Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for aluminum has cooled, the supply surplus of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan, down 635 yuan from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,088 dollars, up 102 dollars from a week ago. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 10.66%, down 0.36% from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,863 yuan, down 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan, down 450 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest increased [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 718,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 90,200 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 499,800 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,693 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The three - place inventory totaled 44,082 tons, down 257 tons from the previous trading day [1] Other Information - 1000 enterprises are suing the US government, demanding the refund of 133 billion dollars in tariffs, and the US Supreme Court may make a final decision this week, which has a profound impact on global supply chains and trade policies [3] - The annual re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) starts after the market on January 8th and lasts until the 14th. TD Securities predicts that 7.7 billion dollars of silver sell - off will flood the market in the next two weeks, which may cause a significant price correction. Aluminum is among the commodities under relatively large re - balancing selling pressure [3]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the current state of aluminum and alumina prices, market trends, and inventory levels, indicating a cautious outlook for the industry [7][17]. Group 1: Aluminum Market Data - As of January 8, 2026, the A00 aluminum price in East China is 24,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 140 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - The main aluminum futures contract opened at 24,350 CNY/ton and closed at 23,725 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 563,137 lots [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 714,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period [2]. Group 2: Alumina Market Data - On January 8, 2026, the alumina price in Shanxi is 2,655 CNY/ton, while in Shandong it is 2,585 CNY/ton, and in Guangxi it is 2,735 CNY/ton [3]. - The main alumina futures contract opened at 2,923 CNY/ton and closed at 2,863 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 46 CNY/ton [3]. Group 3: Aluminum Alloy Market Data - The procurement price for civilian aluminum is 17,700 CNY/ton, and for mechanical aluminum, it is 18,000 CNY/ton, both showing a decrease of 300 CNY/ton from the previous day [4]. - The total theoretical cost for aluminum alloy is 22,988 CNY/ton, with a theoretical profit of 312 CNY/ton [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The aluminum market is experiencing a rapid price correction after a previous increase, with traders holding back due to high premiums, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream consumers [7][17]. - The alumina market continues to face oversupply, with increasing social inventory and a lack of upward price momentum due to sufficient raw material reserves at electrolytic aluminum plants [7][17]. Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for aluminum is cautiously bullish, while for alumina, it is cautiously bearish, and for aluminum alloy, it is cautiously bullish [8][18].

Group 1 - The company currently produces aluminum profiles for photovoltaic applications but has not engaged in aluminum profiles for 6G infrastructure [1] - The aluminum materials for battery trays and other components related to new energy vehicles are not directly supplied to automotive manufacturers, but rather to their second and third-tier suppliers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Alcoa Corporation (AA.US) has declined over 6% following a downgrade by JPMorgan to "Sell" while raising the target price from $45 to $50 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, Alcoa's stock is trading at $58.65, reflecting a drop of over 6% [1] Group 2: Analyst Rating and Price Target - JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson has downgraded Alcoa's rating to "Sell" [1] - The target price for Alcoa has been increased from $45 to $50 [1] Group 3: Market Concerns - There is uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, which may impact the company's performance [1] - The stock is considered to have a relatively high valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiang Tao has resigned from his positions as Executive Director and Deputy General Manager of China Aluminum Corporation, effective January 8, 2026, due to work requirements [1][4][5]. Group 1: Resignation Details - Jiang Tao submitted his resignation letter to the board of directors on January 8, 2026, and will no longer hold any positions in the company or its subsidiaries after his resignation [1][4]. - The board of directors has approved the nomination of Zhang Ruizhong as a candidate for Executive Director and Guo Gang as a candidate for Non-Executive Director, which will be submitted for election at the shareholders' meeting [1][4][9]. Group 2: Impact of Resignation - Jiang Tao confirmed that there are no disagreements with the board of directors regarding his resignation, and it will not affect the board's operational capacity or the company's production and operations [7]. - The company will complete the director replacement process in accordance with legal procedures and fulfill its information disclosure obligations promptly [7]. Group 3: Candidate Profiles - Zhang Ruizhong, 53, currently serves as the General Manager and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the company, with extensive experience in non-ferrous metal smelting and materials engineering [13]. - Guo Gang, 56, is nominated as a Non-Executive Director and has a rich background in auditing and corporate management, having held various positions within the company and related organizations [14].