宏观 2026 年 1 月 28 日 2025 年 12 月工业企业利润数据点评 利润结构向中游转移 证券分析师 事项： 2025 年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982.0 亿元，比上年增 长 0.6%。 平安观点： 风险提示：稳增长政策落地效果不及预期，海外经济衰退，地缘政治冲突升级等。 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 报 告 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 2025 年 12 月工业企业利润增长加快，量、价、利润率同步改善。2025 年 12 月，工业企业利润同比由 11 月下降 13.1%转为增长 5.3%，回升 18.4 个百分点，恢复较快。拆分量、价和利润率：2025 年 12 月工业增 加值增速较上月抬升 0.4 个百分点至 5.2%，PPI 同比增速较上月提升 0. ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Shaanxi province is set to accelerate investment in key areas, focusing on effective investment expansion and optimizing fixed asset investment structure, with industrial investment expected to grow by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall investment growth by 12.2 percentage points [1] Group 1: Investment Growth - Industrial investment in Shaanxi is projected to increase by 9.4%, contributing 3.1 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] - Mining industry investment is expected to grow by 3.6%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to total investment [1] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to rise by 13.3%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to total investment [1] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply is forecasted to grow by 6.2%, contributing 0.5 percentage points to total investment [1] - Industrial technological transformation investment is expected to maintain a robust growth rate of 6.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Private Investment - Private investment in Shaanxi is projected to grow by 4.6%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to total investment [1] - Industrial private investment is expected to increase by 11.3%, contributing 4.3 percentage points to total private investment [1] - Manufacturing private investment is anticipated to grow by 10.3%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to total private investment [1] - Infrastructure private investment is forecasted to rise by 5.5%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to total private investment [1] Group 3: Equipment and High-tech Investment - Equipment and tool purchase investment is expected to grow by 16.4%, exceeding overall investment growth by 19.2 percentage points, contributing 1.8 percentage points to total investment [2] - High-tech industry investment is projected to grow by 4.4%, surpassing overall investment growth by 7.2 percentage points [2] - High-tech manufacturing investment is expected to increase by 18.1%, exceeding overall investment growth by 20.9 percentage points, with electronic and communication equipment manufacturing investment growing by 40.3% [2] Group 4: Livelihood Investment - Investment in wholesale and retail is projected to grow by 58.9% [2] - Investment in the agricultural and food processing industry is expected to increase by 26.5% [2] - Investment in accommodation and catering is anticipated to rise by 20.9% [2] - Forestry investment is expected to grow by 17.4% [2] - Investment in electricity and heat production and supply is projected to increase by 5.7% [2] - Investment in the education sector is expected to grow by 4.7% [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, reversing a three-year decline trend [1][2] Group 1: Profit Growth and Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 5.0%, a significant rebound of 8.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector experienced a profit growth of 9.4%, while the mining sector faced a decline of 26.2% [2] - In December 2025, profits for industrial enterprises above designated size rose by 5.3% compared to November, recovering 18.4 percentage points from a previous decline [2] Group 2: Improvement in Various Business Entities - Profits for small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises, turned positive, with growth rates of 1.4% and 4.2% respectively, compared to declines of 1.9% and 1.7% in 2024 [2] - Profits for joint-stock enterprises and state-controlled enterprises showed significant improvement, with reductions in profit decline narrowing by 3.5 and 0.7 percentage points respectively compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Inventory and Economic Outlook - By the end of December 2025, the inventory of finished goods was 6.73 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.9% increase, but a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from November 2025 [3] - The easing of inventory pressure indicates signs of marginal demand recovery, with expectations for continued profit recovery in 2026 driven by stable demand and reduced price declines [3] Group 4: Structural Optimization of Industrial Profits - The profit structure of industrial enterprises is further optimized, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing a profit increase of 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [4] - The share of equipment manufacturing profits in total industrial profits reached 39.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous year [4] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3%, surpassing the overall industrial profit growth rate, with significant contributions from smart electronic products and related industries [4] Group 5: Traditional Industries and New Growth Drivers - Traditional industries are experiencing quality upgrades, with profits significantly exceeding the industry average, particularly in the chemical sector [5] - Specific sectors such as biochemical pesticides and cultural information chemicals saw profit increases of 20.7% and 15.2%, respectively, outperforming the average profit growth in the chemical industry by 28.0 and 22.5 percentage points [5]

