Economic Overview - The transportation industry has maintained overall stability and progress in the first half of 2025, contributing to employment, business stability, market stability, and expectations [1] Freight Volume - The total operating freight volume reached 280.3 billion tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. By mode, railway, road, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes grew by 1.8%, 4.0%, 4.3%, and 14.6% respectively. Notably, the ocean freight volume completed by Chinese shipping companies increased by 9.4% year-on-year [1] - Express delivery business volume reached 956 million pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3% [1] Port Operations - Port cargo throughput maintained growth, totaling 8.9 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. Domestic and foreign trade throughput grew by 5.0% and 1.8% respectively [3] - Container throughput reached 17 million TEUs, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Domestic and foreign trade container throughput increased by 4.0% and 8.9% respectively [3] Passenger Travel - Cross-regional passenger flow reached 33.76 billion person-times, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. By mode, railway and civil aviation passenger volumes grew by 6.7% and 6.0% respectively, while waterway passenger volume decreased by 2.5%. Notably, international civil aviation passenger volume surged by 28.5% year-on-year [3] Investment in Transportation - Transportation fixed asset investment remained high, totaling 1,647.4 billion yuan. Investments in railway, road, waterway, and civil aviation were 355.9 billion yuan, 1,129.1 billion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - G2 (specific company not named) - TikTok - Express delivery industry - Southeast Asian market - Low-altitude economy - Banking sector - Highway and port industry Key Points and Arguments G2 Performance - G2 has shown impressive performance with a cumulative growth rate that is leading in the market [1] - The overall volume of G2 increased by 27% in the first half of the year, with Southeast Asia growing by 58% and mainland China by 20% [2] - G2's growth in Southeast Asia is driven by TikTok's strong market presence, which is expected to benefit from significant order volume increases [2][3] TikTok's Market Share - TikTok's market share in Southeast Asia was 14.4% in 2022, decreased to 13% in 2023, and is projected to rise to 18% in 2024 [3] - During the 66 major sales event, TikTok's GDP in Southeast Asia doubled, indicating strong performance in the e-commerce sector [3] Express Delivery Market Growth - The express delivery business volume growth rates are as follows: 87% in 2021, 16% in 2022, 29% in 2023, and projected 41% in 2024 [4] - The first half of 2024 is expected to see a growth rate of 50%, with the second half projected at 66% [4] Industry Challenges - The express delivery industry has faced downward pressure on pricing, affecting single-package revenue and profitability [6] - The end-of-chain logistics are crucial for the healthy development of the express delivery market, and any price wars could negatively impact the industry [7] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen increased insurance capital allocation, particularly in Hong Kong, with significant investments in bank stocks [9] - There is a noticeable divergence in performance across different sectors, with some industries performing well while others lag [9] Highway and Port Industry - The highway sector has shown significant growth, with Sichuan Urban Area leading with a 23.5% increase, and Central Plains Expressway following with an 18% increase [10] - Companies like Ninghu Express are expected to achieve around 14% positive returns this year, despite a stagnant performance [12] Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining attention, with government support for the development of general aviation and low-altitude resources [15][16] - The establishment of a new working group by the Civil Aviation Administration is expected to enhance the development of the low-altitude economy [17] Recommendations - Continued focus on G2's growth potential in Southeast Asia is recommended, particularly due to TikTok's influence [18] - Monitoring the impact of pricing strategies in the express delivery sector is crucial, especially regarding companies like Shentong Express [18] - Attention should be given to the developments in the low-altitude economy and its potential market impact [19]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a supply-driven cycle, with technology fostering new platforms [1] - The shipping and aviation sectors are seeing efficiency declines rather than capacity shortages, influenced by geopolitical tensions and global trade disruptions [2] - The logistics sector is shifting from growth to price-driven profitability, with a potential transition from trade to manufacturing [4] - New energy vehicles and autonomous driving are expected to lower transportation costs and create new platforms for ride-hailing and instant delivery services [5] Summary by Sections 1. Shipping and Aviation - The shipping cycle since 2020 has been characterized by a decline in operational efficiency rather than a shortage of capacity [2] - Future aviation cycles may also be driven by decreased aircraft turnover efficiency [2] 2. Ports and Highways - With demand growth slowing, the focus is shifting from new capacity expansion to the integration of existing capacities, which will determine profitability [3] - Mergers and acquisitions in the highway sector are expected to enhance return on equity (ROE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios [3] 3. Express Logistics - The growth rate of express delivery volumes is slowing, with single-package pricing becoming the main driver of profitability [4] - Future price competition may ease, and the transition from trade to manufacturing could influence profit growth [4] 4. Transportation Platforms - The emergence of new energy vehicles and autonomous driving technologies is expected to create significant cost savings and new business models in transportation [5] 5. Shipping Market Dynamics - Shipping rates are influenced by supply-demand cycles, with operational efficiency being a key factor [6][8] - Port congestion and rerouting of vessels have led to significant