【东盟专线】海南自贸港封关在即 官员称将深化同东盟经贸合作 中新社海口10月15日电 (记者 王子谦)海南省商务厅副厅长余翔15日表示，当前，海南自贸港封关在 即，正努力打造中国对外开放的重要门户，"相信这将进一步推动海南同越南等东盟国家在经贸领域深 化合作、实现共赢，并为越南等东盟国家企业带来新的发展机遇"。 在当天举办的中外记者见面会上，海南自贸港与东盟国家的经贸合作受到媒体关切。回答越南记者提问 时，余翔说，海南自古就是海上丝绸之路的重要枢纽，如今正利用自贸港政策优势和独特区位优势，构 建"两个基地"(中国企业走向国际市场的总部基地和境外企业进入中国市场的总部基地)、"两个网络"(空 海国际交通网络和国际经贸合作网络)、"两个枢纽"(西部陆海新通道国际航运枢纽和面向太平洋、印度 洋的航空区域门户枢纽)，强化作为共建"一带一路"南向门户的枢纽功能。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 其中，2024年，海南 ...

Group 1 - The IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting highlighted concerns over trade tensions and the restructuring of the international trade system, with representatives from various regions expressing worries about the potential risks associated with rapid AI development and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report predicts a global economic growth of 3.2% by 2025, while warning that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a permanent reconfiguration of trade, negatively impacting global efficiency [1][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of substantial slowdown, with employment data falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF cautioned about the potential risks of the current AI investment surge, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, suggesting that if AI fails to meet high profit expectations, it could lead to significant market revaluation and adverse economic impacts [3] - Fiscal pressures are identified as another downward risk for the global economy, with the U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, which is 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3][4] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to fiscal pressures, facing a significant reduction in aid despite efforts to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

Core Insights - The IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting highlighted three major economic challenges: trade tensions, the rapid development of AI, and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2][3] Trade Tensions - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report predicts a 3.2% growth in the global economy by 2025, but warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a permanent restructuring of global trade, negatively impacting efficiency [1][2] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of substantial slowdown, with employment data since July falling significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] - Global trade policies are causing uncertainty, affecting economies worldwide, particularly emerging markets that are more vulnerable to trade conflicts [2][3] AI Investment Risks - The IMF cautioned about the potential risks associated with the surge in AI investments, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, where high expectations could lead to significant market corrections if profits do not materialize [3][4] - Optimism surrounding AI investments has inflated stock valuations and stimulated consumer spending, but a failure to meet profit expectations could have adverse effects on wealth and consumption [3] Fiscal Pressures - The IMF highlighted that many governments, including major developed economies, are struggling to manage fiscal pressures, with U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3][4] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable, facing a significant reduction in aid while attempting to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

Core Points - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) is being held from October 15 to November 4 in Guangzhou, focusing on expanding market reach, improving quality, and increasing efficiency [1] - Over 32,000 participating enterprises, with approximately 3,600 companies making their debut at the fair [1] Group 1: Market Focus - The fair has increased its global partners to 227, covering 110 countries and regions [3] - More than 400 leading purchasing companies are expected to attend [3] Group 2: Trade Integration - A new initiative for foreign trade products to connect with domestic sales has been launched, featuring a dedicated area of about 3,000 square meters [4] - Over 600 new product launch events and 13 thematic forums are being held, with 240 trade service institutions providing comprehensive trade services [4] Group 3: Support for Enterprises - A 50% reduction in exhibition fees for export exhibitors is being continued, with all participating enterprises receiving free online platform services [5] - More than 5,000 enterprises are benefiting from these initiatives [5] Group 4: Innovation and New Products - The number of new product launch events has increased by 37%, with 63% of the new products applying innovative technologies [6] - 48% of the new products feature functional upgrades, while 47% reflect green and low-carbon initiatives [6] Group 5: Specialized Areas - A new smart medical area has been established, attracting 47 companies showcasing advanced medical products and technologies [7] - A service robot area continues to feature 46 leading industry companies, highlighting innovations in robotics [7]

此次，IMF预计，全球经济增长将从2024年的3.3%降至2025年的3.2%，比7月上调了0.2个百分点； 2026年则会降至3.1%，与此前预期没有变化。虽然此次预测较4月和7月的展望有所上调，但比作为基 准的2024年10月的展望均有大幅下调，意味着IMF预计全球经济仍将显著低于疫情前3.7%的平均水平。 此前，4月美国特朗普政府的关税冲击及其带来的不确定性促使2025年4月的展望报告将2025年全球增长 预测下调0.5个百分点至2.8%。随后，在7月的展望中，主要由于关税税率的降低及其对金融状况的影 响，IMF又将2025年全球增长预测小幅上调0.2个百分点至3.0%。 在IMF看来，虽然全球经济对贸易政策冲击表现出了弹性，但越来越多迹象表明，贸易保护主义措施的 不利影响开始显现。比如，美国核心通胀率上升，失业率小幅上升。其他多个国家的通胀也长期处于央 行目标之上，通胀预期仍然脆弱，随着不确定性和关税开始对经济活动造成压力，货币政策制定者的权 衡更加恶化。此外，随着全球经济陷入更加碎片化的格局，前景下行风险也在增加。从长远来看，生产 资源的再分配、技术脱钩和知识扩散的限制必然会抑制增长。 IMF认为， ...

