1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - **Lead**: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].

近期受资源端扰动及反内卷政策预期影响，碳酸锂呈现强劲反弹态势，周五早盘，碳酸锂主力合约高开 高走，日内涨幅超6%，逼近8万关口。资源端扰动频发推动价格走高 7月7日，宜春自然资源局下发文件，指出当地8座矿山存在越权办理登记手续的问题，要求9月30日前补 报矿种变更储量核实报告待专家评审。其中一座矿山的采矿证将于8月上旬到期，市场担忧在补充材料 的窗口期内面临暂时停产的风险。 7月17日，上市公司藏格矿业旗下的藏格锂业收到政府通知要求停产。公司正推进开采手续办理，待完 成后申请复产。该公司2025年计划碳酸锂产销量1.1万吨，上半年预计产5350吨、销4470吨，此次停产 预计影响月供应900-1000吨。 7月17日，力拓2025Q2的生产报告正式公布了Mt Cattlin锂矿停产的消息。 7月18日，市场传闻九岭锂业暂停销售碳酸锂，持续3个月。 7月21日，江特电机子公司宜春银锂新能源有限责任公司将于7月25日停产检修26天。 江西、青海相继出现锂矿审批问题，叠加国家层面推进反内卷工作，市场担忧锂矿审批趋严。正信期货 表示，江西锂矿审批系历史遗留问题，相关矿山的采矿证能否顺利续期，目前尚无明确结论，最早可能 ...

中信证券认为，"反内卷"政策强度不断升级，有望成为持续投资主线。长期看，"反内卷"需要全国统一 大市场建设，优化绩效考核机制，让中国企业实现高质量产能出海。短期看，当前"反内卷"落地政策尚 未全面出台，整体仍处于交易预期阶段，持仓相对出清的低位周期制造品种有望成为交易主线。 开源证券认为，"反内卷"行情持续发酵存在三大原因：1、"反内卷"政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。2、"反内卷"行业筹码干净，存在较 强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的"反内卷"行业，基金配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比 例，筹码出清干净。3、当前市场风险偏好高位，对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力 增强、投资者活跃度提升，以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动A股走强的核心动因。以上三点 构成了"反内卷"的三大优势，也解释了近期"反内卷"行情能持续发酵的原因。 东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场全天震荡走高，三大指数再度创出年内新高，上证指数收盘站上3600 点。盘面上，海南自贸区、稀土永磁、锂矿、超级水电等板块涨幅居前，贵金属、银行等板块跌幅居 前。市场的强势程度可见一 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3605.73 points, up 0.65% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both increased by over 1%, reaching new highs for the year [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 18,742 billion yuan, a decrease of 245 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Hainan Free Trade Zone - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept saw a strong surge, with the overall sector rising by 9.59% and 29 constituent stocks all increasing, including 21 hitting the daily limit [2] - Key stocks such as Kangzhi Pharmaceutical and Hainan Airport reached their daily limit [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the full island customs closure for Hainan is set to officially start on December 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the free trade port [2][3] Energy Metals and Rare Earths - The energy metals and rare earth sectors led the market, with lithium and rare earth concepts showing significant activity [4] - Lithium stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tibet Mining saw substantial gains, with lithium futures prices reaching a new high of 77,000 yuan/ton, up over 30% since late June [4][5] - The rare earth sector also performed well, with companies like Longmag Technology and Baotou Steel hitting their daily limit, driven by improving domestic demand and limited supply growth [5] Film and Entertainment Sector - The film and entertainment sector experienced a notable increase, with the overall index rising by 3.06% [6] - Key stocks such as Happiness Blue Ocean and China Film saw significant gains, supported by local government initiatives to distribute movie vouchers [6] - The summer box office for 2025 has already surpassed 4.4 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend for the industry [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, with the de - stocking process progressing slowly, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance remaining unmitigated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase". The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentratedly released. - There are multiple factors affecting the price of lithium carbonate. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the market trading the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future production expectations of lithium mines, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and the LC2511 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 69,380 yuan/ton to 76,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.52% and a weekly increase of 12.83%. The trading volume of the LC2511 contract increased from 241,623 lots to 313,782 lots, a daily increase of 29.86% and a weekly increase of 235.73% [8]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The month - to - month spreads of LC08 - 11, LC09 - 11, and LC11 - 12 all changed. For example, the LC09 - 11 spread increased from 760 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 121% and a weekly increase of 115% [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li₂O:2 - 2.5% increased by 50 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.12%, and a weekly increase of 12.97% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Quotes**: The average daily quotes of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 63,350 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 8.76% [17]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price all changed. For example, the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% and a weekly increase of 3.13% [20]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average daily quotes of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also changed. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 32,665 yuan/ton to 32,690 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.08% [22]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, remained stable. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy's battery - grade lithium carbonate for the LC2507 contract was 100 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants increased from 10,754 lots to 11,654 lots, an increase of 900 lots. Some warehouses saw changes in warrant quantities, such as a 300 - lot increase in Suining Tiancheng and a 20 - lot decrease in Wugang Wuxi [29]. 