【导读】老铺黄金强势反弹，大涨6.23% 中国基金报记者 格林 全日市场聚焦半导体、黄金、军工等相关概念股或板块。 8月4日，港股三大指数集体上涨。 截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.92%，报24733.45点； 恒生科 技指数 涨1.55%； 恒生中国企业指数 涨1.01%。全日大市成交额为2347亿港元，南向资金 罕见净流出180.92亿港元。今年以来截至8月1日，南向资金累计净流入港股8790.49亿港 元。 | TX | 100 HD | DOD II 12 021 | 吕三丁目双人们只 | | GIUJOG | And | | 二十四日间目出 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | 序号 | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | 24733.45c | 225.64 | 0.92% | 2347亿 | 23.30% | | | 2 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 5481.25c | 83.85 | 1.55% | 520亿 | 22.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current atmosphere in the US stock market appears unsettling, with signs of institutional investors pulling out despite the market's apparent stability [1][3]. Market Conditions - As of mid-July 2025, the S&P 500 has risen over 18% for the year, largely driven by the performance of major tech companies, with Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft contributing over 70% to the index's gains [3]. - The market's upward momentum is not supported by the real economy but rather by the Federal Reserve's signals regarding future interest rate cuts [3]. Investor Behavior - Notably, investor Rogers has liquidated all his US stock positions, indicating a strategic retreat due to perceived systemic risks [6][4]. - Historical precedents show that Rogers has successfully exited markets before major downturns, raising concerns about the current market's stability [6]. Sector-Specific Risks - The commercial real estate sector is facing significant challenges, with the national office vacancy rate reaching a historical high of 21.4%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - Many commercial properties are unable to refinance, leading to potential technical defaults that could impact regional banks heavily tied to these assets [8]. Broader Economic Concerns - State-level fiscal deficits are expanding, with over 20 states facing budget shortfalls for the 2025 fiscal year, including California's projected deficit of over $50 billion [8]. - The reliance on debt issuance by these states raises the risk of defaults if interest rates do not decrease [8]. Market Sentiment - The current market structure is heavily reliant on a few tech stocks, making it vulnerable to shocks if any part of this structure falters [10]. - Investor confidence is eroding, leading to budget cuts and hiring freezes across various sectors, indicating a shift towards a more conservative financial strategy [10].

Group 1 - The core asset of the 华夏中海商业 REIT is the 佛山映月湖环宇城, which has shown a strong growth in foot traffic and revenue with a CAGR of 17% and 15% from 2022 to 2024 respectively, and a stable occupancy rate above 97% since 2023 [3][31] - The project is strategically located in the core commercial area of 佛山, serving a population of 430,000 within a 3 km radius and over 800,000 within 5 km, which enhances its service capacity and customer base [9][14] - The original equity holder, 中海环宇商业, is a leading commercial operation brand with a rich asset reserve, which supports the project's growth and operational efficiency [24][26] Group 2 - The project's revenue has steadily increased, with total revenues of 1.01, 1.12, 1.37, and 0.32 billion from 2022 to Q1 2025, driven by improved occupancy rates and optimized tenant mix [36][38] - The EBITDA margin has been under pressure, with EBITDA figures of 0.85, 0.89, 0.90, and 0.21 billion during the same period, indicating a need for ongoing operational improvements [36][39] - The project maintains a high occupancy rate of 97%-98% since 2023, which is above the average of comparable REITs, indicating strong demand and effective management [41][42] Group 3 - The expected fair value of the project assets is estimated to be between 11.32 and 13.91 billion, with an IRR ranging from 5.52% to 6.50%, which is significantly higher than the average of listed consumer REITs [3][4] - The projected capitalization rates for 2025 and 2026 are 5.15%-6.15% and 5.60%-6.62% respectively, which are higher than comparable REITs, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][20] - The forecasted distribution rates for 2025 and 2026 are 4.52% and 4.92% respectively, which are significantly higher than the latest distribution rates of comparable REITs, suggesting strong cash flow potential [4][20]

