Core Viewpoint - The potential withdrawal of the United States from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is being evaluated by President Trump, creating significant uncertainty in the ongoing negotiations among the three countries, which cover approximately $2 trillion in trade and services [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The current negotiation landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with bilateral talks taking place, and Mexico being described as "quite pragmatic," while discussions with Canada are more challenging [2][4]. - The mandatory review deadline of July 1 is approaching, which could lead to either a 16-year extension of the agreement or trigger a ten-year annual review mechanism until 2036 if no consensus is reached [4]. - Trump has pressured both Canada and Mexico for concessions beyond trade, including issues related to immigration and national defense, indicating a preference for bilateral agreements [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Any move to exit the agreement could destabilize one of the world's largest trade relationships, potentially leading to the re-establishment of tariff barriers and increased inflationary pressures [2][6]. - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and lawmakers are likely to oppose any withdrawal, as higher tariffs could exacerbate inflation and affordability issues, particularly sensitive ahead of the midterm elections [6]. Group 3: Trump's Negotiation Strategy - Trump's inquiries to advisors about the potential exit reflect his negotiation style, which often uses threats as leverage to secure better deals rather than indicating a definitive intention to withdraw [7]. - Despite previously being a negotiator for the agreement, Trump's views on North American trade relations have shifted, leading to unpredictability in his approach [7].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC forecasts a decline in world oil demand for crude from the OPEC+ producer group by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of this year [1] Group 1 - The anticipated drop in oil demand is attributed to various market dynamics affecting consumption patterns [1] - The forecast indicates a significant adjustment in the oil market, reflecting changing economic conditions and potential impacts on pricing [1] - OPEC's outlook suggests a need for producers to adapt to the evolving demand landscape to maintain market stability [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current situation is an off - season for crude oil demand. Due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories also decreased significantly, leading to a continuous reduction in overall oil product inventories. However, global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. With multiple geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the current cold snap, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm led to an unexpected reduction in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global crude oil floating storage is high, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of Arabian Light crude oil for Asia in March 2025 by 30 cents per barrel. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat have "temporarily" ended, and there are uncertainties in the Iranian geopolitical situation. The U.S. has adjusted tariffs on India, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia - Ukraine - U.S. talks have not made substantial progress on core issues, and the U.S. is seeking a cease - fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.91% to 476.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 471.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 478.8 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1649 to 45913 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the winter storm, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% month - on - month to 8.153 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% month - on - month to 4.31 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Diesel and other oil products rebounded significantly month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% month - on - month [4].

【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期燃料油市场走势仍紧密跟随地缘局势波动。昨日特朗普表示，若美伊谈判无进展，可能向中东增派航母打 击群，此举加剧了美伊关系的不确定性,市场持续计价地缘政治风险。受此影响，今日高低硫燃料油价格均呈 现偏强运行。高疏现货仍显韧性,但现货交投活跃度有所降温,市场结构出现边际软化。后市走向的核心仍在 于地缘局势演变;当前价格已处于风险溢价注入后的相对高位,若冲突升级推动供应中断预期兑现,则价格有 望维持强势;反之,若局势缓和,在中期原料供应趋于宽松的背景下,价格可能转向承压。低硫市场方面,现 货到港量维持充裕。随着春节假期临近,亚洲地区航运需求预计季节性回落。供应端的核心矛盾依然在于海外 炼厂的边际增量,尼日利亚丹格特炼厂RFCG装置回归可能进一步推迟,将继续带来供应压力。 【沥青】 | | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年02月11日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-587 ...

美国正在考虑扣押涉伊朗油轮以施压 。 来源：央视新闻客户端 当地时间2月10日，有消息称， 美国政府官员正考虑扣押运输伊朗石油的油轮，以对伊朗施压，但美方也担心此举可能引发伊朗的报复 行动 。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 据美国官员透露，特朗普政府官员已讨论过是否扣押参与运输伊朗石油的油轮。 今年已有超过20艘运输伊朗石油的船只被美国财政部 制裁，使其成为可能的扣押目标 。 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 编辑丨赵方婷 此外，还有一些美官员说，上述施压手段也面临诸多障碍。若美国采取行动阻止受制裁船只在伊朗装载石油，将挤压伊朗主要收入来 源。伊朗很可能通过扣押运输美国地区盟友石油的油轮，甚至在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷，报复美国。 伊朗的"任一举措都可能大幅推高 油价，使白宫面临政治风暴的风险"。 伊朗和美国6日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行核问题间接谈判。 尽管双方事后均释放出继续谈判的信号，但"战争警报"并未解除。 美国总 统特朗普10日在接受采访时说，他正在考虑派遣第二个航空母舰打击群前往中东，以准备在与伊朗谈判失败时采取军事行动。 ...