10月12日，有媒体刊文直指美国贸易政策存在严重失当，称美高层声称对某国出台的稀土新规"毫无预判"实为推卸责任，真正该为当前贸易领域紧张局势 负责的是商务部长卢特尼克。 文章指出，在其主导下，美商务部不仅违背马德里会议不加码承诺，仓促出台BIS 50%规则，还持续扩充实体清单、破坏相关领域供应链稳定，甚至对特 定商品加征100%至150%的极端关税。这种激进做法暴露出战略短视，将美国拖入贸易争端泥潭，如今面对反制措施却扮起"受害者"，实属自食其果。 文章进一步批评，美商务部相关政策呈现明显盲动性：前脚签署国际会议承诺，后脚便抛出新规；一边破坏供应链稳定，一边加征不合理关税。其决策过 程缺乏长远规划，既未评估政策对全球产业链的冲击，也未考虑国内企业承受能力。这种"为打压而打压"的思维，导致美国企业成本上升、国际竞争力下 降，最终损害的是自身经济利益。 当前，若美高层真想平息贸易领域紧张局势，首要之举应是让卢特尼克辞职。否则，其位子稳一天，政策混乱便多一天——实体清单可能继续扩张，关税 壁垒可能进一步抬高，而美国在国际经贸秩序中的信誉也将持续受损。值得警惕的是，某些势力虽在贸易领域频频挑衅，却不敢轻易跨越军事红线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has strengthened export controls on rare earth materials and related items in response to U.S. trade policies, asserting that these measures are not prohibitive but regulatory, aimed at maintaining national security and international stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced two measures to strengthen export controls on rare earth materials and technologies, including five types of heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1][2]. - The spokesperson emphasized that China's export controls are not a ban and that compliant applications will be approved, highlighting a commitment to facilitating legitimate trade [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has been criticized for its unilateral trade measures, including imposing a 100% tariff and export controls on key software, which the Chinese government views as a double standard [2][4]. - The U.S. has over 3,000 items on its export control list compared to China's 900, indicating a significant disparity in trade restrictions [2]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - In response to U.S. maritime and shipping policies, China will impose special port fees on U.S. vessels starting October 14, which is seen as a necessary defensive measure to protect its industries and ensure fair competition [4][5]. - The Chinese government has expressed a desire for dialogue and cooperation, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and return to negotiations [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has strengthened export controls on rare earth materials and related items in response to U.S. tariffs and trade policies, emphasizing that these measures are not prohibitive but regulatory, aimed at maintaining national security and international stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced two measures to strengthen export controls on rare earth-related items and technologies, including five types of heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1]. - The spokesperson clarified that China's export controls are not a ban and that compliant applications will be approved, highlighting a commitment to facilitating legitimate trade [3]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has been accused of using discriminatory practices in its export controls, with over 3,000 items on its control list compared to China's 900, which the Chinese government claims disrupts international trade order and supply chain stability [2]. - The U.S. has recently implemented a series of restrictions against Chinese entities, including adding them to export control lists and imposing high tariffs, which China views as an incorrect approach to bilateral relations [2]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - In response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping, China has decided to impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, which is seen as a necessary defensive measure to protect its industries and ensure fair competition in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets [4][5]. - The Chinese government has expressed a desire for dialogue and cooperation, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and return to a path of negotiation [5].

特朗普政府对华发起"301调查"，并征收高额关税，不仅违背其宣称的"支持多边主义"承诺，更凸显美国对华贸易政策的延续性：即通过单边 施压解决自身竞争力问题。 一、美方执意挑衅，中方被迫亮剑 10月14日，美国将对部分中国船舶征收港口费，这是美方基于4月17日发布的"301调查"最终措施所采取的实质性行动。面对这一单边主义行 为，中国商务部新闻发言人最新回应中明确指出：中方的反制是"必要的被动防御行为"。短短八字，背后是中方在长期忍耐、多次沟通无果后 的坚决反击。 "被动防御"这一措辞在外交辞令中极为罕见。它清晰传递了三个信号：第一，中方不主动寻求对抗；第二，美方是矛盾的发起者；第三，中方 已退无可退，反制是唯一选择。这种直白表述，与以往"强烈不满""严正交涉"等常规用语形成鲜明对比，显示出中方对美方顽固态度的失望与 警示。 二、301调查：美式霸凌的"旧瓶装旧酒" 美方此次援引的"301条款"，是典型的单边主义工具。该条款源自美国1974年贸易法，允许美国政府对外国"不合理"贸易行为进行调查并单边 制裁。它绕开WTO多边争端解决机制，自成法官、陪审团与执法者。 具体到本次调查，美方指责中国在海事、物流和造船业 ...

2、有记者问：我们注意到，近日商务部发布公告加强稀土等相关物项出口管制，请问后续将如何实 施？ 据商务部网站，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问。 1、有记者问：10月9日，商务部、海关总署发布公告，对相关稀土物项实施出口管制。请问中方有什 么考虑？ 答：中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制 体系的正当做法。当前世界局势动荡不安，军事冲突时有发生，中方注意到中重稀土相关物项在军事领 域有重要应用。中国是负责任大国，依法对相关物项实施出口管制，目的是更好维护世界和平与地区稳 定，履行防扩散等国际义务。 中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。在措施公布前，中方已通过双边出口管 制对话机制向各有关国家和地区作了通报。中方愿与各国加强出口管制对话交流，更好维护全球产业链 供应链安全稳定。 特别是9月中美马德里经贸会谈以来，短短20多天时间，美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，将多 家中国实体列入出口管制实体清单和特别指定国民清单；通过穿透性规则任意扩大受管制企业范围，影 响中方数千家企业；无视中方关切和善意，执意落地对华海事、物流 ...