increases in shipping rates [10][11] 6. Oil Shipping - Oil tanker earnings are also subject to supply-demand dynamics, with operational efficiency impacting daily earnings [12][14] 7. Air Transportation - The aviation sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics by 2025, with demand gradually recovering post-pandemic [27][29] - The growth in the number of aircraft is projected to remain low, impacting operational efficiency [31][32] 8. Infrastructure Development - The growth rate of freight demand across highways, railways, and ports is expected to trend downward, affecting capacity expansion [39][41] - The integration of existing highway assets is becoming more prevalent as new construction slows [42][46] 9. Market Opportunities - The express delivery sector is witnessing a slowdown in volume growth, but revenue is still increasing due to rising e-commerce penetration [61][63] - Price competition in the express delivery market may ease, presenting investment opportunities [64][66] 10. Supply Chain Dynamics - The profitability of large commodity supply chain companies is closely tied to fluctuations in commodity prices [67][70] - The shift from trade to manufacturing in the supply chain sector is becoming more pronounced [71][73] 11. New Energy and Autonomous Transportation - The adoption of new energy vehicles is expected to significantly reduce transportation costs, while autonomous driving technologies are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency [77][79] - The rapid increase in the penetration of smart driving technologies is projected to reshape the transportation landscape [80][82]

Core Viewpoint - The oil transportation market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases, with expectations for a potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Transportation Market Dynamics - In January 2025, the U.S. imposed large-scale sanctions on Russian oil tankers, leading to a short-term spike in transportation rates. The compliance demand for crude oil transportation remained high, keeping rates elevated in Q1 2025 [2]. - By June 30, 2025, the BDTI composite index was reported at 984 points, a 15.4% increase from the beginning of the year, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE was at $29,300 per day, reflecting a 37.0% increase [2]. - The oil demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, with IEA projecting a growth of 720,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 740,000 barrels per day for 2026 [3]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Impact - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August 2025, contributing to a projected global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day [3]. - The increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to be 1.4 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ will contribute an additional 400,000 barrels per day [3]. - The long-term outlook suggests that as non-OPEC+ countries gain market share, oil transportation demand from regions like West Africa, Brazil, the U.S., and Norway will continue to rise, potentially reshaping the oil transportation landscape [3]. Group 3: Recent Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.25%. The CSI 300 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50% [4]. - The transportation sector, particularly shipping, performed relatively well, with the shipping sub-sector rising by 1.91%, while the aviation sector faced a decline of 2.74% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]

Group 1: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector shows a divergence in certainty, with direct express delivery focusing on performance and e-commerce express delivery focusing on valuation [22] - SF Holding's business volume has been consistently exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 31.76% in May 2025, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate [23][24] - The company's profit margin has steadily improved, with a net profit margin of approximately 3.20% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points [24][34] - The e-commerce express delivery sector faces intensified price competition, which may lead to performance fluctuations, while the overall industry volume grew by 20.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][42] Group 2: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is experiencing improved supply-demand certainty, with strong demand for civil aviation travel during holidays, leading to a year-on-year increase in passenger load factor to 84.1% from January to May 2025 [4][5] - Supply constraints are evident, with limited capacity for new aircraft deliveries and high utilization rates of existing fleets, indicating a strong likelihood of supply contraction [5][6] - Ticket prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise during peak travel seasons, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a downward trend in oil prices [6][4] Group 3: Port Performance - The container throughput in ports remains resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% from January to May 2025, supported by strong export performance [7][8] - Dry bulk cargo throughput has shown signs of recovery, particularly in iron ore and coal, despite some short-term pressures [8][7] - Liquid bulk cargo, particularly crude oil, has faced demand pressures, leading to fluctuations in throughput [8] Group 4: Shipping and Chemical Products - The oil transportation sector is expected to see long-term supply increases, but demand remains uncertain, leading to potential fluctuations in freight rates [9] - Container shipping supply is gradually increasing, but short-term freight rates are expected to remain volatile due to changing tariff policies [10] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is anticipated to stabilize, with leading companies expected to recover their operating volumes, despite short-term declines [11][12] - Profit margins for major supply chain companies are projected to improve, with significant increases in gross margins for key products [12][13] Group 6: Road and Rail Transport - The highway sector is gradually recovering from a low base, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in freight volume from January to April 2025 [14] - The railway sector faces challenges due to weak