Group 1: Macro Insights - The report identifies resilient export products under tariff impacts, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power in the long term, leading to a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [2] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade, and high-dependency products showing weak overseas substitution effects [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to be minimally affected by the recent Middle East tensions, as historical data shows limited impact during such events [3] - The report notes that the share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade is low, indicating a weak direct impact on the domestic economy [3] Group 3: Financial Sector Analysis - The report discusses the weak demand affecting credit expansion, with May's financial data showing a year-on-year decrease in credit growth, although government bond issuance supports social financing growth at a stable rate of 8.7% [8] - M1 growth rebounded due to a low base, while M2 growth remains stable [8] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand and rising storage prices are expected to boost the semiconductor sector, particularly benefiting companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor due to domestic substitution trends [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance in non-volatile storage and FPGA sectors [9] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The report indicates that the transaction area of new homes in 30 core cities remained stable year-on-year, with average prices increasing by 5.6% [10] - Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai show significant price increases, suggesting a stabilization in high-tier cities [10] Group 6: Agricultural Sector - The report highlights a potential recovery in pig prices as inventory levels decrease, with policies driving the industry towards destocking [12] - Long-term profitability is anticipated post-destocking, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Zhengbang Technology [12] Group 7: Energy Sector - The report notes that seasonal demand for electricity is expected to support stable coal prices, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua [13] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also discussed, with rising oil prices observed [14] Group 8: Non-Banking Financial Services - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, predicting net profits of 101 million, 112 million, and 123 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The company is expected to benefit from a competitive landscape in the payment sector [15] Group 9: Telecommunications Sector - The report projects significant growth for Shengyi Technology, driven by AI-related demand, with net profit forecasts of 2.628 billion and 3.280 billion yuan for 2025-2026 [16] - The long-term growth potential of the company is highlighted [16] Group 10: Retail Sector - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating profit margins for Chow Tai Fook, with a forecasted recovery in net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 [17] - The company's transformation strategy is showing positive results, with expectations of increased consumer demand for gold jewelry [17]

Core Insights - The petroleum coke production in Fujian Province for March 2025 was 39,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.5% [1] - The growth rate for March 2025 was 24.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total petroleum coke production for the first quarter of 2025 was 123,000 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0% [4] - The growth rate for the first quarter was 16.3 percentage points lower than the previous year, but 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average [4] Production Statistics - March 2025 petroleum coke production: 39,000 tons, down 12.5% year-on-year [1] - First quarter 2025 petroleum coke production: 123,000 tons, down 4.0% year-on-year [4] - Fujian's share of national petroleum coke production in March 2025 was 1.4%, while the first quarter share was 1.5% [1][4] - National petroleum coke production for March 2025 was 2.741 million tons, and for the first quarter, it was 8.063 million tons [1][4]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 中东地缘政治冲突升级，本周油价大涨 本周中东地缘风险加剧，以色列于 6 月 13 日发动对伊朗的打击，袭击了伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事 设施相关的目标，造成了伊朗 6 名高级别核科学家、 3 名高级军事指挥官死亡；伊朗对以色列实施报复，发射 弹道导弹打击以色列军事中心、空军基地等目标。截至 6 月 14 日，双方军事行动仍在持续，中东地区地缘政 治风险全面升级，油价大涨。截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，布伦特、 WTI 原油分别报收 75.18 、 73.18 美元 / 桶， 较上周末分别上涨 12.8% 、 13.0% 。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】中东局势动荡对资产价格有何影响？——策略周专题（2025年6月第2期） 以色列对伊朗发动打击事件对于A股以及港股整体而言影响或许也不会很大。一方面，历史来看，中东局势紧 张时A股及港股所受影响均较小。另一方面，中东地区在我国的进出口份额中占比也较低，冲突本身对于国内 经济的影响较弱。行业层面，短期或可"以静制动"，继续关注原有主线，中长期则需观察冲突的持续性。若冲 突持续时间短，可更多关注成长，反之则关注资源品、交运及红利板块等。 （张宇生/王国兴） 2025-06-15 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查 看 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【石油化工】坚守长期主义之十：地缘政治风险再起，"三桶油"及油服战略价值 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：跟随原油偏强，淡季裂解收窄 ◆ 我们的逻辑：过去一周，BU跟随大幅上行，但在油品板块中涨势居弱。根据隆众资讯，本周期国内沥青均价为3697元/ 吨，环比上周期上涨35元/吨。周内中石化部分地区主营价格继续推涨，其中山东主营周内累计上涨80元/吨，华东主营 炼厂周内涨20元/吨，华南主营炼厂周内上涨20-80元/吨，但价格上涨后实际成交表现一般，近期高价有所承压；虽然 周内国际原油大幅上涨，但现货基本偏稳运行，下游多刚需采购，高价需求乏力。北方地区沥青现货资源有所支撑，考 虑部分炼厂库存低位以及限量等因素支撑，市场价格仍 ...