国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，2025年，各地区各部门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策， 加快推进新型工业化，推动工业经济稳定向好运行。全年工业企业利润实现增长，扭转了连续3年下降 态势，其中装备制造业、高技术制造业等新动能支撑作用明显，传统产业利润结构持续优化，工业经济 发展质效不断提升。 本报北京1月27日讯（记者熊丽）国家统计局数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982亿元，比上年增长0.6%。从三大门类看，制造业增长5.0%，增速较2024年大幅回升8.9个百分点； 电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.4%；采矿业下降26.2%。2025年12月份，规模以上工业企业 当月利润由11月份下降13.1%转为增长5.3%，回升18.4个百分点。 多类经营主体利润有所改善。2025年，在全国规模以上工业企业中，中小型企业、外商及港澳台投资企 业利润增速由负转正，全年利润较上年分别增长1.4%、4.2%，2024年分别为下降1.9%、1.7%；股份制 企业、国有控股企业利润改善明显，全年利润降幅分别较上年收窄3.5个、0.7个百分点。 高技术制造业为工业高质量发展注入强劲动力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, reversing a three-year decline trend [1] Group 1: Profit Performance - The profit of state-controlled enterprises was 20,561 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The profit of joint-stock enterprises was 55,408.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% [1] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw profits rise to 17,447.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% [1] - Private enterprises maintained profits at 22,810.6 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The mining industry experienced a profit decline of 26.2%, totaling 8,345.1 billion yuan [1] - The manufacturing sector's profits grew by 5.0% to 56,915.7 billion yuan [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw profits increase by 9.4%, reaching 8,721.2 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Monthly Trends - In December 2025, profits for industrial enterprises rebounded by 5.3% from a 13.1% decline in November, marking an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector's profits increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3] - The share of equipment manufacturing profits in total industrial profits rose to 39.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous year [3] Group 4: High-tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing profits surged by 13.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 12.7 percentage points [4] - The smart consumer electronics sector saw profits grow by 48.0%, with specific industries like smart drones and smart vehicle equipment experiencing profit increases of 102.0% and 88.8%, respectively [4] - The semiconductor industry also showed significant growth, with profits in integrated circuit manufacturing increasing by 172.6% [4] Group 5: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries are showing improved profitability, with sectors like biochemical pesticides and cultural information chemicals seeing profits rise by 20.7% and 15.2%, respectively [5] - In the chemical fiber and power sectors, profits from bio-based chemical fiber manufacturing and biomass power generation increased by 88.6% and 47.9%, respectively [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as foreign-invested enterprises, reported profit growth of 1.4% and 4.2%, respectively, reversing previous declines [5] Group 6: Overall Economic Outlook - The overall profit growth of industrial enterprises indicates a significant support from new industrial dynamics, with a focus on technological and industrial innovation [6] - Challenges remain due to external environmental changes and the need for continued structural optimization and new productivity cultivation [6]

● 本报记者 连润 数据显示，2025年12月末产成品存货6.73万亿元，增长3.9%，较2025年11月末回落0.7个百分点。中国 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，库存增速回落，表明在销售改善带动下库存压力有所缓解，需求边际 修复迹象显现。 "2026年，工业企业利润有望延续修复。"温彬分析，需求端稳中向好，物价端降幅收窄，加之新型工业 化与产业升级推动投资和技术改造，工业企业经营环境和利润率预计逐步改善，利润将由阶段性修复向 温和增长过渡。 工业企业利润结构进一步优化 "规模以上工业企业利润实现增长，工业新动能的支撑作用明显，工业经济发展向新向优。"于卫宁说。 装备制造业为工业向优升级提供坚实支撑。于卫宁表示，2025年，规模以上装备制造业利润较上年增长 7.7%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点，是对规模以上工业企业利润增长拉动作用最 强的板块。规模以上装备制造业利润占全部工业企业利润的比重达39.8%，较上年提高2.6个百分点，工 业企业利润结构进一步优化。从行业看，装备制造业的8个大类行业中有7个行业利润较上年增长。 高技术制造业为工业高质量发展注入强劲动力。于卫宁表示，2025年，规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's industrial profits showed a positive growth of 0.6%, reversing a three-year decline, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries, indicating an improvement in the structure of traditional industries and overall industrial economic quality [1][2][6]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year [1]. - December 2025 saw a monthly profit increase of 5.3%, recovering from a 13.1% decline in November, indicating a significant rebound [2]. - The profit growth trend for industrial enterprises is expected to continue into 2026, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing industrial economic growth [1][6]. Group 2: Cost and Revenue Analysis - In 2025, the cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.31 yuan, an increase of 0.16 yuan year-on-year, while expenses per 100 yuan of revenue decreased to 8.62 yuan, down 0.02 yuan [3]. - The average collection period for accounts receivable decreased to 67.9 days by the end of December 2025, reflecting improved cash flow management [3]. Group 3: Profit Structure Improvement - In 2025, profits from small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as foreign-invested enterprises, turned positive, growing by 1.4% and 4.2% respectively [4]. - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 5.0%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being the main drivers of profit growth [4][5]. - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 13.3%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial profit growth, with specific sectors like smart electronics and semiconductors experiencing substantial profit increases [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industrial sector is expected to maintain a recovery trend in 2026, driven by stable domestic consumption, recovering investment, and improved export quality [6][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has prioritized consolidating the positive momentum of industrial economic growth for 2026, focusing on stabilizing key industries and regions [8].

