Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility following the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data, with major indices declining sharply: Nasdaq down 2.24%, Dow Jones down 1.23%, and S&P 500 down 1.6% [3][4] - The non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, the lowest increase since October of the previous year, with substantial downward revisions for May and June, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [6][7] - Following the employment data, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 64%, up from less than 40% prior to the report, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards easing monetary policy [6] Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway's Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported Q2 2025 revenue of $92.515 billion, slightly above market expectations, but down 1.22% year-over-year, with net income falling 59% to $12.37 billion [8][10] - The company continued its trend of stock sales, offloading approximately $6.92 billion in stocks while purchasing only $3.9 billion, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of net stock sales [8][10] - A significant write-down of $3.76 billion was announced for its stake in Kraft Heinz, attributed to non-temporary impairment, reflecting concerns over the company's financial health [8][10] Group 3: Economic and Political Context - The release of the non-farm payroll data led to political backlash, with President Trump calling for the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau head, alleging manipulation of employment figures for political purposes [7] - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment and uncertainties may lead to continued volatility in the market, with Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves of $344.1 billion indicating a cautious investment stance [10][11]

策略报告|投资策略 A 股策略周思考 2025年08月 03日 作者 吴腊达 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524030001 wukaida@tfzq.com 林晨 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524040002 linchen@tfzq.com 型 联系人 wangshuhui@tfzq.com 陈英奇 联系人 chenyingqi@tfzq.com 相关报告 1《投资策略:行业比较周报-震荡期 后续主线的思考》2025-04-26 2 《投资策略:超常规逆周期应对关税 冲击-4 月 25 日政治局会议学习》 2025-04-25 美国非农弱于预期,降息周期有望童信 国内:政治局会议指明积极筹备"十五五",7月 PMI下行 1 )中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议,7 月会议重点为"努力完成全年经 济社会发展目标任务,实现'十四五'圆满收官",政策重心转回对内。落 实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。推进重点行业产能治 理,针对"反内卷"提出细化要求。2）7月生产活动整体回落,制造业 PMI 指数下行,仍处于收缩区间,非制造业 PMI、综合 PMI 指数均回落。供 给 ...

Group 1 - Xiaocai Garden released a profit forecast for H1 2025, expecting a net profit of 360-380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.57%-35.71% compared to the same period in 2024. The growth is attributed to operational efficiency optimization, strict cost control, and refined management [2][12]. - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" officially came into effect on August 1, establishing a licensing system for fiat stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong. This aims to enhance the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities and promote financial innovation [3][13]. Group 2 - JD.com announced a voluntary public acquisition offer for CECONOMY AG at a price of 4.60 euros per share, with a total valuation of approximately 2.2 billion euros (about 18.1 billion yuan). This acquisition is expected to be the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese e-commerce company if successful, with 31.7% of shareholders already committing to the offer [4][15]. - JD.com is accelerating its overseas expansion through a "self-built + acquisition" strategy, focusing on local e-commerce rather than cross-border platforms. The company has seen significant growth in its Ochama brand in Europe, with a 284% year-on-year increase in orders from January to October 2024 [5][17]. Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 3.47% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 4.94% during the week [19][24]. - In the U.S. market, the non-farm payrolls for July increased by 73,000, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [36]. Group 4 - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with the healthcare sector showing a positive growth of 1.82%, while the materials sector faced the largest decline of 5.87% [20]. - Among Chinese concept stocks, the optional consumer sector fell by 4.84%, and the daily consumer sector decreased by 4.31% [27].

每周 一景：新疆 喀拉峻 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 就业的"滞"和价格的"胀"：美联储的两难选择 非农数据：下修幅度超出市场预期。 7月美国非农新增就业数据不及预期，更让市场担忧的是5月和6月数据的大幅下修。从历史上来看，此次非农数据的下 修幅度较为少见，引起了市场对数据质量的疑虑，我们通过与ADP就业数据对比，倾向于认为美国私人部门就业市场确实有所走弱。 中国经济与资本市场发展的熊。形势压力如今已然是共识，股票价格反映的是投资者对未来的预期。也应看到中国转型步伐加快，创新持续涌现；长期利率破 2后，无风险收益系统性下沉；围绕提高投资者回报，资本市场改革纵深提速，"转型牛"得以确立。展望后市股指还有新高，歇脚调整应逆向提高中国仓位。 中国股市"转型牛"的关键动力一：经济转型和新兴业态初露峥嵘。 目前，传统周期动力正在出清、触底和磨底，去库存企稳的能见度在提高。2025年以来， 新技术趋势和新消费动向持续涌现，资本开支开启上升趋势。在"实然"不足的时期，解决问题的"应然"是关键，中国政策的重心向发展倾斜，财政扩表支持 民生、提振消费与改善企业现金流；反内卷的背后是经济治理思路的转变，持续优化和推进是 ...