4. Cost and Profit - There are graphs showing the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trading logic involves the spread of anti - involution across all commodities, the shift from deflation to inflation expectations in the macro - economy, and the narrative of commodities exiting the low - price cycle. Whether prices continue to follow the macro - logic or return to industrial reality depends on inflation transmission in the industry chain and terminal consumption capacity [4][14]. - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to the expectation of anti - involution spreading upstream and the bet on Jiangxi mine shutdowns. Attention should be paid to potential "expectation gaps" [5][36]. - Speculative demand - driven price fluctuations in the commodity market show a "spring effect", including three stages: macro - narrative igniting speculative enthusiasm, supply elasticity lag leading to over - price increase, and expectation falsification with a stampede - style decline [17]. Summary by Directory First Part: Preface Summary Trading Logic - The current trading logic includes the spread of anti - involution, the shift from deflation to inflation expectations, and the end of the low - price cycle for commodities. After price increases, whether to continue the macro - logic or return to industrial reality depends on inflation transmission and terminal consumption [4][14]. Market Outlook - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to anti - involution expectations and bets on mine shutdowns. If mines are shut down without a license, prices can rise; if the mine risk is removed, the over - supply problem may worsen, and prices may hit new lows [5]. Strategy Recommendation - For unilateral trading, follow the trend in the short term as there are no signs of a trend reversal. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell put options [6]. Second Part: Review of Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate main contract 2509 has risen 27% from the lowest 58400 to the highest 74680. After reaching around 65,000, the upward movement was driven by the strong expectations of the market, with 100,000 more lots added in 7 days from July 14, and a gain of over 15% [11]. Third Part: Speculative Demand Driving Price Fluctuations First Stage: Macro - Narrative Igniting Speculative Enthusiasm - Speculative demand is initiated by macro - factors such as policy changes and geopolitical events. Speculators hoard goods based on the expectation of future supply shortages, leading to a situation where speculative demand far exceeds actual consumption demand. Prices rise sharply, and the spot premium structure expands, driving futures - cash arbitrage. Technical signals show a strong upward trend [18][22]. Second Stage: Supply Elasticity Lag Leading to Over - Price Increase - The price increase is not based on real supply - demand improvement. At high prices, there are structural contradictions, with actual consumption demand being suppressed. New production capacity is gradually released, but speculators still hold positions based on macro - narratives. Any "expectation gap" may lead to a trend reversal [23]. Third Stage: Expectation Falsification with a Stampede - Style Decline - The end of speculative demand is due to factors such as policy falsification or speculative capital profit - taking. When the market sentiment reverses and the supply peak arrives, there will be a stampede - style decline [24]. Lithium Carbonate's Current Stage - Lithium carbonate is in the initial stage of the first and second phases, and it is necessary to observe when the third stage starts. The proportion change of the hoarding group can be used to judge the stage. High - price consumption suppression is affected by multiple factors [25][26]. Fourth Part: Impact of Anti - Involution on Lithium's Upstream and Downstream Anti - Involution Mainly Targets New - Energy Vehicles - Anti - involution in the lithium - battery industry chain mainly targets new - energy vehicles. The policies aim to improve inventory turnover and eliminate false sales, but stimulating consumption may face challenges [27]. No Anti - Involution Policies for the Upstream - There are currently no anti - involution policies for the upstream. The mining license issues in Qinghai and Yichun have led to market expectations of upstream anti - involution, but this may be unfounded. Mining license problems are mainly related to regulatory actions [28][30]. Fifth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Supply Focus and Market Disagreements - The disagreement over lithium carbonate prices above 65,000 mainly concerns whether large mines in Jiangxi can renew their licenses on time. If 8 large mines in Yichun stop production, it is estimated to affect 75,000 tons of LCE production in the second half of the year. The renewal of the Jiaxiaowo mine's license is a key focus, and the shutdown of two Qinghai salt - lakes may affect 20,000 tons of LCE production [32][34]. Uncertainty in the Second - Half Balance Sheet - In July, there was a surplus of 500 tons. From August, there is high uncertainty. If mines stop production, there may be a large supply gap. High prices will stimulate production from domestic and overseas mines, but they cannot fully compensate for the short - term reduction [35]. Trading Logic and Strategy Suggestions - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to anti - involution expectations and bets on mine shutdowns. Pay attention to "expectation gaps". If mines shut down, prices may rise; if the risk is removed, prices may hit new lows [36].

