Group 1: Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the preferred path for the Federal Reserve is easing, leading to higher long-term interest rates and fluctuating dollar values, with a focus on industry logic and external factors affecting this path [1] - Key factors to observe include the potential negative feedback from AI on interest rates/debt, the performance of non-AI sectors, and external influences such as the yen, Fed independence, and fiscal sustainability impacting the dollar [1] - The outlook for the RMB exchange rate is positive, with expectations of stabilization in earnings and slightly favorable supply-demand dynamics in the equity market [1] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The report suggests that growth sectors still have many highlights, with cyclical opportunities arising from expectations of PPI recovery, indicating a potential rotation in investment focus [1] - From an industry cycle perspective, sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals need to balance valuations amid high prosperity, while power equipment and chemicals are positioned favorably for investment [1] - Short-term trends indicate that small-cap stocks may outperform before the Spring Festival, with industry differentiation possibly expanding or collapsing in a trend [1] Group 3: Fixed Income and Other Assets - In the fixed income market, short-term interest rates have a higher safety margin compared to long-term rates, with a stable short-term rate environment and increased volatility in long-term rates expected [2] - The report notes that the trading opportunities in the bond market may arise from weaker-than-expected external demand or continued declines in real estate prices [2] - Regarding other assets, U.S. Treasury yields are strong, gold remains crowded but has a sustained long-term logic, and oil is expected to be weak in the initial phase of interest rate cuts [3]

2026.01. 11 拉长时间线看， 近一年债券基金平均收益率仅为1.83%，较上年同期近乎"腰斩"，2025年全年中长期纯债基平均 收益率甚至低于货币基金。 与纯债产品普遍承压形成对比，可转债基金表现亮眼，多只产品年内涨幅超20%。 分析认为，收益率回撤主要受利率上行、机构久期错配及股市资金分流等多重因素影响。展望后市，机构普遍认为 债市将进入宽幅震荡阶段，收益率下行空间有限但大幅上行风险可控。在当前市场环境下，采取稳健的票息策略或 比交易型策略更具配置价值。 债基未迎"开门红"，中长期产品成重灾区 债基未能迎来2026年"开门红"。在长端收益率明显上行的影响下，约半数中长期纯债型基金今年以来未能实现正 收益。 本文字数：3115，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 王方然 2026年债券基金开局遇冷，在长端利率上行背景下，全市场超四成纯债型基金未能实现正收益，中长期品种成为 调整"重灾区"， 约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债基中占比接近五成。 市场表现疲软也引发资金显著 流出。 Wind数据显示，全市场4500多只纯债型基金（份额分开计算）中，约1780只基金今年以来回报为零或为负，占 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the Chinese asset management industry in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting its role in supporting high-quality economic development and the need for innovation in financial services [1]. Group 1: Political Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for advancing Chinese-style modernization and building a strong financial nation, with a focus on integrating the spirit of the Party's 20th Central Committee into corporate actions [2]. - The company aims to enhance its high-quality development through deepening party leadership and aligning its operations with national strategies, emphasizing the importance of serving the real economy and capital market [2]. Group 2: Focus on Core Responsibilities - The plan calls for improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, which is essential for enhancing service quality and supporting new productive forces [3]. - The company recognizes the significance of developing equity funds to optimize investor structure and market efficiency, positioning it as a core strategy for product development [3]. Group 3: Stability and Long-term Investment - A stable and healthy capital market is crucial for national financial security, with long-term funds playing a key role in mitigating short-term volatility [4]. - The company is committed to promoting a "long money, long investment" ecosystem to enhance market stability and support rational and value-based investment practices [4]. Group 4: International Competitiveness - The company aims to enhance international competitiveness and create a more open and inclusive capital market, aligning with the national strategy for high-level openness [5]. - It has historically led in launching domestic equity QDII funds and participating in various cross-border investment initiatives, establishing a significant presence in the Hong Kong market [5]. Group 5: Contribution to Key Financial Areas - The company is focused on developing "five major areas" of finance: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, as a means to support high-quality economic development [6]. - It aims to build capabilities that align with these areas, enhancing its investment research capabilities to support technological and industrial innovation [6]. Group 6: Enhancing Financial Services - The company is committed to improving the diversity, adaptability, and accessibility of its services in inclusive finance, with a focus on enhancing customer experience [7]. - It has served over 220 million clients, reflecting a 58% growth over the past five years, and is transitioning towards a buyer advisory model to better meet client needs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "Pudong Bank Risk Hedging 2026 Market Outlook Blue Book" emphasizes the need for a systematic understanding of financial logic, focusing on the interplay of credit, capital, and risk pricing cycles to support high-quality economic development [3][4]. Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, marking an acceleration of 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year, respectively [4]. - The blue book highlights that industrial upgrades and the cultivation of new productive forces are shaping a new growth curve, with industrial added value increasing by 6.2% in the same period [4]. - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5%, aligning with the average annual growth rate of 4.17% needed to achieve the 2035 long-term goals [4]. Financial Market Insights - The fixed income market is expected to see a downward trend in funding price centers, with bond markets likely to experience low-level fluctuations [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the blue book anticipates a favorable environment for the Renminbi due to expected continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improving domestic economic fundamentals [6]. - The commodity market is projected to see increased demand for gold due to geopolitical uncertainties, while the copper price is expected to rise driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations [6]. Company Developments - Since its launch in 2018, the "Pudong Bank Risk Hedging" brand has provided robust financial support for over 26,000 clients, facilitating the internationalization of Chinese enterprises [10]. - The bank aims to enhance its risk management services and expand application scenarios, continuing to promote classic cases of using interbank interest rate derivatives for risk management [10].

