Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of **晨光股份 (Morning Glory Co., Ltd.)**, a leading player in the traditional stationery and IP product market, particularly focusing on the **潮玩 (trendy toys)** segment and its distribution channels [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Importance of Traditional Channels - Traditional channels, such as school-side stores and grocery stores, are crucial for brands like **卡游 (Kawoo)** and **布鲁可 (Blukoo)** to reach younger consumers and facilitate immediate purchases, especially as the main consumer demographic for trendy toys is aged 25-35, accounting for over 70% of the market [1][2]. - The rapid expansion of trendy toy brands heavily relies on traditional distribution channels, with over 80% of sales for brands like Blukoo and Kawoo coming from these channels [2][3]. Distribution Network and Market Coverage - **晨光股份** has established a comprehensive distribution network, with nearly 70,000 retail terminals using its branding by the end of 2024, covering approximately 50% of the nation's primary schools despite a decline in the total number of schools from 257,000 in 2010 to 143,500 in 2023 [1][4][6]. - The company has a strong presence in 1,200 cities through partnerships and has over 700 large retail stores and thousands of authorized shops on various e-commerce platforms [4]. Inventory Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory turnover days significantly from 78.8 days in 2015 to 28.6 days in 2024, enhancing its inventory management capabilities through digital tools and strategic initiatives [1][7]. Product Optimization Strategy - **晨光股份** has implemented a strategy to optimize its product structure by phasing out low-margin SKUs and developing higher-end products. The price of writing tools has increased from 0.177 RMB in 2011 to 1.28 RMB in 2024, with a gross margin rising to 42.9% [2][8]. - The price of student stationery has also increased from 0.34 RMB in 2011 to 0.67 RMB in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of around 34% [8]. Market Perception and Future Outlook - Despite skepticism regarding the value of traditional stationery sales channels, **晨光股份** is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and market presence, especially as the market evolves [10]. - Future profit predictions estimate **晨光股份** will achieve a net profit of 1.61 billion RMB in 2025 and 1.82 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.6 and 15.6, indicating a favorable valuation for a company maintaining double-digit growth [11]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s focus on enhancing single-store quality and utilizing digital tools has led to improved operational efficiency and sales performance [7]. - The ongoing transformation in consumer preferences towards trendy toys and IP products highlights the need for companies to adapt their strategies while leveraging traditional channels effectively [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guzi Economy" is gaining momentum, and the value derived from IP (Intellectual Property) is being widely recognized in the market [1] Market Overview - Among various categories of Guzi, trading cards are experiencing rapid growth due to their high playability, collectible value, and social attributes. In 2023, China's collectible card market reached 15.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.5%. CITIC Securities predicts that this sector may exceed 35 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% [2] Company Performance - The performance of leading company KAYOU reflects the heat in the card market. From 2022 to 2024, KAYOU achieved revenues of 4.13 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan, and 10.06 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.62 billion yuan, 930 million yuan, and 4.47 billion yuan respectively [3] Strategic Development - KAYOU is exploring more development possibilities in the rapidly growing market by continuously innovating expression methods, deeply co-creating with copyright holders, and enhancing IP's commercial value through precise market insights and strong operational capabilities [4] IP Activation - The demand for cards surged during the release of the animated film "Nezha: The Devil's Child," leading to a "card shortage" phenomenon. KAYOU's initial release of 4.5 million card packs sold out within a week, prompting quick restocking and the launch of new products [5] Production and Sales Network - KAYOU operates three production bases and one logistics center in Zhejiang and Guangdong, supporting a nationwide sales network. The company has a comprehensive dealer system with 217 dealers covering the market, allowing for rapid product development and distribution [6] Competitive Advantage - KAYOU's competitive edge lies in its understanding and respect for classic IPs, alongside its product design, innovation speed, and channel positioning. The company actively participates in IP operation and co-creation, moving beyond being a passive recipient of traffic [7] Collaboration and Expansion - KAYOU has established a deep collaboration with Hasbro for the "My Little Pony" series, significantly enhancing the commercial value of the IP. The card products have gained immense popularity on social media, expanding the audience from children to young women [9][10] Financial Growth - KAYOU's revenue is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 10.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280%. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 380% to 4.466 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 44.4% [13] IP Portfolio - KAYOU has developed a diverse IP portfolio, including 70 well-known IPs such as Ultraman, My Little Pony, and Naruto, which enhances brand recognition and attracts a broader fan base [14][15] Market Position - KAYOU ranks first in the collectible card sector within the pan-entertainment toy industry in China, holding a market share of 71.1% [16] Cash Flow and Innovation - In 2024, KAYOU's operating cash flow net inflow reached 5.113 billion yuan, a significant increase of 458%. The company is focusing on product innovation, particularly in contemporary expressions of traditional culture [17] Product Diversification - KAYOU's product structure is evolving from single trading cards to a broader pan-entertainment ecosystem, with rapid growth in creative and stationery products [18][19] Future Outlook - KAYOU's high standards in craftsmanship and product development are expected to further enhance its competitiveness and contribute to the growth of the pan-entertainment product industry [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing product value through a strong IP and functional strategy, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs and expand its market presence internationally [4][15]. - The overseas market is showing initial signs of contribution, with a projected revenue of 1.039 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [4][15]. - The company plans to strengthen its IP strategy in 2025, targeting high-value stationery products that appeal to younger consumers [4][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.351 billion yuan - 2024A: 24.228 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.566 billion yuan - 2026E: 31.143 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.125 billion yuan - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1.527 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.396 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.607 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.831 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.075 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023A: 1.65 yuan - 2024A: 1.51 yuan - 2025E: 1.74 yuan - 2026E: 1.98 yuan - 2027E: 2.25 yuan - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [3][4]. Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company emphasizes product strength through a combination of strong IP and functionality, which has been a key driver for product upgrades [8][14]. - The independent brand "Qi Zhi Hao Wan" is rapidly developing, focusing on popular two-dimensional IPs and expanding its product offerings [20][22]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where it has established a significant market presence [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, with a combined ratio of 73% in 2024 [4][15]. - The report anticipates steady growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected increases of 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively [4][15].

以下文章来源于数据宝 ，作者宁墨 数据宝 . 数据宝——证券时报智能原创新媒体，中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，依托证券时报财经数据库和证监会 指定信息披露媒体的权威信息，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股 少烦恼！ 近日，美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，全球资本市场剧烈震荡。在外部风险加剧的背景下，资金会倾 向于流向更具稳定性和盈利能力的资产，A股中长期维持高净资产收益率的公司，正是这类优质企业的代表。 7股近10年净资产收益率均超15% 净资产收益率（ROE）作为衡量企业盈利能力的核心指标，备受投资大佬青睐。巴菲特曾提出："如果非要我用一个 指标进行选股，我会选择ROE，那些ROE能常年持续稳定在20%以上的公司都是好公司，投资者应当考虑买入。" 一般来说，长期维持高ROE的企业，往往具备稳健的经营策略和持续的盈利水平，并且拥有强大的竞争优势，涵盖 出色的管理团队、强大的专利技术、特许经营权、行业先发优势或规模优势，以及优秀的团队和创新能力等特征。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至4月6日，在2015年前上市且披露2024年年报的A股公司中，有7股去年境外收入占比低 于1 ...