Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the current market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price drop". When the futures rebound, it creates a hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but the price will eventually fall back due to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upwards at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downwards in the fourth quarter due to the end of technological transformation and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.3% and a historical percentile of 27.1% in the past three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the trading volume is 764,028 lots, down 250,530 lots or 24.69%; the open interest is 342,146 lots, down 14,015 lots or 3.94%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 66,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.15%; the trading volume and open interest remain unchanged [10]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread is 760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 5.56%; the LC09 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 17%; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or - 15% [13]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores show different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 5 - 5.5%) is 4,975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.40%; the average price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 690 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars or - 0.36% [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also have different changes. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan or 0.40% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current value of the battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 12.02% [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also show different changes. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.18% [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, such as the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is 400 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 500 yuan/ton [29]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 11,204 lots, down 1 lot from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi's warehouse receipts decreasing by 20 lots, and Suining Tiancheng's increasing by 120 lots [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased with the improvement of industry expectations, driving up the quotation of lithium ore prices, and the hedging opportunities in the futures market have also increased the demand for raw materials from lithium salt plants. However, the industry's supply is still under pressure, with high inventory levels, and downstream inventory - building willingness is relatively cautious. Therefore, current lithium price trading should be treated with caution. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. - The recommended operation is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,519 hands, down 30,622 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 342,146 hands, down 14,015 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,203 hands/ton, down 1 hand. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons per month, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons per month, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons per month, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The production of power batteries is 129,200 MWh per month, up 5,700 MWh. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 205,000 units, down 7,000 units. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 155,979 contracts, up 22,108 contracts; the total put position is 60,607 contracts, up 8,513 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 38.86%, down 0.0577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0460 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new - energy vehicles were newly registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86%, accounting for 44.97% of newly registered vehicles. - An A - share lithium mining enterprise executive said that the company's focus has shifted to cost reduction and control, and the current lithium price is still below most manufacturers' break - even lines. - The global power battery installed capacity increased by 110% year - on - year, and overseas shipments accounted for 30%. [2]

Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 opened at 64,300 yuan/ton and closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.71% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,014,558 lots, and the open interest was 356,161 lots, an increase of 33,301 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 600,972 lots, an increase of 9,072 lots. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 4,747 lots to 502,065, and the overall speculation degree was 0.84. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 11,204 lots, a decrease of 399 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong upward trend yesterday, opening higher, oscillating and surging, with bulls dominating during the session and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the session, finally closing up 3.71% [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 63,500 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Strategy - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly affected by news disturbances from Jiangxi's mining end and short - term warehouse receipt cancellations. July warehouse receipts need to be compulsorily cancelled, and there are few newly registered warehouse receipts currently, resulting in significant short - term delivery games, which have a greater impact on near - month contracts. The impact of the Jiangxi mining end disturbance on subsequent mining is not clear, and its short - term impact on supply and demand is relatively limited. Currently, the supply and demand are still relatively loose [2]. - In the medium to long term, there has been no substantial change in the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, and recent policies have little impact on it. The rebound height should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the impact of mining end disturbances. If the production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is affected, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate will change [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wait and see for near - month contracts, and sell and hedge on rallies for far - month contracts. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulatory changes regarding lithium mining in Yichun City are expected to have significant long-term implications for the lithium market, including potential cost increases and heightened price support due to stricter compliance requirements [1][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - On July 7, 2025, Yichun City Natural Resources Bureau mandated eight lithium mining companies to complete mineral type change reserve verification reports by September 30, following an audit that revealed unauthorized approvals for lithium mining under the guise of "ceramic soil mining" [1]. - The companies have indicated that the current production operations will not be affected in the short term, as the new regulations are seen as long-term compliance measures [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The reclassification of these mines as lithium mines may lead to increased operational costs, including the need to pay royalties based on lithium mining standards and potential back payments for price differences, which could elevate the marginal cost of lithium extraction in Jiangxi [3]. - The tightening of regulations and the involvement of the audit authority have raised market sentiment, creating a bullish atmosphere as uncertainties in supply increase [4]. Group 3: Follow-Up Actions - It is crucial to monitor the actual production status of the affected mines, the outcomes of mineral type recognition, and any supplementary payment details that may arise from these regulatory changes [5]. Group 4: Involved Companies - The companies impacted by these regulatory changes include Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. (CATL), Yichun Guoxuan Mining Co., Ltd., Yichun Shengyuan Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., and several others [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.29%, IH fell 0.46%, IC fell 0.3%, and IM fell 0.2% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 83,463 lots, 49,239 lots, 57,299 lots, and 134,671 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 19,160 lots, 14,582 lots, 14,672 lots, and 28,320 lots respectively [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The central bank's data shows that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy is obvious [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were 4009, 3995.4, 3985.8, and 3955.2 respectively, with declines of 0.29%, 0.30%, 0.33%, and 0.41%. The trading volumes decreased by 25,073 lots, 2028 lots, 47,192 lots, and 9170 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 12,573 lots, + 2405 lots, - 8205 lots, and - 787 lots respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were 2751.8, 2748.6, 2747.4, and 2750 respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.53%, 0.50%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes decreased by 13,916 lots, 1026 lots, 30,394 lots, and 3903 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 6696 lots, + 221 lots, - 7554 lots, and - 553 lots respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were 6008.4, 5951.4, 5897.6, and 5774.6 respectively, with declines of 0.30%, 0.36%, 0.39%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes decreased by 20,355 lots, 1770 lots, 25,404 lots, and 9770 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 13,063 lots, + 3845 lots, - 4713 lots, and - 741 lots respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were 6442.2, 6373.4, 6302.2, and 6120.8 respectively, with declines of 0.20%, 0.29%, 0.30%, and 0.28%. The trading volumes decreased by 31,955 lots, 6153 lots, 75,947 lots, and 20,616 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 14,229 lots, + 6035 lots, - 13,493 lots, and - 3322 lots respectively [1]. 3.2. Positions of the Top 20 Members - For IF contracts, in IF2507, long - orders decreased by 9620 lots with a net change of - 14,538 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,048 lots with a net change of - 15,421 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, in IH2507, long - orders decreased by 5448 lots with a net change of - 12,265 lots, and short - orders decreased by 6088 lots with a net change of - 12,841 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2507, long - orders decreased by 9785 lots with a net change of - 11,634 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,069 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long - orders decreased by 10,792 lots with a net change of - 20,778 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,998 lots with a net change of - 19,506 lots [5]. 3.3. Important Drivers - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The central bank said the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious [6]. - The central bank's deputy governor said that the monetary policy is moderately loose, and the policy state is supportive with accumulated effects. Since 2020, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and the policy interest rate 9 times [7]. 3.4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. A - share trading volume was 1.48 trillion yuan, down from 1.74 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.27%. The Nasdaq set a new closing record [8].

