Core Insights - The "618" promotional event has introduced two new features: the simplification of discount methods and the integration of national subsidies, leading to significant consumer interest and engagement [1][2][4] Group 1: New Promotional Methods - The promotional strategies have shifted to simpler and more direct discounts, with platforms eliminating complex discount structures in favor of straightforward price reductions [1][4] - The introduction of national subsidies has allowed certain products to be offered at discounts as low as 50%, enhancing the appeal of the promotions [3][8] - Major brands such as Apple and Xiaomi have seen significant price reductions on their products, with the iPhone 16 Pro being offered at a final price of 5499 yuan after applying various discounts [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - There is a notable increase in consumer engagement, with over 20 million products participating in the "618" event, reflecting a strong demand for both high-end and budget-friendly items [3][10] - The trend indicates that consumers are increasingly checking for national subsidies before making purchases, with significant participation from various provinces and cities across China [9][10] - The younger demographic, particularly those born after 2000, is reshaping market demand, showing a preference for high-quality, stylish products that enhance their lifestyle [10] Group 3: Sales Performance - The sales performance during the "618" event has been remarkable, with a 283% increase in total transaction volume for categories like home appliances and digital products compared to last year's "Double 11" event [7] - The national subsidy program has effectively driven sales, with 1.1 trillion yuan in sales attributed to the program and a significant increase in the number of consumers utilizing these subsidies [7][8] - The home appliance sector has experienced continuous double-digit growth, with retail sales in this category increasing by 38.8% in April alone [8] Group 4: Logistics and Service Enhancements - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their logistics services, with initiatives like same-day delivery for products purchased through national subsidy programs [5][6] - The "618" event has seen improvements in the recycling and replacement of old appliances, with comprehensive services offered across various regions [5][6] Group 5: Economic Impact - The "618" event and national subsidies are seen as crucial for stimulating domestic consumption, contributing to a consumption contribution rate of 51.7% in the first quarter of the year [11][12] - Collaborative efforts among government, platforms, and merchants are essential to maximize the potential of shopping festivals in driving economic growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is facing disruptions as several regions, including Jiangsu and Chongqing, have suspended the issuance of national subsidies for home appliances, raising consumer concerns. However, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce has confirmed that the "old-for-new" policy will not end prematurely, attributing the suspensions to system upgrades and periodic inventory checks [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Updates - Chongqing has halted the issuance of subsidies for 27 categories of green smart home appliances and home renovation due to exhausted funds, with plans for a second phase of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy being drafted [2][10]. - Jiangsu's Department of Commerce stated that the suspension of subsidies is due to system upgrades, and both online and offline channels will implement quota management until the end of the year [2][10]. - In Guangdong, while some cities have paused certain subsidies, most regions continue to offer them, with the overall "old-for-new" policy set to last until December 31, 2025 [7][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a reported sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan driven by the program as of May 31, 2025. Approximately 175 million subsidies have been issued to consumers [10][11]. - In Guangdong, the "old-for-new" sales reached 153.45 billion yuan in 2024, benefiting over 11.28 million consumers, making it the largest scale in the country [10][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate the allocation of funds to support the "old-for-new" initiative, which is seen as a key driver for consumption recovery and economic stability [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of the "national subsidy" program for home appliances in several regions has raised concerns about the early termination of subsidies, but the official response confirms that the nationwide deadline remains December 31, 2025, with local suspensions being temporary adjustments [1][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Suspension - The suspension in various regions is attributed to the exhaustion of subsidy funds and system upgrades [2][4]. - In Chongqing, the first round of 1.2 billion yuan in home appliance subsidies was exhausted by early June, leading to a pause in online applications [2]. - Other regions, such as Gansu and Guangdong, have also reported similar suspensions due to fund depletion and system management [3][5]. Group 2: Key Policy Content - The national subsidy policy covers three main areas: 1. **Automobile Trade-in**: Subsidies of 20,000 yuan for purchasing new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles when trading in older models [7]. 2. **Home Appliance and Digital Subsidies**: Expanded categories for subsidies include microwaves and water purifiers, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan for energy-efficient appliances [9][10]. 3. **Public Equipment Updates**: Subsidies for replacing old public transport vehicles and agricultural machinery, with significant increases in subsidy amounts [11][12]. Group 3: Consumer Action Guide - Consumers are advised to secure their eligibility for subsidies promptly, as funds are being rapidly depleted [13]. - Online applications for home appliance and digital product subsidies can be made through the JD APP with specific search terms [14]. - It is crucial to rely on official channels to avoid misinformation regarding subsidy availability [15]. Group 4: Important Reminders - The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that the national subsidy program will end on December 31, 2025, but local funds may run out earlier, necessitating prompt action from consumers [18]. - The current subsidy pool has already consumed over 70% of its funds, with high-value items seeing the fastest depletion [18]. - The second batch of funds is being expedited, with 81 billion yuan already allocated to support local policy transitions [19].

