金十数据7月4日讯，美股周四提前收盘，道指收涨0.7%，标普500指数涨0.8%，纳指涨超1%。科技股普 遍上涨，英伟达(NVDA.O)涨1.3%，盘中市值一度创历史最高，苹果(AAPL.O)涨0.5%。纳斯达克中国金 龙指数涨0.4%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)跌1.8%，小鹏汽车(XPEV.N)涨2.6%。 美股收盘：三大股指齐涨，英伟达涨超1% ...

美东时间7月2日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.02%； 标普500指数涨0.47%，创历史新高； 纳指涨0.94%，创收盘历史新高 。 当地时间7月2日，美国公布6月ADP报告（由美国自动数据处理公司发布的就业数据报告，通常被视为 非农就业数据的先行指标，被称为"小非农"）。私营部门就业人数6月减少3.3万人，创2023年3月以来 最大降幅，而预估为增加9.8万人。 | 新版 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 315.650 | 4.97% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 157.250 | 2.58% | | NVDA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.440 | 2.22% | | AAPL.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 179.760 | 1.61% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 491.090 | -0.20% | | MSFT.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in market dynamics on the first trading day of the second half of the year, with investors rotating from strong-performing tech stocks to defensive sectors like healthcare [1][5]. Market Performance - On the first trading day of the second half, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.82%, indicating a rotation away from tech stocks that had previously led the market [1]. - The AI-related stocks and other tech giants, including Sea Limited, Spotify, and Nvidia, experienced notable declines, with the tech giants index dropping by 1.15% [1][2]. Sector Rotation - The healthcare sector saw a strong rebound, with stocks like Amgen and UnitedHealth Group rising over 4%, and Merck increasing by more than 3% [12][13]. - The consumer discretionary sector also benefited from the rotation, particularly non-essential consumer goods, which had seen significant net selling earlier in the year [13]. Influencing Factors - The market rotation was influenced by several factors, including the start of a new quarter, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and profit-taking ahead of the non-farm payroll data release [5][10]. - Powell's remarks indicated a cautious stance on inflation and suggested that future actions would depend on data, contributing to market volatility [11]. Trading Dynamics - The trading day was characterized as a "violent" unwinding of momentum trades, with a significant sell-off in previously high-performing stocks [10]. - High-profile stocks that had been shorted, such as American Eagle Outfitters and Abercrombie & Fitch, saw price increases, while heavily held stocks like Ralph Lauren performed poorly [14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025, reaching historical highs but facing multiple uncertainties that could impact the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The direction of tariff policies remains a primary concern, with the potential for new market volatility as trade negotiations approach a critical deadline on July 9. Goldman Sachs estimates that even if some harsh tariffs are lifted, the actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 3% at the beginning of the year to 13%, which may continue to increase inflationary pressures and erode corporate profits [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings reports will be crucial, with S&P 500 companies expected to see a 5.9% growth in earnings, and investors will closely monitor how companies manage tariff-related costs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a significant market concern, with Chairman Powell indicating that inflation risks from tariffs are a key factor delaying interest rate cuts. However, the futures market anticipates three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first potentially in September [3] - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report will be a critical indicator, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could alter rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - The market is witnessing a shift in style, with technology stocks regaining dominance after an initial pullback. The S&P 500 technology sector led with a 15% increase in Q2, contributing nearly 40% of the index's gains. This concentration raises concerns, as the equal-weighted S&P 500 index only rose by 4%, indicating that most stocks did not keep pace with the leading companies [4] - For the market to maintain its upward trajectory, broader participation beyond the tech giants is necessary [4] Group 4: Valuation Pressures - Valuation pressures are significant, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22.2, well above the long-term average of 15.8. Investors are focusing on 2026 earnings expectations, which predict a 14% growth for S&P constituents, as this growth rate will be crucial for supporting valuations [7] - The direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also critical; if fiscal stimulus leads to concerns about deficits and yields spike, stock market valuations could face substantial pressure [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain a looming threat, with recent tensions in the Middle East causing temporary spikes in oil prices. Analysts warn that if conflicts escalate and disrupt oil supply, prices could exceed $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a chain reaction [9] - While historical data shows that geopolitical crises have limited long-term impacts on U.S. stock returns, short-term volatility is likely to increase [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in market dynamics on the first trading day of the second half of the year, with investors rotating from strong-performing tech stocks to defensive sectors like healthcare, driven by various factors including profit-taking and macroeconomic commentary from the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Market Dynamics - On the first trading day of the second half, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.82%, indicating a rotation away from tech stocks that had performed well in the first half of the year [1]. - The technology sector's seven giants index dropped by 1.15%, with notable declines in stocks like Sea Limited, Spotify, and Nvidia, which had been significant winners earlier [1][3]. - This marked the largest scale of momentum stock liquidation since January, with AI-related trades experiencing substantial sell-offs [1]. Factors Driving Market Rotation - The market rotation was influenced by the start of the third quarter, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and profit-taking ahead of the non-farm payroll data release [2][4][5]. - Investors were cautious and opted to lock in profits before the key employment report, contributing to the market's volatility [5]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector showed resilience, with managed care, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices recording gains of 2-3%, as it had underperformed relative to the S&P 500 at the end of the second quarter [8]. - The consumer discretionary sector also benefited from the rotation, with non-essential consumer goods being net sold the most among major brokerage accounts [8]. Comments from Federal Reserve - Powell's remarks indicated a cautious stance on inflation due to tariffs, suggesting that without tariffs, the Fed might have already cut rates again [6][7]. - His comments led to a significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly affecting long-term rates [7].

