2026 年 2 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转 弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6878 | -1.94% | 885291 | -7317 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -158 | | -154 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -41 | | -55 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6720 | | 6860 | | | | 东 华 | 6880 | | 7000 | | | | 华 南 | 6940 | | 7030 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货回落，上游前期库存转移，企业报价维持，代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕 ...

美国现在最有优势的是什么？在我看来，除了守着贸易卡点的美军，就是美元及其体系下的交易所，因此其才可以像揉面团一样，不断的拉扯市场，导致无 论是品种、市场、预期、抑或定价逻辑，基本都要靠大家去了几年的"美元"去最后呈现，万一跟不上了，还得修改规则，从后往前算去对齐，因此，大家一 定要明白，2026年和2025年可能会有很大的不同，其中的关键就是美元的方向！ 这种区别，在其实在前面的文章就已经详细解说了，比如BIS谈金银泡沫风险、特朗普谈房产价值、泰国抑制金银交易不得做空、水贝市场白银暴雷、最后 是沃什上任！无数的事情都是和大家在说：流动性方向要变，因为市场资产增值的方向逻辑要变！ 而沃什的"缩表怎么同步降息"很多人看不懂，实际上，要抛开利率本身去看，特朗普的房地产就可以对冲，配方我们也熟悉，简单说就是靠炒房拉经济，靠 利率压投机！ 并且，沃什认为扩表具有"等效降息"作用，每扩表一万亿美元相当于降息约50个基点，当前美联储资产负债表规模仍处于高位，缩表可剥离多余流动性，重 建货币政策可信度，进而锚定通胀预期，为后续降息铺路，说白了，就是要紧缩美元，但从房地产等地方去定向QE，做紧缩性宽松！ 那么，这些假设能完成， ...

道恩股份公告，为进一步拓展海外市场，提升公司持续发展能力，公司拟以自有或者自筹资金收购 Hwaseung Chemical Co., Ltd.和Hwaseung Vina Co., Ltd.持有的Hwaseung Chemical Vietnam Co.,Ltd.的塑料 和工程塑料化合物业务部门。卖方拟将现有公司的化合物业务部门以分立方式设立一家新公司，公司将 收购目标公司100%的股权。目标股权的暂定总购买价格为1573.7万美元，该价格是基于现有公司化合 物业务部门截至2025年6月30日的净资产与业务资产协商确定。转让价款最终金额根据公司在定价基准 日对目标公司资产负债情况进行审计后确定。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇2月2日丨道恩股份(002838.SZ)公布，公司拟以自有或者自筹资金收购Hwaseung Chemical Co., Ltd.和 Hwaseung Vina Co., Ltd.（合称"卖方"）持有的 Hwaseung Chemical Vietnam Co., Ltd.（一家根据越 南法律组建并存续的有限责任公司，简称"现有公司"）的塑料和工程塑料化合物业务部门（简称"化合 物业务部门"）。卖方拟将现有公司的化合物业务部门以分立方式设立一家新公司（简称"目标公 司"），并将目标公司 100%的股权（简称"目标股权"）转让给买方指定的全资子公司道恩高分子材料 （新加坡）投资有限公司。目标股权的暂定总购买价格为 15,737,000 美元（简称"基础价格"），该价格 是基于现有公司化合物业务部门截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的净资产与业务资产协商确定。转让价款最终金 额根据公司在定价基准日对目标公司资产负债情况进行审计后确定。 同日，公司与卖方 Hwaseung Chemical Co., Ltd.和Hwaseung Vina Co.,Ltd.签署了《股权转让协议》。鉴 于本次交易尚需获得国家有关部 ...

