当地时间周三， 美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics，BLS）表示，将不会发布10月非农就 业报告，而是把相关的就业数据纳入11月报告。 11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，比原计划晚了一个多星期，并且是在美联储今年最后一次会议 之后公布。 9月非农就业报告将于本周四发布。 美国非农就业报告由两项调查组成，一项面向家庭，另一项面向企业机构，后者用来统计非农就业人 数。 由于美国创纪录的政府关门，BLS无法收集10月的住户调查数据——这些数据用于计算包括失业率在内 的关键指标 。BLS表示， 这些数据无法事后补采 。BLS还表示， 将延长11月家庭调查和机构调查的收 集周期。 经济学家此前就指出，由于数据收集方式极为依赖人工，家庭调查数据存在被跳过的风险，但他们仍预 期10月的非农就业数据会如期发布。白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特上周曾表示，10月就业报告将不会 包含失业率。 虽然许多企业保存记录并以电子方式报告薪酬数据，但要事后通过电话联系居民、并让受访者回忆10月 某一周的就业状况，难度要大得多。家庭调查由BLS与人口普查局联合进行，每月调查约6万户家庭。 BLS还将跳过发 ...

Group 1 - Multiple foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley and UBS, express confidence in the future development of China's economy and capital markets, maintaining an overweight position on Chinese stocks and raising the target for the Chinese stock index [1][2] - Positive factors supporting the Chinese stock market are expected to continue into next year, with foreign capital anticipated to keep flowing in, particularly into sectors like AI, technology, overseas expansion, and "anti-involution" [1][2] Group 2 - China's economy is projected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, resilient exports, and a gradual recovery in consumption and public service spending [2][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting annual export growth of 5% to 6% in the coming years, while the drag from the real estate sector is expected to diminish [2][3] Group 3 - The focus of the stock market is shifting towards substantial improvements in corporate profitability, with UBS predicting another "bumper year" for the Chinese stock market in 2026 [3][4] - Factors such as the development of innovation sectors, support for private enterprises, and continued fiscal expansion are expected to sustain the market, although significant valuation increases are not anticipated [3][4] Group 4 - Foreign capital has been consistently flowing into the Chinese stock market, with $50.6 billion entering in the first ten months of this year, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [5] - Institutional investors are increasingly confident in China's capabilities in AI, technology, and high-end manufacturing, with many indicating plans to increase their allocation to Chinese stocks in the coming months [5]

关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《高盛：2026年全球市场展望（美联储降息+AI+中国出口）》 1. 宏观环境 2025年末，投资者的关注点集中在美国政府关门带来的数据缺失，以及美联储的降息预期上。高盛的基本判断是，美联储会在不出现衰退的情况下温和降 息，政府开支恢复、关税压力减轻、财政政策转向宽松，为2026年初的全球增长带来支撑。历史上，美联储只要是在经济未衰退时降息，标普500往往继续 上涨。但目前的市场估值已反映了较多宽松和增长预期，导致信用和资产负债表的薄弱环节逐渐显现，股市虽有上涨空间，但波动也同步加大。 2. 就业压力与降息节奏 近期美国就业市场的不确定性是短期内的最大变量。政府关门期间，官方失业率数据曾经中断，高盛自己追踪了Challenger, Gray & Christmas、美国劳工 部、JOLTS裁员率、WARN通知和财报会议中的裁员信息，结果显示裁员确实在上升，但并不是急剧恶化。如果接下来几个月失业率快速攀升，市场 对"Sahm规则"触发的担忧会升温，原本预计明年3月的30个基点降息会提前、加码。反之，如果就业只是在慢慢降温，这一阶段的风险窗口会逐步消除，风 险 ...

高盛CEO认为，技术面目前更倾向于保护性操作和更多下跌空间，市场可能会进一步回调。标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月 度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指标。 全球股市经历1.6万亿美元抛售潮后，华尔街顶级投资机构对后市走向出现明显分歧，高盛CEO警告市场可能进一步下跌，巴克莱前CEO则认为这只是 健康调整而非熊市前兆。 当地时间周三，高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron在新加坡表示 ，"我觉得市场可能会从目前位置进一步回调"，并指出技术面更倾向于保护性操作 和更多下跌空间。 相比之下，前巴克莱CEO Bob Diamond对市场前景相对乐观。他表示："我们看到风险资产被重新定价。在我看来，这是一次健康的调整，不是正在转 向熊市的征象。" 标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指 标。 高盛警告技术面偏空 Goldman Sachs总裁Waldron在接受采访时表示，当前市场的技术面更倾向于保护性操作和下行风险。他认为今年市场已有相当涨幅 ...

