欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 俄乌两军继续相互发动打击。 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部17日通报称，乌军当天凌晨在克里米亚击毁俄军一架卡-27多 用途直升机。此外，乌军还打击了俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔边疆区的一家石油化工企业等。 来源：央视新闻客户端 End 俄罗斯国防部17日通报称，过去一天，俄军使用高精度武器以及无人机，对乌克兰的军 工设施、保障乌军需求的能源基础设施以及无人机场所发动了大规模打击。俄防空部队击 落8枚乌军制导航空炸弹和334架固定翼无人机。 此外，俄西南部克拉斯诺达尔边疆区应急指挥部17日说，该边疆区多地遭无人机袭击， 一座炼油厂遇袭发生局部火情。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基17日在社交媒体发文称，俄方实施了一次针对乌能源设施的大规模 联合打击行动，袭击波及乌克兰12个州。 编辑丨闫志强 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures declined amid light trading as investors returned from the Presidents' Day holiday, entering a week with reduced trading hours [1][7] - Concerns over ongoing AI spending and competitive pressures continue to weigh on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which saw futures drop by 0.7% [1][9] - European markets opened quietly, with most blue-chip indices rising, including the FTSE 100, which increased by 0.4% [2][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar rose to an 11-day high against a basket of currencies, supported by risk-averse capital flows as traders returned from the holiday [3][9] - Gold prices fell below $5,000 per ounce, with New York gold futures down by 2.2% to $4,937.40 [6][12] - Oil prices declined ahead of direct talks between the US and Iran, with Brent crude down by 0.9% to $68 per barrel [5][11] Economic Data and Expectations - Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, including the ADP employment data and inflation figures from the US and Japan, to be released later in the week [1][5] - The market anticipates the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and fourth-quarter economic growth data, which may provide insights into future interest rate cuts [3][9] Stock Performance - The Nasdaq index futures fell by 0.6% in pre-market trading, with most of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks declining, except for Amazon, which rose by 0.2% [1][7] - The Nikkei index closed down 0.2%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, with SoftBank shares dropping by 5.1% [2][7]

Group 1 - On Lunar New Year's Eve, five listed companies announced significant mergers, acquisitions, and strategic investments, igniting market expectations for the upcoming year [1][7] - Pacific Shipping announced a strategic investment agreement with Tuo Wei Group, aiming to enhance its financial strength and expand its business in the recovering global shipping market [3] - Daren International sold 40% of its stake in Lordan Group Ltd for HKD 31.41 million, optimizing its asset structure and focusing on core business development [4] Group 2 - Li Hua Holdings Group provided a supplementary announcement regarding its asset acquisition, detailing pricing and transaction terms, which signifies a substantial step in its restructuring efforts [5] - Northern Long Dragon disclosed an acquisition aimed at enhancing its business ecosystem in both civilian and military sectors, indicating a focus on high-quality development through industry consolidation [6] - Baodi Mining's restructuring registration became effective, indicating a comprehensive integration of its gold industry chain, reflecting the ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the capital market [7][8]

格隆汇2月16日｜据波兰广播电台2月15日消息，在为期六个月的退约通知期结束后，自2月20日起，波 兰将正式退出《渥太华禁雷公约》，以便生产杀伤人员地雷用于边境防御。2025年6月，波兰议会批准 政府提出的退出《渥太华公约》的提案。"波兰不能让自己陷入束缚，从而无法保卫祖国，"波兰国防部 长科西尼亚克-卡梅什在就该法案进行辩论时表示。波兰并非唯一退出该公约的国家。2025年，三个波 罗的海国家——爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛——完成了退出程序。今年年初，芬兰也退出了该公约。 ...

据波兰广播电台2月15日报道，在为期六个月的退约通知期结束后，自2月20日起，波兰将正式退出《渥 太华禁雷公约》，以便生产杀伤人员地雷用于边境防御。 2025年6月，波兰议会批准政府提出的退出《渥太华公约》的提案。"波兰不能让自己陷入束缚，从而无 法保卫祖国，"波兰国防部长科西尼亚克-卡梅什在就该法案进行辩论时表示。 波兰并非唯一退出该公约的国家。2025年，三个波罗的海国家——爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛——完 成了退出程序。今年年初，芬兰也退出了该公约。 《渥太华公约》于1997年签署，并于两年后生效，禁止签约国在全球范围内使用、生产及转让杀伤人员 地雷。 波兰广播电台承认，未爆炸的弹药即使在冲突结束后，仍会长期构成威胁。仅在2023年，全球就有近 6000人因地雷丧生或受伤。其中80%的受害者是平民。而清除爆炸物危险品的工作既危险、昂贵，又极 其耗时。 来源：环球时报 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.96% [1] - Over 2,600 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of 1.2 trillion [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept experienced a decline of 2.23%, with Changxin Bochuang dropping by 9.19% and Guangku Technology down by 8.15% [3] - The port and shipping sector saw significant drops, with Zhongyuan Marine Energy and China Merchants Energy both experiencing substantial declines [3] - Small metals, photovoltaic equipment, mining industry, HIT batteries, glass fiber, and hot stocks from Dongfang Fortune also followed suit, with declines exceeding 1% [3] - The military industry sector showed strong performance, highlighted by Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting the daily limit [3] - The semiconductor sector was active, with concepts related to photolithography machines and photolithography adhesives rapidly rising, including Guofeng New Materials achieving two limits in four days [3] - The semiconductor equipment concept continued to strengthen, with Shenghui Integration hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high [3] - The paper-making concept showed repeated strength, with Wuzhou Special Paper hitting the daily limit [3] Economic Indicators - In January, the month-on-month decline in commodity residential sales prices in first, second, and third-tier cities narrowed overall, with second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreasing by 0.5%, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce organized a "Film+" consumption pilot program, with the first batch of 16 cities selected [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that policy adjustments and artificial intelligence will drive GDP growth in the United States [3]

