Market Trends - The spring market rally from December to February historically shows an average increase of 16%-18% for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index from 2010 to 2025[1] - The current spring rally is considered to be in its latter half, with a potential for a price increase lasting about one month before entering a consolidation phase[2] Industry Performance - Growth and technology sectors have a win rate exceeding 80%, with average excess returns over 3%[12] - High-end manufacturing follows, with average excess returns above 2%, while sectors like computing, communication, and electronics show average excess returns exceeding 4%[12] Sector Rotation - As of 2026, strong sectors include military (commercial aerospace), automotive (robots), and utilities, while previously leading sectors like non-ferrous metals and machinery are in a consolidation phase[3] - The focus should be on sectors with unchanged industrial trends but relatively lower recent gains, such as lithium batteries, energy storage, humanoid robots, innovative drugs, and AI hardware[32] Risks - Market sentiment can change rapidly, leading to accelerated contraction in trading volume[34] - Potential risks include slow progress in technological breakthroughs, tightening global liquidity due to changes in overseas market expectations, and increased geopolitical risks[34]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.6% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.02% during the midday session [1] - The total market turnover was 1.8952 trillion yuan, a decrease of 350.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - AI applications, commercial aerospace, stablecoins, CRO, medical services, and intelligent driving concept stocks all experienced declines, with retail and brokerage sectors leading the losses [1] - In contrast, the energy metals and chemical sectors showed resilience and performed well [1] ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector continued its strong performance, with Southern Fund's non-ferrous metals ETF, GF Fund's rare metals ETF, and non-ferrous mining ETF rising by 2.75%, 2.45%, and 2.4% respectively [1] - The lithium battery sector also saw gains, with ICBC Credit Suisse Fund's lithium battery ETF and GF Fund's battery ETF increasing by 2.42% and 2.3% respectively [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a widespread pullback, with satellite industry ETFs and satellite ETFs from GF falling by 9% [1] - The military industry sector declined, with high-end equipment ETFs and military leader ETFs dropping by 5% [1] - The AI applications sector also faced a downturn, with media ETFs decreasing by 5% [1]

Market Overview - The major stock indices in the A-share market experienced a downward trend, with the ChiNext Index falling over 1% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index declining nearly 2% [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.6% to 4101.52 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.02% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached approximately 1.9 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as military, retail, brokerage, pharmaceuticals, coal, steel, and semiconductors saw declines, while the GEO concept experienced a significant drop [1] - Conversely, sectors like tourism, non-ferrous metals, lithium mining, phosphorus concepts, and solid-state battery concepts showed resilience and activity [1] Future Outlook - According to Galaxy Securities, the A-share market has entered a "volatile" phase since mid-December 2025, with expectations for a continued spring rally [1] - There is a need to monitor the support from fundamental data as January marks the window for annual performance forecasts, with a focus on earnings announcements and economic data [1] - The policy expectations for the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan are anticipated to bolster market confidence, with short-term market volatility likely to increase as the market reaches new highs [1] - Emphasis is placed on identifying structural investment opportunities [1]

当地时间1月14日，美国国务院表示，已决定批准向科威特政府出售"爱国者"导弹系统维护和后续技术 支持及相关设备，预计交易金额为8亿美元。（央视记者 许弢） 责编：陈菲扬、李萌 ...

华尔街向来热衷于创造朗朗上口的英文缩写，以此概括交易逻辑，比如代表科技龙头的FANG（指的是 Facebook、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet）、描述市场情绪的FOMO（错失恐惧）/YOLO（人 生苦短，及时行乐），还有戏谑关税政策的TACO（特朗普总是临阵退缩）。 如今，奈德・戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）首席美国策略师埃德・克利索尔德（Ed Clissold） 打算创造一个新名词——Big MAC交易，这个缩写对应的是"中期选举大战将至（Big Midterms Are Coming）"。他想用这个概念，概括他眼中2026年美股市场的核心主题：今年秋季国会选举前后的政策 走向及其影响。 Sevens Report创始人汤姆・埃塞耶（Tom Essaye）称，政府政策"乱象"是2026年市场面临的又一风险。 他担忧的是，市场对特朗普近期多次试图改写经济和商业政策的举动反应平淡，这或许释放出一个信 号：市场对政策细节的变动已趋于麻木。 "这是我们未来需要密切关注的风险，因为市场对政策不确定性的漠视，似乎正在助长本届政府的激进 倾向。"他在周一的报告中写道。 埃塞耶补 ...

