Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change. On March 5, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard-grade drawn wire dropping to around 27.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and have been continuously decreasing after the holiday. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil price has risen significantly, which has a significant boost to PP. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly increased. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories has increased, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change. On March 5, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire dropping to around 27.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and have been continuously decreasing after the holiday. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which has a significant boost to PP. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly increased. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories has increased, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 7,282 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,719 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7,458 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.57%. The position increased by 11,650 lots to 476,193 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. The price of drawn wire was reported at 7,140 - 7,830 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On March 5, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire dropping to around 27.5% [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change [1][4] - **Inventory**: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 825,000 tons, which was 65,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $83 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $855 per ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - FCM is a leading domestic nylon manufacturer specializing in high-performance polymer materials, focusing on innovation and application in the automotive and new energy sectors [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - FCM specializes in the research and production of high-performance polymers such as PPA, PA12, PA66, PA6, PPS, and PBT, and holds two major product brands: FCMID® and STARMID® [2]. - The company has received multiple certifications, including ISO9001 and IATF16949, and is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise with 15 patents and nearly 800 products [2]. - FCM excels in laser-penetrating materials, metal replacement, and high-temperature nylon applications, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [2][6]. Group 2: Product Highlights - FCM's laser welding materials include PA6, PA66, PPA, PA12, PBT, and PPS, achieving a laser penetration rate of over 70% for black PBT materials, significantly surpassing competitors [3][6]. - The PPA series (HTG) offers high-temperature resistance and mechanical performance, with materials containing up to 70% glass fiber, suitable for various automotive applications [8][6]. - PA12 is highlighted for its high hardness, low water absorption, excellent chemical resistance, and dimensional stability, making it ideal for use in new energy vehicles [8][13]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Events - The global nylon market is projected to exceed $47 billion, driven by innovations in applications such as new energy vehicles, electronics, and robotics [25]. - The "2026 Advanced Nylon Industry Innovation and Application Development Conference" will be held in Guangzhou, focusing on the latest advancements in nylon technology and applications [22][26]. - The conference aims to address challenges in the nylon industry while exploring opportunities for domestic substitution and application upgrades [26][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The plastic is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastic has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involution, and the Middle East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 4, the restart of overhaul devices such as Daqing Petrochemical's LDPE 2 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 91.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared with before the Spring Festival. The downstream has not fully started yet. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has been decreasing since then, currently at a neutral level in recent years. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which significantly boosts plastic. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans in the first quarter [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 7,140 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,529 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,355 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 3.69%. The position volume decreased by 55,231 lots to 381,697 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from +0 to +500 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7,120 - 7,920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,100 - 10,310 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,400 - 8,440 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On March 4, the restart of overhaul devices such as Daqing Petrochemical's LDPE 2 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 91.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared with before the Spring Festival. The downstream has not fully started yet [4]. - **Inventory**: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 850,000 tons, 50,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $83/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $30/ton to $780/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price increased by $20/ton to $760/ton [4].

