Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector[22] Inflation and Pricing - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at -0.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.7%[10] - The focus on price recovery is crucial, with core CPI recovery linked to the stabilization of the real estate market, which is essential for internal demand recovery[5] Structural Dynamics - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy continues to strengthen economic resilience, effectively countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on economic growth[5] - The ongoing structural transformation is expected to gradually reduce the drag from real estate and consumption, allowing for a more balanced economic outlook[5] Future Outlook - The economic environment is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, suggesting a potential turning point in negative narratives, with a more optimistic view on RMB assets[5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[6]

Economic Overview - The current economic operation in China faces increased challenges due to uncertainties in international circulation, but favorable conditions for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged [1] - The national economy has shown a good start this year, with April maintaining stable growth, laying a foundation for achieving annual targets [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Domestic demand plays a significant stabilizing role, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 50% to economic growth in Q1 [2] - The implementation of policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods has boosted retail markets, particularly in appliances and furniture [2] - Fixed asset investment has increased by 4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growth close to 9% [2] Industrial Growth and Innovation - The industrial economy has shown positive momentum, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale industries from January to April [2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors have outperformed average industrial growth rates, with significant increases in the production of industrial robots and new energy vehicles [2] Regulatory Environment and Support for Enterprises - New laws and regulations have been implemented to enhance the vitality of various business entities, including the promotion of private economy and fair competition [3] - The government has introduced measures to support industries facing challenges in transformation and export, fostering a more favorable business environment [3] Global Economic Integration - Despite rising protectionism and unilateralism, globalization remains a historical trend, and many multinational companies continue to invest in China, reflecting confidence in the market's potential [3] - China aims to enhance its economic circulation quality and promote efficient connections between domestic and international markets [3] Innovation and Digital Transformation - China is transitioning from being a manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with multinational companies upgrading their R&D centers in China to focus on digital innovation [4] - The integration of digital technologies with manufacturing and market advantages is being accelerated, promoting opportunities for emerging industries [4] Green Transformation - There is a strong commitment to promoting a comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, focusing on clean energy utilization and the growth of the renewable energy sector [5]

