Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures market is stabilizing, with overall commodity sentiment positive. Supply may decline due to planned maintenance, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening, while non - alumina demand is improving but with limited price support. Spot prices may stabilize, and the downside of futures prices is limited [27]. - The PVC futures market is rebounding, driven by macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance this week, and demand from downstream products is slightly increasing. The cost side is providing bottom support, and it is expected to stop falling in the peak season from September to October [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and short - term demand has some support, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term [30]. - PTA's spot market liquidity is good, and the medium - term supply - demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and TA1 - 5 should be rolled in a reverse spread [30]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to reduce inventory in September but increase inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and use EG1 - 5 reverse spread [30]. - Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100 [30]. - Bottle - chip's supply increases slightly, and demand may decline. It mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be supported by the strong oil price and good macro - atmosphere, and BZ2603 should follow styrene to fluctuate strongly [35]. - Styrene's price is strongly supported but the upside is limited by high port inventory. EB10 should be bought at low prices, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread should be widened at low levels [35]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have rebounded in the past two days, driven by supply - side maintenance expectations. Demand is mainly supported by export and industrial needs, and the futures increase is mainly due to short - covering and expectation differences [39][40]. Methanol Industry - Methanol's supply in the inland is at a high level, and demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The inventory pattern is relatively healthy, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high - inventory reality and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be monitored [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - PP's PDH and propylene - purchasing profits are suppressed, with more unplanned maintenance and falling inventory, but the basis is still weak. PE's maintenance is at a relatively high level, with short - term low supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand for new orders is poor, and the market is in a state of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [45]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, which increased concerns about supply disruptions of Russian refined oil and crude oil. The market's focus has shifted to immediate supply risks, and the oil price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the options side after volatility increases [48] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 16, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 3.0%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 4.4%. The prices of East - China PVC increased, and the prices of related futures contracts also changed slightly [27]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%, while the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC decreased by 12.8% [27]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all increased slightly, and the start - up rates of downstream PVC products also increased [27]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 17.0%, and the total social inventory of PVC decreased slightly by 0.3% [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 16, the prices of most downstream polyester products increased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [30]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX price decreased by 0.2%, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 0.9% [30]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the processing fee of PTA's spot increased by 19.6% [30]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the basis of EG01 increased [30]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA all increased, while the start - up rate of pure - polyester yarn decreased [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3% [35]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene's East - China spot increased by 0.8%, and the cash flows of non - integrated and integrated styrene improved [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of some products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased, while the start - up rates of downstream PS and EPS increased [35]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: On September 16, the prices of urea futures contracts increased slightly, and the price of methanol futures decreased [39]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials of urea remained stable, and the estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry remained unchanged [40]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in different regions changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [40]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased by 3.44%, while the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [40]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [42]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol increased [42]. - **Methanol Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of upstream domestic enterprises and overseas exchanges decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - **Product Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [45]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [45]. - **Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [45]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 17, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and different types of crude oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts of refined oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [48].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a stabilization and slight rebound in domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] - Current trading logic in the crude oil market is driven by macroeconomic factors, increased supply surplus expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums [2] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production in October, contributing to expectations of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2: Polyethylene Production and Demand - Domestic polyethylene weekly production has slightly decreased due to maintenance at several petrochemical facilities, resulting in a significant increase in maintenance loss [3] - As of September 12, maintenance losses for domestic polyethylene reached 146,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [3] - The upcoming restart of several polyethylene facilities is expected to stabilize production levels, despite some facilities entering maintenance [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in the plastic end-user demand market [4] - Profit margins in the film and packaging film sectors have improved, with the domestic film industry showing a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [4] - The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries has increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [4]

Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is experiencing mixed performance, with overall revenue and net profit growth of 2.35% and 3.92% respectively in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - A total of 237 out of 436 listed chemical companies reported year-on-year net profit growth, with 124 companies exceeding 30% growth [4] Industry Performance - Non-metal materials, plastics, agricultural chemicals, and chemical products showed significant net profit growth, with increases of 21.1%, 19.77%, 14.66%, and 3.08% respectively [1] - Conversely, chemical fibers, rubber, and chemical raw materials faced declines in net profit, with decreases of -18.5%, -15.59%, and -2.73% respectively [1] - In the plastics sector, synthetic resins and modified plastics had notable net profit increases of 34.17% and 23.08% [2] - The agricultural chemicals sector saw exceptional growth in pesticides, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers, with net profit increases of 120.54%, 40.1%, and 13.25% respectively [2] - The chemical products sector also performed well, particularly in fluorine chemicals and food additives, with net profit growth of 89.53% and 37.98% [2] - The chemical raw materials sector had strong performers like other chemical raw materials and chlor-alkali, with net profit increases of 36.18% and 26.75% [3] Company Highlights - Notable companies such as Xinda Co., Su Li Co., and Lianhua Technology reported net profit growth exceeding 1000% in the first half of 2025 [4] - New and Cheng achieved a revenue of 11.1 billion yuan, a 12.76% increase, and a net profit of 3.6 billion yuan, a 63.46% increase [5] - Juhua Co. reported total revenue of 13.33 billion yuan, a 10.36% increase, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, a 146.97% increase [5] Institutional Research Focus - Institutional research is concentrated on identifying growth drivers for the second half of the year, R&D investment directions, sources of performance growth, overseas business development, and market value management [6][7] - Companies like New and Cheng are focusing on nutrition, flavoring, and new materials to enhance revenue [7] - Huami New Materials reported a 16.20% increase in R&D investment, focusing on automotive and aerospace sectors [7] - Companies are actively expanding overseas markets, with efforts in rail transit and rubber tape projects in Europe [8]

Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is experiencing mixed performance, with overall revenue and net profit growth of 2.35% and 3.92% respectively in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - Certain sub-sectors such as non-metallic materials, plastics, agricultural chemicals, and chemical products have shown significant net profit growth, while others like chemical fibers, rubber, and chemical raw materials have faced declines [1][2] Industry Performance - Non-metallic materials, plastics, agricultural chemicals, and chemical products saw net profit increases of 21.1%, 19.77%, 14.66%, and 3.08% respectively [1] - The plastics sector, particularly synthetic resins and modified plastics, reported net profit growth of 34.17% and 23.08% [1] - The agricultural chemicals sector, including pesticides and potassium fertilizers, experienced remarkable growth with net profit increases of 120.54% and 40.1% [1][2] - Conversely, the chemical fibers sector faced challenges, with net profit declines of -18.5% for chemical fibers and -15.59% for rubber [1][2] Company Performance - Among 436 listed companies in the chemical industry, 237 reported year-on-year net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with 124 companies exceeding 30% growth and 52 companies exceeding 100% growth [3] - Notable companies such as Xinda Co., Su Li Co., and Lianhua Technology achieved net profit growth exceeding 1000% due to low base effects from the previous year [3] - Major companies like Baofeng Energy and New Chemical achieved significant revenue and net profit growth, with New Chemical reporting revenues of 11.1 billion yuan, a 12.76% increase, and net profits of 3.6 billion yuan, a 63.46% increase [3][4] Research and Development Focus - Companies are increasingly focusing on R&D investments, with Huami New Materials reporting a 16.20% increase in R&D spending, primarily in automotive, high-speed rail, and aerospace sectors [5] - The company aims to enhance revenue through cost control and effective management of R&D expenditures [5][6] Market Expansion and Management - Companies like Sanwei Co. are actively expanding overseas markets, particularly in rail transit and rubber tape sectors in Europe [6] - Cangzhou Mingzhu emphasizes the importance of market management and sustainable development to enhance intrinsic value [6]

