1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

新华社权威速览|中央财办十问十答，一起来学习！ 一问:经济形势怎么看? 中央经济工作会议指出,2025 年是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压 前行、向新向优发展,展现强大韧性 和活力。 预计全年经济增长5%左右、继 续位居世界主要经济体前列,经济 总量有望达到140万亿元左右。 我们要直面问题、正视挑战, 看到这些大多是发展中的、转型中 的问题,绕不开、躲不过,经过努 力是可以解决的。 活跃的要素流动和创新为发展 持续注入新动能,人流、物流、信 息流、资金流保持较快增长态势, 投资和消费增速明年有望恢复,产 业转刑升级加快 利达和产业创新 ● ● e P 工 + 土 / 进入成果集中爆发阶段,我国经济 发展前景是十分光明的。 二问:宏观政策如何发力? 根据中央经济工作会议部署,明 年我国继续实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策。在政策取向上,坚持稳中求 进、提质增效。 明年继续实施更加积极的财政 政策。政策力度上,保持必要的财 政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。 既着眼当前,用好用足财政政策空 间,也为应对未来风险留有余地, 确保财政可持续。 四问:聚焦三大国际科技 CI HTCD/LT- 过去几年北京、上海、粤港澳大 湾区 ...

工商银行 中国人寿 紫金矿业 中国移动 中国海油 长飞光纤 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 7.81 0.02 0.26% 1.03% 0.64% 0.39% 0.00% 0.39% 0.64% 1.03% 7.71 7.74 7.76 7.79 7.82 7.84 7.87 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 195万 391万 586万 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 15.72 乙 | 14.29 乙 | 30.01亿 | | HK 09988 | | | +1.43 乙 | | 长飞光纤 ... | 11.11亿 | 9.09亿 | 20.20亿 | | HK 06869 | | | +2.031Z+ | | 腾讯控股 | 8.25 亿 | 6.15 亿 | 14.40 乙 | | HK 00700 | | | +2.10 乙 | | :: | 5.25亿 | 9.10亿 | 14.35 乙 | | HK 00883 | | | -3.8 ...

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4%[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw a rebound with 69,000 jobs added, driven mainly by the education and healthcare sectors[4][6] - The service production sector contributed significantly, with 50,000 jobs added in November, while the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs[8] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate of 4.6% in November is the highest in nearly four years, indicating challenges in the labor market[14] - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to upward pressure on the unemployment rate due to limited job absorption capacity[14] Wage Trends - Average wage growth has slowed, with service sector wages increasing by approximately 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure from wages[20] - The goods-producing sector's wages remain relatively high at around 4.0% year-on-year, but show signs of stabilization[20] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market slightly raised expectations for a rate cut in January, with a 26% probability noted[23] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data and inflation trends[23]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 每当12月临近，投资者都期待华尔街策略师能提供具有操作性的交易建议。本周，花旗研究部的全球宏 观经济策略团队正是这样做的。 花旗策略师提出了一系列交易建议，并对美联储利率政策和铝产量等市场相关话题进行了预测。 在推荐的交易中，有一项是利用杠杆押注人工智能（AI）交易将继续推动纳斯达克100指数走高。该团 队建议，投资者可以买入将于2026年12月到期的该指数虚值看涨期权。 他们表示，只要资本投资继续增长，且金融系统的流动性保持充裕，投资者就有足够的时间在AI泡沫 膨胀的过程中继续乘势而上。 他们所描述的并非简单的轮动，而是在牛市进入第4年之际，市场呈现出一种看涨的普涨态势。该团队 认为，金融股的表现应优于属于防御性板块的消费必需品股，并建议超配金融股，低配消费必需品股。 "我们认为周期性股票在通胀复苏的经济环境中会有出色表现，"该团队在谈到通胀和经济增长速度双双 回升的情景时如是说。 花旗的下一个主题带来了一丝警示。威尔及其团队指出，美股和债券在中期选举年通常表现疲软。此 外，这种疲软往往出现在第3季度。当执政党继续掌权 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strength with a rebound in trading volume, with major indices rising significantly on December 17, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19% to close at 3870.28 points, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.39% [5] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.83 trillion yuan, up from 1.75 trillion yuan the previous day, indicating a strong profit-making effect with 3623 stocks rising and 1634 stocks falling [5] Stock Market Analysis - The listing of Muxi Co., the second domestic GPU stock, significantly boosted the technology sector, with its stock price soaring by 693% to 829.90 yuan per share, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding 330 billion yuan [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are recommended for balanced allocation, supported by the central government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a priority for 2026 [6] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market experienced a comprehensive rise, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.63% to 112.140 yuan [11] - The central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan, maintaining a loose liquidity environment, with Shibor rates for short-term maturities mostly declining [11] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate leading the gains at 7.61%. The price of lithium carbonate reached 108,620 yuan per ton due to supply constraints [11] - Precious metals experienced a broad increase, with platinum and palladium prices hitting the limit up, driven by global liquidity expectations and domestic gold reserve increases [11] Trading Hotspots - The report highlights several key sectors for investment, including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with a focus on their growth potential and market dynamics [12][14] - The central economic work conference's direction and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to enhance liquidity and support investment in consumer and technology sectors [12]

