格隆汇1月22日｜华泰证券研报指出，紫金矿业发布25年业绩预告，测算25Q4紫金归母净利131-141亿 元（Q3146亿元）、扣非归母净利的增长与Q4金属价格上涨事实相符，Q4LME铜均价上涨13%至11047 美元、SHFE 金均价上涨20%至949元/克。公司亦发布26 年产量指引，计划生产矿产铜120万吨、矿产 金105吨、碳酸锂当量12万吨；且24年公司发布五年产量规划，24-28年矿产铜/金产量CAGR均为8- 10%。看好紫金矿业的价值提升，三个逻辑：1）看好铜、金价上行周期。2）公司是铜金、乃至有色龙 头，经营稳健、成长性较强，预期26-27年归母净利增速较高（+57%/+23%）。3）公司整体估值与铜股 相近，黄金价值有望重估。维持"买入"评级。 ...

华泰证券研报指出，紫金矿业发布25年业绩预告，测算25Q4紫金归母净利131-141亿元（Q3146亿 元）、扣非归母净利的增长与Q4金属价格上涨事实相符，Q4LME铜均价上涨13%至11047 美元、SHFE 金均价上涨20%至949元/克。公司亦发布26 年产量指引，计划生产矿产铜120万吨、矿产金105吨、碳酸 锂当量12万吨；且24年公司发布五年产量规划，24-28年矿产铜/金产量CAGR均为8-10%。看好紫金矿 业的价值提升，三个逻辑：1）看好铜、金价上行周期。2）公司是铜金、乃至有色龙头，经营稳健、成 长性较强，预期26-27年归母净利增速较高（+57%/+23%）。3）公司整体估值与铜股相近，黄金价值有 望重估。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights three main reasons for optimism regarding the company: 1) Anticipation of rising copper and gold prices, 2) The company is a leading player in copper and gold, with strong growth potential, expecting a high net profit growth rate of +57% in 2026 and +23% in 2027, 3) The overall valuation of the company is comparable to copper stocks, with potential for a revaluation of its gold assets [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit for Q4 2025 between 131-141 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit between 134-144 billion RMB, reflecting growth aligned with rising metal prices [2]. - The company achieved a copper production of 1.09 million tons in 2025, slightly below the initial guidance of 1.15 million tons, while gold production reached 90 tons, exceeding the guidance of 85 tons [2]. - For 2026, the company plans to produce 1.2 million tons of copper and 105 tons of gold, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-10% for copper and gold production from 2024 to 2028 [2]. Price Forecasts - The report anticipates that gold prices could rise to $4800 per ounce in 2026, driven by a diversification of foreign exchange reserves and a potential decline in U.S. real interest rates [3]. - For copper, prices are expected to exceed $15,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, supported by limited supply growth and increasing demand driven by U.S. inventory and infrastructure development [3]. Valuation Insights - The company's gross profit distribution is estimated at 53% from copper and other metals and 47% from gold, suggesting it can be viewed as a "half gold, half copper" company [4]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable A-share copper stocks is 22X, while for gold stocks it is 29X. The company's A-share valuation is only 21X, indicating potential for a revaluation of its gold assets [4]. Target Prices - The target price for the company is set at 62.40 RMB for A-shares and 66.03 HKD for H-shares, based on a PE ratio of 18/23X for 2026 [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but with high year - on - year growth, price height is restricted by industrial chain profits, the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. [3] - The operation strategy is range trading and covered call options. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the off - season characteristics of the black series are obvious and the macro - expectations are weak. Iron ore is affected by the expected increase in supply and the decrease in demand due to sudden safety incidents. Coupled with the weakening of restocking demand, the price has fallen from a high level. [2] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have entered the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for three consecutive weeks, and before mid - February, they will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. The supply side is in a seasonally contracting phase, but the supply support needs to decline more than expected to increase. As of January 19, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7 million tons. The shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons. [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined slightly but is still at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown a more - than - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, and restocking demand is in the middle stage with a weakening marginal support. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further strengthening safety supervision. [2] Inventory - Steel mill - end imported ore inventory has risen for four consecutive weeks. The pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, and the restocking support is weakening. Port inventory is still accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume. It is expected that with the decline in arrival volume and the increase in restocking demand, the pressure of port inventory accumulation will ease. [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Wenkong Development (sh600058) reached its daily limit with a price of 15.63 yuan, marking a 9.99% increase and a total market capitalization of 16.754 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The reasons for the stock surge include a significant asset restructuring, where the company plans to acquire 100% equity of Wenkong Mining and Luzhong Mining, which will enhance resource reserves and profitability [2] - The company is transitioning from a trading business to a more stable mining development model, aiming to create a complete industrial chain, with the controlling shareholder, China Minmetals Corporation, participating in the asset swap to address competition issues [2] - Market performance indicates that on January 19, 2026, the company's stock was included in the "Dragon and Tiger List" with a trading volume of 1.655 billion yuan, driven by net buying from retail and foreign investors, reflecting increased market attention [2] - Although specific technical indicators were not mentioned, the influx of funds and the situation on the "Dragon and Tiger List" suggest a positive technical signal attracting more investor interest [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of iron ore shows a marginally strengthening pattern. The supply from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually decrease. The demand is still resilient with the total output of five major steel products rising slightly and the daily average hot metal output remaining at a relatively high level. Steel mills are in the pre - holiday stockpiling stage, which will support the iron ore price. Although the futures price has been falling due to news from BHP, the price is expected to rebound after the decline, but the upside space is limited due to high port inventories [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 21, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The main contracts of other steel and iron ore futures also showed different trends, such as RB2605 down 0.35%, HC2605 down 0.06%, and SS2603 up 2.40% [7][5] - In the spot market, on January 21, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.8 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore in Qingdao Port decreased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has been expanding for two consecutive days [9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have declined for two consecutive weeks. The shipment volume last week decreased by 3.691 million tons to 21.641 million tons. The arrival volume decreased by 2.603 million tons to 26.597 million tons last week and is expected to gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of five major steel products increased slightly again last week for three consecutive weeks. The daily average hot metal output decreased slightly to 2.2801 million tons after three consecutive weeks of growth, but it is still 0.035 million tons more than the same period last year, indicating resilient demand [11] - Inventory side: Steel mills have entered the pre - holiday stockpiling stage this week, and the inventory available days increased by 2 days to 21 days compared with last week. The stockpiling is expected to continue until one week before the Spring Festival, which will boost the iron ore price to some extent [11] - News: BHP's acceptance of lower prices in some iron ore transactions has led to a continuous decline in the futures price recently. However, considering the marginal improvement of the fundamentals, the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will support the price, and the price may rebound after the decline, but the high port inventories will limit the upside space [11] 3.2 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said in Davos that he hopes to conduct another round of potential trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China and the US should implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state [12] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development Ni Hong said that this year, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban residential areas, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of small public spaces in cities. The real estate market will be stabilized, and the project company system, the lead - bank system, and the spot - sale system for commercial housing will be promoted [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract in Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volumes at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills' iron ore, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port inventory and dispatch volume of iron ore, the cost of hot metal without tax of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][18][21]