全球股市经历1.6万亿美元抛售潮后，华尔街顶级投资机构对后市走向出现明显分歧，高盛CEO警告市场可能进一步下跌，巴克莱前CEO则认为这只是健康 调整而非熊市前兆。 当地时间周三，高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron在新加坡表示，"我觉得市场可能会从目前位置进一步回调"，并指出技术面更倾向于保护性操作和更多 下跌空间。 相比之下，前巴克莱CEO Bob Diamond对市场前景相对乐观。他表示："我们看到风险资产被重新定价。在我看来，这是一次健康的调整，不是正在转向熊 市的征象。" 标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指标。 高盛警告技术面偏空 Goldman Sachs总裁Waldron在接受采访时表示，当前市场的技术面更倾向于保护性操作和下行风险。他认为今年市场已有相当涨幅，当前的回调"是健康 的"。 Waldron特别关注AI投资回报率问题："市场现在严重关注这种AI动态：我们是否会从市场预期的资本投资中获得回报，这是否已被计价？这是一个重大争 论。"他预计进一步的市场下跌将是温和的，"我不认为会比 ...

高盛总裁沃尔德伦表示，市场已经为可能出现的进一步下跌做好准备，而投资者将密切关注即将公布的 科技龙头英伟达的关键财报。 沃尔德伦周三在新加坡举行的彭博新经济论坛期间接受采访时表示："在我看来，市场从当前位置再往 下回调一点是完全可能的。我确实认为，从技术面来看，目前的倾向更多是增加保护，更偏向于防范下 行风险。" 标普500指数本月迄今已下跌逾3%，正走向自3月以来表现最差的一个月，同时市场波动性飙升。全球 最大一批科技公司的抛售，再次点燃了围绕人工智能的争论：眼下的业务收入和利润，是否足以支撑在 相关基础设施上巨额投入的合理性。 他在接受采访时表示："你现在看到的是市场出现了一波回调，我觉得这其实是健康的，毕竟今年以来 市场已经涨了不少。市场现在高度聚焦在这一轮AI行情上：我们能否拿到与投入资本相匹配的回报？ 这些预期是否已经完全反映在价格里？这是一场很大的争论。" "我们已经看到风险资产被重新定价。"曾任巴克莱银行集团首席执行官、现管理投资公司Atlas Merchant Capital的戴蒙德表示，"在我看来，这是一轮健康的调整，而不是正在演变成一轮熊市。" 戴蒙德同时表示，由财政支出推高的主权债务规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, predicting a strong performance for Chinese stocks by 2026, driven by various favorable factors including innovation and supportive policies [4][6][12]. Group 1: Foreign Institutions' Predictions - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index will reach 100 points by the end of 2026, representing a potential increase of approximately 14% from the current level [6]. - The Hang Seng Index target is set at 30,000 points, indicating a potential rise of about 12.9% [6]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market, with year-end targets of 27,500 points for the Hang Seng Index and 4,840 points for the CSI 300 Index, reflecting increases of around 6% and 5.9% respectively [12]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Conditions - Key drivers for the Chinese stock market in 2026 include: 1. Innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), where China offers significant investment opportunities outside the U.S. [6][10]. 2. Continued supportive policies for enterprises and capital markets [7]. 3. Ample liquidity due to ongoing fiscal expansion and a loose monetary policy environment, with expectations of interest rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China [7]. 4. Potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors [7]. Group 3: Earnings and Valuation Outlook - UBS projects a 5% revenue growth and a 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth for MSCI China Index constituents in 2026 [9]. - The report indicates a 4% expected valuation increase, driven by inflows from domestic institutions, retail investors seeking higher returns in a low-interest environment, and foreign investors looking for diversified and relatively cheap assets [9]. - Morgan Stanley expects a 6% profit growth for Chinese companies in 2026, potentially rising to 10% by 2027, supported by trade benefits and anticipated interest rate cuts [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are on high alert regarding the unexpectedly weak demand for Japan's 20-year and 40-year government bond auctions, particularly ahead of the new government's economic stimulus plan under Prime Minister Kishi Sanae [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds rose to 2.815%, marking the highest level since 1999, driven by concerns over increased fiscal spending plans that may significantly boost inflation and exacerbate Japan's already heavy debt burden [1] - The 40-year bond yield surged by 8 basis points to its highest level since its public market debut in 2007, indicating heightened market volatility [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the previous 20-year bond auction was 3.56, compared to a 12-month average of 3.30, suggesting potential weakness in upcoming auctions [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - A faction within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is urging the government to prepare a substantial budget of