Group 1 - Structural tax reductions and fee cuts are important tools for implementing proactive fiscal policies and directly benefiting enterprises, with significant effects on promoting technological innovation and high-quality development in manufacturing [1] - Recent tax incentives include an increase in the R&D expense deduction ratio to 100%, with further increases to 120% for integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, and a 5% VAT input tax deduction for advanced manufacturing, raised to 15% for specific sectors [1] - In the first quarter of this year, tax reductions and refunds supporting technological innovation and manufacturing reached 424.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the first four months of this year, sales revenue in high-tech industries, technology transfer services, digital economy core industries, and enterprise procurement of digital technologies increased by 13.9%, 33.6%, 9.7%, and 9.4% respectively, indicating a rapid development of new productive forces [2] - Manufacturing sales revenue grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing, digital product manufacturing, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.4%, 12.6%, and 12.2% respectively, reflecting steady growth and innovation in the sector [2] - The State Taxation Administration will continue to leverage big data to ensure that policy benefits reach the intended recipients and will combat fraudulent claims for tax benefits [2] Group 3 - Structural tax reductions and fee cuts are expected to continue playing a positive role, enhancing corporate innovation capabilities and better serving the construction of a modern industrial system [3]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector in China showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in the value added of large-scale equipment manufacturing, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial production growth [3] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing also experienced a year-on-year increase of 10%, driven by strong demand for servers and industrial robots, with server production nearly doubling and industrial robot production increasing by 51.5% [3] - The government plans to continue implementing policies to enhance the quality and scope of new industries, accelerate the "AI+" initiative, and expand effective investment to promote sustained growth in the industrial economy [3] Group 2 - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the upgraded version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which includes nine new chapters focusing on digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity [5] - The 3.0 version aims to deepen regional economic integration and enhance the integration of production and supply chains, providing greater certainty for regional and global trade amid significant economic challenges [5] - Both parties will actively promote domestic approval processes to facilitate the formal signing of the upgraded agreement by the end of the year [5] Group 3 - The Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo is scheduled to be held from June 12 to 15 in Changsha, Hunan, with participation from over 12,000 individuals from 44 African countries and six international organizations [6][7] - The expo will feature various sectors including mining technology, clean energy, and modern agricultural machinery, along with special exhibitions showcasing well-known brands and products from Africa [7] - The Chinese government will support all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China by offering zero tariffs on 100% of product categories, allowing them to benefit from the Chinese market [7]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 4月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态 势。 5月19日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，4月我国经济生产需求平稳增长，就业 形势总体稳定，新动能积聚成长。 毕马威中国发布的2025年二季度《中国经济观察》报告指出："内需方面，得益于国内政策前置发力，居民消费、 企业投资显现出较强韧性；外需方面，在4月对等关税预期之下，企业抢出口活动热度较高。内需修复，外需走 强，国内生产热度也同步回升。" 不过，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟也对本报记者提醒，后续经济表现仍存隐忧。内需方面，当前国内生产仍 然强于需求，物价仍在低位波动，一季度GDP平减指数为-0.8%，已经连续第八个季度为负；房企库存压力不减， 房地产企稳的前景仍不明朗；耐用消费品以旧换新消费政策刺激效果或将减弱。外需方面，短期因中美贸易谈判 取得实质性进展，关税降幅超预期，二季度我国出口仍有支撑，但后续中美博弈或长期拉锯，国际贸易形势依然 复杂多变，需要政府和企业提前布局。 "下阶段，要坚持稳中求进 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery in this round is better than expected, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the subsequent physical quantity data will weaken. The production and investment of high - tech industries are strong during the transformation of new and old driving forces, but there are still problems such as insufficient demand, volume - for - price strategy, and weak private investment in some industries. The real estate market may remain stable at a low level, and the progress of tariffs eases some pressure. The annual nominal economic growth target in 2025 is around 4.9%, and it is necessary to observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years. Considering the trend of stock - bond ratio in the balance - sheet reduction cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited, and the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge if the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above the lower limit (1.7%) of the predicted range [6] Section Summaries Production - In April 2025, the added value of large - scale industries in China maintained a relatively high growth rate of 6.1% (previous value: 7.7%), with manufacturing and mining as the main driving forces, growing at 6.6% and 5.7% respectively. High - tech manufacturing (10%) and equipment manufacturing (9.8%) in the manufacturing industry maintained high - level production. The export delivery value growth rate dropped significantly to 0.9% from the previous 7.7%. The national service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous value [2] Consumption - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from March. Catering revenue increased by 5.2% (previous value: 5.6%). Optional consumption such as cultural office supplies, home appliances, gold and silver jewelry, furniture, and communication equipment maintained double - digit high - growth rates. However, the growth rate of automobile retail was low, dropping by 4.8 percentage points to 0.7%, and there was still a volume - for - price problem. Grains and oils maintained double - digit high - growth rates, and the sustainability of consumption - level recovery needs verification. Inflation data still reflected the problem of stronger supply than demand [3] Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (previous value: 4.2%). The manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous value. Industries such as transportation equipment, automobile manufacturing, and general equipment had relatively high growth rates. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was 5.8%, the same as the previous value. The growth rate of private investment was 0.2% (previous value: 0.4%), remaining at a relatively high level since the second half of 2024. After excluding real - estate investment, the private investment growth rate was 5.8% (previous value: 6.0%), the lowest since 2023. Real - estate investment declined significantly, with a growth rate of - 10.3% (previous value: - 9.9%). The decline in real - estate sales area continued to narrow to - 2.8% (previous value: - 3.0%), and the growth rate of unsold commercial housing inventory continued to decline. The decline in new construction, construction, and completion areas was relatively stable, and the year - on - year decline in new construction area bottomed out and rebounded. The real - estate climate index remained at a phased high [4][5] Asset Allocation - The economic recovery is better than expected, but some industries have problems such as insufficient demand and weak private investment. The real - estate market may remain stable at a low level. The nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%. Considering the stock - bond ratio in the balance - sheet reduction cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is limited, and the trading value of bonds may emerge if the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.7% [6]