Market Overview - The A-share market has surged past 3600 points, with resource stocks, particularly rare earth and lithium mining stocks, experiencing significant gains [1] - Notable stocks that hit the daily limit include Baogang Co., China Nuclear Industry 3rd, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tibet Mining, and Tianqi Lithium [2] Stock Performance - Key stock performances include: - Longi Technology: Latest price at 61.00, up 15.14%, with a total market value of 72.82 billion and a year-to-date increase of 98.53% [2] - Baogang Co.: Latest price at 2.52, up 10.04%, with a total market value of 114.127 billion and a year-to-date increase of 35.63% [2] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: Latest price at 15.90, up 10.03%, with a total market value of 14.553 billion and a year-to-date increase of 15.38% [2] - North Rare Earth: Latest price at 38.14, up 9.00%, with a total market value of 137.879 billion and a year-to-date increase of 80.03% [2] Futures Market - The futures market is also performing strongly, with coking coal futures hitting a limit up at 1198.5 yuan/ton, lithium carbonate futures rising by 7.21% to 76,680 yuan/ton, and polysilicon increasing by over 5% [3][4] Rare Earth Sector - North Rare Earth stock reached a new high since June 2022, closing up 9% with a total market value of 137.879 billion [5] - The company expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [7] - The production of rare earth separation products and metals has reached historical highs, with increases of 5.62% and 60.38% respectively [7] Price Trends - The rare earth price index has surpassed 200 for the first time this year, reported at 203.4 [10] - Both North Rare Earth and Baogang Co. have raised rare earth concentrate prices for four consecutive quarters [9] Catalysts for Growth - The resource stock rally is driven by multiple factors including favorable policies, supply-demand tightness, and increasing demand for new energy [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing a new growth plan for key industries, which is expected to boost the basic metals market [13] - Recent regulatory changes in Jiangxi regarding lithium mining have raised concerns about potential production halts, which may lead to an increase in lithium carbonate prices [15] Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance battery standards and limit disorderly capacity expansion in the lithium sector, positively impacting lithium carbonate and battery segments [16] - The demand for high-end permanent magnet materials is anticipated to grow significantly, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, as the approval process for rare earth material exports accelerates [16]

2、稀土方面，北方稀土、包钢股份两大稀土巨头宣布提价，叠加行业龙头北方稀土预计上半年归母净 利最高预增2014%，业绩预期得以强化。此外，我国在内蒙古发现一种新稀土矿物——钕黄河矿。 或由于行业"反内卷"引发供给收缩预期，有色金属板块集体起飞，中证有色金属指数60只成份股中26只 个股涨超3%，盛新锂能、西藏矿业、金钼股份、天齐锂业涨停，华友钴业、北方稀土涨超9%。值得一 提的是，北方稀土全天成交额超156亿元，高居A股成交榜第三。 热门ETF方面，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格猛拉3.17%，上探2022年7月 以来的高点（1.343元）。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨33.20%。 数据来源：Wind，统计区间：2025.4.8-2025.7.14。注：中证有色金属指数2020-2024年年度涨跌幅为： 35.84%；35.89%；-19.22%；-10.43%；2.96%。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测 历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。 资金面上，超百亿主力资金狂涌！有色金属板块获主力资金净流入166.80亿元，霸居31个申万一级行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Electric's control rights are undergoing changes, with the actual controllers planning a transfer of control amid ongoing losses in the lithium industry due to falling lithium carbonate prices [3][4]. Group 1: Control Rights and Company Background - Jiangte Electric's actual controllers, Zhu Jun and Lu Shunmin, hold 14.12% of the company's shares through the controlling shareholder Jiangxi Jiangte Electric Group [4]. - The company's total market value before the suspension was 13.2 billion yuan, with the market value corresponding to the actual controllers' holdings at 1.877 billion yuan [4]. - Zhu Jun has been the chairman and general manager since January 2002, while Lu Shunmin joined the board in the same year and became the chairman of the controlling shareholder in 2006 [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Industry Context - Jiangte Electric has faced continuous losses since 2023, attributed to the decline in lithium carbonate prices [3][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.572 billion yuan in 2022, with a profit of 2.326 billion yuan, marking significant growth compared to previous years [8]. - The company has been involved in the lithium industry since 2010, acquiring various lithium-related assets, but faced substantial losses from its investment in Jiulong Automobile, leading to a strategic shift towards smart motors and lithium industries [6][8]. Group 3: Lithium Resource and Production Challenges - Jiangte Electric holds significant lithium resources, with over 1 million tons of proven lithium resources and several mining rights [7][9]. - The company has a production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, but has struggled with profitability due to high production costs compared to current market prices [9][10]. - The company is currently undergoing a 26-day shutdown for maintenance of its lithium salt production line, aimed at improving production efficiency and reducing costs [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant bullish momentum, with major indices collectively rising and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, indicating a potential new bull market cycle [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in major indices, with nearly 4400 stocks gaining, reflecting strong market sentiment [1][6]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, with sectors such as brokerage, new energy, and healthcare leading the gains [4][5]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Signals - Recent policy announcements, including the full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port and the expansion of cross-border asset management trials, have positively impacted the brokerage sector, contributing to the market's upward movement [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Politburo meeting will provide further guidance on future investment opportunities [5]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Historical analysis indicates that the A-share market is currently in a new bull market cycle, with comparisons drawn to previous bull markets in 2005 and 2015 [10][12]. - The current financing balance has exceeded 1.9 trillion yuan, suggesting that there is still room for growth compared to previous peaks [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as banking, insurance, and consumer goods, while also considering technology and healthcare for long-term growth potential [22][23]. - A balanced investment approach, including both undervalued blue-chip stocks and growth-oriented technology sectors, is recommended to navigate the current market conditions [24].