大摩宏观闭门会：政治局会议前瞻，稳定币解读及房地产市场更新 20250630 发言人 00:00 发言人 00:09 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大模宏观策略谈，我是罗丙邢志强。大家肯定很关注接下来七月份有 政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调，会不会有一些新的调整变化。我从昨天开始，周末就到了北京， 这周也会参加一些闭门研讨。我想现在各个部委、各个智库、各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓的分析经济形势 为决策层供稿谏言准备一些政策选项。我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾，包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家， 包括张磊，我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管，以及安全我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个 问题。第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断。第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素 扩展到货币结算体系，包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打？其实稀土小院高墙这张 牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性，我们会做一些探讨和分析。 发言人 01:40 这里面尽管今天 lao ra 我们的首席策略是由于在休假错过一周，但我们也会简单的涉及到一点，从过 去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大，就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is intensifying its narrative around the issue of rare earth magnets, accusing China of "weaponizing" these resources, while China has begun issuing export licenses for compliant applications from EU companies [1][5]. Group 1: EU's Position and Concerns - European governments and businesses have been lobbying China to ease export restrictions, viewing the situation as a "structural problem" in the bilateral agenda with China [2][4]. - EU officials express uncertainty about whether China's actions are a deliberate strike against EU companies or if they are collateral damage in the US-China competition [2][4]. - The EU is seeking a long-term solution and hopes for the restoration of open trade in rare earth magnets by April next year, or at least exemptions for non-military related EU companies [4][5]. Group 2: China's Response and Export Policies - China's Ministry of Commerce has confirmed the approval of a certain number of compliant export applications for rare earth magnets, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [8]. - The Chinese government has implemented export control measures that have expanded in scope, affecting not only rare earths but also critical raw materials and technologies [5][7]. - China asserts that its export control measures are in line with international practices and are non-discriminatory, not targeting specific countries [5][8]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics and Economic Impact - The EU's trade surplus with China has increased by nearly 23% in the first five months of this year, reaching a record $117 billion, despite claims of unfair competition [7]. - EU officials have highlighted the severe impact of magnet shortages on European companies, urging China to address these issues promptly [7][8]. - The EU is concerned about becoming a battleground in the strategic competition between the US and China, particularly in the rare earth sector [4][5].

Group 1 - The company, Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748.SZ), has initiated export declaration work in accordance with national regulations following the implementation of export control measures related to medium and heavy rare earth items [1] - The company has obtained export licenses issued by national authorities, with export regions including the United States, Europe, and Southeast Asia [1] - In the robotics sector, the company is actively collaborating with world-renowned technology companies on the research and development of embodied robot motor rotors and capacity construction, with small batch deliveries already taking place [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Rare Earth Minerals and Their Role in Energy Transition Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the **rare earth minerals (REM)** industry and its critical role in the **energy transition** away from fossil fuels [6][7][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Energy Transition Demand**: There is a growing demand for rare earth minerals driven by climate goals and the need for investment in green technologies. These minerals are essential for renewable energy technologies and various high-tech applications, including smartphones and defense systems [7][18]. - **Supply Chain Challenges**: A key challenge is determining whether there is a sufficient and secure supply of rare earth minerals to support the energy transition. The industry is heavily reliant on China, which supplies approximately **60%** of the global market and processes **90%** of rare earth operations [33][34]. - **Projected Demand Growth**: The demand for rare earth minerals is expected to increase by **300-700%** by **2040**, with clean energy technologies projected to account for **41%** of total rare earth demand, up from **13%** in **2010** [24][25]. - **Electric Vehicles (EVs)**: The mineral input for electric vehicles is **six times** that of internal combustion engine vehicles, highlighting the significant role of rare earths in the automotive sector [24]. - **Wind Energy**: The demand for rare earths in wind energy is projected to triple, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, as the industry shifts towards more efficient technologies [26]. Additional Important Content - **Environmental Concerns**: The extraction of rare earth minerals poses significant environmental challenges, including pollution and waste generation. For instance, mining one ton of rare