2026 年 3 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：原油风险加剧，上游供应收缩预期增 强 PP：C3 原料持续偏强，PDH 装置减量延续 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | 货 | | L2605 | | | PP2605 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | 7200 | 2.99% | 1305865 | -68551 | 7223 | 3.22% | 1340890 | 4353 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 05合约基差 | -100 | | -191 | | -23 | | -98 | | | 05-09合约价差 | 1 7 | | -80 | | 5 4 | | -22 | | | 现货价格 | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of L plastic and PP polypropylene fluctuate daily, affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, crude oil prices, and supply - demand relationships. Different trading strategies are recommended based on daily analysis, including holding long positions, short - selling, and waiting and seeing [1][2][5]. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The price of L plastic's main 2605 contract and LLDPE market prices show daily fluctuations. For example, on 26 - 03 - 04, the L main 2605 contract rose 203 points or 2.82% to 7403 points, and LLDPE market prices had a wide - range increase of 170 - 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The price of PP's main 2605 contract and the PP market are also affected by various factors. On 26 - 03 - 04, the PP main 2605 contract rose 228 points or 3.16% to 7451 points. Geopolitical fluctuations and rising crude oil prices have a significant impact on the PP market [1]. Important Information - The China Chemical Industry News reported that 15 products in the petrochemical and chemical industry in 2025 have a risk of oversupply, including 12 high - risk products and 3 relatively high - risk products [1]. - The International Investment Bank Young&Partners reported that the chemical mergers and acquisitions market showed signs of increased activity at the end of 2025, and the industry valuation was gradually stabilizing, with a slight recovery expected in 2026 [5]. - The Xinhua News Agency reported that on February 28, the United States and Israel launched a "pre - emptive" military strike against Iran, and Iran retaliated, affecting many Middle Eastern countries [9]. - The China Petrochemical News reported that global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and China's refining and refined oil industry will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" [13]. - The Youhuacai News reported that the Yanchang Petroleum Yan'an 10 million tons/year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project with a total investment of 80.29 billion yuan has completed preliminary preparations and has been officially submitted to the State Council for approval [17]. - The China Chemical Industry News reported that in 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress in economic operation, with stable production of main energy and chemicals, but a decline in industry investment and total import and export trade [21]. - The Zhuan Su Shi Jie reported that the EU's Waste Technical Adaptation Committee for the "Single - Use Plastics Directive" approved an implementation bill draft, which adjusted the accounting rules for the minimum recycled content of plastic beverage bottles [24]. Logical Analysis - In early March, the US dollar index strengthened to 98.5 points, down 5.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 2 consecutive months, which was bearish for commodities. The Baltic crude oil freight index rose to 2322 points for 3 consecutive months, up 88.2% year - on - year, and the increase was the highest in 39 months, which was bullish for the chemical industry [2]. - In February, the US economic policy uncertainty index rose to 361.3 points, up 9.5% year - on - year, strengthening marginally for 6 consecutive months, which was bullish for the energy sector. Brent oil prices rose to $69.6/barrel for 2 consecutive months, down 7.4% year - on - year, and increased marginally for 6 consecutive months, which was bullish for PP [6]. - In January, the domestic M1 increased 4.9% year - on - year, M2 increased 9.0% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 scissors difference was - 4.1%, up slightly from the previous month, which was slightly bullish for commodities [10]. - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly bearish for commodities. In December 2025, the total import and export volume of domestic raw salt was $49 million, down 46.0% year - on - year, with the decline widening for 9 consecutive months, which was bearish for the chemical industry [14][18]. - In December 2025, new orders for US automobiles and auto parts increased to $67.98 billion, up 11.4% year - on - year, and the increase was the highest in 35 months, with marginal growth for 2 consecutive months, which was bullish for commodities [22]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Different strategies are recommended for the L main 2605 contract and the PP main 2605 contract, including holding long positions, short - selling, trial - buying, and waiting and seeing. For example, on 26 - 03 - 04, it was recommended to hold long positions in the L main 2605 contract and the PP main 2605 contract, and raise the stop - loss levels [2]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Strategies such as holding short positions and trial - shorting are recommended for the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, and stop - loss levels are set [2][6]. - **Options**: Generally, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [2][6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Anliang Futures commodity research report on the plastic futures monthly report for March 2026 [1][4] - The core view is that in February, the polyethylene market had weak supply and demand, with a pattern of "continuing to decline before the Spring Festival, briefly rising after the festival and then falling back". In March, the supply side will enter a new structural adjustment cycle, the demand side support is expected to gradually appear, and the cost side uncertainty increases. The price will mainly operate in a range [6] Group 2: Supply Side 2.1 Supply and Production in February - In February, the domestic polyethylene market supply showed a pattern of total decline, utilization rate increase, and overall regional strengthening. The total output decreased to 290,586 tons, and the LLDPE output was 133,200 tons [8] - The polyethylene maintenance loss in February decreased by 35.36% to 275,300 tons, and the linear variety maintenance volume decreased by 9.48% to 79,650 tons [8] - The overall capacity utilization rate of polyethylene in February was 87.6007%, a 3.7655% increase. The capacity utilization rates of major domestic production areas all increased [9] 2.2 Inventory in February - At the end of February, the total inventory of PE production enterprises rose to 579,700 tons, a 256,700 - ton increase. The LLDPE production enterprise inventory was 252,400 tons, a 126,000 - ton increase [12] - The PE social inventory at the end of February was 597,800 tons, a 118,200 - ton increase. The LLDPE social inventory was 235,750 tons, a 42,430 - ton increase [13] 2.3 Import in February - At the end of February, the international LLDPE prices showed a pattern of widespread increase with differentiated amplitudes. The import cost in the Chinese market increased [16] - In February, China's polyethylene import volume was 1.041 million tons, a 79,000 - ton decrease. The average monthly import profit of each variety weakened [17][18] 2.4 Outlook for March - In March, there will be no new capacity put into production in China, and the number of new maintenance devices will increase compared to February, and