1—4月，社会消费品零售总额达到16.2万亿元，同比增长4.7%，比去年全年加快1.2个百分点；直播带 货、即时配送等新业态新模式蓬勃发展，实物网上零售额增长5.8%。 21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道5月20日，国家发展改革委召开5月份新闻发布会，国家发展改革 委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超对当前经济热点问题进行了回应。 5月19日，国家统计局公布4月经济数据。面对4月中下旬陡增的对美出口关税等不利外部环境，我国经 济顶住压力实现平稳增长。 李超回应记者提问表示，4月经济运行向新向好，展现出强大的抗压能力和内生动力。从需求方面来 看，消费投资稳定增长、出口顶住巨大的外部压力保持增长，表明我国内需空间不断拓展、外需市场更 加多元。 4月份，固定资产投资持续扩大，制造业投资增长8.8%。以人民币计价的外贸出口额同比增长9.3%；锂 电池、电动汽车出口分别增长44.4%、25.7%；对东盟、韩国、日本、中亚五国出口快速增长，对共 建"一带一路"国家进出口加快增长。 从供给方面来看，生产供给较快增长，新动能持续释放。随着新质生产力不断培育壮大，创新优势加快 形成，并不断转化为新的增长点。4月份，高技术制造 ...

Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In April, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively fast growth rate for 2024 [1] - The service production index increased by 6% year-on-year, with information and business services showing stable growth, outpacing the overall service sector [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year in April, driven by the effects of the old-for-new consumption policy, which contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total growth [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to the overall investment growth [2] High-tech Manufacturing and New Production Capacity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [4] - Key sectors such as aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The added value of digital product manufacturing grew by 10% in April, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components experiencing accelerated growth [6] - New energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles showed remarkable production increases of 38.9% and 61.8% respectively [6] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8%, while furniture and communication equipment also saw significant growth [10] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting a growing trend in e-commerce [10] Policy Impact on Consumption - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy and improvements in the consumption environment have significantly boosted the consumer market [12] - The demand for green and upgraded consumption continues to rise, contributing to the stability and recovery of the consumer market [12]

Economic Performance - China's economy shows resilience and positive momentum despite external challenges, with major indicators demonstrating stable growth and accelerated innovation [1][4] - In April, the industrial production increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors growing by 9.8% and 10% respectively, highlighting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial sector [1] Service Sector - The service sector also exhibits steady growth, with the service production index rising by 6% in April, marking the second-highest monthly growth this year [2] - The digital transformation continues to drive growth in modern service industries, with information transmission and software services growing by 10.4% and leasing and business services by 8.9% [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is gradually recovering, supported by consumption and investment policies, with retail sales of household appliances and cultural products significantly outpacing overall retail growth [2][3] - From January to April, fixed asset investment increased by 4%, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [3] Foreign Trade - Despite a challenging external environment, China's foreign trade remains stable, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% from January to April, reflecting strong resilience and international competitiveness [3] - The growth in trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries has accelerated, with private foreign trade enterprises becoming key players in stabilizing foreign trade [3] Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic stability and growth, including recent monetary easing measures [4] - The focus on high-quality development is expected to help China navigate challenges and contribute positively to global recovery [4]

在复杂多变的外部环境中，中国经济正展现出一种独特的韧性与智慧——以做强国内大循环的确定性，应对国际大循环的不确定性。 内需为主导、内部可循环是大国经济的独特优势。我国是超大规模经济体，经济体量、市场容量都很大，产业体系完整，配套能力强，供给和需求都能够 支撑国内大循环。 在全球贸易格局剧烈动荡的当下，贸易保护主义的浪潮仍在汹涌，关税冲击频繁搅动着国际市场的平静。在这样复杂多变的局势中，中国经济的"双循 环"战略愈发凸显其前瞻性和必要性。 ■中国经济时报评论员 近期，全球经济形势愈发复杂，贸易保护主义的阴霾仍未散去，关税冲击等不稳定因素依然存在。在此背景下，我国经济的"双循环"战略愈发显得重要， 做强国内大循环已成为中国经济行稳致远的战略之举。国务院近日召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，强调要把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上， 以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，是习近平总书记在2020年4月中央财经委员会会议上首次提出的。从2020年提出"双循 环"，到如今把发展的战略立足点放在做 ...