交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 今日焦点 | 腾讯控股 | | 700 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 3 季度业绩超预期 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 641.00 | 目标价: 港元 729.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +13.7% | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 年 3 季度业绩：总收入同比增 15%至 1928.7 亿元（人民币，下同 ），高于我们预期 4%，其中游戏+23%/社交+4%/营销+21%/金融企服 +10%。毛利润同比增 22%，继续快于收入增速，毛利率同比优化约 3.3 个百分点至 56.4%，得益于高毛利业务包括本土游戏、视频号和微信搜 索等毛利收入增量贡献以及云服务成本持续优化优化。调整后每股盈利 7.58 元，同比增 19%，高于我们预期 6%。 展望及估值：我们认为，公司仍可维持稳定收入增速及利润增长。2025 年资本支出占收比预计低于 10%，但绝对值仍高于 2024 年，预计约 800 亿元，我们认为其投入主要用于自有产品的迭代升级，并未将算力业务 作 ...

阿里巴巴在目前的美股夜盘交易中拉升涨超5%，在目前的港股市场中，阿里巴巴(9988.HK)一度涨 2%。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日正式宣布"千问"项目，全力进军AI to C市场。据阿里巴巴官方微博，免 费开放，人人可用，阿里巴巴用最强模型打造最佳个人AI助手。不仅能与用户"对话"，更能为用户"办 事"，打造未来的AI生活入口，将陆续覆盖办公、地图、健康、购物等多个生活场景。千问APP公测版 已登陆各大应用商店，网页端与PC版同步开放。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International highlights that Baidu's core advertising business and cash reserves are key factors supporting the company's valuation [1] - Future visibility in cloud business operations, advancements in autonomous driving taxis, and AI-related new business developments are expected to drive a revaluation of the company [1] Financial Analysis - CMB International employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation model, setting a target price of $148.4 for Baidu's U.S. stock [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [1]

消息面上，11月17日，阿里巴巴正式宣布"千问"项目，全力进军AI to C市场。据阿里巴巴官方微博，免 费开放，人人可用，阿里巴巴用最强模型打造最佳个人AI助手。不仅能与用户"对话"，更能为用户"办 事"，打造未来的AI生活入口，将陆续覆盖办公、地图、健康、购物等多个生活场景。千问APP公测版 已登陆各大应用商店，网页端与PC版同步开放。 11月17日早盘，港股三大指数小幅下跌，恒生科技指数跌超0.5%。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规模最大 的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数小幅下跌，持仓股中，携程集团、联想集团、百度集团、比亚 迪电子等领跌，华虹、中芯国际、阿里巴巴等领涨，其中阿里巴巴盘中拉升转涨，此前一度跌近2%。 国投证券认为，海外科技股三季度财报，包括英伟达（11月19日）、阿里巴巴（11月25日）、百度（11 月18日），这些科技巨头的财报所释放的信号，将是对"美股AI泡沫论"的正面回应，同样也会对后续A 股科技股以及全球风险资产能否实现反弹，产生重要影响。 从估值角度看，截至11月14日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数最新估值（PETTM）为22.47 倍，低于全球其他主要科 ...

11月17日，阿里巴巴正式宣布"千问"项目，全力进军AI to C市场。千问App公测版上线，与ChatGPT展 开全面竞争。 港股早盘小幅调整，芯片、AI应用等概念支撑关键指数指数表现，华虹半导体、中芯国际、阿里巴 巴、ASMPT等涨幅靠前，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）小幅震荡，京东、百度等领跌。 阿里计划在未来几个月内推出全面对标ChatGPT的千问APP。改版后的应用将在未来数月逐步增加代理 式AI功能，以支持在淘宝等主要平台上的购物体验。随着企业侧定制大模型渗透率提升、开发者API调 用量快速释放、以及与苹果等潜在生态伙伴的深度绑定，通义千问商业潜力有望快速释放。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock experienced a short-term surge, increasing by over 1% following the announcement of its "Qianwen" project aimed at entering the AI to C market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock rose by 1.55%, reaching HKD 157.3, with a trading volume of HKD 7.021 billion [1] Group 2: Project Announcement - Alibaba officially launched the "Qianwen" project, which is now in public beta, allowing free access for all users [1] - The Qianwen app is designed to serve as a personal AI assistant, capable of engaging in conversations and performing tasks for users [1] - The app aims to create a future AI lifestyle entry point, covering various life scenarios such as office work, navigation, health, and shopping [1] - The public beta version of the Qianwen app is available on major app stores, with a web and PC version also launched simultaneously [1]