Group 1 - The first trading day of the second half of the year saw a significant shift in market sentiment, with investors rotating from strong-performing tech stocks to defensive sectors like healthcare [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.82%, indicating a divergence in sector performance [1] - Major tech stocks, including Sea Limited, Spotify, and Nvidia, experienced notable declines, with the tech giants index down by 1.15% [1][3] Group 2 - Market movements were influenced by the anticipation of trade agreements and the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension, which led to declines across major indices [2] - Goldman Sachs noted that the market rotation was driven by portfolio rebalancing at the start of the new quarter, as well as profit-taking ahead of employment data releases [2][5] - The technology sector ETF surged nearly 23% in the second quarter but fell by 0.9% on the first day of the third quarter, indicating a cooling interest in AI and tech stocks [3] Group 3 - Healthcare stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Amgen and UnitedHealth Group rising over 4%, contributing to the Dow's increase [8] - The healthcare sector's relative performance at the end of the second quarter was the lowest since 2001, making it particularly resilient during the market rotation [8] - Consumer discretionary stocks also benefited from the rotation, with non-essential consumer goods seeing significant net selling throughout the year [8] Group 4 - The market experienced its largest momentum stock liquidation since January, with AI-related trades facing substantial sell-offs, while previously underperforming stocks in tariffs and real estate surged [7] - Stocks that were heavily shorted, such as American Eagle Outfitters and Abercrombie & Fitch, saw significant gains, contrasting with the performance of heavily held stocks like Ralph Lauren [9]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance on July 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a four-month high, up 0.91% to 44,494.94 points [2][3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.11% to 6,198.01 points, while the Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 0.82% to 20,202.89 points [3] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla's stock dropping over 5%, bringing its market capitalization back below $1 trillion [3] - Other notable declines included Nvidia down nearly 3%, Meta down over 2%, and Microsoft down more than 1% [3] Banking Sector - Most bank stocks rose, with Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all increasing by over 1% [3] Energy Sector - Energy stocks collectively rose, with Schlumberger up over 4%, and both Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips rising by more than 2% [4] Airline Sector - Most airline stocks increased, with Southwest Airlines up over 3% and American Airlines up more than 2% [5] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a majority of stocks decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 0.7% [5] International Markets - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.2%, with notable gains in stocks like Huya Live up nearly 13% [5]

此外，美国银行全球研究部经济学家阿迪亚·巴韦（Aditya Bhave）在当天的报告中表示，由于关税政策 的影响，商品价格可能会在未来几个月继续上涨。巴韦进一步预测，未来关税可能会对美国经济造成更 大的影响，尤其是在商品价格上涨的背景下，预计还会有更多由关税推动的通胀。 美国总统特朗普的税收与支出法案也成为市场关注的焦点，该法案当日在参议院以51比50的微弱优势通 过，接下来将再次交由众议院审议和表决所修改的内容。随着特朗普对最高关税的90天豁免期即将结 束，投资者普遍认为市场可能会出现波动，尤其是特朗普的关税政策可能对美国经济产生更多影响。 根据美国供应管理学会（ISM）1日发布数据，2025年6月美国制造业景气指数为49.0，略高于预期的 48.8和前值48.5。尽管该数据仍低于50，表明制造业仍处于收缩状态，但此次收缩幅度较预期更为温 和。本次数据高于道琼斯的48.6，显示出制造业萎缩的速度略有放缓。 当天，股市在科技股和医疗保险类股的表现上出现了明显分化。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，主要受医疗 保健股的推动。投资者开始转向医疗保险行业，选择购买安进（Amgen）、联合健康（UnitedHealth） 等公 ...

美股三大指数收盘涨跌互现，纳指跌0.82%，道指涨0.89%，标普500指数跌0.11%。特斯拉跌超5%，奈 飞跌超3%，英伟达跌超2%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, S&P 500 up 0.52%, and Nasdaq up 0.47% [3] - The market sentiment was boosted by Canada's cancellation of the digital services tax and the resumption of trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Investors are awaiting potential agreements between the U.S. and its trade partners as the 90-day tariff grace period announced by Trump is set to expire next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising 2.03% and Nvidia up 0.15%, while Google, Amazon, and Tesla saw declines of 1.29%, 1.75%, and 1.84% respectively [5][6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, fell by 0.49%, with notable declines in JD.com, Pinduoduo, and NIO [6][7] Group 3: Oil Market - International oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 16 cents to $67.61 per barrel, attributed to easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and expectations of increased production from OPEC+ [9] - OPEC+ representatives indicated plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in August, following similar increases in previous months [9] Group 4: Political and Trade Developments - Elon Musk criticized the Republican "Big and Beautiful" bill, claiming it would increase the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion and suggested the need for a new political party [10] - President Trump indicated that Japan may soon face a 25% tariff on automobiles, emphasizing the unfairness of current trade practices and the significant trade deficit with Japan [12][13]