融通基金李进： 聚焦趋势向上的行业 ◎记者 何漪 近年来，新生代基金经理逐渐崭露头角，融通基金李进就是一个例子。他拥有清华大学工学博士学位， 于2017年7月加入融通基金，从行业研究员起步，覆盖电子、计算机、新能源领域，积累了丰富的研究 经验。 2021年升任基金经理助理后，李进陆续管理融通产业趋势臻选、融通价值趋势、融通产业趋势等多只基 金，逐渐形成了系统的投资框架。以其代表作融通产业趋势臻选为例，截至7月17日，任职以来回报为 51.48%，远超同期业绩比较基准，任职年化回报率为19.15%。 保持均衡持仓 在组合管理上，李进表示，根据市场环境的风险偏好及产业趋势判断，调整价值类资产、成长类资产的 权重比例，控制组合风险；从看好的产业中挑选趋势方向更好的二级或三级子行业，均衡配置分散风 险。同时，持股相对集中，并适度采取逆向投资，在涨幅过高、估值透支时果断减仓。 在操作上，李进表示，基于行业比较时，选出景气度较高的资产，再评估资产的性价比。具体来看，通 过判断行业景气的周期位置、商业模式与壁垒、中长期空间、估值等四个维度进行综合考量，选择合适 的资产进入基金组合。 李进介绍，他的投资目标并非争夺第一，而是 ...

2025年8月3日，第九届立秋演讲「新物种爆炸·吴声商业方法发布2025」在北京798·751园区79罐举行，主题为「刹那涌现」。 场景实验室创始人、场景方法论提出者吴声表示：AI场景革命正在让商业开启哲学生活方式周期，关键是在每个具体场景重建意义坐标。演讲以四个篇 章展开「意义重建」的创新方法：NOW是此刻的连接，FLOW是流畅的人机通感，HERE是超越在场的叙事，EGO是「我」的共识。大会还发布了新物 种爆炸2025「意义重建」的八个预测。 以下为吴声造物特别呈现的「吴声2025年度演讲」全文： ▍01 场景造物，十年刻度 「没有谁在这个世界上拥有自己固定的住所，以及固定不变的外观，没有谁不在盛衰沉浮之中，没有谁不与敌人和邻居交易品性，没有谁不是韶华易逝却 仍未能成熟，没有谁不是在漫长的生存之旅的起点便已筋疲力尽。」本雅明在《弗兰茨·卡夫卡纪念》中深刻写道。这也是新物种爆炸2025汇报的起点。 此刻即此刻，无可置疑。「今天是今天，带着过去所有时间的重量，带着将成为明天一切事物的翅膀。」我们惯常谈论的过去、现在与未来，唯有在刹那 的聚焦中，方能领悟聂鲁达诗篇的真意：诉说情感，也道尽万物缘起。它分明昭示，新物 ...

Group 1 - JD.com announced rewards for children of frontline employees who were admitted to universities, including cash gifts, free campus delivery, and priority employment opportunities [1][2] - Many listed companies have introduced family-oriented benefits, such as flexible working arrangements, maternity subsidies, and educational allowances [2][4] - The sustainability of these benefits, their effectiveness, and fairness to other employees are questioned [3][12] Group 2 - Companies like Haidilao and Ctrip have developed comprehensive welfare systems for employees' families, which include housing subsidies and educational allowances [6][10] - Ctrip has implemented various maternity benefits since 2015, including transportation costs during pregnancy and subsidies for childbirth, with a total investment expected to reach 1 billion yuan [10] - The welfare policies are seen as a way to enhance talent attraction and employee loyalty, contributing to long-term business growth [7][12] Group 3 - The extension of welfare policies to employees' families is part of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations, with a focus on employee well-being [9] - Companies are moving towards multi-layered and diversified welfare systems rather than one-time benefits, aiming to provide comprehensive support [10] - The effectiveness of these welfare policies in retaining employees and enhancing productivity remains uncertain, with some concerns about potential negative effects on employee motivation [12][13] Group 4 - There are concerns about the fairness of welfare policies, particularly if benefits are concentrated on employees with children, potentially alienating those without [12][14] - Companies like Ctrip emphasize inclusivity in their welfare policies, ensuring that all employees have equal opportunities for career development regardless of their parental status [14]

