开年以来，政策预期、流动性与基本面共振上修，投资者对证券市场也有了更多的期待。 数据说明：截至2025.12.31，张雨迪具有7.4年证券从业经历，其中6.6年证券研究经历，0.8年证券投资 经历，张雨迪历任基金——华商稳健泓利一年持有混合20250226至今。文中观点来自基金定期报告，仅 为基金经理投资理念，基金的投资策略详见基金法律文件。华商稳健泓利一年持有混合A类申购费率根 据申购金额划分不同标准：金额＜100万元时费率为0.8%；100万元≤金额＜300万元时费率为0.5%；300 万元≤金额＜500万元时费率为0.3%；金额≥500万元时按每笔1000元收取。C类基金份额不收取申购费。 投资人持有本基金 A 类或 C 类基金份额需至少满一年，在一年持有期内不能提出赎回申请，持有满一 年后赎回，不收取赎回费用。红利再投资的基金份额在对应认购/申购份额锁定持有期到期后即可进行 赎回或转换转出，不收取赎回费用。销售服务费A类不收取，C类0.4%/年。通过本公司直销中心申购本 基金的养老金客户适用特定的申购费率，详见本基金《招募说明书》及相关公告。 华商稳健泓利一年持有混合基金经理张雨迪表示，展望未来，预计 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in a mid-stage of a new industrial cycle driven by artificial intelligence, which is considered the leading industry of this cycle [1][4][10] - The focus areas for investment include computing power (semiconductor equipment, GPU chips, storage, optical communication, liquid cooling) and AI applications (humanoid robots, autonomous driving, industrial AI, agents) [4][10] - Core assets are concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, machinery, and electrical equipment [4][10] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience volatility with significant sector performance differentiation by Q4 2025, where non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and communications are projected to perform well, while pharmaceuticals, real estate, and beauty care are expected to lag [4][10] - The portfolio structure of the Huashang Strategy Selected Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund remains stable, with major allocations in upstream resources, digital economy, smart electric vehicles, green energy, national defense and military industry, biomedicine, and consumer services [4][10] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes a combination of core assets as a foundation and enhancing returns through leading industries in the industrial cycle, aiming to improve the risk-return profile of the investment portfolio [3][9] - The fund manager has nearly 13 years of experience in the securities industry, with a focus on mid-level industry research and a value growth strategy [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to experience moderate policy support, with a focus on both supply and demand to achieve reasonable growth, while the A-share market is anticipated to stabilize above 4000 points, transitioning from a historical resistance level to a significant support level. The international gold price is also expected to maintain an upward trend [1]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and achieving high-quality development. The People's Bank of China plans to implement moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The core drivers of economic growth in 2026 are expected to be investment driven by policy, recovery in domestic demand, and resilient exports, forming a multi-faceted growth structure [4]. - The actual GDP growth rate for mainland China in 2026 is projected to reach or exceed the IMF's forecast of 4.2%, with a market consensus around a target close to 5% due to manufacturing momentum and resilient infrastructure investment [4]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is currently in a phase of structural differentiation, with a significant increase in trading volume. It is expected to effectively stabilize at the 4000-point level, which has shifted from a resistance level to a support level [7]. - Key drivers for the A-share market's stability at 4000 points include policy and liquidity support, improvement in corporate earnings, continuous capital inflow, and restoration of market confidence [7][8]. Investment Themes - The investment theme for 2026 is expected to emphasize "endogenous growth + self-controllable" logic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy, capital, and demand resonance, particularly in technology, energy transition, advanced manufacturing, and high-end services [9]. Gold Price Outlook - The international gold price is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases. The gold price may experience short-term fluctuations but is expected to trend upwards in the medium to long term, potentially reaching 5500-6000 USD/ounce [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant interest in gold investments, with the Shanghai Gold ETF experiencing a net inflow of 367 million yuan over six days, reflecting strong market demand for gold [1] - The U.S. labor report revealed that 130,000 non-farm jobs were added in January, exceeding market expectations, which led to a shift in traders' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from June to July [1] - Analysts from Huayuan Futures suggest that the current monetary policy space for the Federal Reserve remains substantial, and the duration of the current rate-cutting cycle may be extended due to persistent inflation, which could support gold prices [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities noted that recent fluctuations in