1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the decline of manufacturing PMI, weaker than the seasonal level and with weakening supply and demand, may indicate certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [2][7]. - Both domestic and external demands declined, and price indicators did not continue the improvement trend of last month. The differentiated structure of "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" may restrict the repair of corporate profits [2][7]. - The business climate of large enterprises fell below the boom - bust line, and the business climates of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries significantly declined [2][7]. - The business climate of the non - manufacturing industry is mainly driven by holiday service consumption, and the overall expansion strength is still weak [2][7]. - The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 pct from the previous month, lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.0%. The non - manufacturing business activity index slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, slightly higher than the boom - bust line and lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.3%. Among them, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 pct, and the construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pct [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing PMI and economic pressure**: The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 fell back to a nearly two - year low. The production index and new order index decreased by 2.2 pct and 0.9 pct respectively to 49.7% and 48.8%. The procurement volume index decreased significantly by 2.6 pct to 49.0%, and the difference between the "finished - product inventory - on - hand orders" index widened by 0.6 pct to 3.6 pct. The weak pattern of production and demand was partly due to the pre - release of some demand before the National Day holiday and partly reflected the lack of endogenous momentum, indicating certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [7]. - **Demand and price situation**: In October, external demand did not continue its resilience, and the new export order index significantly declined by 1.9 pct to 45.9%. The new order index for domestic demand also turned from rising to falling. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index both decreased by 0.7 pct, recording 52.5% and 47.5% respectively. The difference between them remained at 5.0 pct, and the main raw material purchase price index was still in the expansion range. The "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" structure may restrict the repair of corporate profits [7]. - **Enterprise and industry changes**: Among enterprises, the PMIs of large and small enterprises both fell by 1.1 pct to 49.9% and 47.1% respectively, and the PMI of medium - sized enterprises slightly fell by 0.1 pct to 48.7%. In terms of industries, the PMIs of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries were 50.5% and 50.2% respectively, a decline of 1.1 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The consumer goods industry remained in the expansion range, slightly falling by 0.5 pct to 50.1%, while the PMI of the basic raw material industry further dropped to 47.3%. The overall market expectation was optimistic, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.8%, and the expectation indexes of industries such as non - ferrous metals and transportation equipment rising to the high - level boom range above 60% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing industry situation**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, and the service industry PMI rose to 50.2%. The on - hand order index fell by 0.8 pct while the new order index remained flat, indicating that the holiday effect was the main driver. The business activity indexes of industries such as transportation, accommodation, and culture and entertainment were all in the high - level boom range above 60%, but industries such as real estate continued to be sluggish. The construction industry business activity index turned from rising to falling, decreasing by 0.2 pct to 49.1%, possibly dragged down by the slowdown of holiday construction and the decline of post - holiday real estate sales [7]. - **Bond market outlook**: Currently, the endogenous momentum for the repair of production and demand may be limited. On the day when the PMI data was released, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.95 BP. The economic fundamentals still face a pattern of weak supply and demand, the pressure on enterprises for passive inventory replenishment continues, and the ex - factory - raw material price gap still restricts the repair of corporate profits. Although 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been put in place and local governments have an additional 200 billion yuan of special bond quotas, the sustainability of the recovery of real estate sales and the transmission effect of policy funds on infrastructure investment still need to be observed. The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [7].

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting overall economic stability [1] Group 2 - In October, the production index and new orders index for manufacturing are 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating reduced production and market demand [1] - Factors contributing to the slowdown include international trade uncertainties and seasonal factors related to holidays, which historically lead to a decline in production indices in October [1] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [1] Group 3 - The PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises are 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, respectively, with all showing declines from the previous month, indicating varying levels of economic activity [2] - Large enterprises have production and new orders indices of 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months, indicating sustained production and demand [2] - The equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index have risen for three consecutive months, with the factory price index reaching a new high since June 2024 [2] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index has increased to 50.1%, indicating a stable operating environment, supported by holiday consumption trends [3] - The service sector business activity index is at 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in service sector activity [2][3] - Investment and consumption-related activities are showing positive changes, with strong performance in travel, shopping, and entertainment sectors, contributing to overall economic stability [3]