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley downgraded the rating of Alcoa from "Neutral" to "Underweight" [1] - The target price for Alcoa was raised from $45 to $50 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa's rating from "Neutral" to "Underweight" due to concerns over valuation after a significant increase in the company's stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Rating Change - The rating for Alcoa was downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underweight" by Morgan Stanley [1][2]. - Analyst Bill Peterson raised the target price from $45 to $50 per share, indicating approximately a 20% downside from Wednesday's closing price [1][2]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Prior to the downgrade, Alcoa's stock had performed strongly, surging 74% over the past year [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ming Tai Aluminum Industry (601677) has established a comprehensive ecosystem for battery materials, including battery structural components, liquid cooling plates, and aluminum-plastic film foils, and has passed supplier audits from leading battery manufacturers [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has developed a complete product matrix in the core battery structure field, including battery shell materials, high-strength cover plates, separator materials, and PACK frames, which are supplied in bulk [1] - The company has launched series of aluminum alloy brazed composite materials, such as 3/4 and 4/3/7, achieving full-scenario coverage for new energy thermal management [1] - The self-developed aluminum-plastic film aluminum foil products meet the complex appearance requirements of solid-state batteries [1] Group 2: Market Position - Currently, new energy battery products account for approximately 15% of the company's total sales [1] - After processing by downstream manufacturers such as Keda Li (002850) and Guoxuan High-Tech (002074), the products are supplied to leading mainstream battery manufacturers [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and a demand off - season. The aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation due to positive macro expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the market is in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 635 yuan/ton to 23,725 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 30,668 lots. The LME aluminum price decreased by 54.5 dollars/ton to 3,074.5 dollars/ton, and the inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 501,750 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.72 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 61,525 lots [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 22,585 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 390 lots. The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy in the SHFE increased by 539 tons to 69,737 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals A00 aluminum increased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals AOO aluminum decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton. The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals remained at 0 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy increased by 405 yuan/ton to 1,115 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 865 yuan/ton to 415 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 75 yuan/ton to - 278 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month increased by 27.30 million tons to 813.80 million tons, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 85.00%, and the demand decreased by 24.27 million tons to 705.96 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 350 yuan/ton to 18,550 yuan/ton, and in Shandong metal scrap increased by 400 yuan/ton to 17,850 yuan/ton [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 4,396.16 tons to 162,756.17 tons, and the export volume increased by 39.07 tons to 71.53 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 1.00 million tons to 17.00 million tons, and the import volume increased by 4.31 million tons to 23.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12.00 million tons to 4,536.20 million tons, the production of primary aluminum imports decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 146,109.72 tons, and the exports increased by 28,474.13 tons to 53,047.69 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.00 million tons to 57.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70.00 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index decreased by 0.52 to 91.90, and the automobile production increased by 24.00 million vehicles to 351.90 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58 percentage points to 19.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 1.61 percentage points to 17.06% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 0.0268 percentage points to 27.94%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0324 to 1.54 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month, reaching the highest in 2025 [2] - In December 2025, China's passenger car market retail sales were 2.296 million vehicles, down 13% year - on - year and up 3% month - on - month. The new energy vehicle market retail sales were 1.387 million vehicles, up 7% year - on - year and up 5% month - on - month, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4% [2] - In December 2025 in the US, the private - sector employment in ADP data increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In November 2025, the JOLTS job openings in the US dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market - expected 7.6 million [2] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, and the core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%. The market expects the European Central Bank to remain unchanged in the long - term [2] - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that aluminum oxide prices are experiencing a decline, with the main contract closing at 2863 yuan, down 46 yuan or 1.58% [1] - The trading volume for aluminum oxide contracts decreased significantly by 602,829 contracts, a drop of 28.13%, while open interest increased by 62,111 contracts, up 8.44% [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2730-2780 yuan per ton, East China between 2640-2680 yuan, Southwest between 2765-2805 yuan, and Northwest between 2915-2955 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, there is a slight reduction in production, but expectations of a decrease in January production have already been priced in, leading to a divergence between futures and spot prices [2] - The latest warehouse data shows an increase in aluminum oxide inventory from 2089 tons to 155,000 tons, indicating weak demand [2] - Overall, despite expectations of production cuts due to losses, supply remains excessive, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing funds to exit the market, putting pressure on aluminum oxide futures prices [2]