Core Insights - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, the first positive annual growth since 2022 [1] - The manufacturing sector contributed 56,915.7 billion yuan in profits, with a growth rate of 5.0%, significantly rebounding by 8.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - December 2025 saw a monthly profit increase of 5.3% for industrial enterprises, reversing a 13.1% decline in November, representing an 18.4 percentage point recovery [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's profit growth was primarily driven by the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries, which saw profit increases of 7.7% and 13.3% respectively [6] - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [6] Factors Influencing Profit Recovery - Key factors for the profit recovery in December included a significant rebound in production, increased external demand and export delivery values, and structural improvements in upstream and midstream industry prices [5] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returning to expansion and signs of inventory replenishment also contributed to improved profitability [5] Outlook for 2026 - The economic driving logic in China is shifting from a reliance on real estate and infrastructure to a focus on broad fiscal spending, which is expected to support infrastructure investment and domestic demand recovery [7] - The anticipated policy resonance between China and the U.S. could boost global demand for industrial metals and improve prices, potentially leading to a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [8] - In 2026, sectors likely to experience rapid growth include technology innovation and advantageous manufacturing areas, particularly those driven by AI technologies such as smart driving and humanoid robotics [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 企业利润"开门红"在望 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 总的来看，年末外需走强带动下，工业企业利润增长动能不弱。2026 年 1 月，在春节错位下， 出口的量仍有望维持较好增长，领先出口数据的 Vizion 订舱量同比增速明显回升。外需承托下， 企业利润增长并无近忧，但 2 月出口面临高基数后，增长动能仍待察。内需方面，政策发力推 动投资止跌回稳的信号在逐步释放，在服务消费支持政策尚未有明确框架的前提下，增量政策 更多集中在企业投资领域，短期思路或优先推动投资止跌回稳。在内需和外需双重发力下，一 季度有望实现企业利润的"开门红"。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 企业利润"开门红 2] "在望 《眼前的税收，远方的通胀 • ——宏观周脉"博"系列 2》2026-01-18 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Sum ...

Core Viewpoint - December saw a decline in revenue for industrial enterprises, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while profits improved with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, marking a significant turnaround from the previous month's -13.1% [2][11] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - The profit margin growth in December was a key support for the overall profit improvement, with a notable recovery in profit rates [11][16] - The revenue decline was slightly offset by a narrowing of price drag, but overall revenue contraction still impacted profitability [11][16] - The year-on-year profit growth of 5.3% in December was a significant increase of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018 [11][14] Group 2: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB since late 2025 has led to a return of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales differences indicating a trend towards repatriating profits [5][11] - The expectation of RMB appreciation has historically been associated with an increase in the ratio of bank foreign exchange settlement differences to trade balances, reaching 25.9% in 2025, the second-highest since 2015 [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [6][14] - In December, the mining, raw materials, and processing assembly industries saw improvements in profit, while the consumer goods manufacturing sector continued to face pressure [14][16] - The high-tech manufacturing sector reported a profit growth of 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points [14] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - The nominal inventory growth rate declined to 3.9% in December, with actual inventory growth also falling, indicating weak domestic demand [9][17] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector is actively reducing inventory, while the equipment manufacturing sector is primarily focused on replenishing stock, reflecting the contrasting performance of these industries [9][17] - The production turnover days for industrial enterprises decreased to 19.9 days, suggesting ongoing operational pressures despite seasonal improvements in sales rates [17]