Washington is considering seizing additional tankers involved in illegal oil trade. ...

研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 原油现货市场日报 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn | 贸易物流 | 印度海岸警卫队查扣了三艘涉嫌参与石油走私的油轮， 这是该国首次 | | --- | --- | | | 对所谓"暗黑船队"采取强硬措施。 | | 现货成交 | 据知情炼油厂高管透露， 印度巴拉特石油公司和芒格洛尔炼油石化公 | | | 司已购入委内瑞拉梅雷原油， 预计四月到港。 | | 油田管道 | 马来西亚国家石油天然气公司周三发布公告称， 将在"2026马来西亚 | | | 招标轮"中推出九个勘探区块。 | | | 据两位知情人士透露， 两家沙特阿拉伯企业与三家美国企业计划组建 | | | 联合体， 在叙利亚东北部开展油气勘探与能源生产。 | | | 挪威国家能源公司 （Equinor） 国际业务负责人向路透社透露， 该公 | | | 司计划到2030年大幅提升海外油气产量， 其国际油气资产组合将在未 | | | 来几年内恢复增长。 | | | ...

2月初，华盛顿一边在中东继续推进与伊朗的间接接触，谈判地点落在阿曼的消息也陆续被披露，给紧 绷的局势留出一点"喘息缝"。 一旦油更难买，影响会像涟漪一样扩散：先是电网，再是工厂与交通，接着是旅游业的体验与供给稳定 性，最后传导到居民端的生活成本与可获得性。 三、美国在卡谁的脖子：墨西哥与委内瑞拉成了关键节点 要看这份行政令的真实指向，得先看古巴的供油结构。多家报道指向一个事实：2025年墨西哥已成为古 巴最大的原油供应方，委内瑞拉紧随其后，其他来源还包括俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚等。 在委内瑞拉局势骤变、对古巴供给存在不确定性的背景下，美国把"惩罚性关税"这张牌亮出来，本质上 是在逼"沉默的供油者"表态，尤其是让仍在供油的国家承受更直观的对美贸易压力。 另一边，美国在拉美把矛头对准古巴，而且这次不只盯着哈瓦那本身，还把压力顺着供应链甩向第三 国。 一、关税像钳子：把"卖油给古巴"变成高风险生意 1月29日，美国发布一份新的行政令，宣布古巴政府对美国的国家安全与外交构成"特殊威胁"，并以国 家紧急状态为基础，授权对"向古巴出口石油的国家"加征惩罚性关税。政策设计的关键点在于，它瞄准 的不是古巴的进口口岸，而是这些国家进 ...

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth HKD 4.816 billion on February 11, with notable net purchases in Tencent Holdings (HKD 735 million), Zijin Mining International (HKD 191 million), Meituan-W (HKD 162 million), Pop Mart (HKD 144 million), and CNOOC (HKD 122 million) [1] - Significant net sales were observed in Alibaba-W (HKD 520 million), SMIC (HKD 390 million), China Life (HKD 246 million), Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (HKD 159 million), and Xiaomi Group-W (HKD 100 million) [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining International is influenced by fluctuating gold prices, currently hovering above USD 5,050, with expectations of a slight increase in interest rate cuts following disappointing U.S. retail sales data for December 2025 [3] - Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the U.S. considering deploying an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if negotiations with Iran fail, impacting oil price volatility [3] Group 3 - Meituan announced plans to invest approximately USD 717 million to acquire the Chinese "Dingdong Maicai" business from Dingdong Group, which is expected to create synergies with Meituan's existing operations and strengthen its market position in fresh food delivery [3] - The Hong Kong government is positioning the region as a global innovation center for Web3 and cryptocurrency, with the implementation of a licensing system for stablecoin issuers expected to attract new businesses [4] Group 4 - Xiaomi Group is facing increased cost pressures due to rising prices of DRAM and NAND, with speculation that the standard version of its upcoming smartphone may use the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen6 or even the previous generation Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen5 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Russia is seeking clarification from the United States regarding new restrictions imposed on Venezuela's oil business [1] Group 1 - The Kremlin's statement indicates a proactive approach to understanding the implications of U.S. policies on Venezuela's oil sector [1]