记者丨 李惠琳 谭璐 编辑丨谭璐 资本市场反应积极，8月1日复牌，大悦城地产大涨45.95%，市值飙涨至77亿港元。 溢价回购 这笔大交易核心操盘人，是姚长林。 2024年中，姚接任大悦城控股、大悦城地产的董事长，此前他在中粮系工作20多年。一上 任，就承担着破局的重担。 1350亿资产的大悦城地产，或告别资本市场。 7月最后一天，其董事长姚长林签发了一则公告，董事会决议，回购公司股份，并撤销在香港 联交所的上市地位。 这家商业地产巨头，已在港股上市12年。 为达成私有化，出价不菲。此次回购涉及股份总数47.3亿股， 代价最高约29.32亿港元，完成 后全部注销 。 交易完成后，大悦城地产将几近全资并入母公司大悦城控股。至此，中粮系两家地产平台， 由"分点作战"变成"抱团取暖"。 大悦城地产，本身是大悦城控股的并表子公司，也是其商业板块的重要组成部分 。 旗下拥有或管理32个大悦城、大悦汇等商业项目，以及三亚亚龙湾瑞吉度假酒店、三亚美高 梅度假酒店、北京华尔道夫酒店等奢华酒店。 在6月初的股东大会上，姚长林坦言，此刻要审时度势，积极制定经营政策，应对市场变化。 话音落下不到两个月，他就有大动作。 此次回购股份 ...

中国经济的韧性，正成为美联储高压货币政策的最大挑战。这场全球金融角力中，美联储的鹰派策略，远未能如其所愿地"收割"中国。 曾经，国际贸易结算几乎必须以美元计价。如今，人民币跨境支付系统在发展中国家市场广泛应用。越南的太阳能电池板制造商用人民币采购中国光伏组 件，刚果的矿业公司也更倾向于使用人民币结算。美元在这些新兴市场的传统主导地位正受到前所未有的挑战。 这并非简单的固执。华尔街分析报告揭示了美联储的深层战略：通过延长高利率周期，制造美元流动性虹吸效应，迫使新兴市场，特别是中国，出现资本外 流，为美国金融机构创造抄底机会。这套"紧缩-动荡-抄底"的模式，曾在上世纪90年代末的亚洲金融风暴中奏效，成为美国转嫁经济危机的惯用手法。 然而，中国经济展现出了前所未有的韧性，令美联储的算盘落空。尽管人民币兑美元汇率出现阶段性调整，但中国拥有3万亿美元的外汇储备——这如同为 国民经济系上了一层坚固的"防冲击装甲"。 面对国际资本的短期流出，中国央行及时启动市场稳定机制，国家队资金迅速介入，有效化解了市场风险，避 免了类似新兴市场常见的恐慌性资本外逃。 去年A股市场就是一个典型的例子：面对境外投资者数十亿元的集中抛售，国家 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dalian Wanda Group plans to repurchase shares of its subsidiary Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties for approximately HKD 29.32 billion and intends to delist from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ending a 12-year listing history [2][4]. Group 1: Share Repurchase and Delisting - Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties will repurchase shares from all shareholders except for Dalian Wanda Group and its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary [3]. - The repurchase price is set at HKD 0.62 per share, totaling around HKD 29.32 billion for the cancellation of 4.73 billion shares [3]. - Following the transaction, Dalian Wanda Group's ownership in Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties will increase to 96.13% [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties reported a revenue of RMB 19.83 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%, with a net profit of RMB 779 million [5]. - In contrast, Dalian Wanda Group's revenue for 2024 was approximately RMB 35.79 billion, a decrease of 2.7% from 2023, with a net loss of RMB 2.977 billion, an increase of 103.14% compared to the previous year [5]. - The total loss for Dalian Wanda Group over the past three years exceeds RMB 7 billion [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The delisting is seen as a strategic move to simplify the corporate structure and enhance operational efficiency, allowing for more agile responses to market changes [6][4]. - Both companies believe that the transaction will optimize resource allocation and improve overall operational efficiency, enhancing competitive strength [6]. - The removal of the listing is expected to resolve existing competition issues between the two entities, streamlining decision-making processes [7][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The proposed privatization of Dayuecheng Real Estate is expected to lead to a significant revaluation of quality commercial properties, enhancing the ownership concentration of Dayuecheng in premium shopping centers [3][4] - The privatization transaction is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of only 0.27 times, which is considered low, and is anticipated to increase Dayuecheng's net assets by approximately 25% [3][4] - The transaction is seen as a recognition of the value of quality commercial assets by industrial capital, potentially leading to a revaluation of premium consumer-related assets in the market [3][4] Summary by Sections Privatization Details - Dayuecheng's shareholding in Dayuecheng Real Estate will increase from 64% to 96.1% post-privatization, significantly enhancing its stake in quality commercial properties [3] - The total share capital of Dayuecheng Real Estate is 15.33 billion shares, with Dayuecheng holding 9.13 billion shares (64.2%) and market shareholders holding 4.73 billion shares (33.2%) [3] Financial Projections - Dayuecheng Real Estate's rental and related service income for 2024 is projected to be 4.18 billion RMB, primarily from shopping centers, with an average occupancy rate of 95% [3] - The privatization is expected to increase Dayuecheng's net assets by 2.62 billion RMB, representing 24.7% of the projected net assets for 2024 [3] Market Implications - The privatization is likely to attract attention to the valuation of quality commercial real estate assets in China, with potential implications for companies like China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and New Town Holdings [3] - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, recommending companies with strong product capabilities and those with undervalued recovery potential [3][4]