gold prices were driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and changes in regional geopolitical expectations, leading to rapid price increases followed by significant corrections [2] - The market may have overestimated the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, while uncertainties in regional situations could lead to continued volatility in the gold market until clarity is achieved [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations, Citic Securities maintains an optimistic outlook for precious and non-ferrous metal prices through 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday is creating a critical window for the A-share market, with investors focusing on whether to "hold cash for the holiday" or "hold high-dividend assets" [1] - High-dividend ETFs have shown resilience in a volatile market, with the high-dividend ETF (159207) achieving a cumulative return of 8.18% as of February 11, and experiencing net inflows for ten consecutive trading days [1] - The index tracked by the high-dividend ETF, the CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, has outperformed similar dividend indices, with a year-to-date increase of over 7% and an annual return of 12.72% for 2025, exceeding peer indices by more than 7 percentage points [1][2] Group 2 - The CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index has a differentiated compilation method, enhancing its core advantage over traditional dividend indices by using a "pre-announced dividend yield" selection method, which increases the certainty of dividend yields and reduces the risk of "high-dividend traps" [2] - The index's annualized dividend yield is approximately 7%, significantly higher than similar dividend indices, and its component stocks are well-distributed across industries such as coal, textiles, and machinery, with the top ten stocks accounting for about 30% of the total weight [2] - In the current low-interest-rate environment in China, high-dividend and stable dividend stocks are becoming increasingly attractive, serving as a "ballast" for many funds seeking balanced allocation [2] Group 3 - Multiple brokerages are optimistic about the market's elasticity post-holiday, noting a historical "Spring Festival effect" in A-shares, suggesting that the pre-holiday adjustment may serve as a layout window [3] - As the Two Sessions approach after the Spring Festival, the market style may shift from "high-elasticity trading" to "certainty-based allocation," potentially benefiting high-dividend assets with strong dividend certainty [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of personal pension accounts for long-term retirement planning, highlighting tax benefits and exclusive investment products designed for steady accumulation over time [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Products - The "Beijia Target Risk Stable Fixed Income Product" offers a minimum holding period of 365 days with an annualized return of +3.95% since its inception on July 18, 2023, until December 31, 2025 [3]. - The "Jianxin Excellent Progress Pension Target Five-Year Holding Fund" has shown a one-year return of +22.19%, indicating strong performance in the market [3][6]. Group 2: Promotional Offers - New subscribers to personal pension accounts can enjoy five promotional benefits, including rewards for initial deposits and referrals, aimed at encouraging participation [4][5]. - Specific rewards include up to 88 yuan for first-time deposits and additional bonuses for reaching certain deposit thresholds, enhancing the attractiveness of the pension account [4][5]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The "Jianxin Excellent Progress Pension Target Five-Year Holding Fund" achieved net value growth rates of 12.61% and 22.19% for the years 2024 and 2025, respectively, outperforming its benchmark rates of 11.62% and 15.23% [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a structured research framework in analyzing industries and companies, particularly in understanding supply and demand dynamics and technological advancements [2][4][12]. Group 1: Research Framework and Methodology - The research methodology involves building a framework, making bold hypotheses, and continuously validating and adjusting these assumptions based on ongoing data [20][21]. - Supply-side research is highlighted as a critical area for generating differentiated insights, as it is often more challenging and time-consuming than demand-side analysis [4][19]. - Understanding industry cycles is deemed essential, with a focus on the cyclical nature of growth industries, which are often misclassified as non-cyclical [11][12]. Group 2: Industry Analysis and Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is categorized into core and satellite positions, where core positions focus on mainstream growth opportunities, while satellite positions seek out undervalued stocks with significant upside