Group 1: Cost and Pricing Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron natural blocks is reported at 5000-5200 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week[2] - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is 5523 CNY/ton with a loss of 323 CNY, while in Ningxia it is 5754 CNY/ton with a loss of 454 CNY[21] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5450-5550 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in the northern region[8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, an increase of 9.45% from last week, indicating a significant supply-demand mismatch[34] - Manganese silicon weekly demand is reported at 125,793 tons, down 0.86% from the previous week, while supply is at 171,885 tons, up 1.15%[64] - The total production of silicon iron in May was 405,200 tons, with an expected increase to 440,000 tons in June due to the resumption of production in Ningxia[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation in the bottoming phase, with weak rebounds but slowing declines[4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains pessimistic due to significant losses and low demand expectations[40] - The recent dialogue between China and the U.S. has alleviated some short-term macro pressures, with a focus on the dual-coke market trends[5]

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows moderate performance with futures stabilizing after a short-term dip, while spot prices in both northern and southern markets range from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26%, and the average daily output is 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from the five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.86% [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market experiences a cautious sentiment despite a slight easing of pessimism, with futures hitting recent lows and showing weak fluctuations [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.33%, and the average daily output is 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon iron from the five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Inventory levels for silicon manganese and silicon iron show mixed trends, with silicon manganese inventory slightly increasing and silicon iron inventory decreasing week-on-week [1] - The overall production of silicon manganese is low due to industry profit impacts, while silicon iron production has dropped to near historical lows due to enterprise losses [1] - Price pressures for both silicon manganese and silicon iron are influenced by factors such as cost, electricity prices, and industrial policies, with a focus on monitoring manganese ore supply [1]

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows signs of stabilization after a short-term dip, with current prices in the northern and southern markets ranging from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a weekly increase of 0.26%, and an average daily output of 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% week-on-week, while inventory levels have slightly increased [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market remains cautious despite a slight easing of pessimism in black commodities, with silicon iron futures hitting recent lows and showing a weak oscillating trend [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a weekly increase of 2.33%, and an average daily output of 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Weekly demand for silicon iron from five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Overall, silicon manganese production is low due to industry profit impacts, while iron water production remains at a high level for the same period, with resilient demand [1] - Silicon iron production has dropped to a near-record low due to enterprise losses, while downstream inventory levels remain low, indicating a need for careful monitoring of electricity prices and industrial policies [1] - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to exhibit oscillating trends, with no operational recommendations for cross-variety and cross-period trading at this time [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the alloy prices were affected by macro - sentiment disturbances and fluctuated following the black sector. The supply of ferrosilicon expanded month - on - month, and production resumed in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The supply of silicomanganese continued to rebound, with production expanding in the northern main producing areas. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased month - on - month, particularly in Inner Mongolia, while silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with obvious inventory accumulation in Ningxia and de - stocking in other regions. The futures inventory of both alloys declined from a high level. Demand, as shown by blast furnace operation and hot metal production, decreased month - on - month and has reached a peak and started to decline, but the seasonal performance of the demand side is better than last year. In terms of cost valuation, the cost centers of both alloys have declined, which may drag down the silicomanganese futures price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both alloys has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures price trends. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, steel mill production rhythms, the impact of weather on global manganese ore shipments, and market sentiment after the arrival of Australian ore this week [4][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon showed a weak trend, closing at 5,206 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 92 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 450,871 lots and an open interest of 89,676 lots, a week - on - week change of - 59,303 lots. The 2509 contract of silicomanganese rebounded slightly, closing at 5,538 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 60 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,192,152 lots and an open interest of 452,001 lots, a week - on - week change of - 30,755 lots [2][8]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions of the country fluctuated. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in the main producing areas was 5100 - 5300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions of the country was 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 6517 - type silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5400 yuan/ton, and that in Guangxi was 5300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: As of this week, the basis of the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon compared to the ferrosilicon spot in Inner Mongolia was - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of the 2509 contract of silicomanganese compared to the silicomanganese spot in Inner Mongolia was - 88 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [13]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2407 and 2508 contracts of ferrosilicon was 74 yuan/ton, a change of - 32 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the 2507 and 2508 contracts of silicomanganese was - 2 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [14]. - **Spread between Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: As of this week, the spot spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon and the 2507 contract of silicomanganese was - 314 yuan/ton, a change of - 156 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the spread between the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon and the 2509 contract of silicomanganese was - 332 yuan/ton, a change of - 152 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply This week, the output of ferrosilicon was 97,300 tons, a month - on - month change of 12,400 tons and a change rate of 14.6%. The weekly operating rate was 32.78%, a change of 2.34 percentage points compared to the previous week. The output of silicomanganese was 171,900 tons, a month - on - month change of 2,000 tons and a change rate of 1.2%. The weekly operating rate was 35.03%, a change of 0.26 percentage points compared to the previous week [2][21]. 3.2.2 Demand The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.65%, a change of - 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week, and their daily average hot metal output was 2.418 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 110,000 tons [2][25]. 3.2.3 Inventory As of June 6, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,780 tons, a month - on - month change of - 7,390 tons compared to half a month ago. The inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 186,600 tons, a month - on - month change of 500 tons compared to a week ago [3][27]. 3.2.4 Profit This week, the profits of both alloys decreased month - on - month, while the silicomanganese's futures profit increased slightly. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the ferrosilicon's main contract decreased to - 387.25 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 221 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the silicomanganese's main contract was - 425.865 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 89.2 yuan/ton. The spot profit of ferrosilicon was - 341.25 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 173 yuan/ton; the spot profit of silicomanganese was - 513.865 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 20.8 yuan/ton [28][29]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material for ferrosilicon, remained at 595 yuan/ton. The port price of manganese ore, the main raw material for silicomanganese, started to decline. The price of semi - coke also decreased, causing the cost center of silicomanganese to decline, while the cost center of ferrosilicon remained relatively stable [33].