Core Insights - The 22nd ChinaJoy, the largest gaming and entertainment industry event, opened in Shanghai, attracting 743 exhibitors and featuring a total exhibition area of 110,000 square meters with over 280 companies participating [1] Group 1: Baidu's Innovations - Baidu's participation at ChinaJoy showcased its new AI capabilities, including GenFlow, which allows for rapid content creation, significantly reducing the time needed for tasks like scriptwriting [1] - Baidu Wenku (Baidu Library) has transformed into a one-stop AI content acquisition and creation platform, boasting 1.4 billion authoritative documents and 97 million monthly active AI users [2] - The upcoming GenFlow 2.0 version, set to launch in August, will enhance multi-model capabilities and improve user interaction experiences [2] Group 2: Baidu Wangpan's Features - Baidu Wangpan (Baidu Cloud) offers a comprehensive suite of AI features, including an AI camera that allows users to take, edit, and store photos seamlessly, addressing 99% of user needs related to photo management [3] - The "AI Notes" feature has gained popularity among students, automatically generating structured notes and mind maps from learning videos [3] - Baidu Wangpan currently serves over 1 billion users, with total storage exceeding 1,000 billion GB and over 80 million monthly active AI users [3] Group 3: Other Exhibitors and Trends - Other exhibitors like Yike Album and Chengpian are also leveraging AI technology, with Yike Album providing unlimited cloud storage and AI management for images, and Chengpian enabling easy creation of anime-related content [4] - The event highlights the trend of integrating AI into various consumer applications, appealing particularly to younger demographics [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3593.66 points with a weekly increase of +1.67% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11168.14 points with a weekly increase of +2.33% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2340.06 points with a weekly increase of +2.76% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4127.16 points with a weekly increase of +1.69% [1] - The CSI Artificial Intelligence Index closed at 1479.24 points with a weekly increase of +1.72%, aligning with the overall market trend [1] Technology Sector Insights - Dongshan Precision announced an investment of up to $1 billion for a high-end printed circuit board (PCB) project to meet long-term demand in high-performance servers and AI applications [1] - The investment aims to enhance existing capacity and build new capacity, focusing on high-density interconnect and advanced technology products [1] - The PCB industry is shifting towards high-value products, and this investment is expected to strengthen the company's leading position in the PCB sector [1] Alphabet Financial Performance - Alphabet reported Q2 2025 revenue of $96.428 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was $28.196 billion, up 19% year-over-year [2] - The search business generated $54.190 billion in revenue, a 12% increase, with AI Overviews reaching over 2 billion monthly active users [2] - Cloud business revenue was $13.624 billion, a 32% increase, with OpenAI utilizing Google Cloud for ChatGPT services [2] - Capital expenditures are projected to rise from $75 billion to $85 billion in 2025, with further increases expected in 2026 [2] Microsoft Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $76.441 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations [3] - Net profit increased by 24% to $27.233 billion [3] - Azure cloud revenue exceeded $75 billion for the first time, growing 34% year-over-year [3] - Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $24.2 billion, a 27% increase, with full-year capital expenditures around $81.4 billion [3] Meta Financial Performance - Meta's Q2 2025 revenue reached $47.52 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $18.34 billion, up 36% [4] - The company is enhancing advertising efficiency through generative AI, with nearly 2 million advertisers using its AI tools [4] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected between $66 billion and $72 billion, focusing on talent, infrastructure, and AI development [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on PCB, ODM, AIOT, and AIDC sectors for potential investment opportunities [5] - PCB sector is expected to benefit from increased AI server shipments; recommended companies include Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and Shengyi Technology [5] - The semiconductor sector is poised for growth due to trade barriers; recommended companies include Chipone Technology, Aojie Technology, and North Huachuang [5] - AI new consumption scenarios are anticipated to explode; recommended companies include Tailin Micro and Hengxuan Technology [5] - AIDC sector is expected to benefit from major capital expenditures; recommended company is Weichai Heavy Machinery [7] - ODM sector is expected to benefit from domestic AI and Xiaomi's supply chain; recommended companies include Huaqin Technology and Longqi Technology [8]

2025 年 08 月 03 日 莫愁前路 本周上证指数跌 0.94%，沪深 300 跌 1.75%，中证 500 跌 1.37%，创业板指跌 0.74%，恒生指数跌 3.47%。价值风格表现弱于成长风格。本周全 A 日均交易额 18096 亿，环比上周有所下降。本周市场虽然有所回调，但偏股混合型基金指数回 撤仅有 0.39%，机构重仓板块和反杠铃策略继续跑赢市场，符合我们在此前周报《最 佳的选择："创"》和《首次向杠铃超额发起挑战！》的判断：当前以银行-微盘为 代表的极致杠铃策略虽尚存一定绝对收益空间，但超额有效性在下滑，同时以低估 值大盘成长为代表"中间资产"正在出现绝对收益和超额收益的回摆，这点暗示尤其 在今年三季度创业板指+科技科创的占优表现是大概率且可持续的。 对于本周大盘见顶小幅回调，我们认为主要源于海内外重要事件落地后资金止盈的 影响，但科技成长板块的赚钱效应仍存：一方面是 7 月政治局会议的召开对"反内 卷"进行了纠偏，大宗商品和反内卷品种的定价回归理性；另一方面是创新药和光 模块等产业趋势板块，受到海外需求的进一步提振，在本周继续保持强势表现。中 期来看，在中长期资金持续流入稳定市场的背景下 ...