国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月12日 铁矿石周度观点 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观风偏显著回调，估值承压 | | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 条 目 全球发货量 | 当周值 3279 | 0 | 环 比 -196 | 4 | 同 比 297 | 8 | 全球发货 | 40W2025 123475 | 1 | 40W2024 122196 | 7 | 累计同比 1278 | 4 | 1 | 累计同比% 0% | | | | 澳发货量 | 1902 | . 3 . | . -45 . | 4 | . 136 . | 7 | 澳发货 ...

现在，对以色列的反制，实际上是在削弱美国在中东的霸权根基。中东国家已经清楚地认识到，美国在犹太势力的深度影响下，内外政策越来越不顾及长远 利益。即便是有2万美军驻扎的国家，也能被以色列反复轰炸。沙特、阿联酋等"有钱无兵"的国家，单靠美国的安全承诺已经不再安全可靠。随着犹太势力 愈加肆无忌惮，伦理道德和国际法则都被忽视，寻找一个更可靠的新伙伴，成为了中东国家的明智之选。 对中国来说，这一切意味着，只要削弱美国的国际信用，就等于为人民币国际化铺平道路。将美国的影响力赶出中东，打破"美国无敌"的神话，中国就有机 会争取到全球货币的主导权。 这场博弈从来都不是单一领域的较量，而是军事、文化、外交等多方面的"组合拳"。特朗普对此选择沉默，而埃及部署红旗-9导弹后，以色列除了嘴上愤怒 外，实际上没有采取行动。像埃及、沙特这样的国家，不是以色列能够轻易对付的。而以色列对卡塔尔的打击，背后其实有着计算：卡塔尔与伊朗、什叶派 的关系较近，并非传统海合会成员，尽管有钱也是美国的盟友，但轰炸它不会引发过多的反弹。 然而，即便如此，美国依旧迫使以色列道歉，因为这次冲突让美国的国际信誉大跌，美元的信用也受到严重冲击，甚至连安全承诺都变 ...

Core Insights - BHP and China Mineral Resources Group have reached an agreement to settle iron ore transactions in RMB starting Q4 2025, marking a significant shift in pricing power in the global iron ore market [1][4] - This agreement is a crucial step towards the internationalization of the RMB, particularly in commodity trading [1][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China accounts for approximately 75% of global iron ore demand, while 82% of Australia's iron ore exports are directed to China, which constitutes about 5% of Australia's GDP [3] - Historically, iron ore pricing has been dominated by sellers, with transactions conducted in USD, leading to higher costs for Chinese buyers [3][6] - BHP's production cost for iron ore is reported at $19 per ton, yet long-term contract prices were set at $109.5 per ton, highlighting the disparity in pricing [3] Group 2: Strategic Changes - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group has consolidated major domestic steel and mineral companies, enhancing China's bargaining power in negotiations with global miners [3][4] - The Chinese government has implemented a ban on purchasing BHP iron ore priced in USD, marking a significant policy shift [4][6] Group 3: Implications for Future Transactions - The acceptance of RMB for iron ore transactions eliminates the need for currency conversion, reducing exchange rate risks and simplifying the transaction process [6][7] - This move not only lowers costs for Chinese steel companies but also signals a shift in China's role from a passive buyer to an active player in global pricing [6][7] - The decision is expected to enhance the RMB's status in the global financial system and reduce reliance on the USD [7]

7天前，澳大利亚还摆出了一副"你爱买不买"的强硬姿态，结果却在短短几天内突然转变，开始接受用人民币结算铁矿石交易，这一举动让全球都感到震 惊。那么，这究竟是澳大利亚妥协得太快，还是中国的反击力度太大？必和必拓（BHP）的"点头同意"不仅仅是一种贸易上的让步，更像是对中国经济战略 的间接认可。 这场铁矿石结算方式的争议背后，其实有很多深层次的因素值得我们关注。它不仅仅是一次贸易纠纷，更涉及了贸易战术、金融博弈和话语权的争夺。短短 七天的变化，其实是中澳之间长期博弈的集中爆发。 首先，澳大利亚实在离不开中国市场，这绝不是一句空话。铁矿石是澳大利亚出口的支柱产业，而中国恰恰是全球最大的铁矿石买家，占据了澳大利亚铁矿 石出口的六成以上。假如中国暂停采购，像必和必拓这样的大型矿业公司库存将迅速增加，现金流也会迅速吃紧。企业不仅无法获得利润，甚至可能面临裁 员的风险。在这种情况下，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯在记者会上表达了复杂的心情，表示希望尽快解决争端，恢复互信。他的表态一方面是在安抚国内的企 业，另一方面也像是向中国递出了橄榄枝。 更让澳方头疼的是，中国近年来在铁矿石进口上已经不再依赖澳大利亚，进口渠道变得更加多元。除了 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the financial performance of Jinling Mining for the first three quarters, showing a revenue increase of 12.98% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 47.09% [1] - The company attributes its growth to increased sales of iron concentrate, reduced production costs, and improved performance of by-product copper concentrate [3] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Jinling Mining achieved a revenue of 478.80 million yuan, up 17.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 70.17 million yuan, up 0.25% year-on-year [1] - Year-to-date, the company reported total revenue of 1.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 220.47 million yuan [1] - The basic and diluted earnings per share for the third quarter were both 0.1179 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.26% [1] Profit Distribution - Jinling Mining announced a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 29.77 million yuan [3] Industry Context - The report also mentions that Daoshi Technology, a competitor, reported a significant revenue increase of 18.84% and a net profit increase of 408.27% for the third quarter, indicating a strong performance in the new materials sector [6] - The overall market trend shows that 30 companies have released positive earnings forecasts for the first three quarters, with 14 companies expecting a net profit increase of over 100% [6]

港口堆积如山的铁矿石在烈日下泛着红褐色的光泽，货轮停泊在锚地，却无法卸货这是2025年10月初中国沿海港口的真实场景。 一周前，中国矿产资源集团向全国钢厂下达指令：暂停采购所有以美元计价的必和必拓铁矿石，包括已在途的船货。 短短十天内，全球最大矿业巨头必和 必拓从强硬拒绝到低头妥协，宣布接受人民币结算。 中国每年进口超过11亿吨铁矿石，占全球海运贸易量的75%，但长期受制于西方主导的定价体系。 普氏指数作为铁矿石定价基准，由少数机构报价生成， 其背后股东包括必和必拓等矿业巨头。 这种既当运动员又当裁判员的机制，导致中国钢厂被迫接受高价：澳大利亚铁矿石开采成本仅10-15美元/吨，对华售价却超过100美元。 必和必拓2024年总收入556亿美元，其中347亿美元来自中国；而中国600多家钢厂平均利润率不足5%，部分企业甚至亏损运营。 究其根源，在于过去国内 采购权分散，多家钢厂各自为战，被国际矿企分而治之。 中国矿产资源集团成立，整合宝武、鞍钢等大型钢企的采购需求，形成统一谈判主体。 从此，买方市场从"多对少"转为"一对一"，中国首次握紧拳头应对 国际卖家。 其次，中国开辟多元化供应渠道。 非洲几内亚的西芒杜铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dramatic shift in BHP's stance from a hardline position to compromise on RMB settlement reflects China's assertiveness in the global iron ore market, challenging the longstanding dominance of USD pricing in commodity trade [1][11]. Group 1: Market Reaction - China's directive to halt the purchase of BHP's USD-priced iron ore led to significant market turmoil, with Singapore iron ore futures experiencing a 1.8% increase and BHP's stock price dropping over 6%, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $10 billion [3][11]. - The immediate impact of the directive caused chaos at Australian ports, with ships already en route being forced to return, leading to a surge in insurance claims [3][5]. Group 2: Contract Negotiations - The breakdown of long-term contract negotiations was a key trigger for the crisis, as BHP insisted on a price of $109.5 per ton for 2025, a 15% increase from the previous year, while spot prices had fallen to around $80 [3][11]. - China's decision to suspend USD purchases was a strategic move to leverage its position as a major importer, with over 1.2 billion tons of iron ore imported annually, of which 60% of BHP's revenue comes from this segment [11][12]. Group 3: Shift to RMB Settlement - BHP's eventual acceptance of RMB settlement for approximately 30% of its iron ore trade with China marks a significant breakthrough for the internationalization of the RMB in commodity transactions [11][12]. - The agreement, effective from Q4 2025, aims to mitigate risks associated with USD exchange rate fluctuations and could lead to further RMB-based long-term contracts if market acceptance continues to grow [11][12]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The shift towards RMB settlement is indicative of a broader restructuring of global trade dynamics, with BHP's compromise prompting other major producers like Vale and Indian mining companies to explore similar arrangements [16][17]. - China's diversified supply strategy, which includes securing iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and Russia, enhances its bargaining power and reduces reliance on USD-denominated transactions [18][19].

Group 1 - The rise of China has been closely linked to the steel industry, starting from the establishment of Baosteel in the late 1970s, which utilized Japanese technology and Australian iron ore to produce steel products that fueled significant global economic growth [2] - By the early 21st century, China became Australia's largest customer for steelmaking raw materials, with iron ore from Pilbara supplying steel furnaces in Tangshan [2] - Despite the low iron ore prices, Australian mining giants like BHP and Rio Tinto have remained profitable, while Chinese steel mills have faced prices consistently above $80 per ton over the past decade [2] Group 2 - Beijing has long attempted to shift the pricing power balance by funding overseas mines and establishing pricing benchmarks, but these efforts have seen limited success [2] - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) in 2022 aims to negotiate collectively with major global mining companies to enhance China's influence in the market [2] - Recent disputes between CMRG and BHP over iron ore pricing indicate that CMRG is testing its strength in negotiations without jeopardizing relationships with mining companies [2] Group 3 - Although CMRG maintains a dominant market position, with China purchasing about three-quarters of seaborne iron ore last year, this position is becoming increasingly precarious [3] - India is experiencing a construction boom and is developing its own steel supply chain, which poses a competitive threat to China's dominance in the iron ore market [3] - Geopolitical factors are increasingly affecting trade, leading to higher costs and risks associated with shipping routes [3] Group 4 - Domestically, China is shifting from large-scale economic stimulus projects in construction and heavy industry to advanced manufacturing and services, resulting in reduced demand for steel [4] - While CMRG may assist China in making more informed procurement decisions, it cannot fully mitigate the deeper underlying impacts of this shift [5]

Core Insights - Jinling Mining reported revenue and net profit growth for the first three quarters of 2025, marking the first quarterly report in A-shares for the year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Jinling Mining achieved revenue of 1.25 billion yuan, an increase of 12.98% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, up 47.09% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 479 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.78% [2] - The net profit for Q3 was 70.17 million yuan, showing a modest increase of 0.25% year-on-year [2] - The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters was 0.3703 yuan, a 47.06% increase compared to the previous year [2] Operational Highlights - The growth in performance was attributed to increased sales of the main product, iron concentrate, a decrease in unit production costs, and a rise in both volume and price of by-product copper concentrate [3] - The company announced a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 29.77 million yuan [3] Industry Context - Following Jinling Mining, Dao Technology also released its Q3 report, showcasing even more significant growth in revenue and net profit [4] - Dao Technology reported Q3 revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.84%, and a net profit of 185 million yuan, up 408.27% [6] - The new materials sector, particularly in lithium battery materials and carbon materials, is experiencing robust growth, contributing to the positive performance of companies in this field [6] - As of October 10, 30 companies had released Q3 performance forecasts, all indicating positive growth, with 14 companies expecting net profit increases of over 100% [6][7]

Group 1: Iron Ore Trade Dynamics - Australia unilaterally raised iron ore prices by 15%, which China rejected, leading to China's decision to suspend imports from Australia [1] - China's request for iron ore transactions to be settled in RMB was also rejected by Australia, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions [1] - The iron ore industry is dominated by a few major players, similar to the grain market, with Australian companies like Rio Tinto and BHP controlling significant resources [1][3] Group 2: Historical Context and Financial Implications - Between 2003 and 2009, Chinese companies overpaid approximately 700 billion RMB (around 100 billion USD) for iron ore imports from Australia, despite the low extraction costs [3] - The cost of iron ore shipping can reach up to 60 million USD per shipment, emphasizing the financial stakes involved in the trade [3] - China's establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group aims to consolidate domestic steel producers and enhance negotiation power in the iron ore market [3][4] Group 3: Recent Developments - BHP has agreed to settle iron ore transactions with China in RMB starting from Q4 2025, indicating a shift towards closer economic ties between Australia and China [4] - The long-term investment in projects like the Western Australia iron ore project by CITIC Group illustrates the challenges and high costs associated with mining investments [4] Group 4: Broader Agricultural Trade Context - The shift in China's soybean imports from the US to Argentina reflects changing trade dynamics and the impact of geopolitical tensions on agricultural markets [5][6] - The dominance of major grain companies in the market has led to significant challenges for local farmers, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [5][6][8]