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 3.23% on February 2, with Zhongyan Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Bofei Electric (Code: 001255) with a closing price of 40.43, up 1.99% [1] - Guangchuan Co. (Code: 001333) with a closing price of 26.90, up 1.43% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Zhongyan Co. (Code: 688716) with a closing price of 38.31, down 8.13% [2] - Xiangyuan New Materials (Code: 300980) with a closing price of 34.42, down 7.00% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 708 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 419 million yuan [2] - The total trading volume for the plastic sector was significant, with individual stocks showing varied performance in terms of capital flow [3] Capital Flow Analysis - Key stocks with notable capital flow include: - Shangwei New Materials (Code: 688585) with a net inflow of 29.45 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Yinhui Technology (Code: 300221) with a net inflow of 17.20 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Conversely, stocks like Yuyue Technology (Code: 603879) experienced a net outflow of 10.02% from retail investors [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在70.60万吨，较上周增加1.02%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率85.35%，较上周期减少了0.68个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内上海石化、大庆石化、齐鲁石化等企业存在新增检修计划，新增检修装置虽有增加，不过多于周后期检修，存量检修装置陆续重启， | | | | 因此产能利用率环比上周减少。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.9%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.0%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.8%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期-1.8%。其中农膜 ...

证券代码：839979 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 PVC期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为4793元/吨,周五收盘价为5063元/吨，周涨幅为5.63% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨,环比增加2.70%;本周样本企 业产能利用率为78.93%,环比增加0.00个百分点;电石法企业产量34.716万吨,环比增加0.73%,乙 烯法企业产量13.611万吨,环比减少0.96%;本周供给压力有所增加;下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为44.75%,环比减少0.10个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为31. ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑偏 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 7014 | -0.50% | 880853 | -9081 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -154 | | -169 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -55 | | -55 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6860 | | 6880 | | | | 华东 | 7000 | | 6950 | | | | 华南 | 7030 | | 7030 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕龙 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights an increase in risk disturbances and potential market volatility due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which may trigger new tightening expectations [2][15][16] - The report indicates a slight contraction in micro liquidity, with domestic public fund equity positions estimated to decline, and seasonal demand for funds increasing as the Spring Festival approaches [3][24] - The report notes that while export performance remains strong, domestic demand continues to face challenges, with January exports expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year, while CPI and PPI are projected at 0.3% and -1.9% respectively [25][33] Group 2 - The report suggests a shift in industry allocation towards stability and certainty, reducing exposure to elastic assets and focusing on sectors with predictable performance [4][39] - The first main investment theme is the seasonal opportunity in infrastructure construction, emphasizing ten high-odds and high-win-rate sub-sectors, with a focus on an 18-stock portfolio of advantageous infrastructure companies [4][41] - The second main theme involves sectors with medium to long-term price increase trends, particularly storage, chemicals, and machinery, which are expected to benefit from improving demand and supply dynamics [6][40] - The AI industry chain remains a core long-term focus for 2026, although it may enter a phase of healthy adjustment in the short term, with potential cooling in previously overheated sectors like non-ferrous metals and military industry [6][40]

Key Insights on Infrastructure Investment Opportunities - A seasonal infrastructure construction boom occurs from the end of the Spring Festival to the conclusion of the National People's Congress, lasting approximately 1-1.5 months, presenting significant investment opportunities[2] - The report identifies 10 strong sub-sectors with high odds and win rates, including engineering consulting services, environmental equipment, environmental governance, general equipment, specialized engineering, non-metallic materials, new metallic materials, specialized equipment, decoration, and plastics, with average returns of 12-15% and excess returns of 4-8% over the past decade[2][10] Selected Stocks from Strong Sub-sectors - The report highlights a portfolio of 18 stocks selected from the 10 strong sub-sectors based on a scoring model, which includes: - Engineering consulting: Qidi Design (average excess return 22.7%, win rate 100%) and Jian Ke Yuan (average excess return 16.4%, win rate 100%)[3][19] - Environmental equipment: Xianhe Environmental (average excess return 11.7%, win rate 90%) and Senyuan Co. (average excess return 12.2%, win rate 80%)[3][20] - Environmental governance: Shanghai Washba (average excess return 36.0%, win rate 100%) and Dechuang Environmental (average excess return 19.1%, win rate 89%)[3][23] - General equipment: Jialitu (average excess return 35.3%, win rate 100%) and Jinyang Sun (average excess return 28.8%, win rate 100%)[3][26] Performance and Risk Considerations - The selected 10 strong sub-sectors have consistently shown high absolute and excess return probabilities, with a stable performance track record over the past decade[10][13] - Risks include limitations of comparative studies, market learning effects leading to volatility, unexpected market downturns, and individual stock risks impacting the overall portfolio[4]