Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 30, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Yuyu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019884), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. Oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecast: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2,800 and 3,300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a historical percentile of 68.5% over 3 years. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2,450 and 2,750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a historical percentile of 0.819 over 3 years [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Trader Inventory Management**: For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3,300 - 3,400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2,850 - 3,000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3,100 - 3,200 [3]. Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Bullish Factors - Port and oil mill soybean inventories continue to rise. With the increase in the operating rate and state reserve auctions, supply in some areas has gradually recovered. There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to tariff disturbances. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [11]. Bearish Factors - After the subsequent arrival of soybeans, the supply will be smoothly connected. The demand side is cautious about long - term stocking, and the near - term demand is mainly based on previous contracts and spot purchases. In April, about 850,000 tons of soybeans arrived at ports, but port clearance delays may affect the final oil mill crushing volume. In May, 1.15 million tons are expected, and in June, 1.05 million tons are expected. Feed mill physical inventories have reached an annual low [6][7][8]. Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,008 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,833 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,964 | - 21 | - 0.7% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,370 | - 29 | - 1.21% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,472 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,588 | - 53 | - 2.01% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,052.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.286 | - 0.0022 | - 0.03% | [9][13] Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 175 (up 26), M05 - 09 is - 131 (down 16), M09 - 01 is - 44 (down 10). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 3,450 (down 50), and the basis is 486 (down 29). - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is - 102 (up 23), RM05 - 09 is - 116 (up 1), RM09 - 01 is 218 (down 24). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2,588 (down 10), and the basis is 0 (up 43). - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread is 852 (down 50), and the futures spread is 376 (up 32) [14]. Import Costs and Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5,443.5196 | - 33.5155 | 0.1024 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3,742.75 | 9.06 | 74.44 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (47%) Cost Difference | - 1,629.3528 | - 3.2149 | - 21.5309 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1,677.4796 | - 33.5155 | - 155.7915 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 236.9058 | - 57.233 | - 0.2086 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 15 | - 125 | - 83 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 9 | - 121 | - 52 | [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The trading volume of the two markets has been continuously declining, with frequent sector rotations and a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The core of domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A - share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and without an obvious and clear policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. Domestic policies are expected to act according to the progress of tariff games and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. As tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday, the market is expected to maintain a cautious attitude for pre - holiday risk avoidance. Important US economic data will be released during the May Day holiday, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and thus disrupt the A - share market. Therefore, it is necessary to be vigilant about the increased volatility of stock indices after the holiday [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 34.226 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary claimed that China is responsible for the escalation of the tariff war. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China has repeatedly made it clear that there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. The tariff war was initiated by the US. If the US wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity. - The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on May 9. The re - issued treasury bonds are 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with the same coupon rate as the previously issued bonds of the same period, which is 1.88% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.21% | -0.35% | 0.23% | 0.7% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.3647 | 3.3464 | 6.492 | 17.8842 | | Trading volume MoM | -0.5073 | -0.3138 | -0.3088 | -0.9018 | | Open interest | 241,073 | 78,771 | 198,932 | 310,352 | | Open interest MoM | -2,958 | -195 | -832 | -5,159 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 2.13 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 102.2083 | | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -34.226 | [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 1.1 J 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 05 0.4 03 02 行仓PCR ITG国贸期 steels HCI生命中 =: F0251925 2025/4/29 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2651. 2252 | | 0. 09 | | 576. 71 | | 32. 91 | | | 沪深300 | 3781. 6188 | | -0.14 | | 2106. 35 | | 125.15 | | | 中证1000 | 5877. 0566 | | -1. 05 | | 2219. 38 | | 194. 95 | | | | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交望 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the interest rate center may decline further. The market generally expects the Fed to restart rate cuts around June, which may also be the window for the central bank to implement monetary easing, with reserve requirement ratio cuts likely to precede interest rate cuts. Given the recent intensifying divergence in the bond market, if the short - end bond futures do not show signs of stabilization, there is a risk of a decline in the long - end. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别上涨0.23%、0.13%、0.01%、0.69%，成交量分别为51372（+1234）、50163（+2563）、34240（+4950）、77545（+604）手 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 decreased, while TS2509 - 2506 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T、TF、TL主力持仓量分别增加5655、1926手，TS主力持仓量减少1495手；各合约前20名多空持仓和净空仓有不同变化 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 240025.IB, 220003.IB, etc. increased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - 7 - year active bonds decreased by 1 - 2bp, and 10 - year yield decreased by 1.65bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 6bp, Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.2bp; silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 16bp, Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.5bp; silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp, Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.9bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 3405 billion yuan and a maturity scale of 2205 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day period [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference, and Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts would be carried out in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity and introduce incremental policies [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 810 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for the second batch this year to support consumer goods trade - in [2]. - The central bank held a meeting to deploy the implementation of the overall statistical system for the "five major articles" of finance [2]. 