Industry Overview - Silicon iron (FeSi) is produced using raw materials such as coke, steel scrap, and quartz in electric furnaces, primarily used as a deoxidizer in steelmaking and as an alloying agent in various steel types [1][6] - The demand for silicon iron has been increasing due to the recovery of the domestic and international economy, with production expected to reach 5.438 million tons in 2024, a nearly 1% increase from the previous year [6][10] Production Capacity and Distribution - As of the end of 2024, China's silicon iron production capacity is projected to exceed 8 million tons per year, indicating potential overcapacity and intensified market competition [6][8] - The production is highly concentrated in regions rich in energy and resources, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, with Inner Mongolia's share rising from 27.2% in 2022 to 32% in 2024 due to its green energy initiatives [8][10] Market Pricing - The price of silicon iron in China showed a downward trend in 2024, decreasing from 6,661.43 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 6,024.29 CNY/ton by the end, a decline of approximately 9.56% [10] - Factors influencing price fluctuations include demand weakness, production adjustments, and changes in raw material costs [10] Import and Export Dynamics - China remains a net exporter of silicon iron, with imports in 2024 reaching 82,900 tons, a 40.51% increase year-on-year, driven by demand for high-end specialty silicon iron products [12] - Exports slightly increased to 428,800 tons in 2024, marking a 5.43% growth, while net export volume and trade surplus showed cyclical fluctuations [12] Competitive Landscape - The silicon iron industry in China is characterized by an oligopolistic structure with regional concentration, where companies leverage local resource advantages to enhance competitiveness [14][18] - Companies like Ordos, with an annual production capacity of 1.6 million tons, dominate the market due to their integrated coal-electricity-silicon iron production model [14][18] Development Trends - The industry is shifting towards high-end and specialized products, with increasing demand for high-purity and specialty silicon iron alloys driven by advancements in downstream applications [20] - Environmental policies are pushing the industry towards greener practices, with companies adopting technologies to reduce energy consumption and emissions [21] - The global market is becoming more competitive, with rising trade barriers and the emergence of new production regions, prompting companies to diversify their export markets and localize production [22]

5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is mainly driven by raw materials, and although it is boosted by the short - term rebound of coking coal, there is limited room for a substantial increase in coking coal due to the overall supply - demand imbalance in the raw material market and the approaching traditional off - season [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to rebound along with industrial products, but the rebound amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal, and the trend may not be strong, with decreasing volatility [21]. - Coking coal has a short - term rebound demand, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Coke has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions, but lacks the conditions for bottom - fishing [3][36]. - The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is weakening, but the cost side is bearish. It is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The further decline of the disc price requires price cuts by alkali plants or rapid inventory accumulation [69][70]. - The glass market has weak short - term fundamentals and cost support. Although the valuation is relatively low, it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The price of steel is mainly affected by raw materials. The short - term rebound of coking coal boosts steel prices, but in the traditional off - season with a tendency of decreasing hot metal and an overall oversupply of raw materials, coking coal lacks a substantial upward driving force [3]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2951, 2952, and 2959 respectively, showing different changes compared with the previous day. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3075, 3072, and 3077 respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Market sentiment has slightly recovered. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened month - on - month, with increased shipments and a possible shift from de - stocking to slight inventory accumulation. The iron ore price is expected to rebound with industrial products, but the amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal [21]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 665, 646.5, and 701 respectively. The daily average hot metal output in the week of May 30, 2025, was 241.91, showing a week - on - week decrease [22][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Some mines have reduced production, but large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The downstream coking profit is damaged, and the raw material replenishment willingness is poor. The import window is expected to be difficult to open, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been frequently declining [36]. - **Coke**: Steel mills in Tangshan have initiated a third - round price cut. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, but the cost support is loose, and it is not suitable for bottom - fishing [36]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 813, and the coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 56. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1315, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port) was - 27 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure on the supply side is small. However, the cost side is bearish, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 284, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 [58][59]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The soda ash production has recovered, and the overall maintenance volume from May to June is lower than expected. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The demand is stable, and the photovoltaic sector tends to return to an oversupply pattern [69][70]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1203, and 1196 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The spot market of glass remains weak, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by nearly 10%. The disc price is approaching the level of full - industry chain losses, and it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1075, 963, and 1018 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5196, down 0.65%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, and the cost support is weakened by the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The demand expectation for steel is generally weak. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 5, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5482, up 0.48%. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' production cut has led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The raw material cost side has seen some changes, and the market sentiment has improved. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,482.00元/吨，环比下降20.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,196.00元/吨，环比下降62.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为662,411.00手，环比增加6350.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为467,642.00手，环比增加24317.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 27,364.00手，环比增加264.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 12,793.00手，环比增加6345.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为32.00元/吨，环比下降8.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为8.00元/吨，环比下降4.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为102,183.00张，环比下降1064.00张；SF仓单为15,836.00张，环比下降375.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,260.00元/吨，环比下降40.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5500.00元/吨，环比无变化；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,230.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500.00元/吨，环比无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,170.00元/吨，环比下降80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5515.00元/吨，环比下降101.68元；SF主力合约基差为 - 26.00元/吨，环比下降18.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加20.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为31.00元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为970.00元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为640.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为407.00万吨，环比下降13.50万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为34.77%，环比增加0.59%；锰硅供应为169,925.00吨，环比增加4725.00吨 [2]. - 硅铁企业开工率为30.44%，环比增加0.02%；硅铁供应为84,900.00吨，环比下降4000.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为201,100.00吨，环比下降6000.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为7.51万吨，环比增加0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.15天，环比下降0.29天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.20天，环比下降0.24天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为126886.00吨，环比增加296.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20574.50吨，环比下降125.50吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.89%，环比增加0.22%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.67%，环比下降0.63% [2]. - 粗钢产量为8601.90万吨，环比下降682.24万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 山东省工业和信息化厅对石横特钢集团有限公司从菏泽富海能源有限公司转入7万吨焦化合规产能指标进行公示 [2]. - 2025年全国计划新开工改造城镇老旧小区2.5万个，1 - 4月份新开工改造5679个 [2]. - 5月深圳全市二手房录得5727套，环比下降13.2%，同比增长17.6% [2]. - 印尼考虑购买中国歼 - 10战斗机和美国F - 15EX战斗机 [2]. - 欧洲央行正式批准保加利亚使用欧元的申请，使其成为欧元区第21个成员国 [2]. - 商务部等五部门计划开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动 [2].

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月5日 | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3090 | 20 | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 200 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3240 | 3200 | 40 | 270 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2966 | 2910 | ટેર | 144 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2974 | 2928 | 46 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2970 | 2905 | ર્શ્ટ | 140 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3200 | 3170 | 30 | 110 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3130 | 3100 | 30 | 40 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3240 ...

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5130 -50 -120 5390 主力合约 5258 62 -194 内蒙#72 5200 -50 -120 5500 01合约 5158 62 -236 青海#72 5200 0 -100 5530 05合约 5174 46 -248 陕西#72 5150 0 -100 5450 09合约 5146 66 -198 陕西#75 5800 0 -100 主力月基差 132 -112 74 江苏#72 5480 0 0 1-5月差 -16 16 12 天津#72 5500 100 -50 5-9月差 28 -20 -50 天津#72 1055 0 0 9-1月差 -12 4 38 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 硅铁合格块 贸易商价 品种 项目 铁合金早报 价格 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 202 ...