coal demand, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in freight volume on the Daqin Line [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Global Sustainable Transport Summit held in Tianjin emphasizes the importance of international cooperation in sustainable transportation, focusing on infrastructure development, green transformation, and policy alignment to promote global sustainable transport [1][2]. Group 1: China’s Initiatives - The Ministry of Transport of China is accelerating the construction of a strong transportation nation and is committed to promoting global transportation cooperation, aligning with trends of green and digital transformation [1]. - China aims to enhance green transportation infrastructure, promote the application of new energy and clean energy, and develop smart transportation and logistics to contribute to global economic recovery and ensure stable logistics supply chains [1]. Group 2: Local Achievements - Tianjin has made significant strides in sustainable transportation, establishing the world's first smart zero-carbon terminal, achieving a 74% coverage rate of public transport stations within 300 meters in the city center, and a 76% proportion of green travel [1]. Group 3: International Perspectives - Russia is actively promoting transformation in the transportation sector, including reducing carbon emissions and upgrading infrastructure, with a goal to reduce diesel use in railways by 25% by 2030 [2]. - Pakistan is implementing various green transportation initiatives, such as building electric vehicle charging networks and promoting metro and electric bus systems in major cities, emphasizing sustainability and social responsibility [2]. - Armenia recognizes China's critical role in global connectivity across multiple transportation sectors and is looking to collaborate with Chinese enterprises, particularly in mountainous transportation construction [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a 0.2% dividend for the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331), with the record date on July 3 and payment date on July 8 [1] - Huachuang Securities highlights that high-dividend sectors in the Hong Kong stock market can maintain dividend capabilities and shareholder returns due to stable free cash flow generation, especially in a context where inflation has not yet returned [1] - Companies with abundant free cash flow can sustain dividend performance and convert capital expenditures into elevated ROE, showcasing both defensive and growth characteristics [1] Group 2 - Traditional industries such as banking, ports, and highways are emphasized for their stable earnings and dividends, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Industrial metals benefit from destocking and demand recovery, while telecom operators are experiencing accelerated free cash flow release due to maturing projects and increasing industry penetration, positioning them as scarce "growth-type cash flow" assets [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is noted for its lower valuations compared to the A-share market and a higher proportion of foreign investment, making it more appealing for international capital allocation, especially in a context of a weakening dollar [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) has distributed dividends for 11 consecutive months since its listing, indicating its potential as a monthly dividend fund [1] - Investors without stock accounts are encouraged to consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]

Group 1 - The "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project has been fully put into operation, marking it as the largest offshore gas field in China, capable of supplying over 4.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan [1] - The "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field has a proven geological reserve of over 1500 billion cubic meters and operates at the deepest water depth and highest temperature and pressure conditions in China, with a maximum temperature of 138 degrees Celsius [1] - The Shaanbei to Anhui ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project has commenced the core equipment electrical installation phase, with a total length exceeding 1000 kilometers and expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually to Anhui by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The construction of the Chongqing to Chengdu high-speed railway's main navigation hole bridge has entered the steel beam construction phase, with the bridge being a key node for the railway and expected to be fully operational by 2027 [2] - The Jin-Ha Highway expansion project in the Panjin section has achieved mainline connectivity, spanning 238 kilometers and set to become the first long-distance ten-lane highway in northern China upon completion [2] - The construction of the station building for the Xining to Chengdu railway in Sichuan has commenced, which is a significant part of China's "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network, aimed at promoting economic and social development along the route [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the high dividend sector of the Hong Kong stock market is gaining attention for its defensive attributes amid ongoing inflation concerns, with the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) rising over 1% [1] - Huachuang Securities highlights that companies in the high dividend sector possess strong free cash flow generation capabilities, ensuring dividend sustainability and shareholder returns, even in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Traditional industries such as banking, ports, and highways are emphasized for their stable earnings and dividends, making them attractive for investment in the current market conditions [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (code: 159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (code: 930914), which includes 30 highly liquid, consistently dividend-paying stocks with high dividend yields [2] - The index focuses on high dividend investment strategies and aims to reflect the overall performance of high dividend securities in the Hong Kong market [2] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider related funds such as the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [2]