隔夜美股三大指数收跌，中概指数大跌2.17%。昨日低开低走的港股三大指数继续低开，恒指跌 0.32%，国指跌0.35%，恒生科技指数跌0.56%。大型科技股继续昨日跌势，百度、小米、阿里巴巴均跌 超1%；连续上涨的黄金股集体走低，汽车股、建材水泥股、消费电子概念股普跌。另外，港口及海运 股上涨明显，海丰国际大涨近15%，重卡股中国重汽涨4.4%。此外，果下科技首日上市高开89%。(格 隆汇) ...

盘面上，大型科技股普跌，阿里巴巴跌3.57%，腾讯控股跌2.11%，京东集团跌1.82%，小米集团跌 2.61%，网易跌0.82%，美团跌1.46%，快手跌4.45%，哔哩哔哩跌1.02%；芯片股下跌，华虹半导体跌超 6%，中芯国际跌超4%；黄金板块上涨，紫金黄金国际涨超7%，赤峰黄金涨超5%；生物医药板块普 跌，百济神州跌超8%。另外，内险股集体走高，消费利好政策持续推出，餐饮股、乳制品股等消费概 念股走俏。 企业新闻 中远海能(01138.HK)：与大连中远海运重工、扬州中远海运重工及广东中远海运重工就建造一艘乙烯船 和十八艘油轮订立造船合约，总代价为人民币78.82亿元。 众安在线(06060.HK)：前11月累计原保险保费收入总额约为人民币329.04亿元。 富力地产(02777.HK)：前11个月总销售收入约127亿元，同比增长24.63%。 12月15日，受上周五美股大跌影响，港股股指震荡调整，截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.34%报25628.88点， 恒生科技指数跌2.48%报5498.42点，国企指数跌1.78%报8917.7点，红筹指数跌0.62%报4124.66点。 恒瑞医药(01276)：HR ...

2025/12/14 20:50 BCA：美联储最友好政策遇上最窄涨幅——2026 年十大关键观点 | ZeroHedge 优质的 BCA：美联储最友善的政策遭遇最窄涨幅——2026 年⼗⼤关键观点 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉14⽇，星期⽇ - 凌晨3:00 由 Dhaval Joshi 通过 BCAResearch.com 撰写， " 朋友们的帮助让我嗨翻天， "披头⼠乐队唱道。这⾸列侬和⻨卡特尼的歌曲道出了2025年股市的真谛。与流⾏的说法相 反，推动股市的主要因素并⾮特朗普的贸易战，也不是⼈⼯智能的狂热。股市的主要驱动⼒是美国实际利率的波动（图表 1）。 2025年，在美联储的扶持下，股市⼤幅上涨。2026年，美联储若采取更加友好的政策，可能会推动股市进⼀步⾛⾼。 话虽如此，即使是最好的朋友也⽆法创造奇迹。进⼊2026年，股市进⼀步上涨⾯临的最⼤挑战是，此轮上涨⾏情是史上最为 集中的。 如今，全球股市三分之⼆的市值集中在美国股市，其中40%的市值⼜集中在⼗只股票上，⽽这⼗只股票的命运都押注于⼀个 赌注：它们都将成为⼈⼯智能浪潮的赢家。结果是，全球股市超过四分之⼀的市值直接⾯临这⼀赌注失败的⻛险。 因此 ...