倒春寒 2026年债券基金开局遇冷，在长端利率上行背景下，全市场超四成纯债型基金未能实现正收益，中长期品种成 为调整"重灾区"，约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债基中占比接近五成。市场表现疲软也引发资金 显著流出。 拉长时间线看，近一年债券基金平均收益率仅为1.83%，较上年同期近乎"腰斩"，2025年全年中长期纯债基平均 收益率甚至低于货币基金。与纯债产品普遍承压形成对比，可转债基金表现亮眼，多只产品年内涨幅超20%。 分析认为，收益率回撤主要受利率上行、机构久期错配及股市资金分流等多重因素影响。展望后市，机构普遍 认为债市将进入宽幅震荡阶段，收益率下行空间有限但大幅上行风险可控。在当前市场环境下，采取稳健的票 息策略或比交易型策略更具配置价值。 债基未迎"开门红"，中长期产品成重灾区 债基未能迎来2026年"开门红"。在长端收益率明显上行的影响下，约半数中长期纯债型基金今年以来未能实现 正收益。 Wind数据显示，全市场4500多只纯债型基金（份额分开计算）中，约1780只基金今年以来回报为零或为负，占 比达40%。其中，中长期纯债型基金成为下跌主力，约1600只产品未获正收益，在所有中长期纯债 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...

