Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) announced key management changes effective from November 21, 2025, including the resignation of Mr. Wang Shisan as Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, and the appointment of Ms. Han Yanhong to the same positions [1] Group 1 - Mr. Wang Shisan has resigned due to other work arrangements within Nanshan Aluminum and its subsidiaries [1] - Ms. Han Yanhong has been appointed as the new Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer of the company [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US non - farm data is mixed, the market awaits more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish. The market's bet on further rate cuts in December has declined, the US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable supply and demand characteristics, with inventory reduction. The aluminum market's fundamentals have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The long - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The aluminum market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply. Bearish factors are the reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US non - farm employment data in September was mixed. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The market is waiting for more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of rate cuts in December. The US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased [6][11]. - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months. The State Council is promoting "two - heavy" construction and consumption - promoting policies [6][15]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable production capacity, and the supply is stable. The demand shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals of aluminum have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Shanghai aluminum's trend is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for aluminum: Stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity in December, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply [9]. - Bearish factors for aluminum: Reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, the national aluminum bauxite production was 477.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi is still tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports is ending, and the import volume in December is expected to increase [17][20]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is at a high level but has slightly decreased. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and it is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate at a low level [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio increased. In November, due to environmental protection policies and seasonal consumption weakness, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decline [27]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises increased by 0.4% to 62%. Each downstream sector is in a weak state, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 544,075 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1.38% to 114,899 tons. As of November 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 637,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been fluctuating, and the current inventory level is not high [42][45]. - **Price and Premium**: On November 20, the average price premium of Shanghai Wuma aluminum was stable at - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened to - 31.16 US dollars/ton [49]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased to 60.5% as of November 13, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% [53][57]. - **Unwrought Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period last year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of November 21, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week, and the factory inventory was 57,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week [66]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost of cast aluminum is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price of aluminum alloy is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [67]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The recent trend of Shanghai aluminum is greatly affected by the macro - situation. It is expected that the adjustment will continue, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (02600) has seen a decline of over 5%, currently trading at HKD 10.58 with a transaction volume of HKD 787 million. Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum prices, predicting a drop to USD 2,350 per ton by Q4 2026, with recovery not expected until the early next decade [1][1][1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the aluminum market to shift to oversupply due to new supply, despite demand benefiting from factors similar to copper and substitution effects. However, aluminum will not face the resource constraints that copper does [1][1][1]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the aluminum industry's prospects for next year, forecasting moderate oversupply from new supply in Indonesia by 2026. However, potential supply disruption risks and a slower restart of overseas capacity may lead to tighter market conditions than baseline predictions [1][1][1].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) shares have dropped over 5%, currently trading at 10.58 HKD with a transaction volume of 787 million HKD. Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum prices, predicting a decline to 2350 USD/ton by Q4 2026, with recovery not expected until the early next decade [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the aluminum market to shift to oversupply due to new supply, despite demand being supported by factors similar to copper and substitution effects [1]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the aluminum industry's prospects for next year, forecasting moderate oversupply from new Indonesian supply in 2026, but notes potential supply disruption risks and a slower restart of overseas capacity could tighten market supply beyond baseline predictions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the weak performance of caustic soda futures, with the primary contract experiencing a decline of nearly 1% and trading at 2243.0 yuan, down 0.93% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, with no significant driving forces, and inventory levels are slightly high. The end of the concentrated maintenance season suggests a mid-term increase in both supply and demand, but the overall conflict remains manageable [2]. - Current spot prices for caustic soda are around 2375 yuan, indicating