approximately 25 trillion yen (about 161 billion USD) to support the forthcoming stimulus plan [4] - Recent data showed a contraction in Japan's GDP for the last quarter, providing justification for the government's push for significant fiscal expansion [4] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as investors grow increasingly wary of the potential scale of stimulus exceeding market expectations, Japan's fiscal risk premium is returning, which could exert significant selling pressure on long-term sovereign bonds and the yen [4] Group 3: Global Market Implications - Amundi's recent report indicated that due to concerns over increased borrowing by the new Prime Minister, yields on long-term Japanese government bonds may reach new historical highs in the coming months [5] - The potential for a "Japanese bond sell-off storm" could re-emerge, reminiscent of past market disruptions, if long-term bond yields rise sharply [5] - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations for a revival of "Abenomics," characterized by stronger fiscal stimulus, industry support, and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, predicting a significant rise in Chinese stocks by 2026, driven by various favorable factors including innovation and easing trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: UBS Insights - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index will reach 100 points by the end of 2026, representing a potential increase of approximately 14% from the current level [2]. - The Hang Seng Index target is set at 30,000 points, indicating a potential rise of about 12.9% [2]. - Key supportive factors for the Chinese market include: 1. Innovation, particularly in AI, where China offers extensive investment opportunities outside the U.S. [2]. 2. Continued supportive policies for enterprises and capital markets [2]. 3. Ample liquidity due to ongoing fiscal expansion and a loose monetary policy environment, with expectations of interest rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China [2]. 4. Potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The focus for 2026 will shift towards substantial improvements in corporate profitability, with UBS emphasizing that profit growth will drive market increases rather than valuation recovery [3]. - UBS anticipates a 5% revenue growth and a 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth for MSCI China Index constituents in 2026 [3]. - A 4% valuation uplift is expected, primarily from inflows of domestic institutional investors, retail investors seeking higher returns in a low-interest environment, and foreign institutional investors looking for diversification [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - UBS highlights the technology and internet sectors as promising areas for investment in 2026, noting that China provides diverse investment opportunities outside the U.S. [4]. - Chinese AI stocks are seen as undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, presenting an attractive investment opportunity [4]. Group 4: Morgan Stanley's Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market in 2026, with year-end targets of 27,500 points for the Hang Seng Index and 4,840 points for the CSI 300 Index, reflecting increases of about 6% and 5.9% respectively [5]. - The firm expects a 6% profit growth for Chinese companies in 2026, potentially rising to 10% by 2027, supported by trade benefits and anticipated interest rate cuts [5]. - The MSCI China Index's expected price-to-earnings ratio will remain stable at 12 to 13 times, aligning with current levels [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of stock selection, recommending an overweight position in high-quality internet and technology stocks while reducing exposure to real estate, consumer staples, and energy sectors [6].

今年迄今金价已上涨55%，主要受经济与地缘政治担忧、黄金ETF资金流入增加以及对美国进一步降息 的预期推动。（国际财闻汇） 高盛周一表示，各国央行在11月可能继续大量购金，这延续了近年来为分散外汇储备、对冲地缘政治与 金融风险的长期趋势。 高盛预计，9月份央行购金量为64吨，高于8月份的21吨。到2026年底，金价将升至4900美元；如果私人 投资者继续分散投资组合，金价可能会进一步上涨。 ...