Market Overview - On January 14, the A-share market experienced a pullback after a brief surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% at one point, nearing 4200 points, but ultimately closing down 0.31% at 4126.09 points [6][7] - The market's trading volume approached 4 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [6][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.82%, and the STAR 50 Index gained 2.13%, while the CSI 500 Index remained flat [6][7] Sector Performance - The market displayed uneven performance across sectors, with strong movements in thematic hotspots [6][7] - The commercial aerospace sector saw a pullback after recent gains, while sectors related to advertising media and AI applications, such as AI glasses, continued to rise [6][7] - Other active sectors included brain-computer interfaces and energy storage, indicating a rotation among hot sectors [6][7] Investment Insights - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence in the long-term performance of the A-share market while remaining cautious and avoiding blind pursuit of thematic hotspots [3][7] - The technology sector, particularly commercial aerospace and military industry segments, is highlighted as a key area for long-term focus [3][7] - The commercial aerospace sector is at a critical transition point from grand narratives to scalable and commercial implementation, necessitating close monitoring of major satellite launch plans and technological breakthroughs [3][7] - The military sector is also expected to benefit from the commercial aerospace industry, with new directions such as military trade and military intelligence becoming increasingly relevant [3][7]

Group 1 - The key industries for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 5000 points in 2026 are electronics, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, banking, military industry, machinery, and automobiles [10][12][15] - In the optimistic PE + neutral EPS scenario, the EPS growth rates for 2025 are projected to be 26% for electronics, 46% for non-bank financials, and 31% for non-ferrous metals, with expected growth rates of 42%, 53%, and 36% respectively in 2026 under neutral assumptions [15][12][10] - The banking sector, despite lower EPS growth, holds a significant weight of 17.1% in the index, indicating its potential to contribute to index growth if valuations or earnings improve [15][12] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a surge in short-term premium income and improved mid-term investment returns, driven by a significant amount of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [18][13] - The brokerage sector shows a significant valuation divergence, with a PE of 18.2 times and a PB of 1.41 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery due to strong fundamentals and policy catalysts [21][23] - The electronics industry has seen a substantial increase in its market weight, with its share in the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 1.6% at the end of 2015 to 11.5% by the end of 2025, supported by trends in AI and semiconductor industries [24][4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to tight supply conditions and increased demand from AI and energy sectors, potentially leading to price increases in 2026 [25][5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is anticipated to expand, with strong performances expected in commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, driven by policy support and technological advancements [29][6] - Historical data suggests that the 2015 bull market was significantly driven by financial and real estate sectors, indicating that the current bull market may similarly rely on technology and manufacturing sectors to reach 5000 points [30][7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 is characterized by a "new and old coexistence" structure, with technology and overseas expansion becoming the core themes for profit pattern reshaping [1] Group 1: Profit Structure - The technology and overseas expansion sectors currently account for 36% of A-share profits, with expectations to rise to 60%, establishing a dual mainline in fundamentals [1] - The technology sector is shifting focus from computing power and AI semiconductors to supply-demand gap areas in the industrial chain, such as humanoid robots and intelligent driving [1] Group 2: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries are stabilizing profits by moving towards high-end manufacturing or expanding overseas [1] - The stabilization of the Producer Price Index (PPI) is driving profit recovery in upstream resource products, with non-ferrous metals and other globally priced commodities performing notably [1] Group 3: Financial Indicators - Improvements in free cash flow and sales net profit margin indicate a better state of capital return for companies [1] - There is a significant divergence in profitability across industries, with electronics, military industry, and non-ferrous metals being the main drivers of recent index gains [1]

国泰中证军工ETF（512660）成立日期2016年7月26日，最新规模141.09亿。今年以来收益14.04%，同 类排名245/5520；近一年收益61.99%，同类排名867/4203；成立以来收益56.42%。 国泰中证军工ETF（512660）基金经理为艾小军。 截至发稿，艾小军累计任职时间12年5天，现任基金资产总规模1690.29亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 286.65%， 任职期间最差基金回报-46.54%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 1月14日，天海防务涨5.57%，截至发稿，报9.09元/股，成交9.60亿元，换手率6.58%，总市值157.08亿 元。 资料显示，天海融合防务装备技术股份有限公司位于上海市松江区莘砖公路518号10幢，成立日期2001 年10月29日，上市日期2009年10月30日，公司主营业务涉及船舶与海洋工程、军民融合产业、清洁能源 利用等。主营业务收入构成为：船海工程设计建造总承包业务9 ...

1月14日，军工板块强劲反弹，中证军工指数超70只成份股飘红，上海瀚讯领涨12.82%，中科星图上涨10.03%，海格通信涨停录得三连板。热 门ETF方面，军工ETF华宝（512810）场内价格涨超3%，成交额超7100万元。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | | = | | F9 盘前盘后 营加 九转 圈线 工具 必 | 2 | 至工ETF华宝 1 | | 512810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 512810[军] ETF华宝] 11:10 价 0.927 | | 涨跌 0.027(3.00%) 均价 0.912 成交量 | | | | | | | 0.930 | | | Not VA | | | | | 0.927 | | +0.027 +3.00% | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:10:23 交易中 | | 通融/ # + | | 0.915 | | | | | | | :67% | 净值是势 | | 华宝中证军工ETF | | ...