financial sector strengthened, and the basic metals, insurance, and automobile sectors led the gains, while the daily chemical, port, and pharmaceutical sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: In domestic news, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting made progress. Overseas, the latest US inflation data remained moderate, with the May CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the day was 509 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank market interest rate was slightly affected, and the long - term capital interest rate was slightly higher [5][6]. - **Policy**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting reached a framework consensus. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens. If there are no sudden changes in trade negotiations this week, the treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the capital situation in mid - to - late June. Unilateral strategy: appropriately allocate long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the TS2509 contract's positive arbitrage strategy. For the curve strategy, there is more room to steepen the curve in the medium - term [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation growth was lower than expected, and Trump continued to call on the Fed to cut interest rates. The Middle - East situation heated up, driving up the price of gold. The international gold price rose 0.97% to $3355.005 per ounce, while the international silver price showed a different trend, closing at $36.215 per ounce with a 0.85% increase [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the context of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Currently, trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts disturb the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3200 - $3400 per ounce in the short - term. It is recommended to continuously sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. For silver, pay attention to the flow of speculative funds [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotes**: As of June 11, the spot quotes of major shipping companies showed different ranges. The SCFIS European line index rose 0.5% as of June 2, and the SCFI composite index rose 30.68% as of May 30 [13]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 10, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US showed certain trends in the manufacturing and service sectors [14]. - **Logic**: The futures market fluctuated. The 90 - day tariff freeze period will be extended, which is beneficial to the 08 contract. If shipping companies raise spot prices, the 08 contract may rise. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider buying the main contract on dips, with the price expected to fluctuate between 1900 - 2200 [14]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, but the spot trading weakened due to high prices [15]. - **Macro**: The spread between COMEX and LME widened again, and the US continued to replenish copper stocks, which boosted copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper in May increased. It is expected to decrease slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper showed different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory continued to increase, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic**: The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" makes the copper price fluctuate in the short - term. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, but the spot trading was mediocre [18]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The initial consumption of zinc showed a slight recovery, but the terminal demand was expected to be weak after the peak season [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [22]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock or decline. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 23000 [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The actual trading was light [23]. - **Supply**: The supply recovery progress was slow, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The ban on tin ore transportation in Thailand may affect the domestic supply [23][25]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The solder开工 rate increased slightly in April, but the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Logic**: The slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment drive up the tin price, but the demand is expected to be weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [25]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased slightly, while the average price of imported nickel increased slightly [26]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [26]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, but the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [26]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Logic**: The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the cost support of refined nickel is slightly loose. The medium - term supply is loose, and the short - term market lacks driving force. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 126000 [28]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [29]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore was still tight, the price of nickel iron was weak and stable, and the price of chrome iron was weak [29][30]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to be slightly higher than that in May, and the overall supply is in an oversupply pattern [30]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market is affected by the cost and demand. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still obvious [32]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the demand may face pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased last week, with the upstream and trading inventory increasing and the downstream inventory decreasing [33]. - **Logic**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term market still has pressure. - **Operation Suggestion**: Observe the performance around 62,000 yuan first [34][35]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase, and the basis weakened [36]. - **Supply**: The steel production decreased slightly from the high level, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel decreased, affected by the off - season and tariffs [37]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory was approaching the inflection point of accumulation, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support of steel was weak, and the profit of different steel products varied [39]. - **View**: The steel price rebounded recently, but the overall demand is expected to be weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [40]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased slightly [41]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures price decreased slightly [41]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder was 57 yuan per ton [41]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [41]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [41][42]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [42]. - **View**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - to - long - term is bearish [42]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [43][45]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal mine production decreased slightly, and the Mongolian coal price decline slowed down [45]. - **Demand**: The coking plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand still had some resilience [44][46]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [44][46]. - **View**: The coking coal futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are lagging. Adopt an interval operation strategy [45][46]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly, affected by environmental protection [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline [48]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48]. - **View**: The coke futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are still loose. Adopt an interval operation strategy [48]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The price of ferrosilicon in the main production areas was stable [49]. - **Futures**: The ferrosilicon futures price was stable [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of ferrosilicon was difficult to stabilize, and the profit was negative [49][50]. - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia [50]. - **Demand**: The demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking was expected to decline slightly in June, and the non - steel demand was weak [50]. - **View**: The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon increased, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [50]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The price of manganese silicon in the main production areas was stable [51]. - **Futures**: The manganese silicon futures price decreased slightly [51]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon was relatively high, and the profit was negative [51]. - **Supply**: The production of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure still existed [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking decreased slightly, and the overall demand was relatively stable [53][54]. - **View**: The supply pressure of manganese silicon still exists, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of domestic soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 4200 tons [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The US may have heavy rainfall, which may affect soybean production. Brazil's soybean production and export are expected to be high [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may ease the market sentiment, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious about chasing the rise [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly, with different trends in different regions [58][59]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding varied by scale, and the secondary fattening sales ratio decreased [59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig market supply - demand situation improved slightly, but the demand was weak due to hot weather. The market is expected to fluctuate [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the northeast and north - central regions increased slightly, and the port price also increased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the northern four ports decreased [60][61]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by the supply - demand situation and the wheat price [61]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic sugar price is supported by high sales and low inventory, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62].

Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with both sides achieving a principled consensus on addressing economic concerns and enhancing cooperation [2][3] - China emphasized the mutual benefits of the economic relationship, stating that trade wars yield no winners and expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve differences [2] - The US side reported positive outcomes from the meeting, aiming to stabilize bilateral economic relations and implement the consensus reached [3] Group 2 - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that from January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 10.9% [4] - New energy vehicle production and sales during the same period were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 45.2% and 44%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total new car sales [4] Group 3 - The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and 17 other departments issued measures to support the overseas expansion of the gaming industry, including increased financial support [5] - Companies such as Silver Wheel Co. plan to establish joint ventures to enter the intelligent robot parts market, while Tian Ci Materials intends to build an integrated production base for electrolytes and raw materials in Morocco [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and loose expectations, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in tin prices [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,530 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.69% [1] - The current trading performance in the spot market is relatively quiet, with only a few participants maintaining essential purchases due to strong observation sentiment from downstream [1] Group 2 - Tin ore supply remains tight, which is constraining production at smelting plants, with the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi reaching 53.86% as of last Friday [1] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in Yunnan has continued to decline, with the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate remaining at historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting plants [1] - Some smelting enterprises have already halted production for maintenance, while others are gradually reducing output to cope with the current tight supply of raw materials [1] Group 3 - Thailand has decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting June 4, which is expected to impact the monthly import of tin ore into China by 500-1,000 metal tons [2] - The ban on transportation is likely to exacerbate raw material supply concerns, although market sentiment may experience a short-term boost [2] - The demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors is slowing down, and the high prices are leading to reduced purchasing from downstream, indicating that tin prices may maintain a trend of rebound followed by consolidation [2]

Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead: Not clearly defined [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and provides trading suggestions for each metal based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper gave back its gains and closed lower. Short - term LME copper inventory outflow accelerated, with logistics shifting to the US, and the silver price increase drove the copper price. However, domestic consumption is entering the off - season. Short - term traders should consider stopping losses above 79,500 yuan and pay attention to the fluctuations of US copper [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with the spot premium in East China at 70 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 27,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday, while that of aluminum rods remained unchanged. The aluminum market maintains a low - inventory situation, but demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported consumption. Shanghai aluminum is temporarily oscillating, with resistance at 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum may narrow in the off - season. Alumina has a large supply elasticity after profit recovery, with domestic operating capacity exceeding 90 million tons. The futures are weak due to oversupply, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The Guinea ore price is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi, and it is not advisable to short the futures due to a large discount [3] Zinc - SMM's research shows that smelter output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption is pre - exported and in the traditional off - season, so demand remains weak. The average price of SMM 0 zinc decreased by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and the spot premium to the near - month contract decreased to 50 yuan/ton. The main Shanghai zinc contract fell 1.27%, with the weighted position increasing by 7,878 lots to 285,000 lots and the settled funds reaching 5.567 billion yuan. The short - covering strength slowed down. Considering the support from the smelting cost, short positions opened at high levels should consider taking partial profits around 21,500 yuan/ton, and the overall view is to short on rallies [4] Lead - The price of lead batteries remains high. Under environmental inspections, some secondary lead smelters reduced production, supporting the slow increase of the lead price. The average price of SMM 1 lead increased by 100 yuan to 16,625 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 195 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The refined - scrap spread is 25 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises purchase cautiously, and the spot trading is light. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined significantly, and the market trading was light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, that of imported nickel is 100 yuan, and that of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. Due to continuous rainfall in the Philippines, the loading progress of nickel mines was delayed. The price of NPI stopped falling, but domestic NPI smelters are still in a loss. The inventory of nickel iron increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons. Wait for opportunities to short Shanghai nickel [7] Tin - Shanghai tin turned down in the late trading. The spot tin price is 264,800 yuan, with a spot premium of 990 yuan to the delivery - month contract. The MA60 moving average of domestic and international tin prices is the objective boundary of the price trend. Due to supply factors, the tin price rebounded quickly after the decline. When Shanghai tin rebounds close to the previous level above 265,000 yuan, some short positions should be reduced or rolled over to the far - month contract [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The total market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 57,000 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link increased by 500 tons. The downstream restocking and upstream destocking did not continue, but the sentiment of traders in the intermediate link became more positive, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The latest price of Australian ore is $607.5, and the decline rate slowed down. The mid - stream production increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures slowed down, and the position indicates risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the short - selling momentum weakened. It is advisable to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures increased with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,415 yuan/ton, and the market trading volume declined. On the supply side, the weekly increase is mainly driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang. The production schedules of downstream polysilicon and silicone in June are expected to increase month - on - month, but there may still be a slight inventory build - up in June. The short - term price is driven by technical rebounds and macro - mood fluctuations. It is difficult to determine the end of the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of the M20 moving average. The overall trend is still bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined with a reduction in positions, and the oscillation center continued to move down. After the PV 531 policy node, the short - term distributed demand declined, and centralized projects are mainly in a wait - and - see state. After component enterprises raised prices, it was difficult to follow up with transactions. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in June continued to shrink, while the polysilicon production schedule increased slightly. The inventory pressure of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and leading enterprises have the expectation of lower production costs after capacity replacement. Technically and from the perspective of macro - mood transmission, polysilicon futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, and today they oscillated and declined with a continuous increase in open interest. Since last Friday, copper prices have been rising with increasing positions, driven by the short - term improvement in the macro - atmosphere. At the industrial level, consumption has entered the off - season, social inventory destocking has slowed down, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to narrow. Technically, the short - term futures price faces some pressure at the May high point. One can continuously monitor the long - short game at this position [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices oscillated weakly, with the main futures price breaking below the 20,000 yuan mark and the open interest rising slightly. Recently, the macro - atmosphere has improved. At the industrial level, upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have high profits, resulting in significant hedging pressure on the market, which exerts pressure on aluminum prices. Downstream demand is good, electrolytic aluminum social inventory is continuously destocking, and the monthly spread is oscillating strongly. The casting aluminum alloy was listed today, and short - term arbitrage funds may intervene, putting pressure on aluminum prices. The good macro - atmosphere combined with the strong industrial reality may cause the futures price to oscillate and stabilize. One can focus on the positive monthly spread arbitrage [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices oscillated, with the main futures price narrowly oscillating around 121,500 yuan, and the open interest rising slightly. The improved macro - atmosphere is beneficial to nickel prices. At the industrial level, the upstream ore end is tight, downstream demand is weak, domestic nickel inventory is destocking from a high level, and overseas inventory is continuously rising. Technically, after nickel prices broke below the 122,000 yuan mark, the futures price may run weakly [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - On June 10, Mysteel reported that Sinomine Resource Group stated that due to the rapid expansion of global smelting capacity leading to a shortage of copper concentrates, its Tsumeb plant in Namibia has suspended copper smelting operations. The smelter can process 240,000 tons of copper concentrates annually and previously processed metals from countries such as Chile, Peru, and Bulgaria. In recent years, the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity has exceeded the metal's production. The demand for copper has been boosted by its application in renewable energy technologies including electric vehicles. Sinomine Resource Group plans to upgrade the smelter and explore adding germanium and zinc smelting production lines [9]. Aluminum - On June 10, the casting aluminum alloy futures were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The nearest - month contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 yuan/ton, up 1,035 yuan from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton. In 2024, China's recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc production reached 1.915 million tons, accounting for 24% of the output of ten non - ferrous metals and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 170 million tons. Among them, the recycled aluminum output exceeded 1 million tons, with a carbon emission reduction contribution rate of over 85%. On June 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts [10]. Nickel - On June 10, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,970 yuan/ton; the main premium of Russian nickel was +700 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,270 yuan/ton; the main premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,320 yuan/ton; and the main premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,670 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Group 1 - The core event is the signing of the Indonesia Guangqing Nickel-Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Project by Guangxin Group, marking a significant milestone in deepening cooperation with ASEAN in the industrial chain [1][3] - Guangxin Group is a wholly state-owned enterprise of the Guangdong provincial government, focusing on manufacturing, capital investment, and market-oriented operations, ranking 414th in the Fortune Global 500 in 2024 [1] - The group has increased its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 36%, and ASEAN being a primary market, contributing 54.2 billion yuan, which is 86.3% of its overseas revenue [1][2] Group 2 - The Indonesia Guangqing project, initiated in 2014, is a key Belt and Road Initiative project with a total investment of 1.031 billion USD, generating approximately 35 billion USD in revenue since its inception [2] - Guangxin Group is expanding its manufacturing and supply chain projects in ASEAN, including investments in aluminum, steel, and textile industries across Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia [2] - The new nickel-cobalt project has a total investment of about 2 billion USD, expected to start trial production by the end of 2026, with an anticipated annual profit of 2 billion yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price may rebound in the short - term due to the continuous tight supply of waste batteries, the expanding losses of secondary lead smelters, and the high uncertainty of their production, but the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainties need to be further observed [1] - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the inventory is relatively low, the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase, and the zinc price has broken through the 22,000 yuan/ton mark. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,525.00 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,765.00 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.71%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.43, down 0.79% [1] Supply and Demand - The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the production of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries, limited supply of recyclers, and high reluctance to sell. The demand is weak as it is in the off - season [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 53,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from June 3 and more than 500 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The lead price may rebound in the short - term, but attention should be paid to cost support and macro - uncertainties [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,520.00 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,910.00 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,654.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.32%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.26, down 1.81% [1] Supply and Demand - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. Although the start - up rate of some downstream sectors has rebounded, the overall demand is still weak, and it is expected to decline this week considering environmental inspections [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from June 3 and 2,400 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1]

| | 20250610申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 幅波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic price level in China remains low, with increasing pressure on both exports and imports. The bond market is fundamentally bullish, and long - term bond prices are expected to rise. The stock index futures market should be evenly allocated, and caution is advised when chasing high in the US stock index futures market. [14][20][23] - In the commodity market, the oil and fat market is expected to be volatile, and the cotton market is cautiously optimistic. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term. The double - coke market should be treated as a short - term rebound, and caution is needed when chasing high. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term. For non - ferrous metals, different strategies should be adopted according to different metal varieties. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends, such as low - level volatility in liquefied petroleum gas, weakening of short - term rebound momentum in crude oil, etc. [27][32][39][41][46] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's May export and import data were lower than expected, and inflation data were basically in line with expectations. The central bank conducted 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1738 billion yuan. [12][13][14] - The domestic price level remains low, and the pressure on exports and imports is increasing. The bond market is fundamentally bullish, and it is expected that incremental monetary policies will be introduced in Q3. It is recommended to take a bullish approach. [14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council held a special learning meeting, emphasizing the promotion of the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation through the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued a document to improve people's livelihood. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. [16][17][19] - It is recommended to make a balanced allocation. [20] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Amazon plans to invest an additional $10 billion in Pennsylvania, USA. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. [21][22] - The market is waiting for the progress of China - US trade negotiations. It is not recommended to chase high as the US stock market has not escaped the volatile market. [23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of June 6, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in major regions decreased, while the soybean oil and palm oil inventories increased. The international market is waiting for the US biofuel policy and the MPOB May report. [24][25][27] - It is recommended to wait for the release of the MPOB report data. [28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first quarter of 2025, the import of cotton - made clothing in the US increased significantly. From January to May 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 1%. In May, the national cotton commercial inventory continued to decline. [29][30][31] - The textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the upward movement of the cotton market is restricted. However, considering the possible tight supply in the later period, a cautious and slightly optimistic view is taken. It is necessary to pay attention to China - US trade negotiations and the news of sliding - scale import quotas. [32] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The prices of starch sugar showed mixed trends. It is expected that the substitution between cassava starch and corn starch will enter a bottom - oscillating period, and the开机 rate of starch sugar is expected to increase with the peak - season demand. [33] - CS07 - C07 is expected to remain in low - level oscillation, and CS09 - C09 may be repaired, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences. [33] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat market price showed a weak oscillation, and the corn spot price rose slightly, driving the futures price to rise slightly. [34] - Corn is in a critical period for verifying the balance sheet. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract before the main contract switch, and adopt a bearish approach for new - season contracts after 09. [35] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Pakistan launched an anti - circumvention investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets from China. In May, China's steel exports and automobile exports remained at a high level, but the steel exports showed a marginal decline from late May to June. [36][38][39] - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term. It is recommended to take an oscillating approach in the short term and use spot hedging on rebounds. [39][40] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is under pressure, with overall supply remaining loose. The double - coke market rebounded recently, but the spot market is still weak. The supply side is shrinking. [41] - The double - coke fundamentals have not changed significantly in the short term. It is recommended to treat it as a short - term rebound, pay attention to the changes in industrial products, and be cautious when chasing high. It is advisable to wait and see. [41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of June decreased compared with last year. The US soybean good - rate was in line with expectations. China's soybean imports in May reached a record high, and the oil mill's soybean meal inventory continued to rise. [42][43][45] - It is expected that the futures price will be oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US weather and China - US relations. [46] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Domestic silicon wafer prices declined slightly, mainly due to weak demand and lower prices of downstream terminal batteries. There were many negative rumors in the market, but the fundamentals in June were bearish. The silicon material factory is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons in June. [47][48] - It is recommended to take a short - term bearish and long - term bullish approach, with attention to position management. Pay attention to whether leading enterprises can jointly reduce production to support prices. [49] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project of Xingfa entered the main - structure construction stage. The disk price rose due to rumors but was later refuted. Sichuan entered the wet season, and some silicon factories resumed production. The demand side showed no obvious improvement. [50] - The disk price is close to breaking through the industry's cash cost line. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Dang Sheng Technology successfully developed a high - nickel solid - state single - crystal cathode material. The LME nickel inventory decreased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt increased. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines rose, while that in Indonesia remained stable. [52][53] - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side disk and consider selling put options at low prices. In the medium term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after Q3. [53] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - US lithium - ion battery imports increased by 60% in April. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected, and the inventory accumulation pressure in June was significantly relieved. [54] - It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the central environmental protection inspection team entered Ningxia, delaying the resumption of production of a large - scale recycled lead smelter. The lead ingot inventory in five regions increased. [56][57][58] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the medium term, focusing on the support level around 16,500 yuan. [58] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the zinc ingot inventory in seven regions increased. The zinc price dropped significantly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to be realized. [59][60] - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and pay attention to short - selling option opportunities. In terms of arbitrage, wait and see for the time being, and maintain a long - term positive arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [60] 3.3 Energy and Chemical News and Comments 3.3.1 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some terminals in the US Gulf had shipping difficulties, and the spot price in East China was stable. The supply - side expectation has improved, and the further decline in spot prices may be limited. [61][62][63] - It is expected that the price will remain in low - level oscillation with insufficient upward momentum. [63] 3.3.2 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran rejected the US proposal on the Iran nuclear deal. China's crude oil imports in May decreased month - on - month, and refineries entered the de - stocking stage. [64][65] - The short - term rebound momentum is weakening. [66] 3.3.3 Energy Chemical (PX) - The PX price rose and then declined. The supply - side load increased marginally, and the downstream polyester demand was seasonally weak. In the short term, the price may oscillate and adjust, but in the long term, the profit has the potential to repair. [67][68] - The short - term price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the medium - term profit has the potential to repair. [69] 3.3.4 Energy Chemical (PTA) - There are few future maintenance plans for PTA, and the polyester load is decreasing due to the seasonal off - season. The inventory is still being depleted, and the spot basis is strong but lacks further upward momentum. [70][71] - The short - term price faces upward pressure and is expected to oscillate. In the long term, consider going long at low prices. [71] 3.3.5 Energy Chemical (Caustic Soda) - The liquid caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally. The supply decreased due to some enterprises' maintenance, and the demand weakened. [72][73] - The overall decline of commodities drives the 09 contract of caustic soda down, but the large discount on the 09 disk will limit the downward space. [74] 3.3.6 Energy Chemical (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions. The futures price oscillated upward. [74] - It is expected that the disk will oscillate as the fundamental changes in the pulp market are limited and the macro - economic recovery has temporarily ended. [76] 3.3.7 Energy Chemical (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder spot market was slightly adjusted. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. [77] - It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly as the PVC fundamentals change little and the macro - economic sentiment recovery has ended. [77] 3.3.8 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory increased slightly. The rain in East China affected the demand, but the refinery capacity utilization rate increased, and the overall demand was still stable. [78][79][80] - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate upward. [81] 3.3.9 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot market was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was rational. [82][83] - The urea market is weakly operating recently. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price center may move down. The 09 contract still has some gaming properties. [84] 3.3.10 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The disk price oscillated strongly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be weak. [85] - The styrene market is expected to oscillate recently. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation of pure benzene and the operation of satellite chemical plants and China - US negotiations. [86][87] 3.3.11 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories was mostly stable. The polyester raw material price decreased, and the market transaction was average. An East China polyester bottle - chip device restarted. [88][89][90] - The short - term processing fee is expected to remain at a low level. In June, some large factories have production - reduction plans. It is recommended to go long on the bottle - chip processing fee at low prices. [90] 3.3.12 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased. The spot price was weakly sorted, and the downstream demand was average. [91] - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term as the inventory of soda ash manufacturers and the social inventory are both high, and the cost has decreased. [92] 3.3.13 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The futures price increased slightly, and the fundamentals changed little. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable. [93] - The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will remain stable in the short term. The spot price may decline, and the disk price may be affected by market sentiment. [93]