Core Viewpoint - The market showed strong performance in the afternoon, particularly in the technology sector, with the Guozheng Growth 100 Index rising by 5.1%, indicating a robust interest in growth-style investments [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index increased by 5.1%, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rose by 1.2%, and the Guozheng Value 100 Index went up by 0.8% [1]. - The trading volume for the Growth ETF (159259) reached approximately 130 million yuan, significantly higher than previous days, reflecting active market participation [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index focuses on A-share stocks with a strong growth style, with over 70% of its weight concentrated in the electronics, communications, and computer sectors, aligning with the core areas of AI computing power [1]. - The Growth ETF (159259) is the only product tracking this index, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on growth-style investments [1]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index consists of 100 stocks, with the information technology and materials sectors accounting for over 65% of the index, highlighting a significant emphasis on technology [3]. - The Guozheng Value 100 Index, which tracks 100 value-style stocks, has over 65% of its weight in consumer discretionary, financial, and industrial sectors, with consumer discretionary having a high proportion [3]. - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index includes 100 stocks with high free cash flow levels, with industrial, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors making up over 70%, combining high dividends and growth potential [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various effective and accessible complaint channels for consumers beyond the official 12315 hotline, highlighting the importance of these alternatives in protecting consumer rights [1][7]. Group 1: Industry Regulatory Complaint Channels - Complaints related to specific industries can be addressed directly to the relevant regulatory bodies for more professional and quicker responses [2][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) provides a complaint platform for telecommunications issues, where complaints can be submitted via their official website or by calling 12300, ensuring high response rates from telecom operators [2][11]. - The State Post Bureau's complaint website is the most efficient channel for issues related to express delivery, with results directly impacting the assessment of delivery companies [9][12]. - Financial disputes involving banks, insurance, and securities can be addressed to financial regulatory bodies, such as the National Financial Supervision Administration, through their official websites or local offices [9][12]. Group 2: Internet Platform Complaint Channels - Internet platforms, particularly those operated by large companies, have emerged as convenient and rapid avenues for consumer complaints, especially among younger demographics [3][13]. - The Black Cat Complaint platform exemplifies a comprehensive online consumer dispute resolution platform, allowing users to submit complaints easily through various digital channels, including its website and mobile applications [3][13]. - The platform features a transparent and visual complaint tracking system, enabling users to monitor the progress of their complaints and receive notifications at each stage [4][14]. - Black Cat Complaint also aggregates collective complaints against the same business, increasing visibility and pressure on companies to respond [4][14]. Group 3: Consumer Association Organizations - Consumer associations, such as the China Consumers Association, play a unique role in resolving disputes due to their public trust and non-binding mediation results [6][15]. - Consumers can file complaints through phone, mail, or official websites, and associations may organize mediation between consumers and businesses [6][15]. - For significant or widespread issues, consumer associations can issue warnings, support litigation, or even initiate public interest lawsuits against unscrupulous businesses [6][15]. Group 4: Choosing and Combining Channels - For clear, small, and evidence-supported disputes, internet platforms like Black Cat Complaint should be prioritized for their quick response mechanisms [10][16]. - For issues requiring specialized industry adjudication, regulatory complaint channels are often the most effective [10][16]. - In cases involving significant rights or illegal activities, consumers should report through the 12315 platform to initiate administrative enforcement [10][16]. - Seeking social support and public opinion through consumer associations can be effective for typical issues or unreasonable industry practices [10][16]. Group 5: Conclusion - The modern consumer rights protection landscape has developed into a multi-layered and comprehensive network of channels, providing consumers with more options and empowerment in defending their rights [17].

Employment Trends - In October, the U.S. added 105,000 non-farm jobs, a significant drop from September's 108,000, but rebounded to 64,000 in November, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in nearly four years, up from 4.44% in September[8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the job market[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to see growth and unemployment rates stabilize by 2026, with inflation initially declining before rising again[2] - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in June as a political gesture, with inflation potentially rebounding in the second half of the year[2] - The labor participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.5%, with the broader U6 unemployment rate rising to 8.7%[8] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and education services, while manufacturing jobs continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month[8] - Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, maintained rapid growth in October, indicating consumer resilience[2] - The service sector's PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed showed a slow recovery, suggesting ongoing demand for labor[2]

格隆汇12月17日｜据港交所文件，摩根大通所持有的赣锋锂业(1772.HK)H股空头持仓在12月12日由 2.36%降至1.73%。 ...