Group 1 - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in October, indicating a contraction due to short-term disturbances from pre-holiday demand release and complex international environment [9][11] - The decline in PMI is not a signal of overall weakness, as large enterprises and advantageous industries continue to show resilience, while small and medium enterprises face pressure [11][12] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries maintain expansion in PMI, serving as core support for stabilizing manufacturing [12][31] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index slightly rose to 50.1%, driven by structural recovery in the service sector, although recovery remains uneven across industries [13][31] - The economic outlook indicates a need for more precise policy alignment with the pain points in specific sectors to support demand recovery [11][12] - The overall economic performance shows signs of stabilization, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization [28][31] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in October, marking the second consecutive rate cut [22][24] - Despite a cooling of December rate cut expectations, there remains potential for further rate reductions based on economic and inflation conditions [22][25] - The U.S. economy is exhibiting signs of "stagflation," with nominal growth under pressure and rising unemployment, yet the likelihood of significant inflation remains low [23][25]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index stands at 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting overall economic stability [1] Group 2 - In October, the production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points, indicating reduced production and market demand [1] - Key industries such as food processing, automotive, and aerospace show production and new orders indices above 52.0%, indicating active supply and demand [1] - Large enterprises maintain production and new orders indices above the critical point, with values of 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion for six consecutive months [1] Group 3 - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for October is at 52.8%, indicating optimistic market expectations among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index reflects a slight increase, with the service sector's index at 50.2%, indicating a recovery in service sector activity [2] Group 4 - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises regarding industry development [2] - Overall, non-manufacturing sectors are stabilizing, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities, supported by effective growth policies [2] - The fourth quarter is expected to see strengthened domestic demand, providing solid support for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2]

Group 1 - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting weakened production and market demand [1] - Large enterprises maintained production and new orders indices above the critical point, with values of 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion for six consecutive months [1] Group 2 - Three key sectors, namely high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods, reported PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, indicating that most manufacturing companies maintain an optimistic outlook for market development [2] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index continued to expand at 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in service sector activity levels [3] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises regarding industry development [3]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall economic stability in output [1] Group 2 - Key sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods are showing expansion, which is a positive highlight amidst the overall weak supply and demand in the manufacturing market [1] - There are signs of accelerated activity related to infrastructure investment within the non-manufacturing business activity index, which is noteworthy [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt limits to enhance financial capacity and expand effective investment, with an additional 200 billion yuan in special bonds for investment projects [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from September [1] - PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, showing declines of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2: Key Industries - The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The high-energy-consuming industries had a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a decline in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions, particularly in transportation, accommodation, and entertainment sectors, which saw indices above 60.0% [3] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a slight decline in construction activity [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector continues to stabilize, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [4] - The effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies is expected to strengthen domestic demand in the fourth quarter, supporting the achievement of annual economic and social development goals [4]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an economic slowdown[1] - The composite PMI output index stands at 50.0%, suggesting overall stability in production and business activities[1] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 50.5% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating continued expansion and support for the manufacturing sector[1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing production[2] - New orders index recorded at 48.8%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating reduced demand in the manufacturing sector[3] - New export orders fell to 45.9%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, influenced by ongoing trade tensions[3] Group 3: Price Index and Economic Resilience - The manufacturing purchase price index is at 52.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 47.5%, also down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a general decline in price levels[7] - Despite the price index decline, new momentum-related industries show positive price trends, with equipment manufacturing prices rising for three consecutive months[7] - The composite PMI output index indicates economic resilience, with a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a convergence towards potential growth[10]

Core Insights - The PMI index for October indicates that high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries continue to expand, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, reflecting sustained industry support and overall optimistic market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Key Industry Performance - The PMI for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries are reported at 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, indicating continued expansion [4]. - The production and business activity expectation index stands at 52.8%, suggesting a positive outlook for market activities [4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has slightly rebounded to 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion zone [9]. - The service industry business activity index is reported at 50.2%, also reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, continuing its expansion [9].

Manufacturing Sector - The October Manufacturing PMI index is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September[2] - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The new orders index stands at 48.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points, with new export orders at 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points[2] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.3%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The October Non-Manufacturing PMI index is at 50.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, remaining above the threshold[10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, unchanged from September, while the new export orders index is at 46.2%, down 3.6 percentage points[10] - The construction sector's PMI index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued contraction[13] Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies for counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cycle deployment as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes[1] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated for local government debt to support effective investment, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize growth[1] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises[15]