earths can produce nearly **2000 tons** of toxic waste [45]. - **Recycling Potential**: The recycling of rare earths from outdated electric vehicle batteries is seen as a potential solution to mitigate supply demands, although current methods are costly and environmentally challenging [54][55]. - **Technological Innovations**: Companies are investing in alternative technologies to reduce reliance on rare earths, such as external excitation synchronous motors (EESM), which do not depend on rare earth permanent magnets [33][35]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The concentration of rare earth supply in China raises geopolitical risks, prompting countries to diversify their supply sources, although progress has been slow [38][39]. - **Market Dynamics**: Post-pandemic, rare earth prices have been declining due to oversupply and economic slowdowns in China, affecting profitability for producers outside China [40][44]. Conclusion - The rare earth minerals industry is at a critical juncture, with increasing demand driven by the energy transition and significant challenges related to supply security, environmental impact, and geopolitical dynamics. The future of this industry will depend on technological advancements, investment in sustainable practices, and effective policy frameworks to ensure a stable and responsible supply chain [65][66].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around India's sudden decision to halt rare earth exports to Japan, which has significant implications for the global rare earth market and geopolitical dynamics [1][8][10] - The backdrop of this decision includes a recent meeting between Chinese and Indian diplomats, where India requested a relaxation of China's rare earth export controls due to pressures on its automotive industry [4][6][12] - India's automotive sector is facing a crisis due to China's stringent export regulations, which have severely limited India's access to necessary rare earth materials [12][18][19] Group 2 - The abrupt termination of the supply agreement with Japan, which involved over 1,000 tons of rare earth materials annually, highlights India's reliance on rare earth imports for its manufacturing sector [23][25] - Japan's dependency on India for approximately 13% of its rare earth imports underscores the strategic importance of this relationship, especially in light of Japan's efforts to diversify away from Chinese sources [25][27] - India's rare earth production capabilities are limited, with a significant portion of its output being unprocessed ore, raising questions about its ability to meet domestic demand despite the halt in exports to Japan [21][29] Group 3 - The decision to cut off supplies to Japan may be a strategic move by India to leverage its position for technology transfers and industrial cooperation, rather than a purely domestic supply issue [30][32] - India's actions could damage its international credibility, making future collaborations in sensitive sectors more challenging [32][34] - The broader context reveals that technological capabilities in refining and processing rare earths are more critical than mere resource availability, with China currently dominating the global market [34][36]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The upcoming high-level talks between China and the US in London are expected to yield positive outcomes, similar to the previous meeting in Switzerland, although the brief 90-minute call indicates ongoing cautious exploration [1] - The nature of the China-US trade conflict has fundamentally shifted from direct tariff confrontations to a more complex battle over supply chains, particularly in critical areas like chips and rare earths [1] - The US's heavy reliance on China's rare earth supplies, which account for approximately 70% of global production and 92% of processing market share, creates significant leverage for China in negotiations [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in the US dollar index below 100 is expected to benefit emerging markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, providing liquidity support [2] - The market has shown resilience, with a notable recovery following a sharp drop in early April, indicating strong market fundamentals despite recent volatility [2] - A significant rotation of funds has been observed across various sectors, with over 60% of the market experiencing rotation, although the average increase in these sectors has been limited to 6.5% [2][4] Group 3: Quantitative Investment Trends - As of the end of May, there are 40 billion-level quantitative private equity firms, with the top three managing a substantial number of products, indicating a strong trend towards quantitative strategies in the private equity market [3] - The majority of quantitative investments are focused on smaller stocks, leveraging algorithms designed to capitalize on retail and speculative trading behaviors [3] - The upcoming mid-June dividend distributions for quantitative managers may lead to a significant cash-out from smaller stocks, potentially impacting their performance [6] Group 4: Sector Outlook - The technology sector is anticipated to become the next clear market leader, driven by increasing industrial momentum and the ongoing AI boom in North America, despite current price stagnation in A-shares [6]