证券之星消息，9月16日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.09%，唯科科技领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3861.87，上涨0.04%。深证成指报收于13063.97，上涨0.45%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出3.81亿元，游资资金净流出8267.37万元，散户资金净 流入4.64亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605488 | 福莱新材 | 5988.34万 | 6.01% | -4238.50万 | -4.26% | -1749.84万 | -1.76% | | 300539 横河精密 | | 5528.62万 | 6.90% | 1050.01万 | 1.31% | -6578.63万 | -8.21% | | 002263 | 大矢南 | 4740.75万 | 4.38% | -3040.65万 | -2.81% | -1 ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the Chinese plastic and rubber machinery industry saw performance growth among 952 large-scale enterprises, with some companies achieving both revenue and profit increases [1] - Zhejiang Huaye Plastic Machinery Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 478 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%, and a net profit of 48.56 million yuan, up 10.24%, indicating stable profitability in its main business [1] - The company’s total assets reached 1.854 billion yuan, a 22.03% increase year-on-year, with cash reserves of 478 million yuan, accounting for 25.79% of total assets, providing a solid foundation for future capacity expansion and R&D investment [1] Group 2 - The company has established a strong market position with nearly 30 years of industry experience, collaborating with leading domestic manufacturers and successfully entering the supply chains of international companies [2] - Government policies supporting the manufacturing sector, particularly in smart and green manufacturing, are driving demand in the downstream plastic machinery industry, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [2] - Zhejiang Huaye aims to leverage its long-term partnerships with major manufacturers and its technological expertise to respond quickly to market demands and create substantial returns for investors [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为43.5%，环比增加.899个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.39%，环比减少4.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.48%，环比减少0.13个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开 工率为74.07%，环比增加.809个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价格占 优；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-420.96元/吨，亏损环比增加5.40%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 670.97元/吨，亏损环比增加6.80%，低于历史 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From September 5th to 11th, China's PE production decreased by 3.12% week-on-week to 612,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.51 percentage points to 78.04%. The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 1.1% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 3.9%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 8.03% to 487,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 2.44% to 546,600 tons, with little total inventory pressure [2]. - This week, some devices such as Jinghai Chemical and Guoneng Xinjiang will restart, and some devices such as Jilin Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical are planned to be shut down for maintenance. Production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month-on-month. The loss of PE device maintenance in September is expected to increase, but considering the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the industry's supply pressure is difficult to improve [2]. - The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders have increased sharply. The demand for packaging films is driven by domestic Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and overseas Christmas stocking, with room for order growth [2]. - In the short term, the impact of the Palestine - Israel and Russia - Ukraine geopolitical conflicts on costs is limited. OPEC+ production increases and the seasonal weakening of US fuel demand put pressure on international oil prices. Benefiting from the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. Technically, the daily K - line of L2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 7290 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene was 7,232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,252 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,269 yuan/ton, up 219 yuan [2]. - The trading volume was 264,026 lots, up 19,671 lots; the open interest was 554,975 lots, down 6,135 lots [2]. - The September - January spread was 37, up 156; the long position of the top 20 futures holders was 400,733 lots, up 1,699 lots; the short position was 442,335 lots, down 2,528 lots; the net long position was - 41,602 lots, up 4,227 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,221.3 yuan/ton, down 26.96 yuan; in East China, it was 7,322.38 yuan/ton, down 17.62 yuan [2]. - The basis was 52.3, up 13.04 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.43 US dollars/barrel, down 0.56 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 598.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.5 US dollars [2]. - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 851 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 51.3%, up 0.82 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 24.12%, up 3.94 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 6.41%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.3%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.75%, up 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.74%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, China's PE production totaled 612,800 tons, a 3.12% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of PE production enterprises was 78.04%, a 2.51 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period [2]. - From September 5th to 11th, the average operating rate of China's PE downstream products increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of September 10th, the inventory of China's PE production enterprises was 487,000 tons, a 8.03% increase from the previous period; as of September 12th, the inventory of PE social sample warehouses was 546,600 tons, a 2.44% decrease from the previous period [2].

证券之星消息，9月15日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.1%，杭州高新领涨。当日上证指数报收于3860.5， 下跌0.26%。深证成指报收于13005.77，上涨0.63%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 20.60 | -4.14% | 30.24万 | 6.31 Z | | 301565 | 中仑新材 | 66'52 | -3.28% | 12.58万 | 3.36 Z | | 688669 | 緊石化学 | 23.87 | -2.93% | 2.71万 | 6431.58万 | | 300995 | 奇德新材 | 50.83 | -2.90% | 2.60万 | 1.33亿 | | 300487 | 蓝院科技 | 53.82 | -2.76% | 4.68万 | 2.55 Z | | 688323 | 瑞华美 | 15.37 | -2.35% | 3.32万 | 5166.50万 | | 301003 | 江苏博云 | ...

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | | | 综 述 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 | 国产量 | 81 . | 40 | 78 . ...