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" subsidy program in Hubei is confirmed to continue until December 31, 2025, despite rumors of suspension or adjustment, aiming to benefit more consumers through a daily limited issuance of vouchers [1][2] Group 1: Policy Details - The validity period for newly issued vouchers has been shortened from 15 days to 7 days, while historical vouchers can be reissued after unbinding, showcasing the policy's flexibility [1] - The subsidy vouchers are distributed through both online and offline channels, with specific rules for cross-province usage and restrictions on voucher mixing [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Protection and Experience - Consumers can report violations such as price hikes before subsidies to market regulatory authorities, and digital products must be activated on-site to prevent arbitrage [2] - A 24/7 customer service hotline has been established to enhance consumer experience, and a comprehensive service process has been created to address issues from qualification application to after-sales support [2] Group 3: Market Impact - As of May 5, 2023, Hubei has seen significant participation in the "old-for-new" program, with 100,100 vehicles and 27.802 million units of 3C digital products, home appliances, kitchen appliances, and electric bicycles exchanged, driving consumption of 48.174 billion yuan [2] - During the "May Day" holiday, home appliance and electronic goods stores in Hubei experienced year-on-year transaction growth of 24.23% and 29.87%, respectively, indicating a positive market response [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in consumer behavior in China, where spending is increasingly viewed as a form of investment rather than mere consumption, reflecting a desire for value retention and appreciation in purchases [5][15][48]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Trends - In Shanghai, large-scale consumption vouchers have led to significant increases in sales, particularly in gold jewelry, indicating a strong consumer interest in both consumption and investment [2][3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a stark contrast between the rising prices of gold (up 40.1%) and the overall CPI, which decreased by 0.1%, highlighting a trend where consumers are prioritizing investment-like purchases [3][5]. - The concept of "investment-style consumption" is becoming prevalent, where consumers are not just buying goods but are also considering their potential for value retention and appreciation [6][17][24]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Context - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including subsidies for replacing old goods, which have significantly boosted sales across multiple categories [7][8]. - Despite the push for increased consumer spending, the actual contribution of consumption to GDP has remained relatively stable, indicating that the growth in consumer loans has not translated into proportional increases in retail sales [18][20]. - Recent trends show a surge in consumer loans, with banks aggressively promoting these products, but much of this borrowing is being redirected towards investments rather than direct consumption [21][22]. Group 3: Service Consumption - There is a notable shift towards service consumption, which includes spending on experiences rather than physical goods, yet this segment remains underreported in official statistics [30][32]. - Current data indicates that while product consumption has returned to historical levels, service consumption lags behind at only 87.7% of historical trends, suggesting untapped potential in this area [34][38]. - The quality and quantity of service supply are critical to meeting consumer demand, and enhancing service offerings could be a key strategy for stimulating further consumption growth [35][41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant impact of fiscal policies on boosting consumer spending, particularly through the "national subsidy" programs for replacing old consumer goods [1][2][3] - As of May 31, 2025, the sales generated from the five major categories of consumer goods replacement exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed directly to consumers [1][2] - The "national subsidy" program has sparked consumer enthusiasm, with substantial participation in the replacement of household appliances and vehicles, indicating a strong market response [2][3] Group 2 - The fiscal policy aims to enhance consumer willingness and expand demand by providing direct financial support, which is crucial for stimulating consumption in the current economic environment [2] - In 2024, the central government allocated 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement initiative, which is expected to drive sales of automobiles and home appliances beyond 1.3 trillion yuan [2] - Historical data shows that from 2009 to 2015, the central government invested over 200 billion yuan in subsidies, resulting in a retail sales increase of over 3.5 trillion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of such fiscal measures [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the "trade-in" program for consumer goods is accelerating, particularly in the categories of home appliances and automobiles, while electric bicycles remain stable [1][2][3] - In May, the average daily trade-in volume for automobiles was approximately 38,000 units, a slight decrease from April's 39,000 units, while projections for September to December 2024 suggest an increase to 47,000 units per day [2][10] - Home appliances saw an increase in trade-in activity, with May's average daily volume reaching about 829,000 units, up from 630,000 units in April [2][10] - The trade-in volume for electric bicycles remained relatively stable, with May's average daily volume at approximately 62,000 units, compared to 65,000 units in April [2][11] Group 2 - The overall trade-in activity for the three consumer goods categories (automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles) showed an increase in May, with a weighted average daily trade-in volume rising from 92,000 units in April to 109,000 units in May [3][12] - The trade-in program is projected to drive significant sales, with the Ministry of Commerce estimating that the program will generate over 1.3 trillion yuan in product sales in 2024, and approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025 [4][5] - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with infrastructure projects and durable goods consumption being the main drivers of economic activity, while industrial production and external demand remain weak [15][16][22] Group 3 - The trade-in program's impact on consumer spending is significant, as evidenced by the strong sales figures driven by the program [4][5] - The weekly economic observations indicate a slight decline in the macroeconomic activity index, but it remains above 5%, suggesting ongoing economic recovery [15][16] - The trade-in program is part of a broader strategy to stimulate consumption and support economic growth, particularly in the context of fluctuating external trade dynamics [28][29]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Group 1 - The government has been implementing a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods, benefiting consumers and boosting consumption momentum since last year [1][3] - Funding for the trade-in policy comes from tax revenues, with both central and local governments contributing [3][5] - Central government funding for the trade-in program has doubled this year, with 300 billion yuan in special bonds issued to support the initiative, an increase of 150 billion yuan from the previous year [3][7] Group 2 - Local governments are required to match central funding, with provinces like Shandong actively raising funds to meet the 15% local contribution requirement [6][8] - The trade-in policy has led to significant sales growth for companies, with a reported 30% increase in sales for Shandong Sanyuan Home Appliances in the last quarter and the first four months of this year [8][10] - The scope of the trade-in policy has expanded to include a wider range of consumer products, enhancing the benefits for consumers [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The green smart home appliance subsidy program in Chongqing has been suspended due to the exhaustion of available funds, impacting consumer purchasing behavior and the home appliance market [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Funding - The "National Subsidy" policy for green smart home appliances was implemented to promote the replacement of old appliances with new ones, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for 2025, doubling the amount from 2024 [4][5]. - The funding is distributed to local governments based on a 9:1 cost-sharing principle, with varying central government support ratios across different regions [5][6]. - As of June 3, the first round of subsidy funds in Chongqing has been fully utilized, leading to the suspension of the subsidy program until further notice [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The suspension of the subsidy program has led to a significant impact on home appliance sales, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with reports of increased foot traffic and sales prior to the suspension [10]. - Chongqing's implementation of the subsidy program has resulted in 42.88 billion yuan in subsidies claimed, benefiting 3.4 million consumers and driving 288 billion yuan in sales for key products [9][10]. - The overall demand for consumer goods under the old-for-new policy has been strong, with many regions reporting high utilization rates of the initial subsidy funds [5][6].