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 编者按：辞旧迎新，金马贺岁。值此新春佳节，新浪财经特邀公私募领域数十位领军人物，通过镜头与 文字，为投资者送来马年新春祝福。信心如磐，笃行致远。愿这一声声真挚寄语，伴您策马扬鞭，共赴 投资长路。 摩根士丹利基金权益投资部总监雷志勇送来新春祝福。他表示，AI应用有望迎来估值上行周期，2026 年或将是AI应用爆发的元年。此外，在政策红利和工程师红利的双重驱动下，高端制造产业链的景气 度有望延续，中国企业升级和出海将在2026年继续得到认可，军工如商业、航天、核电、风电、储能等 高端制造细分领域有望诞生一批全球龙头企业。 祝福全文： 各位投资者朋友们，大家新年好，我是摩根士丹利基金权益投资部总监雷志勇。回望2025年，权益市场 在震荡中走强，我们一同见证了泛科技主线的崛起与成长。通过把握人工智能、TMT、高端制造等领 域的机遇，我们的产品获得了不错的表现。大摩数字经济近两年的业绩同类排名第一，大摩科技领先近 两年、近三年、近五年的业绩均排名同类前四分之一，在此也要非常感谢各位投资者朋友的 ...

Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on selecting sectors with low penetration rates and high expected growth potential, particularly in emerging growth areas driven by technological or business model innovations [6][9] - The selected emerging growth sectors are primarily concentrated in machinery, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and new energy industries [9][11] - The emerging growth fund pool has demonstrated strong elasticity and higher risk, with an annualized return of 17.80% from February 7, 2014, to February 6, 2026, outperforming the equity fund index by 7.67% [11][14] Group 2 - The definition of emerging growth funds is based on the attributes of the holdings, requiring that growth stocks constitute over 60% of the top holdings, with a minimum of 30% in emerging growth stocks [22] - The screening process for the emerging growth fund pool emphasizes funds that closely follow trends and have higher momentum and market sentiment [23] - The fund pool's performance has shown significant contributions from industry allocation, with a strong ability to generate excess returns through effective sector selection [14][20] Group 3 - The fund pool's style is characterized by high market attention, momentum, growth, and volatility, with a relatively neutral market capitalization style [17] - The allocation has shifted primarily towards TMT sectors, with increased exposure in recent years, particularly since 2023 [20] - The historical performance of the emerging growth fund pool indicates strong returns in specific years, such as 2020, where it achieved a 116.40% return compared to the equity fund index [15][16]

Core Viewpoints - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced expectations of technology leading the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5] - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while being cautious of rapid bull markets that may lead to sharp declines [2][6] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology + low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][6] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not in the real estate chain but are related to national strategies in three sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][7] - AI remains a core focus in technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [3][9] - The investment focus for the next 3 to 6 months should be on cyclical and manufacturing sectors, as these align with national strategies and economic transformation [7][8] Market Dynamics - The core drivers of the current market uptrend are improvements in national governance and stronger expectations for technology-led economic growth, with significant achievements in diplomacy, defense, and trade contributing to economic resilience [4][5] - The market is currently at a critical juncture around the 4100-point level, with the need for new drivers to support further upward movement, as previous gains have largely reflected the core drivers [6][12] - The transition from a "dumbbell" market structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips indicates a shift in risk appetite, with low-volatility, high-dividend stocks losing their appeal [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to experience a period of consolidation and differentiation, with the potential for long-term growth remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][10] - The public fund commission rate reform is prompting a strategic shift in brokerage research departments, moving towards comprehensive service for institutional clients beyond just public funds [17] - The securities research industry is seen as a field of continuous learning and growth, with a call for new talent to join and contribute to the evolving landscape [18]

Core Insights - Northrop Grumman Corporation (stock code: NOC) has outlined key developments and projections for 2026 based on its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial disclosures [1] Financial Performance - The company expects sales in 2026 to range between $43.5 billion and $44 billion, indicating mid-single-digit growth; operating profit is projected to be between $4.85 billion and $5 billion, with an operating margin in the low to mid-11% range; adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to be between $27.4 and $27.9, also reflecting mid-single-digit growth; free cash flow guidance is set at $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion, consistent with the outlook provided in October 2025, and does not yet account for the potential impact of accelerated production of the B-21 [2] Project Developments - The B-21 Raider bomber project is advancing towards production acceleration negotiations, with an agreement expected in Q1 2026; if reached, this could have significant financial implications in 2027 and beyond, requiring an investment of $2 billion to $3 billion; additionally, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile project is expected to enter production in the latter part of this decade, while unmanned systems (such as the "Talons" project) and space assets (like the Space Development Agency satellite contracts) continue to progress [3] Operational Status - As of the end of 2025, the company had a record backlog of over $95 billion in unfulfilled orders, with net new orders exceeding $46 billion in 2025, reflecting strong defense demand, including the U.S. government's focus on expanding capacity for key projects [4] Business Segment Progress - The Aerospace Systems segment is expected to see sales growth to approximately $13 billion, driven by the B-21 and F-35 programs; the Defense Systems segment anticipates organic sales growth in the low double digits; the Mission Systems segment is projected to reach sales of around $12 billion, with potential margin improvements [5]