a loose market. The cost of production is estimated to be between 2050 and 2350 yuan, which is a critical support level to monitor [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Pressure - Most production facilities have completed maintenance, leading to a weak price for liquid caustic soda, while liquid chlorine prices remain relatively high. The profit margins for electrolysis units are at lower levels compared to previous years [3]. - The introduction of new production capacities is expected to exert further supply pressure, with a focus on the sustainability of liquid chlorine inventory reduction and downstream demand. Current conditions indicate good demand for liquid chlorine from downstream sectors [3]. - The aluminum oxide industry is facing increased losses, leading to a marginal decline in production and operating capacity, which contributes to high inventory levels. However, there is a lack of substantial reduction in production despite the pressures [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report Core View - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Fed's probability of interest - rate cut expectation is lowered, the aluminum price rises and then falls. The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the inventory is weaker than expected, the absolute value of social inventory is low. The macro - environment is still promising. Overseas, the spot premium of aluminum ingots continues to rise, and there is seasonal restocking in Q4. Domestically, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the output of aluminum rods is increasing. If the social inventory is destocked smoothly, the aluminum price may break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. The current fundamentals have no positive factors, and the price is undervalued, but there may be continuous disturbances in overseas mines [7][8]. Summary by Related Data Aluminum Spot - On November 20, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,570 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,480 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,450 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,620 yuan/ton, closed at 21,530 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,640 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,515 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,843 lots, and the position was 338,582 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 25,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 69,408 tons, with a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,740 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.26%. The highest price was 2,748 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,716 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 266,933 lots, and the position was 411,305 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 20, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Co., Ltd. (Electric Power Investment) has been successfully completed, increasing its market capitalization from 40 billion to 60 billion yuan, marking a significant step in resource integration within the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) [1] Group 1: Restructuring Details - Electric Power Investment announced its restructuring plan on April 30, 2023, and officially disclosed the draft on May 19, 2023, with the final report released on November 14, 2023 [2] - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhu Coal Power Co., Ltd. for 11.149 billion yuan and raise up to 4.5 billion yuan from no more than 35 specific investors [2] - Post-restructuring, the largest shareholder's stake will decrease from 55.77% to 43.24%, while SPIC's Inner Mongolia Energy Co., Ltd. will become the second-largest shareholder with a 22.46% stake [2] Group 2: Financial Impact - Baiyinhu Coal Power's net asset value is assessed at 7.533 billion yuan, with an appraisal value of 10.998 billion yuan, reflecting a 46% increase [3] - Following the transaction, Electric Power Investment's total assets will rise from 54.979 billion yuan to 80.079 billion yuan, while total liabilities will increase from 14.989 billion yuan to 33.318 billion yuan, resulting in a rise in the debt-to-asset ratio from 27.26% to 41.61% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2023, Electric Power Investment reported revenue of 22.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.72%, but a net profit decline of 6.40% [3] Group 3: Performance Commitments - The restructuring includes performance commitments, ensuring that Baiyinhu Coal Power achieves a cumulative net profit of no less than 1.663 billion yuan during the commitment period [4] - If the transaction is completed in 2026, the profit commitments for the aluminum assets are set at 678 million yuan, 528 million yuan, and 526 million yuan for the respective years [4] Group 4: Strategic Advantages - The acquisition is expected to enhance Electric Power Investment's coal production capacity from 48 million tons to 63 million tons, a 31.3% increase [6] - Baiyinhu Coal Power's integration will strengthen the "coal-electricity-aluminum" synergy, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the industry [5][6] - Analysts predict that the acquisition could increase Electric Power Investment's annual net profit by approximately 1.867 billion yuan, representing a potential profit increase of over 30% [7] Group 5: Market Reaction and Valuation - Following the announcement of the asset restructuring, Electric Power Investment's stock price has risen over 62%, adding more than 20 billion yuan to its market capitalization [7] - Current estimates suggest that Electric Power Investment's intrinsic value could reach 94.375 billion yuan, indicating that the market's recognition of the company's value has room for improvement [8]

Core Insights - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported a 0.6% year-on-year increase in global primary aluminum production for October, reaching 6.294 million tons, with a daily average production of 203,000 tons [1] - Excluding China and unreported regions, the primary aluminum production in October was 2.314 million tons, with a daily average of 74,600 tons [1]

其次，大摩还指出，供应面临挑战。在新的供应方面，大摩预计2026年全球产量将达到约140万吨。印 度尼西亚是一个重要的新供应来源国，它拥有铝土矿、煤炭和氧化铝，因此是铝的理想产地。然而，中 国在2021年承诺不会在境外新建任何火力发电设施，以实现碳中和目标。中国企业将需要找到当地的合 作伙伴为其提供电力。电力建设可能需要相当长的时间，即18至24个月。因此，尽管印度尼西亚有大量 铝产能的建设规划，但实际产量却相当缓慢。大摩估计2026年印度尼西亚的新增供应量仅为70万吨。此 外，由于电力问题导致了供应风险，今年全球范围内出现了几次生产中断事件，约70万吨的产能。因 此，大摩预计2026年全球将出现供应短缺。 此外，库存也非常低。目前中国铝的库存仅为60万吨，与过去五年的历史水平相比相对较低。此外，政 府鼓励将熔融铝的比例从目前的约77%提高到2027年的90%，这可能会导致期货市场上可交付的铝锭减 少，从而支撑铝价。 首先，大摩表示，中国铝的需求将因ESS及其他消费电子产品而实现显著增长：随着ESS的增长速度大 幅加快，其使用的铝量也在增加。6月份，ESS在中国整体电池装机量中的占比仅为25%，但此后已增 长 ...