数据来源：海关总署 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国12月进口铝土矿总量达1467万吨，环比下降2.9%，同比下降2.0%。 其中有1136万吨来自几内亚，环比上涨6.1%，同比上涨9.4%。雨季过后，几内亚矿山铝土矿发运和装 运作业陆续恢复，供应量有所回升。不过，作为第二大供应国的澳大利亚输送量环比减近三成。 ...

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 101,020 CNY/ton and closed at 101,280 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous trading day [2] - The night session saw the main copper contract open at 100,550 CNY/ton and close at 100,260 CNY/ton, remaining stable compared to the afternoon close [2] Spot Market - SMM reported that the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper was quoted at a discount of 280 to 80 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average discount of 180 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous day [3] - The price range for electrolytic copper was between 99,820 and 100,300 CNY/ton, with the market showing a clear differentiation in supply [3][15] - Downstream purchasing showed structural characteristics, with leading enterprises actively accepting deliveries, particularly when copper prices fell below 99,500 CNY/ton [15] Important News - The geopolitical situation regarding Greenland has improved, with U.S. President Trump announcing an agreement framework with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, which could benefit the U.S. and NATO members [4] - Economic forecasts indicate that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [4][5] Mining Sector - Rio Tinto reported a copper production of 240,000 tons in Q4 2025, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a total production of 883,000 tons for the year, exceeding the revised guidance [5][17] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is opening its doors to U.S. capital for strategic mineral projects, including copper and cobalt, as part of a new investment initiative [5][17] Smelting and Imports - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a significant premium for spot copper prices compared to future contracts, with the "tom/next" spread reaching its highest level since the 2021 supply squeeze [6][18] - The copper market is experiencing a new round of volatility, with recent prices exceeding 13,400 USD/ton [6][18] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks decreased by 8,875 tons to 159,400 tons, while SHFE stocks fell by 2,612 tons to 145,581 tons [7][19] - As of January 21, domestic electrolytic copper stocks were at 329,400 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from the previous week [19] Strategy - The outlook for copper is neutral, with recent tariffs on semiconductors affecting demand projections for non-ferrous metals [20] - Current copper prices are expected to remain in a range between 99,500 CNY/ton and 110,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and low downstream demand [20]

《方案》提出绿色矿山建设的总体目标、主要任务、进度安排和保障措施，明确到2028年年底，全省 90%的持证在产大型矿山、80%的中型矿山达到绿色矿山标准，鼓励小型矿山积极参与创建；累计建成 18座智能化绿色矿山，推动一批矿山信息化、智能化改造，持续提升矿山"三率"水平，确保绿色矿山数 量质量双提升。 近日，甘肃省自然资源厅联合省生态环境厅、省应急管理厅、省财政厅等17部门印发实施《甘肃省绿色 矿山建设提质增效三年行动工作方案》（以下简称《方案》），进一步推动矿业绿色高质量发展。 《方案》强调，将绿色矿山建设成效纳入领导干部自然资源资产离任（任中）审计，对未完成目标的市 县暂停下一年度矿产资源规划调整；加强评估管理，联合共建部门定期开展评估机构抽查，落实"动态 考核+黑名单"制度。 近年来，甘肃厅通过部门协同、企业主建、第三方评估的多元机制，持续推进全省绿色矿山建设工作。 截至目前，全省已建成绿色矿山194座，其中国家级22座、省级172座。 《方案》提出建立绿色矿山储备库。省自然资源厅每年年初印发年度建设方案并动态调整；动态修订地 方标准，拓展矿种覆盖与细分领域规范，鼓励制定多元标准；强化科技创新，鼓励企业加 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Bullish on iron ore in the black building materials sector [3] Group 2 - Core view: The iron ore market has certain positive factors, and short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [3] Group 3 1. Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [3] 2. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [3] - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a 6.66% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 3.70% increase year - on - year. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, an 8.30% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.53% increase year - on - year [3] - From January 12th to January 18th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.1736 billion tons, a decrease of 816,000 tons from the previous period, slightly lower than the average level in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Market Logic - Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased. Domestic mine production has increased, and port iron ore inventories continue to accumulate. The daily average hot metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week but an increase of 35,300 tons compared to the previous year [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Try short - term long positions and set stop - losses. The support level is lowered to 780, and the resistance level is 844 [3]