Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "weak and volatile" rating for both the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the closing price of SiFe2509 is 5696, down 312 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 487,970 and an open interest of 169,660; SiFe2510's closing price is 5684, down 306, with a trading volume of 41,866 and an open interest of 43,123. For manganese ferroalloy, MnSi2509's closing price is 5946, down 170, with a trading volume of 536,181 and an open interest of 299,149; MnSi2510's closing price is 5956, down 166, with a trading volume of 27,806 and an open interest of 25,424 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, down 50; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 96 yuan/ton, up 262; that of manganese ferroalloy is - 196 yuan/ton, up 120. The near - far month price difference of silicon ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 is - 146 yuan/ton, down 14; that of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 is - 82 yuan/ton, up 10. The cross - variety price difference of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 is 250 yuan/ton, up 142 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On July 31, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5500 - 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5750, in Qinghai 5550 - 5650 (+50), in Gansu 5600 - 5700 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5700 - 5800 (+50); the price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5850 - 5900, in Qinghai 5850 - 5900, in Gansu 5850 - 5900, and in Inner Mongolia 5900 - 5950 (+50). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 6000 - 6100 (-50) yuan/ton [2] - **Production News**: In July, the production of silicon - manganese in traditional southern production areas showed obvious differentiation. The production in Guizhou and Guangxi with no electricity price advantage continued to decline. Although there were individual factory resumptions in Guangxi and Guizhou at the end of July, the production recovery was slow. Yunnan entered the wet season with good production. The silicon - manganese production in Guangxi was about 2.69 million tons, in Guizhou about 2.73 million tons, and in Yunnan about 5.75 million tons. In July, the overall production of silicon - manganese in the northern region increased, with factories in Shandong, Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Henan resuming production or increasing production. The silicon - manganese production in Ningxia was about 19.55 million tons, in Inner Mongolia about 43.75 million tons, and in other northern regions about 8.66 million tons. The total production of all grades of silicon - manganese in July was about 89.27 million tons, an increase of nearly 6 million tons compared with June. The total production from January to July was about 602.29 million tons (compared with 607.67 million tons in the same period in 2024) [2][4] - **Manganese Ore News**: According to the Q2 2025 report of Comilog, the production of manganese ore and sintered ore in Q2 2025 was 1.764 million tons, a 1.18% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 10.6% increase year - on - year; the transportation volume was 1.659 million tons, a 19.7% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.41% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the alleviation of logistics challenges at Owendo Port, with the transportation volume reaching 600,000 tons in June, while railway transportation remained the main pressure point in the logistics chain. In the first half of 2025, the mine production was 3.5 million tons (+1%), and the transportation volume decreased to 3 million tons (-5%). The FOB cash cost of manganese ore business activities in the first half of the year was 2.3 dollars/ton - degree. Considering the logistics challenges in the first half of the year, the manganese ore transportation volume target for 2025 was adjusted to 6.5 - 7 million metric tons [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is - 1, and that of manganese ferroalloy is - 1, indicating a weak outlook for both [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest prices of 72% FeSi in different regions vary, with prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi at 5600, 5600, 5600, and 5550 respectively, and prices of 75% FeSi in Shaanxi at 5950. There are also price differences among different contracts and bases, such as the main contract at 5696, and the main monthly basis at 204 [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The closing price of the main contract of CZCE silicon manganese, basis differences in different regions, and price differences between different varieties are presented, like the main contract closing price, Jiangsu basis, and north - south price difference [5]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China, their capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the export prices of 72% and 75% FeSi at Tianjin Port are shown. The production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China has different trends from 2021 - 2025 [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The production of silicon manganese in China, the procurement price and quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the prices of manganese ores from different origins are included. The production of silicon manganese in China has shown different values from 2021 - 2025 [5]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data includes the production of crude steel in China, the price and production of metal magnesium, the export quantity of silicon iron, and the procurement of Hebei Iron and Steel Group. The production of crude steel in China has different pre - estimated values from 2021 - 2025 [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand data involves the demand in China (by Steel Union's caliber), the export quantity, and the production of crude steel in China. The demand in China has been changing from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions are provided. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China has different values from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, as well as the inventory average available days in China are presented. The warehouse receipts of silicon manganese in China have shown different trends from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data includes electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has changed from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract, are shown. The profit in Inner Mongolia has different values from 2021 - 2025 [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals of the black building materials market remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for product prices [3]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.31%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85,034 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 213,107 lots to 1.816026 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton (-2.67%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57,772 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 139,278 lots to 1.433936 million lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The export competitiveness has weakened, and this week's export volume has significantly declined. Rebar speculative demand has decreased significantly, resulting in inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand has slightly increased, production has risen rapidly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 779.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.27% (-10.00), and the position changed by -32,551 lots to 419,600 lots. The weighted position was 942,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.99% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing, Australian shipments increasing, Brazilian shipments slightly declining, and non - mainstream country shipments falling to a low level this year. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 2.4071 million tons. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 5.19% at 5,696 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 304 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: The short - term price fluctuations of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have intensified. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On July 31, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 5.65% at 8,760 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton; the 421 market price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 590 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Suggestion**: It is expected that the short - term price will maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals are still oversupplied, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 8 yuan to 1,267 yuan, and in Central China, it remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan. The national floating glass inventory decreased by 2.397 million heavy boxes to 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 60 yuan to 1,240 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 0.68%. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5700 150 150 6000 主力合约 6008 -102 176 内蒙#72 5650 100 150 6000 01合约 6140 -76 224 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 品种 项目 库存 成本利润 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 ...

期货热点追踪 乌兰察布产业联盟和铁合金行业协会发布联合声明，反映行业在"反内卷"政策下的自律倾向，为何硅 铁、锰硅却高开低走？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铁合金行业市场供需态势及投资前景研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年5月中国铁合金出口数量为6万吨，同比下降34.8%，出口金额为1.2亿美 元，同比下降34.3%。 ...

硅铁价格继续提涨，铁合金协会响应国家反内卷政策，硅铁能否再次延续涨势？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].