potential [30][31]. - The article outlines different stages of industry development, emphasizing that investment focus shifts from growth potential in early stages to valuation and competitive dynamics in later stages [22][25]. - The importance of management capabilities varies by industry, with strategic vision being crucial in early stages and operational efficiency becoming more significant as companies scale [28][29]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The article discusses the lithium battery supply chain, indicating that price discrepancies will eventually balance out, and there is no need for excessive concern [8][44]. - In the human robotics sector, the focus is on the product capabilities of Tesla's Gen3 robot, with the supply chain's importance ranked from core Tesla-related companies to potential domestic players [49]. - The electric grid equipment sector is divided into domestic-focused companies and those expanding internationally, with the latter expected to benefit significantly from AI advancements [50][53].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the efficient use of idle funds during the Spring Festival by investing in bond ETFs such as Huaxia Government Bond ETF (511100), Huaxia Credit Bond ETF (511200), and Huaxia Sci-Tech Bond ETF (551550) [1][2] - Investors can benefit from a 10-day interest income during the holiday if they purchase these ETFs before February 13 at 15:00 [1] - Bond ETFs provide stable interest income as long as the underlying bonds do not default, despite potential price fluctuations during the holiday [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Government Bond ETF (511100) tracks the Shanghai benchmark market-making government bond index, focusing on medium to long-term interest rate bonds with notable credit safety [1] - Huaxia Credit Bond ETF (511200) closely follows the Shanghai benchmark market-making corporate bond index, featuring AAA-rated issuers, primarily state-owned enterprises, indicating low credit risk and medium to short-term characteristics [1] - Huaxia Sci-Tech Bond ETF (551550) targets a basket of high-growth technology company bonds, with significant market capitalization and potential for yield exploration, also primarily consisting of issuers from state-owned enterprises [2]

来源：睿远基金 来源：睿远基金 一路走来，感谢每一位持有人的信任与托付，您们的选择赋予了我们更多前行的力量。 我的关键词是托付。这份沉甸甸的托付，源自信任，系于责任。 自公司成立以来，"以持有人长期利益最大化为先"不仅是一个承诺，更是回应每一份托付的初心与准 绳。 2026年希望我们能够把握机遇，以专业回馈信任，力争为持有人的美好未来贡献一份力量。 一路走来，感谢每一位持有人的信任与托付，您们的选择赋予了我们更多前行的力量。 我的关键词是托付。这份沉甸甸的托付，源自信任，系于责任。 自公司成立以来，"以持有人长期利益最大化为先"不仅是一个承诺，更是回应每一份托付的初心与准 绳。 2026年希望我们能够把握机遇，以专业回馈信任，力争为持有人的美好未来贡献一份力量。 值此新春佳节，我谨代表睿远基金，向持有人和关心我们的各界朋友们，致以最诚挚的祝福，祝愿大家 身体健康、家庭幸福、马年大吉。 责任编辑：江钰涵 值此新春佳节，我谨代表睿远基金，向持有人和关心我们的各界朋友们，致以最诚挚的祝福，祝愿大家 身体健康、家庭幸福、马年大吉。 责任编辑：江钰涵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in the Year of the Horse, supported by multiple favorable factors such as global liquidity easing, steady domestic economic recovery, improving corporate profits, and a supportive policy environment [1][5][8]. Market Outlook - The overall market is anticipated to continue a stable upward trend, potentially achieving a "three consecutive annual gains" for the first time in years, driven by corporate profits, market confidence, and a shift in deposit allocation [5][6]. - The market style is expected to transition from liquidity-driven to profit-driven, highlighting opportunities in technology growth, cyclical recovery, high-end manufacturing exports, and domestic demand recovery [1][3][8]. Sector Opportunities - Key investment themes include: 1. AI industry chain bottlenecks, particularly in infrastructure such as power, storage, and cooling [14]. 2. High-end manufacturing with global competitiveness, especially in engineering machinery, power equipment, and new energy vehicles [14][15]. 3. Cyclical leaders benefiting from supply-demand improvements due to policies against "involution" [14][15]. - The technology growth sector remains a core focus, with ongoing trends in AI and semiconductor hardware expected to drive investment opportunities [12][19]. Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as stable, with systemic risks being low. The expectation of a positive macro policy in 2026 is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. - The overall investment environment is expected to improve, with a gradual increase in incremental capital entering the market, driven by the performance of active equity funds [7][8]. Market Style Evolution - The market is likely to experience a "rebalancing" of styles, with both technology and cyclical sectors coexisting and presenting investment opportunities [11][12]. - The anticipated economic recovery may lead to a significant "high-low switch," where funds shift from high-valued sectors to those at historical lows [12][18]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in AI-related narratives that could impact market stability [23][24][25].