| 09988 阿里巴巴-W | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 156.700↑+1.800 +1.16% | | 交易中 11/17 10:10 | | * 2 × 5 × 5 × | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 156.700 | 开盘价 152.300 | 成交量 3998.53万 | | 最低价 152.100 | 昨收价 154.900 | 成交额 61.72亿 | | 平均价 154.361 | 市盈率TTM 18.39 | 总市值 2.99万亿 (m) | | 振 幅 2.97% | 市盈率(静) 21.32 | 总股本 190.89亿 | | 换手率 0.21% | 市净率 2.691 | 流通值 2.99万亿 | | 52周景高 186,200 | 委 比 15.60% | 流通股 190.89亿 | | 52周最低 75.399 | 量 比 3.36 | 每 手 100股 | | 开中最高 304.852 | 股息TTM 1.961 | 股息率TTM 1.250% | | 历史最低 55.702 | 股息LFY 1.961 | 股息率LFY 1.251% | 消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 total revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 192.9 billion yuan, exceeding market consensus and the bank's estimates by 2% and 4% respectively, driven by robust growth in gaming revenue, which rose by 23% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Non-IFRS operating profit increased by 18% year-on-year to 72.6 billion yuan, aligning closely with market consensus and the bank's estimates despite higher-than-expected operating expenses [1] - The bank has raised Tencent's total revenue forecast for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 5%, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth in gaming revenue [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The bank remains optimistic about Tencent's long-term opportunities in the AI sector, considering its diversified application scenarios and large user base [1] - The bank has adjusted its valuation window forward to the fiscal year 2026 and increased the target price from 705 HKD to 760 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

喜欢在论文中寻找产业前瞻趋势，常常为看到的技术进步而激动不已……寥寥数语，一个热衷于科技产 业投资的基金经理形象跃然纸上。化工材料专业出身，2013年开始研究布局新能源，如今逐渐聚焦科技 产业，诺安基金权益事业部副总经理、研究部总经理邓心怡正立足于人工智能（AI）浪潮开启她的投 资新征程。 近日，邓心怡在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，"前瞻再前瞻一些"是令她觉得踏实的超额收益策略。 在产业趋势初露苗头、市场还没有充分定价前进入，能够更稳妥地获得可观回报。与此同时，"读论 文"成为她前瞻性嗅到投资机会的重要法宝。展望未来，她认为，AI有望成为科技产业浪潮中的核心驱 动力，看好该板块蕴藏的丰富投资机会。 邓心怡，曾任职于中国对外贸易信托有限公司，从事投资研究工作。2020年11月加入诺安基金，现任 权益事业部副总经理兼研究部总经理。自2022年7月6日起担任基金经理，现管理诺安稳健回报混合、诺 安平衡混合、诺安优势行业混合、诺安研究优选混合等多只产品。 读论文发现投资机会 中国证券报：可以先简单介绍下你的投资经历吗？ 邓心怡：我最早是在外贸信托公司做自营投资，当时主要研究新能源、新材料、化工环保等，更多是偏 一级 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market in the fourth quarter presents both opportunities and challenges, with the technology sector becoming a key focus for aggressive investment due to the dual concepts of AI and "new productive forces" [1] - On the demand side, the user base for generative AI in China has experienced explosive growth, with local tech companies capturing the majority of market benefits [1] - On the supply side, leading technology firms in Hong Kong are evolving from mere application providers to builders of the industrial chain, covering various sectors including software and hardware, new energy vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, southbound funds have continued to flow in, with a net purchase amount exceeding 1.3 trillion HKD this year, leading to an increasing pricing power of domestic capital [2] - Valuation-wise, the technology sector is significantly undervalued compared to A-shares, and combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the resilience of the domestic economy, the Hong Kong technology sector is expected to achieve excess returns in the fourth quarter [2] - For ordinary investors, direct investment in individual stocks poses high barriers and risks, thus it is suggested to consider participating through related ETFs. The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) closely tracks the National Index of Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, selecting 30 large-cap, high R&D investment tech leaders, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 7%, covering both internet giants like Tencent and Alibaba, as well as emerging players like Li Auto and BeiGene, thus comprehensively covering popular sectors of "software + hardware + new consumption + new energy vehicles" [2]