近年来，钱塘呈现"一核引领，多点开花"的商业布局态势。以金沙湖核心商圈为引领，商圈环湖汇聚金 沙天街、吾角天街、金沙印象城、下沙银泰百货四大综合体，串联金沙湖大剧院、湖畔中心、文体中心 等品质配套，是钱塘区东部城市客厅、文商旅消费聚集地。另据统计，目前全区总投用商业综合体12 个。通过数字赋能传统产业、建设特色展销中心、创新"商贸+"服务模式，充分激活"产业+开放+创 新"叠加效应，推动本土商务服务企业国际化发展，持续推进"青年消费城"建设，着力打造"国际化、高 能级、钱塘味"的国际商贸流通创新发展引领区。截至2024年，钱塘区社会消费品零售总额在所有区域 中增速排名第二。今年1-6月实现全口径社零244.5亿元，累计增幅14.5%，全市排名第一。耀眼的商贸 成绩单彰显出全区较强的消费市场增长活力。钱塘与银泰集团的成功牵手，也有望推动钱塘商业经济从 成长期进入蝶变期。 商报讯 （通讯员 程宇昂 鲍玲利 记者 郑炜） 钱塘商业版图再上新。 近日，钱塘（新）区与银泰集团签署战略合作协议，双方将联袂打造杭州城东标杆级的商业综合体，钱 塘区商业将迎来又一新地标。 此次钱塘与银泰集团的全方位战略合作，将充分发挥银泰投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's, a major player in the fast-food industry, is planning to sell eight retail properties in Hong Kong, marking a significant shift in its real estate strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Property Sale Details - McDonald's is set to sell eight retail properties located in key areas of Hong Kong, including Tsim Sha Tsui, Causeway Bay, and Mong Kok, with a total estimated value of approximately HKD 1.2 billion [5]. - The properties range in size from about 6,800 square feet to 19,000 square feet, and buyers can bid on the entire portfolio or individual properties [5]. - This sale is part of a phased plan to divest all 23 of its retail locations in Hong Kong, with a total market value exceeding HKD 3 billion [5]. Market Context - The properties being sold have been held by McDonald's for several decades, with some dating back over 50 years [6]. - The overall occupancy rate of the properties is 100%, with McDonald's restaurants operating in each location, alongside other retail tenants [6][7]. - The current market conditions in Hong Kong show a decline in property values, with core street shop capital values down 2.3% quarter-on-quarter and 5.4% year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [7]. Investment Implications - The sale of these properties is seen as an opportunity for investors to acquire stable rental income from a strong tenant like McDonald's [7]. - The estimated market return rate for core street shops in Hong Kong is approximately 2.47% based on net effective rent [7]. - Despite the challenging market environment, there is interest from potential buyers, indicating a demand for well-located properties with reliable tenants [9]. McDonald's Business Model - McDonald's operates primarily through a franchise model, with 95% of its restaurants globally being franchised, while also generating significant rental income from its owned properties [11][14]. - In 2024, McDonald's reported total revenues of USD 25.92 billion, with rental income accounting for approximately 38.65% of total revenue [14]. - The company has a history of leveraging real estate for financial stability, often being referred to as an "invisible landlord" due to its substantial rental income [11][12].

Core Point - Chuzhou Wanda Plaza Investment Co., Ltd. has undergone a significant change in its shareholder structure, with Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. exiting and Langfang Zeruitong Technology Co., Ltd. becoming the sole shareholder [1][2] Company Information - Chuzhou Wanda Plaza Investment Co., Ltd. was established on January 2, 2018, with a registered capital of 10 million RMB [2] - The company operates in the business services industry, focusing on property investment and leasing [2] - The legal representative and board members of the company have also changed following the shareholder transition [1] Shareholder Structure - Langfang Zeruitong Technology Co., Ltd. is fully owned by Beijing Zeruitong Technology Co., Ltd. (55%) and Hebei Langkong Economic Development Co., Ltd. (45%) [2] - This change is part of a broader trend, as several Wanda Plazas have been transferred in recent times [2]