the supply side will enter a new structural adjustment cycle [9] Group 3: Demand Side 3.1 February Situation - In February, the overall downstream enterprise start - up rate of polyethylene was 21.6%, a 18.26% decrease. The start - up rates of the agricultural film and packaging film industries decreased significantly [21] - At the end of February, the raw material inventories of major downstream industries of polyethylene decreased. The raw material inventory available days of agricultural film and packaging film enterprises decreased [22] - In February, the polyethylene downstream market was significantly affected by the Spring Festival, with seasonal weakening of demand. After the festival, the demand recovery was slow and the support for the market was limited [24] 3.2 Outlook - With the start of spring plowing and the gradual recovery of packaging and daily necessities consumption, the demand side support is expected to gradually appear [6][24][33] Group 4: Process Cost and Profit 4.1 Cost in February - In February, the oil - based polyethylene cost showed an oscillating upward trend, reaching 7,662.4286 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 267 - yuan/ton increase [26] - The coal - based polyethylene cost steadily recovered, reaching 6,510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 15 - yuan/ton increase [27] 4.2 Profit in February - In February, the profits of polyethylene production enterprises generally weakened. The oil - based enterprise loss increased to 1,029.5714 yuan/ton, and the coal - based enterprise profit decreased to 34.2857 yuan/ton [29] 4.3 Spread in February - In February, the spreads between polyethylene and related varieties narrowed significantly. The average spread of PE - PVC:05 contract was 1,796.14 yuan/ton, a 83.61 - yuan/ton decrease, and the average spread of PE - PP:05 contract was 84.43 yuan/ton, a 97.82 - yuan/ton decrease [30] Group 5: Summary - In March, the supply side will enter a new structural adjustment cycle, the demand side support is expected to gradually appear, and the cost side uncertainty increases. The price will mainly operate in a range, and the short - term fluctuations may be amplified by geopolitical events [33]

【行情分析】 上上游西北地区电石价格下跌50元/吨。供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.99个百分点至82.08%， PVC开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第一周，PVC下游平均开工率回升 17.11个百分点至17.11%，较去年农历同期减少6.34个百分点，目前春节假期刚结束，下游还未完全 复产。出口方面，节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取 消出口退税，预计PVC出口签单3月份处于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。 社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，上周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12 月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工 等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷， 房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期 货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节后现货成交清淡，节后PVC开工率增加，社会库 存继续增加，电石价格持续下跌，PVC价格承压。不过生态环境部表示将聚 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The plastics market is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream industries after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to stop profit and exit L-PP spread narrowing positions and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 3, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared with before the Spring Festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE decreased seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the downstream has not fully started yet. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and continued to decline after the Spring Festival. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The conflict in the Middle East has significantly boosted crude oil prices, which in turn has a significant impact on plastics. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. Recently, the plastics operating rate has slightly decreased. The domestic supply-demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to avoid involution. The L-PP spread has continued to decline, but after the US attacked Iran, the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the obstruction of Iranian polyolefin exports have a greater impact on PE. After the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic mulch gradually increases, and the L-PP spread has fallen to a low level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased in positions and oscillated upwards, with a minimum price of 6,976 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7,200 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 7,200 yuan/ton, above the 60-day moving average, with a gain of 5.99%. The position volume decreased by 68,551 lots to 436,928 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market rose across the board, with price changes ranging from +50 to +500 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,970 - 7,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7,600 - 10,310 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 8,290 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 3, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 91%, which is at a moderately high level [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared with before the Spring Festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE decreased seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the downstream has not fully started yet [4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 890,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $80/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $40/ton to $750/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price increased by $30/ton to $740/ton [4]

渐进入旺季，需求端季节性恢复。国内PE供需总体偏宽平衡，短期库存预计持续积累，不过库存压力不大 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 。短期L2605预计随国际油价震荡。 塑料产业日报 2026-03-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 209 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7175 | 94 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 209 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7183 | 112 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 1035216 | 71738 持仓量(日,手) | 436928 | -68551 | | | 1-5价差 | -25 | -115 5-9价差 | 17 | 97 | | | 9-1价差 | 8 | 18 期货前20名持仓 ...

2026 年 3 月 3 日 LLDPE：原油风险加剧，上游供应或有收缩 PP：C3 原料持续偏强，PDH 装置减量延续 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 聚烯烃基本面数据 | 期 货 | L2605 | | | | PP2605 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | 6991 | 5.97% | 1150643 | -60599 | 6998 | 5.85% | 1080548 | 8140 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 05合约基差 | -191 | | -167 | | -98 | | -111 | | | 05-09合约价差 | -80 | | -75 | | -22 | | -16 | | | 现货价格 | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨 ...