- The "All-Weather Timing Model" detected positive signals, including significant volume increases and upward breakthroughs of multiple moving averages for the Wind All A Index, CSI 800 Index, and Fund Heavyweight Stock Index, indicating a potential end to the recent market pullback and the possibility of an upcoming upward trend [1][7] - The "Cycle Analysis Model" suggests that the market remains in an upward monthly trend since 2024, supporting the hypothesis that the recent pullback phase has concluded and a new upward phase may begin [1][7] - The "Industry Four-Wheel Drive Model" indicates that recent bullish signals are slightly biased toward technology growth sectors, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, which have shown a slight increase in transaction volume proportion [2][7]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is more focused on "structural adjustment," suggesting a potential for a structural market trend in the upcoming year [4][6][26] - Historical patterns show that years emphasizing "stabilizing growth" typically lead to stronger market performance, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap and value stocks over growth stocks [2][10] - Conversely, years focused on "structural adjustment" tend to exhibit market volatility, with large-cap stocks remaining flat while small-cap stocks weaken [2][10] Summary by Sections Historical Performance Post-Central Economic Work Conference - The report categorizes past conferences into two themes: "stabilizing growth" and "structural adjustment," with specific years identified for each theme [1][2] - Years with a "stabilizing growth" focus include 2014, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024, characterized by economic slowdowns and policies aimed at maintaining stability [1][2] - Years emphasizing "structural adjustment" include 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2023, where the focus was on addressing structural issues and risks [2] Market Behavior and Style Preferences - In "stabilizing growth" years, the market index typically strengthens, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks and value stocks outperforming growth stocks [2][10] - In "structural adjustment" years, the market tends to be more volatile, with large-cap stocks showing flat performance and small-cap stocks declining [2][10] Industry Performance Insights - The report notes that the focus of the Central Economic Work Conference influences the following year's market trends, with specific industry policies guiding investment directions [3][4] - For instance, the emphasis on "innovation-driven" policies in 2012 led to a TMT boom in 2013, while the focus on "new consumption" and "new infrastructure" in 2018 shaped market trends in 2019 [3] 2025 Conference Insights - The 2025 conference highlights a "supply strong, demand weak" scenario, indicating a need to balance supply and demand dynamics [4][6] - The report suggests that monetary policy will prioritize economic stability and reasonable price recovery, which could lead to improved corporate profitability if inflation expectations rise [6] - Expanding domestic demand is a key focus, with policies aimed at increasing consumer income and stabilizing investment to counteract previous declines in fixed asset investment growth [6] Market Outlook and Sector Allocation - The report anticipates a structural market trend in 2025, with specific sectors recommended for investment, including AI applications, semiconductor, and renewable energy sectors [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy developments to inform investment strategies in the upcoming year [7]

Group 1 - The global equity market is characterized by a "two-eight" differentiation, with a significant number of stocks in various countries experiencing declines, while A-shares show a more uniform upward trend [29] - Leading sectors in the market include technology and resources/energy, driven by the acceleration of the AI industry cycle and the revaluation of resource prices [33] - The concentration of market capitalization in major countries has reached new highs, with the top 10 companies in many markets accounting for 30%-50% of total market capitalization [41] Group 2 - A/H shares are currently at a historical low valuation compared to US stocks, providing a substantial margin of safety for investors [49] - The profitability of A-shares has shown signs of stabilization, with a notable contribution from technology-related sectors and external demand [17] - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to see an influx of foreign capital, driven by the depreciation of the US dollar and improving fundamentals in A-shares [66] Group 3 - The AI sector remains a key investment theme, with significant opportunities in both domestic and overseas supply chains [85] - The electric power sector is experiencing a turnaround, with demand recovery and capacity clearance improving asset turnover rates [57] - The copper market is closely tied to global manufacturing trends, with its performance expected to correlate with the PMI index [58]

Core Viewpoint - Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) has been consistently viewed negatively, with a year-to-date decline of over 23% despite the initial hype surrounding the company [1] Company Analysis - The company has faced a significant pullback in its stock price, indicating potential challenges in maintaining investor confidence [1] - The focus on momentum in the technology sector suggests that the company may struggle to regain traction amidst market volatility [1] Industry Context - The technology landscape is currently influenced by various factors, including the AI boom and historical market events such as the dot-com bubble and the credit default crisis of 2008, which may impact investor sentiment towards companies like Arqit [1]

事 件 点 评 绎，迎接跨年行情 ——中央经济工作会议点评 | 策 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 政策表态释放积极信号，大盘有望继续向上演 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 略 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绎，迎接跨年行情 | 究 | | | | | | | | | | | | ——中央经济工作会议点评 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：熊越（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340524080001） | | | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22118627 | 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn | 年 | 月 | 日 | 2025 | 12 | 12 | | | | | | 分析师：叶子沛（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340525070001） | | | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周沪指震荡调整，全周市场交投活跃度仍保持高位，量能均 超 1.7 万亿元，周一及周五更是站上两万亿。从周 K 线来看，上证 指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，科创 50 指数上涨 1.72%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.79%。个股板块跌多涨少， 通信、国防军工、电子、机械设备和电力设备等板块涨幅靠前，煤 炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产和纺织服饰等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡盘升 从本周市场来看： 首先，12 月中央政治局会议和中央经济工作会议相继召开，为 2026 年经济工作定向。 其次，11 月出口延续强韧性，CPI 同比涨幅继续修复。 最后，美联储如期降息 25 个基点，本次议息会议的基调中性 偏鸽。 总体来看，本周沪指震荡调整，全周市场交投活跃度仍保持高 位，量能均超 1.7 万亿元，周一及周五更是站上两万亿。从海外环 境来看，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降息 25 个基点至 3.50%-3.75%， 为年内第三次降息。此次议息会议的基调中性偏鸽，但会后点阵图 显示 202 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance in early trading, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (Huashan, 159285) rising by 0.97% and the Food and Beverage ETF (516900) increasing by 0.69% [1] - The technology sector remains active, with the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588290) up 55.66% year-to-date and the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) up 57.23% year-to-date as of December 11 [1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the importance of domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption [1] - The conference plans to expand the supply of quality goods and services, optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [1] - The conference also aims to stabilize investment, increase the scale of central budget investments, and effectively stimulate private investment through new policy financial tools [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the Chinese consumer market is complex and diverse, presenting new opportunities, with significant growth potential for both new consumption enterprises and leading traditional consumer companies [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted a clear divergence in micro-enterprise profitability, primarily concentrated in high-growth sectors such as TMT and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, indicating a structural recovery driven by new economy sectors [2]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储年内三次降息，中国资产正迎来全球资金的青睐。摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11 月，境外长线资金今年以来通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票。 多家外资机构表示，中国经济展现出韧性，市场估值具备吸引力，且政策环境持续优化，推动海外 长线资金加速回流中国股市。从配置方向看，外资重点关注科技成长、资源品、基本面改善行业及 高股息板块。 海外资金回流中国市场 伴随美联储年内三次降息，海外资金呈现出积极流入中国资产的态势。 摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11月，境外长线资金今年以来通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约 100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票，与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜明对比。 高盛最新发布的全球资金流向报告显示，在截至12月3日的一个月中，中国内地股票基金获得 58.46亿美元净流入，规模超过韩国、印度等市场。 海外中国ETF今年以来也持续"吸金"。富途数据显示，截至12月9日，中国海外互联网ETF- KraneShares资产规模为89.14亿美元，相较于去年年底的54.1 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to fully tap into economic potential and stabilize the birth population as key policy directions, indicating a clear intention to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [5][7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as the primary direction for policy in 2026, with an emphasis on both goods and service consumption, as well as increased infrastructure investment to stabilize the real estate market [7][8] - The report indicates that innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new productive forces will remain major policy directions, with a call for deeper integration of technological and industrial innovation [7][8] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, potentially driving the onset of a spring market rally, supported by expectations of economic recovery and profit restoration [8][11] - Specific industries such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military, new energy, and new consumption are identified as likely beneficiaries of the favorable policy environment [11] - The report highlights that sectors related to innovation, such as TMT and machinery, are expected to benefit from the emphasis on innovation-driven policies and high-quality development of key industrial chains [11]

2025 年 12 月 11 日 策略类●证券研究报告 美联储降息进一步催化春季行情开启 事件点评 投资要点 事件：美联储近日宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点。 对 A 股行业配置的影响：科技和周期等行业可能受益。（1）科技成长和部分周期 行业短期可能受益于美联储降息。一是复盘历史，美联储降息周期中，产业趋势上 行或高景气的行业相对占优。二是当前来看，科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占 优：首先，以人工智能和机器人为代表的科技产业趋势在中短期可能持续上行；其 次，受益于涨价和新材料需求上升的有色金属、化工等部分周期行业景气度持续上 升。（2）美联储降息下，短期建议关注：一是产业趋势上行的 TMT、商业航天、 机器人、电新、创新药等科技行业；二是高景气的有色金属和化工等周期行业。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及预期。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 定 调 积 极 ， ...