3.6 Market Performance - On Tuesday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank shifted to net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate rose to 1.75% [2]. 3.7 Key Data to Watch - On April 30, data such as the US April ADP employment, March core PCE price index annual rate, and the week - on - week EIA crude oil inventory are to be released; on May 1, data such as the week - on - week initial jobless claims and April ISM manufacturing PMI; on May 2, the April unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of feed raw materials has increased due to the Sino-US tariff policy, which supports the cost of eggs. However, after the previous strengthening of egg prices, the culling of old hens has slowed down again. Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the newly opened production of laying hens supplemented earlier is gradually increasing, resulting in sufficient egg supply. Meanwhile, as the festival stocking is coming to an end, the purchasing power of downstream terminals has weakened, and egg prices tend to stop rising and decline. From a market perspective, dragged down by the decline in spot prices, the near-term market has also weakened synchronously, and market volatility has increased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2989 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 8 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -5033 lots, down 2340 lots; the monthly spread between September and January contracts is 128 yuan per 500 kilograms, unchanged; the futures open interest of the active contract is 141311 lots, down 16805 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 101 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.22 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 229 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 41 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.35 (with 2015 as the base of 100), down 4.09; the national culled laying hen index is 96.76 (with 2015 as the base of 100), down 21.67; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 4.25 yuan per chick, unchanged; the national new chick index is 138.68 (with 2015 as the base of 100), up 23.55; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.74 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is 0.05 yuan per hen, up 0.01 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.38 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28 yuan; the average age of culled hens nationwide is 510 days, down 6 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.78 yuan per kilogram, down 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.5 yuan per kilogram, down 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.34 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.28 days, up 0.29 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.16 days, up 0.27 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 10714.73 tons, down 506.3 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8996 tons, up 4 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.36 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.25 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.83 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.88 yuan per kilogram, down 0.30 yuan from yesterday [2]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约氧化铝2509,涨跌-3.08%,成交量48.95万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为42143手。 氧化铝期货全合约总计成交58.52万手，比上一日新增23.69万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓20.25万手，比上一日增加1.81万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓26.51万手，比上一日增加3.78万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓26908、中信期货，总持仓15105、东方财富，总持仓14831；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓57356、银河期货，总持仓19436、中信期货，总持仓19043； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东方财富、持仓14193、增仓7205，中泰期货、持仓7812、增仓3155，建信期货、 持仓5973、增仓3124；多头减仓前三名分别是：中辉期货、持仓4313、减仓-3040，东吴期货、持仓4222、减仓-301，东证期货、 持仓9554、减仓-48； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：创元期货、持仓15929、增仓11795，国泰君安、持仓35282、增仓8182，东证期 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约纸浆2507,涨跌-3.47%,成交量24.35万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为2962手。 纸浆期货全合约总计成交32.40万手，比上一日新增10.25万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓13.86万手，比上一日增加9334手。全合 约前20席位空头持仓15.42万手，比上一日增加9625手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓16203、国泰君安，总持仓15814、东证期货，总持仓10808；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓24736、中信期货，总持仓17683、东证期货，总持仓13172； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东方财富、持仓3316、增仓1227，广发期货、持仓3190、增仓812，中信建投、持 仓7173、增仓604；多头减仓前三名分别是：大地期货、持仓2700、减仓-679，国泰君安、持仓10876、减仓-517，中粮期货、持 仓2214、减仓-179； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓13929、增仓2192，大地期货、持仓3461、增仓757，国投期货、 持仓4699、 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约焦煤2509,涨跌-2.36%,成交量30.17万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为47572手。 焦煤期货全合约总计成交34.57万手，比上一日减少8.48万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓20.10万手，比上一日增加1309手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓25.40万手，比上一日增加2706手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓27300、银河期货，总持仓20165、国泰君安，总持仓16499；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓35963、永安期货，总持仓29242、浙商期货，总持仓25698； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓8947、增仓1133，中信期货、持仓26516、增仓727，中泰期货、 持仓5904、增仓675；多头减仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓11966、减仓-1593，东证期货、持仓12487、减仓-70，华安期货、 持仓5168、减仓-22； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓27527、增仓3908，东证期货、持仓24992、增仓3546，浙商期 货、持仓24 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约工业硅2506,涨跌-2.68%,成交量19.99万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 多，差额头寸为14682手。 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓6189、增仓1534，中信期货、持仓17543、增仓1502，银河期货、 持仓6239、增仓867；空头减仓前三名分别是：广州期货、持仓3829、减仓-2651，广发期货、持仓5893、减仓-1832，永安期货、 持仓13964、减仓-773。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年4月29日工业硅主力合约2506持仓数据一览 工业硅期货全合约总计成交33.47万手，比上一日减少1.54万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓27.13万手，比上一日增加4093手。全合 约前20席位空头持仓27.55万手，比上一日增加4970手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓47515、中信建投，总持仓30163、中信期货，总持仓23523；空头前三 席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓52472、中信期货，总持仓30542、中信建投，总持仓25473； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Huawen Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply pressure from the upcoming domestic rapeseed harvest and a significant drop in soybean meal prices [2] - Baicheng Futures notes that the short-term volatility in rapeseed meal prices is not yet over, influenced by fluctuations in the soybean market and stable operating rates at domestic crushing plants [3] - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing long positions ahead of the holiday, as domestic rapeseed inventory is significantly higher than in the same period over the past two years, and new season rapeseed is about to be harvested [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates a faster customs inspection process, leading to a substantial decline in spot soybean meal prices, which in turn affects the rapeseed meal futures market [2] - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to recover significantly in May, with downstream stocking needs being a key focus for the market [3] - The price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently widened to over 900 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in the substitutability of rapeseed meal [4]