碳酸锂突发事件点评 20250714 摘要 宜春云母矿矿权审批归属问题是历史遗留问题，最初按陶瓷土矿设立， 现需重新评估锂云母矿归属，但文件不会导致在产矿山停产或增加成本， 市场异动主要受情绪扰动影响。 4 月碳酸锂期货下跌后，碳酸锂股票表现出较好的抗跌性，市场情绪推 动股价上涨。目前可配置锂矿股，但需注意合理价位，避免在情绪高点 进入，因供需基本面未发生明确变化。 短期数据显示，价格反弹带动产量上涨，库存也在积累。淡季强需求预 期支撑价格，但供需基本面短期内仍在恶化。若后续需求未能验证，价 格可能下跌，建议选择合理价位配置股票。 等待商品价格回落后出现负反馈，如海外锂矿项目停产等事件性刺激， 再进行修复。关注今年旺季需求及供给端反应。 预计 2025 年下半年将有多头逼仓、反内卷及小作文情绪等事件性催化 因素，资金面和情绪面影响将商品价格从 6 万元拉升至 6.8 万元。 当前价格对冶炼厂和矿端较为舒适，冶炼厂可通过套保锁定成本，金属 端得到喘息机会。此次反弹可能延长产能出清时间点。 目前是布局锂板块底部机会的好时机，但必须选择合理价位进行布局， 并重点关注后续变化。 Q&A 宜春市对锂矿矿权进行停产整改的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year, M2 by 8.3%, and loan balance by 7.1%. The marginal improvement in credit was due to policy stimulus and the low base in June 2024. Future credit expansion is expected with new policy stimuli [6]. - For lithium carbonate, macro - policy disturbances have become the core driver. Despite an oversupply situation, the market may see increased volatility due to macro - sentiment and potential warehouse - receipt issues [7][8]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be short - term volatile and strong. It is recommended to hold light short positions in the 2510 contract and use long positions in the 2512 and 2502 contracts for protection [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Readings - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first half of 2025, China's social financing scale increment was 22.83 trillion yuan, with an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year - on - year. In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, with an increase of about 110 billion yuan year - on - year. M2 - M1 spread narrowed [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro - policy disturbances led to price fluctuations. The projects involved in the policy account for 10% of the global output, 24% of China's output, and 92% of Jiangxi's output. The market may be more volatile [7][8]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is short - term volatile and strong. Different scenarios are considered for the 2508 contract's settlement price, and a strategy of holding light short positions in the 2510 contract and protecting with long positions in the 2512 and 2502 contracts is recommended [9]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [12][18][19]. - **Base Metals** - Copper: Inventory increase puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [12][21][23]. - Zinc: It is under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [12][24][25]. - Lead: Attention should be paid to the consumption during the peak season, with a trend strength of 0 [12][26][27]. - Tin: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [12][29][31]. - Aluminum: It is under pressure in the off - season. Alumina is expected to be short - term bullish and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][33][35]. - Nickel: Support from the ore end is weakening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][36][41]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - Lithium Carbonate: Policy disturbances on the supply side are notable. The trend strength is 1 [12][42][44]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Policy disturbances affect the market. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [12][45][47]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strongly volatile, with a trend strength of 0 [12][48]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The market sentiment remains strong, and prices oscillate widely. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][51][53]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Steel - procurement prices have been settled, slightly boosting the market. The trend strengths of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0 [12][55][57]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is expected to be volatile and strong, and coking coal is affected by news and is also volatile and strong. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [12][58][61]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [12][63][66].

| | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 66,480 | 2,200 | 2,820 | 4,220 | 6,000 | -6,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,014,558 | 611,742 | 801,254 | 624,831 | 860,018 | 1,005,806 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 356,161 | 33,301 | 33,627 | 25,337 | 117,581 | 338,2 ...

Group 1: Financial Regulation and Market Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued an opinion on strengthening financial trial work, emphasizing the need to punish market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering to promote healthy financial market development [2] - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory authorities, released the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" to enhance liquidity in the green finance market and improve asset management efficiency [2] - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] Group 2: Trade and Economic Relations - China's total goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7% [2] - The EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on US imports worth 720 billion euros (approximately 840 billion USD) if trade negotiations fail, as EU member states consider the US tariff threats "absolutely unacceptable" [3] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Forecasts - Several listed securities firms, including Guotai Junan, reported significant year-on-year profit growth for the first half of 2025, with Guotai Junan expected to achieve a net profit of 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan, representing a growth of 205% to 218% [7] - Tianqi Lithium Industries forecasted a net profit of 0 to 15.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year, driven by improved investment income and currency exchange gains [7]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss of 720 million to 850 million yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a loss of 186.95 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a decline of 285.13% to 354.67% year-on-year [1] - The expected net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 760 million and 890 million yuan, compared to a loss of 282.72 million yuan in the previous year, reflecting a decrease of 168.82% to 214.80% [1] - The basic earnings per share are anticipated to be a loss of 0.79 to 0.93 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.20 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance for the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to the industry's supply and demand dynamics, with lithium product market prices continuing to fall in the second quarter, leading to a decrease in the company's gross profit compared to the previous year [1] - The company has significantly increased the provision for asset impairment based on accounting standards, which has adversely affected the profit for the current reporting period [1]