【导读】招聘回暖，外商独资公募基金公司奋力求解人才难题 进入2026年，外商独资公募基金人才招聘有回暖迹象。不过，高管变动加之战略调整，破解人才难题外 资仍需作出较大努力。 外资公募基金招聘回暖 一位长期服务外资机构的猎头公司负责人日前告诉记者，虽然眼下外资基金公司的招聘活动有回暖的迹 象，但是较2019年等历史上最热的时候仍有差距。从目前释放出来的职位来看，中层职位的需求比较 多。他表示，外资公募通常底薪较高，相关岗位仍有一定的吸引力。 记者搜索发现，目前，安联基金正在招聘市场策划部总经理和市场经理；贝莱德基金招聘的职位则含系 统交付和运营以及信息安全等岗位；摩根资产管理在招聘运营控制等相关岗位；摩根士丹利基金在招聘 电商等相关岗位人才；宏利基金则为互联网营销、债券交易员等岗位招聘人才。 对于拿到牌照，正在奋力推进业务的外资公募来说，渠道人才至关重要。一家外资机构负责人表示，在 招聘渠道人才时，他看重公募行业经验，尤其青睐在中资公募基金公司干过，业绩好的渠道人才。渠道 负责人不用会讲英文，他进一步强调道。 不过，作为公募基金行业核心人才类别之一，有业绩的渠道人才是被争抢的对象。华东某公募基金渠道 负责人就表 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 近年来，每次有金融行业人士回上市公司接班，都会引起大家的强烈关注。有网友戏称，无论主角在外 面过得如何，最终都可以回家继承丰厚的家业。 【导读】34岁民生证券投行事业部质控业务原副总裁敖航，出任雪迪龙非独立董事 中国基金报记者 莫琳 又一位投行人士回家接班了！ 1月10日，雪迪龙发布一系列人事变动。其中，聘任敖航先生为公司非独立董事，引来大家关注。 公开资料显示，敖航，出生于1992年。2016年毕业后，从国泰君安证券投资银行部业务助理做起，2020 年8月至2025年7月期间，升任民生证券投资银行事业部质控业务副总裁；2025年7月至今任雪迪龙项目 经理。 值得注意的是，敖航和雪迪龙实控人敖小强先生为父子关系。 2025年7月，科创板上市公司力源科技（维权）发布公告，董事长沈万中因个人原因申请辞职，同时， 公司董事会已提名沈家雯为第四届董事会非独立董事候选人，任期自股东大会审议通过之日起至第四届 董事会任期届满为止。 沈家雯系公司控股股东、实控人沈万中之女，于1990年出生，拥有南加州大学经济学硕士、加州大学伯 克利 ...

【导读】招聘回暖，外商独资公募基金公司奋力求解人才难题 中国基金报记者 吴娟娟 进入2026年，外商独资公募基金人才招聘有回暖迹象。不过，高管变动加之战略调整，破解 人才难题外资仍需作出较大努力。 外资公募基金招聘回暖 一位长期服务外资机构的猎头公司负责人日前告诉记者，虽然眼下外资基金公司的招聘活动 有回暖的迹象，但是较2019年等历史上最热的时候仍有差距。从目前释放出来的职位来看， 中层职位的需求比较多。他表示，外资公募通常底薪较高，相关岗位仍有一定的吸引力。 记者搜索发现，目前，安联基金正在招聘市场策划部总经理和市场经理；贝莱德基金招聘的 职位则含系统交付和运营以及信息安全等岗位；摩根资产管理在招聘运营控制等相关岗位； 摩根士丹利基金在招聘电商等相关岗位人才；宏利基金则为互联网营销、债券交易员等岗位 招聘人才。 对于拿到牌照，正在奋力推进业务的外资公募来说，渠道人才至关重要。一家外资机构负责 人表示，在招聘渠道人才时，他看重公募行业经验，尤其青睐在中资公募基金公司干过，业 绩好的渠道人才。渠道负责人不用会讲英文，他进一步强调道。 不过，作为公募基金行业核心人才类别之一，有业绩的渠道人才是被争抢的对象。华东 ...

专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 陈洪斌对2026年中国经济提了三点建议： 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 汇泉基金总经理陈洪斌出席并演讲。 第一，必要的时候要给老百姓发钱，不能再有原来"不养懒人"的想法，这种想法会制约劳动生产效率， 人工智能的出现要求我们改变这种思维。 第二，要降息。存在负向产出缺口，这在全世界都需要调利率，不调利率会出现更严重问题，会制约增 长。 陈洪斌对2026年中国经济提了三点建议： 第一，必要的时候要给老百姓发钱，不能再有原来"不养懒人"的想法，这种想法会制约劳动生产效率， 人工智能的出现要求我们改变这种思维。 第二，要降息。存在负向产出缺口，这在全世界都需要调利率，不调利率会出现更严重问题，会制约增 长。 第三，发展现代服务业。要大力发展现代服务业，保障普通老百姓生计。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 202 ...