Group 1 - Technology-themed funds have shown strong performance, with many ranking among the top ten in the past year, particularly highlighted by the Yongying Technology Smart Mixed Fund, which achieved a net value growth rate of 212.75% [2] - The gap between technology-themed funds and consumer-themed funds is significant, with a difference of over 240 percentage points in net value growth rates [2] - Market sentiment remains positive towards the AI sector, with expectations that the AI industry chain will continue to attract overseas orders and capital expenditures in the coming years [2] Group 2 - The stock market has seen significant interest in technology stocks, exemplified by the 425.46% increase in the stock price of Moore Thread on its listing day, reflecting a strong market sentiment [3] - There are differing opinions among fund managers regarding the narrative of AI for the upcoming year, with some expressing cautious optimism about the potential for new applications to emerge [4] - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios, shifting from computing power stocks to AI application-focused investments, indicating a strategic realignment in response to market conditions [5] Group 3 - Key areas of focus for the upcoming year include OCS technology and its supporting Scale-Up intelligent computing networks, AI application functionalities from internet companies, and the development of B-end vertical AI agents by 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - A recent report from BCA Research indicates that the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2026 may stem from the financial markets themselves, rather than an economic recession dragging down the stock market. The report suggests that a potential stock market crash could directly push the U.S. economy into recession, challenging conventional market views [1][2]. Economic Structure and Risks - The report highlights a significant structural change in the U.S. labor market, with approximately 2.5 million "excess retirees" whose consumption is closely tied to stock market performance. This group has retired early due to the pandemic and the subsequent stock market boom, creating a demand side that is sensitive to stock market fluctuations [1][3][5]. - The consumption of these retirees injects strong demand into the U.S. economy, but their retirement means they do not contribute to labor supply, leading to a constrained labor market. This situation creates a delicate balance where strong demand exists alongside limited supply, preventing a recession driven by weak demand [5][7]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - BCA Research outlines a dilemma for the Federal Reserve: maintaining a 2% inflation target while avoiding a recession. The report predicts that the Fed will prioritize preventing a market crash over its inflation target, potentially allowing inflation to rise above 2% and adopting aggressive rate cuts in response to any signs of economic or market weakness [2][8]. Market Concentration and Challenges - The report notes that the current market rally is historically concentrated, with about two-thirds of global stock market value concentrated in U.S. stocks, and 40% of that in just ten stocks. This concentration poses risks, as the fortunes of these stocks are heavily tied to the success of the generative AI narrative [9][11]. - However, there are signs of divergence among leading tech stocks, indicating that the market is not treating all tech stocks as a single entity. This divergence suggests that value investors are still assessing individual company valuations [11][12]. Investment Opportunities - BCA Research suggests that as the era of U.S. tech stocks outperforming the market may be coming to an end, funds could rotate into undervalued sectors and regions, such as healthcare and European markets. Unlike the U.S., Europe does not face inflationary pressures caused by labor market distortions, creating a favorable environment for the bond market [12].

一份来自华尔街的最新展望报告颠覆了传统认知，指出2026年美国经济面临的最大威胁可能源自金融市场本身。 根据投资研究机构BCA Research的最新展望，2026年投资者面临的核心风险已经发生反转：不再是经济衰退拖垮股市，而是股市的潜在崩 盘可能直接将美国经济推入衰退。这一观点挑战了市场的普遍看法，并指出美国经济的韧性正悬于一个由股市财富支撑的脆弱平衡之上。 BCA Research在报告中明确指出，当前美国经济的一个关键支撑来自于约250万"超额退休"人群的消费支出。这部分人群因新冠疫情后的 股市繁荣而提前退休，他们的消费能力与股市表现直接挂钩，形成了一个"对股市敏感"的需求侧。 报告分析，这种结构性变化给美联储带来了棘手的两难。一方面，这批高技能退休人员的离场加剧了劳动力短缺，使通胀顽固地维持在 3%左右；另一方面，若为抑制通胀而维持高利率，则可能刺破股市泡沫，摧毁这部分关键消费，从而引发经济衰退。 因此，BCA Research预测，美联储将把避免市场崩盘置于其2%通胀目标之上，选择容忍更高的通胀率，并可能在任何经济或市场疲软的 迹象出现时采取激进的降息措施。这一政策路径，叠加史上最集中的市场涨势，为 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlined China's economic direction for 2026, emphasizing a long-term positive trend and the need for confidence in facing challenges. Key tasks include focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform [2][7] - Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., known as China's "first solid-state battery stock," has initiated its IPO process on the A-share Growth Enterprise Market, aiming for large-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2027 [2][7] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high while the Nasdaq fell nearly 400 points due to concerns over tech stock valuations, particularly after Oracle's disappointing earnings report [2][7] Group 2 - Shandong Province has introduced a housing "old-for-new" policy to stimulate housing consumption, which includes various models for upgrading homes and enhancing financial support [3][8] - The price of Moutai has dropped below the psychological threshold of 1499 yuan, indicating a potential industry adjustment as demand weakens and the company faces challenges in returning to consumer markets [3][9] - Mexico's new law imposing tariffs of up to 50% on goods from countries without free trade agreements, including China, could impact Chinese industries such as automotive and textiles, prompting companies to adapt their supply chains [3][9] Group 3 - Many companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, have secured orders extending to 2028, indicating strong business growth prospects due to industry recovery and capacity release [4][10] - Recent adjustments to six major indices, including the CSI 300, will lead to corresponding changes in large-scale index funds, enhancing the representation of technology sectors and benefiting investors in advanced manufacturing [4][10] - SoftBank's investment in OpenAI has faced challenges, leading to a significant drop in its stock price and market capitalization, as concerns about profitability and competition from Google arise [5][10] - The Chinese film market is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, driven by successful domestic productions and an expanding "film +" ecosystem that enhances overall consumption [5][10]

盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨0.41%，收报3889.35点；深证成指涨 0.84%，收报13258.33点；创业板指涨0.97%，收报3194.36点。 沪深两市成交额达到 20922亿，较昨日放量2351亿。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 借力打力 老水看盘 中国平安再度创下新高。 今天盘中，平安最高价达 64.09 元/股，收盘价为 63.91 元 /股 ，不仅盘中创新高，收盘 价亦刷新纪录，涨幅约 2.2%。其稳健上涨直接带动保险板块走强，保险板块今天在金融板块 中表现最佳，涨幅达 1.55%，位居涨幅榜前列。值得关注的是，中国平安对上证指数的拉动 作用显著，一度成为上证指数的最大贡献股。事实上，上周五中国平安就已表现亮眼，直接推 动上证指数走出大幅反弹行情，连续两周助力指数走强，其表现值得关注。 中国平安之所以能有如此表现，主要有三方面原因：其一，行业获投行看好，某机构上周专门 发布研报予以肯定；其二，金融监管总局下调保险资金投资大蓝筹的风险因子，这为保险资金 入市提供了有力支撑，也让市场对保险公司的业绩增长抱有期待；其三，中国平安在保险板块 中今年涨幅不大，当前存 ...

港股科技股集体走强，商汤-W、地平线机器人涨超4%，小米集团-W、理想汽车-W、中兴通讯、美团- W等涨超2%，阿里巴巴-W涨1.59%。港股通科技ETF招商（159125）涨1.74%。 历史数据表明，在经历充分调整后，港股通科技指数往往展现出更强的弹性与爆发力。自2017年初至 2025年三季度末，港股通科技累计上涨209.77%，大幅跑赢港股通互联网同期25.03%涨幅。同时，在此 前的3轮周期性行情中，港股通科技指数的阶段涨幅均优于港股通互联网指数。 港股市场回购活跃度持续攀升。Wind数据显示，11月港股上市公司合计回购股份数量突破7亿股，较此 前数月显著放量。8月10月月度回购数量分别为2.6亿股、5.3亿股和5.3亿股。进入12月，回购活跃态势 得以延续，截至12月11日，本月累计回购数量已超过3.5亿股。 龙头公司回购力度尤为显著。腾讯控股在时隔一个月后，于11月18日重启回购，并保持每日回购节奏， 截至12月11日，区间累计回购114.43亿港元，年内累计回购金额724亿港元。 中银国际指出，面对日益复杂严峻的外部环境，2026年宏观政策将持续发力、适时加力。当前港股市场 估值水平仍具有吸引 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by short-term factors, while the fundamental outlook remains stable, presenting better value for investment in technology and dividend sectors, with a focus on core assets for medium to long-term allocation [2][4][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline of nearly 5% in the Hang Seng Index and close to 15% in the Hang Seng Tech Index since October [2]. - Factors contributing to the market pullback include fluctuations in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, concerns over valuation bubbles in the AI sector, and seasonal liquidity pressures as year-end approaches [4][5]. - Despite the market's volatility, there has been a continuous inflow of capital from mainland investors, indicating a strong long-term allocation interest in Hong Kong stocks [5] . Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment has made Hong Kong stocks more attractive in terms of valuation, with a favorable window for investment emerging [6][7]. - Key sectors identified for investment include healthcare, technology, cyclical stocks benefiting from supply-demand changes, and dividend-paying stocks that align with insurance capital investment strategies [10][11]. - The healthcare sector is expected to benefit from policy support for innovative drugs, while the technology sector is poised for growth driven by AI applications and favorable monetary policy [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to experience a dual boost from improved fundamentals and valuations, supported by domestic policies and external monetary easing from major economies [7]. - The AI trend is expected to continue driving growth in the technology sector, with significant upside potential for quality blue-chip stocks in the internet and healthcare domains [10][11].