问：近日，许多国家对中国稀土出口管制措施表达关注，请问中方将采取哪些措施回应各方关切？ 答： 稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性，对其实施出口管制符合国际通行做法。中国依法对稀土相关物项实施出 口管制，目的是更好维护国家安全和利益，履行防扩散等国际义务，体现了坚持维护世界和平与地区稳定 的一贯立场。 我们也注意到，随着机器人、新能源汽车等行业发展，各国对中重稀土在民用领域的需求 量正持续增长。中国作为负责任的大国，充分考虑各国在民用领域的合理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相 关物项出口许可申请进行审查，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中 方愿就此进一步加强与相关国家的出口管制沟通对话，促进便利合规贸易。 据商务部官网，商务部新闻发言人就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a phenomenon where American manufacturers complain about the inability to purify Chinese rare earth materials to acceptable standards, with performance being 30% lower than domestic materials, suggesting a technological gap rather than a supply issue [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Context - Rare earth elements are not just "earth" but a total of 17 metal elements, where even a 0.1% deviation in composition can lead to significant performance issues [3]. - From January to September 2023, China's rare earth exports increased by 8.4%, while the compliance rate for American companies dropped from 99% to 72%, indicating a technological divide rather than a supply cut [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - A breakthrough involves marking rare earth elements with nanoscale quantum tags using laser atomic deposition technology, which records the origin and optimal use of the materials [5]. - The activation of a "formula lock" mechanism ensures that if foreign manufacturers attempt to purify the materials without matching specific conditions, defects are intentionally created in the molecular structure [5]. - China has digitized a century of smelting experience into a "rare earth process chain brain," creating a significant barrier for American manufacturers still relying on outdated methods [7][8]. Group 3: Recycling and Efficiency - China has achieved a 98% utilization rate of rare earth materials through advanced recycling technologies, which are significantly more efficient than American methods [10]. - Techniques such as targeted dissolution and in-situ regeneration of crystal seeds allow for high purity and performance of recycled materials, outperforming new materials from the U.S. [10]. - Real-time cloud control of reaction processes enables precise adjustments, maintaining purity fluctuations within ±0.001%, far exceeding international standards [10]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The rare earth competition is fundamentally a struggle over "industrial operating systems," with China transitioning from selling raw materials to providing comprehensive service solutions [12]. - The development of a "rare earth refining OS" could allow allied factories to consistently produce high-quality rare earths, while those disconnected from the system may struggle despite having raw materials [12]. - China's advancements in reducing carbon emissions from rare earth processing are positioning it to dominate future environmental regulations and trade dynamics [12][14]. Group 5: Broader Lessons - The situation illustrates that resource ownership does not equate to processing capability, emphasizing the value of technological and intellectual property over raw materials [14]. - The open system approach adopted by China, allowing international companies to connect to its rare earth cloud platform, suggests a collaborative future in industrial processes [14]. - The ongoing developments in rare earth processing highlight the importance of data and technology in determining competitive advantage in the 21st century [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japan and the United States are advancing trade negotiations, with potential announcements of an agreement during the G7 summit [1] - Japan is attempting to secure tariff exemptions by committing to increase automobile production in the U.S. and enhancing cooperation in the rare earth sector [1] - Japanese Trade Representative Akira Amari is in Washington discussing non-tariff barriers, expanded trade, and economic security cooperation with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo [1] Group 2 - Japan's proposal includes a mechanism where an increase in automobile production and exports to the U.S. could lead to a proportional reduction in the 25% automobile tariff [1] - Japan still hopes for a complete elimination of tariffs but considers a reduction in rates as an alternative option [1] - Recent phone conversations between Shigeru Ishiba and Donald Trump have raised expectations for an agreement announcement during the G7 summit [1]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to new restrictions imposed by the U.S. on China, stating that if the U.S. continues to harm China's interests, China will take strong measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [2] International News - The U.S. has shown flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan, while negotiations between the U.S. and India may lead to a temporary agreement on tariff reductions and market access [3] - Spot silver has surpassed $36 per ounce for the first time since February 2012 [3] - The U.S. trade deficit has sharply decreased by 55.5% to $61.6 billion due to a significant drop in imports caused by Trump's tariffs [3] - The European Central Bank's interest rate statement maintains its current stance on future rate paths, with Lagarde suggesting the end of the rate-cutting cycle; the market no longer fully prices in a 25 basis point cut within the year [3]