2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业研究 坚守长期主义之十：地缘政治风险再起，"三桶油"及油服战略价值凸显 市场担忧伊核协议谈判中断、原油运输风险，油价有望持续上行。本轮伊以 冲突对原油市场的影响包括：（1）伊核谈判前景不明，对伊朗石油生产销售 的制裁可能加剧。本次以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，伊朗一度宣布退出伊核谈判， 伊以冲突加剧了伊核谈判前景的不确定性。2025 年 1-4 月，伊朗原油产量约 为 330 万桶/日，伊核谈判失败可能使美国对伊朗原油生产制裁加剧，在上一 轮制裁周期内，2019 年全年伊朗的原油产量为 236 万桶/日。（2）地缘冲突 加剧导致原油运输风险加剧。2023H1，霍尔木兹海峡原油流量约为 2050 万 桶/日，占全球海运原油总量的 27%，地缘政治冲突使得全球原油运输风险上 升。当前原油供需面临一定压力，但本轮地缘政治冲突有望使原油供需担忧得 到缓解，地缘风险溢价的整体上升有望在一段时间内持续推高油价。 "三桶油"及油服以自身发展确定性应对外部不确定性，战略价值凸显。2025 年以来地缘政治局势不确定性较强，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶 油"将继续维持高资本开支，大力推进"增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the kerosene production in Yunnan Province has shown a growth trend, but the growth rate has slowed down compared to the previous year [1][2]. - In March 2025, the kerosene production reached 123,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but this growth rate is 4.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025 (January to March), the total kerosene production was 385,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is significantly lower by 26.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2 - The growth rate of Yunnan's kerosene production in March 2025 is 3.4 percentage points higher than the national average, which indicates a relatively better performance within the province [1]. - The kerosene production in Yunnan accounts for approximately 2.5% of the national kerosene production of 4,898,000 tons in March 2025 [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Yunnan's kerosene production represented about 2.8% of the national total of 13,989,000 tons [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the chemical industry, with a focus on price increases for specific products and potential investment opportunities in companies like Kangkuan and nitrated cotton [1][2]. Core Insights - The chemical market is experiencing price increases, with notable price adjustments for products such as chlorantraniliprole and Bacillus thuringiensis, indicating a favorable pricing environment [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, have led to increased oil prices, which in turn affects the chemical sector positively by raising the prices of related products like methanol and strontium carbonate [2][3]. - The report highlights significant events impacting the industry, including the launch of a new production facility by China Pingmei Shenma Group, which could alter the competitive landscape in the nylon industry [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The basic chemical index fell by 0.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24% this week, with strong performances from specific stocks [1][11]. - Brent crude oil averaged $69.45 per barrel, up 6.22% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil averaged $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11]. Key Events - The report notes the successful negotiation of a major potassium fertilizer contract at $346 per ton, indicating a positive outlook for the potassium fertilizer market [1]. - The establishment of a new 100,000 tons/year production facility by China Pingmei Shenma Group marks a significant development in the nylon supply chain [3]. Price Movements - The report tracks price changes for various chemical products, with significant increases noted in sectors such as textile chemical products and compound fertilizers [11][12]. - The report indicates that the prices of methanol and strontium carbonate are gaining attention due to their correlation with rising oil prices [2][11]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in domestic and international demand for chemicals, particularly in the tire and rubber sectors, which are seeing a resurgence in production rates [27][28]. - The AI industry is also highlighted, with significant investments being made, indicating a broader trend of technological integration within the chemical sector [4].

Core Insights - In March 2025, the petroleum coke production in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region reached 156,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.2% and an acceleration of 88.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the total petroleum coke production was 458,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% and an increase of 26.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Production Statistics - March 2025 petroleum coke production: 156,000 tons, accounting for 5.7% of the national production of 2,741,000 tons [1] - January to March 2025 cumulative petroleum coke production: 458,000 tons, also representing 5.7% of the national total of 8,063,000 tons [1]

摘要：【图】2025年1-3月吉林省煤油产量统计分析 2025年3月煤油产量统计： 煤油产量：3.2 万吨 同比增长：-19.7% 增速较上一年同期变化：低19.5个百分点 据统计，2025年3月吉林省规模以上工业企业煤油产量与上年同期相比下降了19.7%，达3.2万吨，增速 较上一年同期低19.5个百分点，增速较同期全国低18.4个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业煤油产量 489.8万吨的比重为0.7%。 详见下图： 2025年1-3月煤油产量统计： 煤油产量：12.2 万吨 同比增长：6.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：低3.2个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，吉林省规模以上工业企业煤油产量与上年同期相比增长了6.3%，达12.2万吨， 增速较上一年同期低3.2个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高7.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上 企业煤油产量1398.9万吨的比重为0.9%。详见下图： 图2：吉林省煤油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：吉林省煤油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油 ...